Mass media and polarisation processes in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics

This paper presents a social simulation in which we add an additional layer of mass media communication to the social network 'bounded confidence' model of Deffuant et al (2000). A population of agents on a lattice with continuous opinions and bounded confidence adjust their opinions on the basis of binary social network interactions between neighbours or communication with a fixed opinion. There are two mechanisms for interaction. 'Social interaction' occurs between neighbours on a lattice and 'mass communication' adjusts opinions based on an agent interacting with a fixed opinion. Two new variables are added, polarisation: the degree to which two mass media opinions differ, and broadcast ratio: the number of social interactions for each mass media communication. Four dynamical regimes are observed, fragmented, double extreme convergence, a state of persistent opinion exchange leading to single extreme convergence and a disordered state. Double extreme convergence is found where agents are less willing to change opinion and mass media communications are common or where there is moderate willingness to change opinion and a high frequency of mass media communications. Single extreme convergence is found where there is moderate willingness to change opinion and a lower frequency of mass media communication. A period of persistent opinion exchange precedes single extreme convergence, it is characterized by the formation of two opposing groups of opinion separated by a gradient of opinion exchange. With even very low frequencies of mass media communications this results in a move to central opinions followed by a global drift to one extreme as one of the opposing groups of opinion dominates. A similar pattern of findings is observed for Neumann and Moore neighbourhoods.

Disorder-induced phase transition in a one-dimensional model of rice pile

We propose a one-dimensional rice-pile model which connects the 1D BTW sandpile model (Phys. Rev. A 38 (1988) 364) and the Oslo rice-pile model (Phys. Rev. Lett. 77 (1997) 107) in a continuous manner. We found that for a sufficiently large system, there is a sharp transition between the trivial critical behaviour of the 1D BTW model and the self-organized critical (SOC) behaviour. When there is SOC, the model belongs to a known universality class with the avalanche exponent tau = 1.53. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

On the universality of a one-dimensional model of a rice pile

A one-dimensional model of a rice pile is numerically studied for different driving mechanisms and different levels of medium disorder. The universality of the scaling exponents for the transit time distribution and avalanche size distribution is discussed. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

A NEW CHEMICAL-MODEL OF THE CIRCUMSTELLAR ENVELOPE SURROUNDING IRC+10216

A new chemical model of the circumstellar envelope surrounding the carbon-rich star IRC+10216 has been developed. This model incorporates a variety of newly measured rapid neutral-neutral reactions between carbon atoms and hydrocarbons and between the radical CN and a variety of stable neutral molecules. In addition, other neutral-neutral reactions in the above two classes or involving atoms such as N or radicals such as C(2n)H have been included with large rate coefficients although they have not yet been studied in the laboratory. Unlike the interstellar case, where the inclusion of these neutral-neutral reactions destroys molecular complexity, our model results for IRC+10216 show that sufficient abundances of large hydrocarbon radicals and cyanpolyynes can be produced to explain observations. We also discuss the formation of H2CN and NH2CN, two potentially observable molecules in IRC+10216.

Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.

Development of the kinetic model of platinum catalyzed ammonia oxidation in a microreactor

The ammonia oxidation reaction on supported polycrystalline platinum catalyst was investigated in an aluminum-based microreactor. An extensive set of reactions was included in the chemical reactor modeling to facilitate the construction of a kinetic model capable of satisfactory predictions for a wide range of conditions (NH3 partial pressure, 0.01-0.12 atm; O-2 partial pressure, 0.10-0.88 atm; temperature, 523-673 K; contact time, 0.3-0.7 ms). The elementary surface reactions used in developing the mechanism were chosen based on the literature data concerning ammonia oxidation on a Pt catalyst. Parameter estimates for the kinetic model were obtained using multi-response least squares regression analysis using the isothermal plug-flow reactor approximation. To evaluate the model, the behavior of a microstructured reactor was simulated by means of a complete Navier-Stokes model accounting for the reactions on the catalyst surface and the effect of temperature on the physico-chemical properties of the reacting mixture. In this way, the effect of the catalytic wall temperature non-uniformity and the effect of a boundary layer on the ammonia conversion and selectivity were examined. After further optimization of appropriate kinetic parameters, the calculated selectivities and product yields agree very well with the values actually measured in the microreactor. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterisation of a C1qtnf5 Ser163Arg Knock-In Mouse Model of Late-Onset Retinal Macular Degeneration

A single founder mutation resulting in a Ser163Arg substitution in the C1QTNF5 gene product causes autosomal dominant late-onset retinal macular degeneration (L-ORMD) in humans, which has clinical and pathological features resembling age-related macular degeneration. We generated and characterised a mouse