Screening for physical activity in family practice - Evaluation of two brief assessment tools

Background: Physical activity (PA) is relevant to the prevention and management of many health conditions in family practice. There is a need for an efficient, reliable, and valid assessment tool to identify patients in need of PA interventions. Methods: Twenty-eight family physicians in three Australian cities assessed the PA of their adult patients during 2004 using either a two- (2Q) or three-question (3Q) assessment. This was administered again approximately 3 days later to evaluate test-retest reliability. Concurrent validity was evaluated by measuring agreement with the Active Australia Questionnaire, and criterion validity by comparison with 7-day Computer Science Applications, Inc. (CSA) accelerometer counts. Results: A total of 509 patients participated, with 428 (84%) completing a repeat assessment, and 415 (82%) accelerometer monitoring. The brief assessments had moderate test-retest reliability (2Q k = 58.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 47.2-68.8%; 3Q k = 55.6%, 95% CI = 43.8-67.4%); fair to moderate concurrent validity (2Q k = 46.7%, 95% CI = 35.657.9%; 3Q k = 38.7%, 95% CI = 26.4-51.1%); and poor to fair criterion validity (2Q k = 18.2%, 95% CI = 3.9-32.6%; 3Q k = 24.3%, 95% CI = 11.6-36.9%) for identifying patients as sufficiently active. A four-level scale of PA derived from the PA assessments was significantly correlated with accelerometer minutes (2Q rho = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.28-0.49; 3Q rho = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.18-0.43). Physicians reported that the assessments took I to 2 minutes to complete. Conclusions: Both PA assessments were feasible to use in family practice, and were suitable for identifying the least active patients. The 2Q assessment was preferred by clinicians and may be most appropriate for dissemination.

Reliability and validity of a brief physical activity assessment for use by family doctors

Objective: To evaluate the reliability and validity of a brief physical activity assessment tool suitable for doctors to use to identify inactive patients in the primary care setting. Methods: Volunteer family doctors (n = 8) screened consenting patients (n = 75) for physical activity participation using a brief physical activity assessment tool. Inter-rater reliability was assessed within one week (n = 71). Validity was assessed against an objective physical activity monitor (computer science and applications accelerometer; n = 42). Results: The brief physical activity assessment tool produced repeatable estimates of sufficient total physical activity, correctly classifying over 76% of cases (kappa 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 0.72). The validity coefficient was reasonable (kappa 0.40, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.69), with good percentage agreement (71%). Conclusions: The brief physical activity assessment tool is a reliable instrument, with validity similar to that of more detailed self report measures of physical activity. It is a tool that can be used efficiently in routine primary healthcare services to identify insufficiently active patients who may need physical activity advice.

Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design

Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

Cardiovascular risk estimation by professionally active cardiovascular nurses: Results from the Basel 2005 Nurses Cohort

Background Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Methods Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (κw). Results Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (≥ 5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of < 1%, while 13% reported having a risk ≥ 5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was < 1% for 96% of responders: only 2% had a ≥ 5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (κw = 0.27). Conclusion Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic CVD risk assessment.

Multidimensional analysis of perceived risk in commercial air travel

This study attempts to assess the role of perceived risk in air passenger behaviour. A survey of 889 respondents is used to investigate a multidimensional concept of perceived risk and to analyse the differences between socio-demographic characteristics regarding passengers' risk assessment. The results indicate that financial risk and temporal risk are the most important in the context of commercial air travel. All perceived risk dimensions differ according gender, age, cultural background, income, previous experience, and reason for travelling. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing risk in information technology projects

There are several studies on managing risks in information technology (IT) projects. Most of the studies identify and prioritise risks through empirical research in order to suggest mitigating measures. Although they are important to clients for future projects, these studies fail to provide any framework for risk management from IT developers' perspective. Although a few studies introduced a framework of risk management in IT projects, most of them are presented from clients' perspectives and very little effort has been made to integrate this with the project management cycle. As IT developers absorb a considerable amount of risk, an integrated framework for managing risks in IT projects from developers' perspective is needed in order to ensure success in IT projects. The main objective of the paper is to develop a risk management framework for IT projects from the developers' perspective. This study uses a combined qualitative and quantitative technique with the active involvement of stakeholders in order to identify, analyse and respond to risks. The entire methodology has been explained using a case study on an information technology project in a public sector organisation in Barbados.

Urinary proteomic biomarkers in coronary artery disease

Urinary proteomics is emerging as a powerful non-invasive tool for diagnosis and monitoring of variety of human diseases. We tested whether signatures of urinary polypeptides can contribute to the existing biomarkers for coronary artery disease (CAD). We examined a total of 359 urine samples from 88 patients with severe CAD and 282 controls. Spot urine was analyzed using capillary electrophoresis on-line coupled to ESI-TOF-MS enabling characterization of more than 1000 polypeptides per sample. In a first step a "training set" for biomarker definition was created. Multiple biomarker patterns clearly distinguished healthy controls from CAD patients, and we extracted 15 peptides that define a characteristic CAD signature panel. In a second step, the ability of the CAD-specific panel to predict the presence of CAD was evaluated in a blinded study using a "test set." The signature panel showed sensitivity of 98% (95% confidence interval, 88.7-99.6) and 83% specificity (95% confidence interval, 51.6-97.4). Furthermore the peptide pattern significantly changed toward the healthy signature correlating with the level of physical activity after therapeutic intervention. Our results show that urinary proteomics can identify CAD patients with high confidence and might also play a role in monitoring the effects of therapeutic interventions. The workflow is amenable to clinical routine testing suggesting that non-invasive proteomics analysis can become a valuable addition to other biomarkers used in cardiovascular risk assessment.

Cues and knowledge structures used by mental-health professionals when making risk assessments

Background: Research into mental-health risks has tended to focus on epidemiological approaches and to consider pieces of evidence in isolation. Less is known about the particular factors and their patterns of occurrence that influence clinicians’ risk judgements in practice. Aims: To identify the cues used by clinicians to make risk judgements and to explore how these combine within clinicians’ psychological representations of suicide, self-harm, self-neglect, and harm to others. Method: Content analysis was applied to semi-structured interviews conducted with 46 practitioners from various mental-health disciplines, using mind maps to represent the hierarchical relationships of data and concepts. Results: Strong consensus between experts meant their knowledge could be integrated into a single hierarchical structure for each risk. This revealed contrasting emphases between data and concepts underpinning risks, including: reflection and forethought for suicide; motivation for self-harm; situation and context for harm to others; and current presentation for self-neglect. Conclusions: Analysis of experts’ risk-assessment knowledge identified influential cues and their relationships to risks. It can inform development of valid risk-screening decision support systems that combine actuarial evidence with clinical expertise.

Achieving continuous improvement through self-assessment

In 2007 the UK Office of Government Commerce was mandated to carry out Procurement Capability Reviews (PCR) across the 16 top spending UK Government Departments. Since then, this programme has evolved into a self assessment based approach which is markedly different from the original approach. Will the move from a centre-led strategic review of procurement capability to a department-led model based on self assessment continue to strengthen and improve procurement capability across Central Civil Government? OGC is currently working with UK Government Departments to carry out their PCRs using a self-assessment tool which incorporates qualitative and quantitative measures. Results are generated based on a capability maturity model. The results are assured independently. OGC expectations are that tangible and measurable capability improvements will be realised when departments embed the self-assessment model and implement the findings as part of a continuous improvement regime. This paper is a case study, using some relevant literature to reflect on past and possible future development of the PCR self assessment scheme.

Development of a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental health clinical expertise

This thesis explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. Probabilistic graphical structures can be a combination of graph and probability theory that provide numerous advantages when it comes to the representation of domains involving uncertainty, domains such as the mental health domain. In this thesis the advantages that probabilistic graphical structures offer in representing such domains is built on. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool (GRiST) is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. In this thesis the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. This thesis describes how a chain graph can be developed from the psychological model to provide a probabilistic evaluation of risk that complements the one generated by GRiST’s clinical expertise by the decomposing of the GRiST knowledge structure in component parts, which were in turned mapped into equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements

Development of a risk-oriented strategic sourcing (ROSS) framework for the construction and electronics manufacturing industries

Strategic sourcing has increased in importance in recent years, and now plays an important role in companies’ planning. The current volatility in supply markets means companies face multiple challenges involving lock-in situations, supplier bankruptcies or supply security issues. In addition, their exposure can increase due to natural disasters, as witnessed recently in the form of bird flu, volcanic ash and tsunamis. Therefore, the primary focus of this study is risk management in the context of strategic sourcing. The study presents a literature review on sourcing based on the 15 years from 1998–2012, and considers 131 academic articles. The literature describes strategic sourcing as a strategic, holistic process in managing supplier relationships, with a long-term focus on adding value to the company and realising competitive advantage. Few studies discovered the real risk impact and status of risk management in strategic sourcing, and evaluation across countries and industries was limited, with the construction sector particularly under-researched. This methodology is founded on a qualitative study of twenty cases across Ger-many and the United Kingdom from the construction sector and electronics manufacturing industries. While considering risk management in the context of strategic sourcing, the thesis takes into account six dimensions that cover trends in strategic sourcing, theoretical and practical sourcing models, risk management, supply and demand management, critical success factors and the strategic supplier evaluation. The study contributes in several ways. First, recent trends are traced and future needs identified across the research dimensions of countries, industries and companies. Second, it evaluates critical success factors in contemporary strategic sourcing. Third, it explores the application of theoretical and practical sourcing models in terms of effectiveness and sustainability. Fourth, based on the case study findings, a risk-oriented strategic sourcing framework and a model for strategic sourcing are developed. These are based on the validation of contemporary requirements and a critical evaluation of the existing situation. It contemplates the empirical findings and leads to a structured process to manage risk in strategic sourcing. The risk-oriented framework considers areas such as trends, corporate and sourcing strategy, critical success factors, strategic supplier selection criteria, risk assessment, reporting, strategy alignment and reporting. The proposed model highlights the essential dimensions in strategic sourcing and guides us to a new definition of strategic sourcing supported by this empirical study.

Linking risk management to strategic controls:a case study of Tesco plc

Definitions and perceptions of the role and styles of risk management, and performance management/strategic control systems have evolved over time, but it can be argued that risk management is primarily concerned with ensuring the achievement of strategic objectives. This paper shows the extent of overlap between a broad-based view of risk management, namely Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), and the balanced scorecard, which is a widely used strategic control system. A case study of one of the UK's largest retailers, Tesco plc, is used to show how ERM can be introduced as part of an existing strategic control system. The case demonstrates that, despite some differences in lines of communications, the strategic controls and risk controls can be used to achieve a common objective. Adoption of such an integrated approach, however, has implications for the profile of risk and the overall risk culture within an organisation.

An eMathTeacher Tool for Active Learning Fleury’s Algorithm

An eMathTeacher [Sánchez-Torrubia 2007a] is an eLearning on line self assessment tool that help students to active learning math algorithms by themselves, correcting their mistakes and providing them with clues to find the right solution. The tool presented in this paper is an example of this new concept on Computer Aided Instruction (CAI) resources and has been implemented as a Java applet and designed as an auxiliary instrument for both classroom teaching and individual practicing of Fleury’s algorithm. This tool, included within a set of eMathTeacher tools, has been designed as educational complement of Graph Algorithm active learning for first course students. Its characteristics of visualization, simplicity and interactivity, make this tutorial a great value pedagogical instrument.

Emerging of human factor in risk analysis of home care service

Risk management in healthcare represents a group of various complex actions, implemented to improve the quality of healthcare services and guarantee the patients safety. Risks cannot be eliminated, but it can be controlled with different risk assessment methods derived from industrial applications and among these the Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is a largely used methodology. The main purpose of this work is the analysis of failure modes of the Home Care (HC) service provided by local healthcare unit of Naples (ASL NA1) to focus attention on human and non human factors according to the organization framework selected by WHO. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

Does Lost Time Cost You Money and Create High Risk?

The aim of the case study is to express the delayed repair time impact on the revenues and profit in numbers with the example of the outage of power plant units. Main steps of risk assessment: • creating project plan suitable for risk assessment • identification of the risk factors for each project activities • scenario-analysis based evaluation of risk factors • selection of the critical risk factors based on the results of quantitative risk analysis • formulating risk response actions for the critical risks • running Monte-Carlo simulation [1] using the results of scenario-analysis • building up a macro which creates the connection among the results of the risk assessment, the production plan and the business plan.