Empiricism in ecological economics: a perspective from complex systems theory

Economies are open complex adaptive systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and neo-classical environmental economics seems not to be the best way to describe the behaviour of such systems. Standard econometric analysis (i.e. time series) takes a deterministic and predictive approach, which encourages the search for predictive policy to ‘correct’ environmental problems. Rather, it seems that, because of the characteristics of economic systems, an ex-post analysis is more appropriate, which describes the emergence of such systems’ properties, and which sees policy as a social steering mechanism. With this background, some of the recent empirical work published in the field of ecological economics that follows the approach defended here is presented. Finally, the conclusion is reached that a predictive use of econometrics (i.e. time series analysis) in ecological economics should be limited to cases in which uncertainty decreases, which is not the normal situation when analysing the evolution of economic systems. However, that does not mean we should not use empirical analysis. On the contrary, this is to be encouraged, but from a structural and ex-post point of view.

The optimal behaviour of firms facing stochastic costs

This paper aims at assessing the optimal behavior of a firm facing stochastic costs of production. In an imperfectly competitive setting, we evaluate to what extent a firm may decide to locate part of its production in other markets different from which it is actually settled. This decision is taken in a stochastic environment. Portfolio theory is used to derive the optimal solution for the intertemporal profit maximization problem. In such a framework, splitting production between different locations may be optimal when a firm is able to charge different prices in the different local markets.

The structural approach of a natrex model on equilibrium exchange rates

Following a general macroeconomic approach, this paper sets a closed micro-founded structural model to determine the long run real exchange rate of a developed economy. In particular, the analysis follows the structure of a Natrex model. The main contribution of this research paper is the development of a solid theoretical framework that analyse in depth the basis of the real exchange rate and the details of the equilibrium dynamics after any shock influencing the steady state. In our case, the intertemporal factors derived from the stock-flow relationship will be particularly determinant. The main results of the paper can be summarised as follows. In first place, a complete well-integrated structural model for long-run real exchange rate determination is developed from first principles. Moreover, within the concrete dynamics of the model, it is found that some convergence restrictions will be necessary. On one hand, for the medium run convergence the sensitivity of the trade balance to changes in real exchange rate should be higher that the correspondent one to the investment decisions. On the other hand, and regarding long-run convergence, it is also necessary both that there exists a negative relationship between investment and capital stock accumulation and that the global saving of the economy depends positively on net foreign debt accumulation. In addition, there are also interesting conclusions about the effects that certain shocks over the exogenous variables of the model have on real exchange rates.

The effect of structural fund spending on the spanish regions: an assessment of the 1994-99 objective 1 CSF

This paper analyzes the growth and employment effects of the 1994-99 Community Support Framework (CSF) for the Objective 1 Spanish regions using a simple supply-side model estimated with a panel of regional data. The results suggest that the impact of the Structural Funds in Spain has been quite sizable, adding around a percentage point to annual output growth in the average Objective 1 region and 0.4 points to employment growth. Over the period 1994-2000, the Framework has resulted in the creation of over 300,000 new jobs and has eliminated 20% of the initial gap in income per capita between the assisted regions and the rest of the country.

Structural inferences from first-price auction experiments

We use structural methods to assess equilibrium models of bidding with data from first-price auction experiments. We identify conditions to test the Nash equilibrium models for homogenous and for heterogeneous constant relative risk aversion when bidders private valuations are independent and uniformly drawn. The outcomes of our study indicate that behavior may have been affected by the procedure used to conduct the experiments and that the usual Nash equilibrium model for heterogeneous constant relative risk averse bidders does not consistently explain the observed overbidding. From an empirical standpoint, our analysis shows the possible drawbacks of overlooking the homogeneity hypothesis when testing symmetric equilibrium models of bidding and it puts in perspective the sensitivity of structural inferences to the available information.

Human capital in export-based internationalisation. "Managerial determinants and their influence upon the export behaviour of the firm: four case-studies of catalan exporting SMEs"

Export activities are a major source of economic growth and are considered important both at the national level and for individual businesses. Moreover, in the case of SMEs, they gain particular relevance, exporting being the most common foreign market entry mode for these firms. The decision maker’s role in the export activity is crucial, particularly in the case of SMEs. However, the extant literature on internationalization is characterized by a lack of consensus among scholars as to what constitutes the managerial factor in determining exporting. Therefore, this study focuses on the following issue: Which are the decision maker’s characteristics and perceptions that may influence the export behaviour of Catalan SMEs? To address this question a multiple case study method is applied across four Catalan exporting SMEs. The methodology chosen for analysing the empirical data is relying on the proposition testing approach while the investigation is conducted including both within and cross-case analysis. The findings show that high educational level, language skills, high risk tolerance, innovativeness as well as strongly perceived export stimuli as compared to low and easy to overcome export barriers positively influence the export involvement and development of SMEs. The study provides further insights into the research topic by jointly studying managerial characteristics and perceptions. Additionally, the majority of research on exporting topics has been carried out in the USA, so there is a clear need of investigation in the field in other countries, moreover in Spain where the exporting activities have not been as widely studied.

Five-day plan for smoking cessation using group behaviour therapy.

The "Five-Day Plan to Stop Smoking" (FDP) is an educational group technique for smoking cessation. We studied a cohort of 123 smokers (55 men, 68 women, mean age 42 years) who participated in 11 successive FDP sessions held in Switzerland between 1995 and 1998 and who were followed up for at least 12 months by telephone or direct interview. Overall, 102 of the 123 subjects (83%) had stopped smoking by the end of the FDP, and self-declared smoking cessation rate was 25% after one year. The following factors potentially associated with outcome were studied: age, sex, smoking habit duration, cigarettes per day, Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), group size, and medical presence among the group leaders. Smoking habit duration was the only variable which showed a statistically significant association with success: the rate of smoking cessation was higher among patients who had smoked for less than 20 years (34.7% vs. 18.9%, p = 0.049). Stress was the most common cause of relapse. The FDP appears to be an effective smoking cessation therapy. Propositions are made in order to improve the success rate of future sessions.

Side effects of genome structural changes.

The first extensive catalog of structural human variation was recently released. It showed that large stretches of genomic DNA that vary considerably in copy number were extremely abundant. Thus it is conceivable that they play a major role in functional variation. Consistently, genomic insertions and deletions were shown to contribute to phenotypic differences by modifying not only the expression levels of genes within the aneuploid segments but also of normal copy-number neighboring genes. In this report, we review the possible mechanisms behind this latter effect.

A simple genetic basis for complex social behaviour mediates widespread gene expression differences.

A remarkable social polymorphism is controlled by a single Mendelian factor in the fire ant Solenopsis invicta. A genomic element marked by the gene Gp-9 determines whether workers tolerate one or many fertile queens in their colony. Gp-9 was recently shown to be part of a supergene with two nonrecombining variants, SB and Sb. SB/SB and SB/Sb queens differ in how they initiate new colonies, and in many physiological traits, for example odour and maturation rate. To understand how a single genetic element can affect all these traits, we used a microarray to compare gene expression patterns between SB/SB and SB/Sb queens of three different age classes: 1-day-old unmated queens, 11-day-old unmated queens and mated, fully reproductive queens collected from mature field colonies. The number of genes that were differentially expressed between SB/SB and SB/Sb queens of the same age class was smallest in 1-day-old queens, maximal in 11-day-old queens and intermediate in reproductive queens. Gene ontology analysis showed that SB/SB queens upregulate reproductive genes faster than SB/Sb queens. For all age classes, genes inside the supergene were overrepresented among the differentially expressed genes. Consistent with the hypothesized greater number of transposons in the Sb supergene, 13 transposon genes were upregulated in SB/Sb queens. Viral genes were also upregulated in SB/Sb mature queens, consistent with the known greater parasite load in colonies headed by SB/Sb queens compared with colonies headed by SB/SB queens. Eighteen differentially expressed genes between reproductive queens were involved in chemical signalling. Our results suggest that many genes in the supergene are involved in regulating social organization and queen phenotypes in fire ants.

Rare genomic structural variants in complex disease: lessons from the replication of associations with obesity.

The limited ability of common variants to account for the genetic contribution to complex disease has prompted searches for rare variants of large effect, to partly explain the 'missing heritability'. Analyses of genome-wide genotyping data have identified genomic structural variants (GSVs) as a source of such rare causal variants. Recent studies have reported multiple GSV loci associated with risk of obesity. We attempted to replicate these associations by similar analysis of two familial-obesity case-control cohorts and a population cohort, and detected GSVs at 11 out of 18 loci, at frequencies similar to those previously reported. Based on their reported frequencies and effect sizes (OR≥25), we had sufficient statistical power to detect the large majority (80%) of genuine associations at these loci. However, only one obesity association was replicated. Deletion of a 220 kb region on chromosome 16p11.2 has a carrier population frequency of 2×10(-4) (95% confidence interval [9.6×10(-5)-3.1×10(-4)]); accounts overall for 0.5% [0.19%-0.82%] of severe childhood obesity cases (P = 3.8×10(-10); odds ratio = 25.0 [9.9-60.6]); and results in a mean body mass index (BMI) increase of 5.8 kg.m(-2) [1.8-10.3] in adults from the general population. We also attempted replication using BMI as a quantitative trait in our population cohort; associations with BMI at or near nominal significance were detected at two further loci near KIF2B and within FOXP2, but these did not survive correction for multiple testing. These findings emphasise several issues of importance when conducting rare GSV association, including the need for careful cohort selection and replication strategy, accurate GSV identification, and appropriate correction for multiple testing and/or control of false discovery rate. Moreover, they highlight the potential difficulty in replicating rare CNV associations across different populations. Nevertheless, we show that such studies are potentially valuable for the identification of variants making an appreciable contribution to complex disease.

Caracteritació de models funcionals d'àmfores romanes mitjançant Finite Element Analysis

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada al Laboratory of Archaeometry del National Centre of Scientific Research “Demokritos” d’Atenes, Grècia, entre juny i setembre 2006. Aquest estudi s’emmarca dins d’un context més ampli d’estudi del canvi tecnològic que es documenta en la producció d’àmfores de tipologia romana durant els segles I aC i I dC en els territoris costaners de Catalunya. Una part d’aquest estudi contempla el càlcul de les propietats mecàniques d’aquestes àmfores i la seva avaluació en funció de la tipologia amforal, a partir de l’Anàlisi d’Elements Finits (AEF). L’AEF és una aproximació numèrica que té el seu origen en les ciències d’enginyeria i que ha estat emprada per estimar el comportament mecànic d’un model en termes, per exemple, de deformació i estrès. Així, un objecte, o millor dit el seu model, es dividit en sub-dominis anomenats elements finits, als quals se’ls atribueixen les propietats mecàniques del material en estudi. Aquests elements finits estan connectats formant una xarxa amb constriccions que pot ser definida. En el cas d’aplicar una força determinada a un model, el comportament de l’objecte pot ser estimat mitjançant el conjunt d’equacions lineals que defineixen el rendiment dels elements finits, proporcionant una bona aproximació per a la descripció de la deformació estructural. Així, aquesta simulació per ordinador suposa una important eina per entendre la funcionalitat de ceràmiques arqueològiques. Aquest procediment representa un model quantitatiu per predir el trencament de l’objecte ceràmic quan aquest és sotmès a diferents condicions de pressió. Aquest model ha estat aplicat a diferents tipologies amforals. Els resultats preliminars mostren diferències significatives entre la tipologia pre-romana i les tipologies romanes, així com entre els mateixos dissenys amforals romans, d’importants implicacions arqueològiques.

The study of insect blood-feeding behaviour: 1. Feeding equipment, physical and endogenous factors, dose effect analysis, and diet destination

Experimental techniques that we have found useful during our studies of insect blood-feeding behaviour are reviewed. Some of the principal findings resulting from these techniques are discussed. Where directly applicable, the work of others is included, but no complete review of the subject has been attempted.

The study of insect blood-feeding behaviour: 2. Recording techniques and the use of flow charts

This paper continues a discussion of approaches and methodologies we have used in our studies of feeding in haematophagous insects. Described are techniques for directly monitoring behaviour: electrical recording of feeding behaviour via resistance changes in the food canal, optical methods for monitoring mouthpart activity, and a computer technique for behavioural event recording. Also described is the use of "flow charts" or "decision diagrams" to model interrelated sequences of behaviours.

When the Line is Crossed... : Paths to Control and Sanction Behaviour Necessitating a State Reaction

The article presents a special form of a European comparative synopsis. For this case examples have been chosen ranging from administrative or minor (criminal) offences to increasingly serious offences and offenders. In this way it can be comparatively demonstrated how the criminal justice systems studied handle specific cases and whether they do so in a similar or different way.