Entwicklung und Validierung einer Skala der Bereitschaft zu verzeihen (SBV)

Verzeihen dient der Bewältigung von Kränkungen und zwischenmenschlichen Konflikten. Es werden Definitionen und Operationalisierungen aus dem englischen Sprachraum vorgestellt. Die Entwicklung eines deutschsprachigen szenarienbasierten Instruments zur Erhebung der Bereitschaft zu verzeihen wird beschrieben. Es wird eine Differenzierung des Konstruktes in zwei Komponenten vorgeschlagen: (a) die Bereitschaft, anderen Menschen zu verzeihen, wenn diese ihre Tat bedauern, (b) die Bereitschaft, anderen Menschen zu verzeihen, wenn diese ihre Tat nicht bedauern. Die Messeigenschaften der neu entwickelten Skala wurden in fünf Studien an insgesamt 1824 Probanden untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das Instrument gute psychometrische Eigenschaften besitzt. Die theoretische Differenzierung des Konstrukts wird empirisch bestätigt. Hinweise auf die Konstruktvalidität der Skala ergeben sich aus Zusammenhängen mit theoretisch einschlägigen Referenzkonstrukten: der habituellen Ärgerneigung, der Wahrnehmung und Klarheit über eigene und fremde Gefühle, positiver und negativer Affektivität, den fünf Persönlichkeitsfaktoren und sozialer Erwünschtheit. Für die Konstruktvalidität der Skala sprechen ferner konvergente Korrelationen mit anderen Maßen der Bereitschaft zu verzeihen.

Detecting outlying studies in meta-regression models using a forward search algorithm.

When considering data from many trials, it is likely that some of them present a markedly different intervention effect or exert an undue influence on the summary results. We develop a forward search algorithm for identifying outlying and influential studies in meta-analysis models. The forward search algorithm starts by fitting the hypothesized model to a small subset of likely outlier-free studies and proceeds by adding studies into the set one-by-one that are determined to be closest to the fitted model of the existing set. As each study is added to the set, plots of estimated parameters and measures of fit are monitored to identify outliers by sharp changes in the forward plots. We apply the proposed outlier detection method to two real data sets; a meta-analysis of 26 studies that examines the effect of writing-to-learn interventions on academic achievement adjusting for three possible effect modifiers, and a meta-analysis of 70 studies that compares a fluoride toothpaste treatment to placebo for preventing dental caries in children. A simple simulated example is used to illustrate the steps of the proposed methodology, and a small-scale simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Biomarkers of pulmonary hypertension in patients with scleroderma: a case-control study.

INTRODUCTION Significant pulmonary vascular disease is a leading cause of death in patients with scleroderma, and early detection and early medical intervention are important, as they may delay disease progression and improve survival and quality of life. Although several biomarkers have been proposed, there remains a need to define a reliable biomarker of early pulmonary vascular disease and subsequent development of pulmonary hypertension (PH). The purpose of this study was to define potential biomarkers for clinically significant pulmonary vascular disease in patients with scleroderma. METHODS The circulating growth factors basic fibroblast growth factor, placental growth factor (PlGF), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), hepatocyte growth factor, and soluble VEGF receptor 1 (sFlt-1), as well as cytokines (interleukin [IL]-1β IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, IL-13, tumor necrosis factor-α, and interferon-γ), were quantified in patients with scleroderma with PH (n = 37) or without PH (n = 40). In non-parametric unadjusted analyses, we examined associations of growth factor and cytokine levels with PH. In a subset of each group, a second set of earlier samples, drawn 3.0±1.6 years earlier, were assessed to determine the changes over time. RESULTS sFlt-1 (p = 0.02) and PlGF (p = 0.02) were higher in the PH than in the non-PH group. sFlt-1 (ρ = 0.3245; p = 0.01) positively correlated with right ventricular systolic pressure. Both PlGF (p = 0.03) and sFlt-1 (p = 0.04) positively correlated with the ratio of forced vital capacity to diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO), and both inversely correlated with DLCO (p = 0.01). Both PlGF and sFlt-1 levels were stable over time in the control population. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrated clear associations between regulators of angiogenesis (sFlt-1 and PlGF) and measures of PH in scleroderma and that these growth factors are potential biomarkers for PH in patients with scleroderma. Larger longitudinal studies are required for validation of our results.

Antiplatelet therapy duration following bare metal or drug-eluting coronary stents: the dual antiplatelet therapy randomized clinical trial

IMPORTANCE Despite antirestenotic efficacy of coronary drug-eluting stents (DES) compared with bare metal stents (BMS), the relative risk of stent thrombosis and adverse cardiovascular events is unclear. Although dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) beyond 1 year provides ischemic event protection after DES, ischemic event risk is perceived to be less after BMS, and the appropriate duration of DAPT after BMS is unknown. OBJECTIVE To compare (1) rates of stent thrombosis and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; composite of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke) after 30 vs 12 months of thienopyridine in patients treated with BMS taking aspirin and (2) treatment duration effect within the combined cohorts of randomized patients treated with DES or BMS as prespecified secondary analyses. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS International, multicenter, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial comparing extended (30-months) thienopyridine vs placebo in patients taking aspirin who completed 12 months of DAPT without bleeding or ischemic events after receiving stents. The study was initiated in August 2009 with the last follow-up visit in May 2014. INTERVENTIONS Continued thienopyridine or placebo at months 12 through 30 after stent placement, in 11,648 randomized patients treated with aspirin, of whom 1687 received BMS and 9961 DES. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Stent thrombosis, MACCE, and moderate or severe bleeding. RESULTS Among 1687 patients treated with BMS who were randomized to continued thienopyridine vs placebo, rates of stent thrombosis were 0.5% vs 1.11% (n = 4 vs 9; hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% CI, 0.15-1.64; P = .24), rates of MACCE were 4.04% vs 4.69% (n = 33 vs 38; HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.57-1.47; P = .72), and rates of moderate/severe bleeding were 2.03% vs 0.90% (n = 16 vs 7; P = .07), respectively. Among all 11,648 randomized patients (both BMS and DES), stent thrombosis rates were 0.41% vs 1.32% (n = 23 vs 74; HR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.19-0.50; P < .001), rates of MACCE were 4.29% vs 5.74% (n = 244 vs 323; HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.62-0.87; P < .001), and rates of moderate/severe bleeding were 2.45% vs 1.47% (n = 135 vs 80; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients undergoing coronary stent placement with BMS and who tolerated 12 months of thienopyridine, continuing thienopyridine for an additional 18 months compared with placebo did not result in statistically significant differences in rates of stent thrombosis, MACCE, or moderate or severe bleeding. However, the BMS subset may have been underpowered to identify such differences, and further trials are suggested. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00977938.

Actions of the International Union of Soil Science towards a global agenda for the sustainable use of soils

In a multi-level stakeholder approach the international level is of primordial importance not only in terms of legal frameworks, but also in terms of scientific analysis of the needs, options and constraints, as well as related to monitoring and evaluation systems. The Working Group on 'International Actions for the Sustainable Use of Soils' (IASUS) of the International Union of Soil Science (IUSS) identified a number of issues and measures in preparation of the 17thWorld Congress of Soil Science held in Bangkok, Thailand, in August 2002, and prepared a resolution in support of a 'global agenda for the sustainable use of soils', which was adopted on 21st August 2002 on the closing day of the congress.

Prevalence of Subclinical Rheumatic Heart Disease in Eastern Nepal

Importance: Although rheumatic heart disease has been nearly eradicated in high-income countries, 3 in 4 children grow up in parts of the world where it is still endemic. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of clinically silent and manifest rheumatic heart disease as a function of age, sex, and socioeconomic status and to estimate age-specific incidence. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this school-based cross-sectional study with cluster sampling, 26 schools in the Sunsari district in Eastern Nepal with 5467 eligible children 5 to 15 years of age were randomly selected from 595 registered schools. After exclusion of 289 children, 5178 children were enrolled in the present study from December 12, 2012, through September 12, 2014. Data analysis was performed from October 1, 2014, to April 15, 2015. Exposures: Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics were acquired in a standardized interview by means of a questionnaire customized to the age of the children. A focused medical history was followed by a brief physical examination. Cardiac auscultation and transthoracic echocardiography were performed by 2 independent physicians. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rheumatic heart disease according to the World Heart Federation criteria. Results: The median age of the 5178 children enrolled in the study was 10 years (interquartile range, 8-13 years), and 2503 (48.3%) were female. The prevalence of borderline or definite rheumatic heart disease was 10.2 (95% CI, 7.5-13.0) per 1000 children and increased with advancing age from 5.5 (95% CI, 3.5-7.5) per 1000 children 5 years of age to 16.0 (95% CI, 14.9-17.0) in children 15 years of age, whereas the mean incidence remained stable at 1.1 per 1000 children per year. Children with rheumatic heart disease were older than children without rheumatic heart disease (median age [interquartile range], 11 [9-14] years vs 10 [8-13] years; P = .03), more commonly female (34 [64.2%] vs 2469 [48.2%]; P = .02), and more frequently went to governmental schools (40 [75.5%] vs 2792 [54.5%]; P = .002). Silent disease (n = 44) was 5 times more common than manifest disease (n = 9). Conclusions and Relevance: Rheumatic heart disease affects 1 in 100 schoolchildren in Eastern Nepal, is primarily clinically silent, and may be more common among girls. The overall prevalence and the ratio of manifest to subclinical disease increase with advancing age, whereas the incidence remains stable at 1.1 per 1000 children per year. Early detection of silent disease may help prevent progression to severe valvular damage.

Cardiovascular disease risk factors in Hispanic children identified through a diabetic proband

Prevalence and mortality rates for non-insulin dependent (Type II) diabetes mellitus are two to five times greater in the Mexican-American population than in the general U.S. population. Diabetes has been associated with risk factors which increases the likelihood of developing atherosclerosis. Relatives of noninsulin dependent diabetic probands are at increased risk of developing diabetes; and offspring of diabetic parents are at greater risk. Elevation in risk factor levels clearly began to develop prior to adulthood. Therefore an excess of these risk factors are expected among offspring and relatives of diabetics.^ The purposes of this study were to describe levels of risk factors within a group of Mexican American children who were identified through a diabetic proband, and to determine if there was a relationship between risk factor levels and heritability. Data from three hundred and seventy-six children and adolescents between the ages of 7 and 13 years, inclusively, were analyzed. These children were identified through a diabetic proband who participated in the Diabetes Alert Study. This study group was compared to a representative sample of Mexican American children, who participated in the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.^ For females, there were statistically significant associations between upper body fat distribution and increased systolic and diastolic blood pressure after adjusting for age and measures of fatness. Body mass index was positively related to and explained a significant portion of the variability in systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and HDL-cholesterol, for males only. No relationship was found between degree of relationship to the diabetic proband and risk factor levels. The most likely explanations for this were insufficient sample size to detect differences, and/or incomplete ascertainment of pedigree information.^ Although there was evidence that these Mexican American children are fatter and have more central fat distribution than non-Hispanic children, there is no evidence of increased risk for diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease at these ages. ^

Conocimiento y participación : ¿Qué democracia?

Un nuevo ímpetu por la recolección de información parece estar ganando terreno, tal vez heredero del "movimiento de los indicadores sociales". Este movimiento fue un legado de quienes apoyaban la cuantificación en las Ciencias Sociales, en la medida que los números se creían objetivos y científicos per se y la información se consideraba un derecho ciudadano. El estudio de la sociedad en sus múltiples dimensiones ha estimulado la búsqueda y construcción de indicadores e índices estadísticos. Sin embargo, el interés por contar con mejores formas de estudiar el progreso social ha conducido, muchas veces, a un uso inadecuado de indicadores y medidas. El PBI, por ejemplo, ha sido frecuentemente tomado como un indicador de bienestar. Pero la carencia de un marco conceptual para el estudio del bienestar no es el único problema, ni siquiera el más importante. Una significación similar -o aun mayor- la tiene la escasa competencia estadística de periodistas, hacedores de políticas públicas y -en general- la ciudadanía. En conjunto, estos elementos coadyuvan a limitar el uso de los datos en el debate público. En este artículo abordo el cambio desde la aritmética política hacia los modernos reportes sociales (par. 1); el éxito de la cuantificación en la administración del Estado (par. 2); los usos inadecuados de la cuantificación (par. 3); la actual no utilización de la cuantificación y la búsqueda de condiciones contextuales que interfieren en la transformación de la información en conocimiento (par. 4)

Conocimiento y participación : ¿Qué democracia?

Un nuevo ímpetu por la recolección de información parece estar ganando terreno, tal vez heredero del "movimiento de los indicadores sociales". Este movimiento fue un legado de quienes apoyaban la cuantificación en las Ciencias Sociales, en la medida que los números se creían objetivos y científicos per se y la información se consideraba un derecho ciudadano. El estudio de la sociedad en sus múltiples dimensiones ha estimulado la búsqueda y construcción de indicadores e índices estadísticos. Sin embargo, el interés por contar con mejores formas de estudiar el progreso social ha conducido, muchas veces, a un uso inadecuado de indicadores y medidas. El PBI, por ejemplo, ha sido frecuentemente tomado como un indicador de bienestar. Pero la carencia de un marco conceptual para el estudio del bienestar no es el único problema, ni siquiera el más importante. Una significación similar -o aun mayor- la tiene la escasa competencia estadística de periodistas, hacedores de políticas públicas y -en general- la ciudadanía. En conjunto, estos elementos coadyuvan a limitar el uso de los datos en el debate público. En este artículo abordo el cambio desde la aritmética política hacia los modernos reportes sociales (par. 1); el éxito de la cuantificación en la administración del Estado (par. 2); los usos inadecuados de la cuantificación (par. 3); la actual no utilización de la cuantificación y la búsqueda de condiciones contextuales que interfieren en la transformación de la información en conocimiento (par. 4)

Conocimiento y participación : ¿Qué democracia?

Un nuevo ímpetu por la recolección de información parece estar ganando terreno, tal vez heredero del "movimiento de los indicadores sociales". Este movimiento fue un legado de quienes apoyaban la cuantificación en las Ciencias Sociales, en la medida que los números se creían objetivos y científicos per se y la información se consideraba un derecho ciudadano. El estudio de la sociedad en sus múltiples dimensiones ha estimulado la búsqueda y construcción de indicadores e índices estadísticos. Sin embargo, el interés por contar con mejores formas de estudiar el progreso social ha conducido, muchas veces, a un uso inadecuado de indicadores y medidas. El PBI, por ejemplo, ha sido frecuentemente tomado como un indicador de bienestar. Pero la carencia de un marco conceptual para el estudio del bienestar no es el único problema, ni siquiera el más importante. Una significación similar -o aun mayor- la tiene la escasa competencia estadística de periodistas, hacedores de políticas públicas y -en general- la ciudadanía. En conjunto, estos elementos coadyuvan a limitar el uso de los datos en el debate público. En este artículo abordo el cambio desde la aritmética política hacia los modernos reportes sociales (par. 1); el éxito de la cuantificación en la administración del Estado (par. 2); los usos inadecuados de la cuantificación (par. 3); la actual no utilización de la cuantificación y la búsqueda de condiciones contextuales que interfieren en la transformación de la información en conocimiento (par. 4)

Laser ablation data of benthic foraminifera from surface sediments collected from the muddy intertidal flats near Dorum, Northwestern Germany in Autumn 2008

Biological activity introduces variability in element incorporation during calcification and thereby decreases the precision and accuracy when using foraminifera as geochemical proxies in paleoceanography. This so-called 'vital effect' consists of organismal and environmental components. Whereas organismal effects include uptake of ions from seawater and subsequent processing upon calcification, environmental effects include migration- and seasonality-induced differences. Triggering asexual reproduction and culturing juveniles of the benthic foraminifer Ammonia tepida under constant, controlled conditions allow environmental and genetic variability to be removed and the effect of cell-physiological controls on element incorporation to be quantified. Three groups of clones were cultured under constant conditions while determining their growth rates, size-normalized weights and single-chamber Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca using laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Results show no detectable ontogenetic control on the incorporation of these elements in the species studied here. Despite constant culturing conditions, Mg/Ca varies by a factor of similar to 4 within an individual foraminifer while intra-individual Sr/Ca varies by only a factor of 1.6. Differences between clone groups were similar to the intra-clone group variability in element composition, suggesting that any genetic differences between the clone-groups studied here do not affect trace element partitioning. Instead, variability in Mg/Ca appears to be inherent to the process of bio-calcification itself. The variability in Mg/Ca between chambers shows that measurements of at least 6 different chambers are required to determine the mean Mg/Ca value for a cultured foraminiferal test with a precision of <= 10%

Using the input-output approach to measure participation in GVCs : the case of Costa Rica

In order to illustrate how the input-output approach can be used to explore various aspects of a country's participation in GVCs, this paper applies indicators derived from the concept of trade in value-added (TiVA) to the case of Costa Rica. We intend to provide developing countries that seek to foster GVC-driven structural transformation with an example that demonstrates an effective way to measure progress. The analysis presented in this paper makes use of an International Input-Output Table (IIOT) that was constructed by including Costa Rica's first Input-Output Table (IOT) into an existing IIOT. The TiVA indicator has been used to compare and contrast import flows, export flows and bilateral trade balances in terms of gross trade and trade in value-added. The country's comparative advantage is discussed based on a TiVA-related indicator of revealed comparative advantage. The paper also decomposes the domestic content of value added in each sector and measures the degree of fragmentation in the value chains in which Costa Rica participates, highlighting the partner countries that add the most value.

Lazy Lasso for local regression

Locally weighted regression is a technique that predicts the response for new data items from their neighbors in the training data set, where closer data items are assigned higher weights in the prediction. However, the original method may suffer from overfitting and fail to select the relevant variables. In this paper we propose combining a regularization approach with locally weighted regression to achieve sparse models. Specifically, the lasso is a shrinkage and selection method for linear regression. We present an algorithm that embeds lasso in an iterative procedure that alternatively computes weights and performs lasso-wise regression. The algorithm is tested on three synthetic scenarios and two real data sets. Results show that the proposed method outperforms linear and local models for several kinds of scenarios

A modelling language for the resilience assessment of networked systems of systems

Systems of Systems (SoS) present challenging features and existing tools result often inadequate for their analysis, especially for heteregeneous networked infrastructures. Most accident scenarios in networked systems cannot be addressed by a simplistic black or white (i.e. functioning or failed) approach. Slow deviations from nominal operation conditions may cause degraded behaviours that suddenly end up into unexpected malfunctioning, with large portions of the network affected. In this paper,we present a language for modelling networked SoS. The language makes it possible to represent interdependencies of various natures, e.g. technical, organizational and human. The representation of interdependencies is based on control relationships that exchange physical quantities and related information. The language also makes it possible the identification of accident scenarios, by representing the propagation of failure events throughout the network. The results can be used for assessing the effectiveness of those mechanisms and measures that contribute to the overall resilience, both in qualitative and quantitative terms. The presented modelling methodology is general enough to be applied in combination with already existing system analysis techniques, such as risk assessment, dependability and performance evaluation