A role of autophagy in PTP4A3-driven cancer progression

Autophagy, a "self-eating" cellular process, has dual roles in promoting and suppressing tumor growth, depending on cellular context. PTP4A3/PRL-3, a plasma membrane and endosomal phosphatase, promotes multiple oncogenic processes including cell proliferation, invasion, and cancer metastasis. In this study, we demonstrate that PTP4A3 accumulates in autophagosomes upon inhibition of autophagic degradation. Expression of PTP4A3 enhances PIK3C3-BECN1-dependent autophagosome formation and accelerates LC3-I to LC3-II conversion in an ATG5-dependent manner. PTP4A3 overexpression also enhances the degradation of SQSTM1, a key autophagy substrate. These functions of PTP4A3 are dependent on its catalytic activity and prenylation-dependent membrane association. These results suggest that PTP4A3 functions to promote canonical autophagy flux. Unexpectedly, following autophagy activation, PTP4A3 serves as a novel autophagic substrate, thereby establishing a negative feedback-loop that may be required to fine-tune autophagy activity. Functionally, PTP4A3 utilizes the autophagy pathway to promote cell growth, concomitant with the activation of AKT. Clinically, from the largest ovarian cancer data set (GSE 9899, n = 285) available in GEO, high levels of expression of both PTP4A3 and autophagy genes significantly predict poor prognosis of ovarian cancer patients. These studies reveal a critical role of autophagy in PTP4A3-driven cancer progression, suggesting that autophagy could be a potential Achilles heel to block PTP4A3-mediated tumor progression in stratified patients with high expression of both PTP4A3 and autophagy genes.

Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: Polarization, Individualization or ‘Middle Class Squeeze’?

Following an unprecedented boom, since 2008 Ireland has experienced a severe economic crisis. Considerable debate persists as to where the heaviest burden of the recession has fallen. Conventional measures of income poverty and inequality have a limited capacity to answer this question. Our analysis, which focuses on economic stress and the mediating role of material deprivation, provides no evidence for individualization or class polarization. Instead we find that while economic stress level are highly stratified in income class and social class terms in both boom and bust periods, the changing impact of class is contingent on life course stage. The affluent income class remained largely insulated from the experience of economic stress. However, it saw its relative advantage overthe income poor class decline at the earlier stage of the life-course. At the other end of the hierarchy, the income poor experienced a relative improvement in their situation in the early life course phases. The precarious income class experienced some improvement in its situation at the earlier life course stages while the outcomes for the middle classes remain unchanged. In the mid-life course stages the precarious and lower middle classes experienced disproportionate increase in their stress levels while at the later life-cycle stage it is the combined middle classes that lost out. Additional effects over time relating to social class are restricted to the deteriorating situation of the petit bourgeoisie at the middle stage of the life-course. The pattern is clearly a good deal more complex that suggested by conventional notions of ‘middle class squeeze’ and points to the distinctive challenges relating to welfare and taxation policy faced by governments in the Great Recession.

Digital pathology and image analysis in tissue biomarker research

Digital pathology and the adoption of image analysis have grown rapidly in the last few years. This is largely due to the implementation of whole slide scanning, advances in software and computer processing capacity and the increasing importance of tissue-based research for biomarker discovery and stratified medicine. This review sets out the key application areas for digital pathology and image analysis, with a particular focus on research and biomarker discovery. A variety of image analysis applications are reviewed including nuclear morphometry and tissue architecture analysis, but with emphasis on immunohistochemistry and fluorescence analysis of tissue biomarkers. Digital pathology and image analysis have important roles across the drug/companion diagnostic development pipeline including biobanking, molecular pathology, tissue microarray analysis, molecular profiling of tissue and these important developments are reviewed. Underpinning all of these important developments is the need for high quality tissue samples and the impact of pre-analytical variables on tissue research is discussed. This requirement is combined with practical advice on setting up and running a digital pathology laboratory. Finally, we discuss the need to integrate digital image analysis data with epidemiological, clinical and genomic data in order to fully understand the relationship between genotype and phenotype and to drive discovery and the delivery of personalized medicine.

Prevalence of refractive error in Europe: the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) Consortium

To estimate the prevalence of refractive error in adults across Europe. Refractive data (mean spherical equivalent) collected between 1990 and 2013 from fifteen population-based cohort and cross-sectional studies of the European Eye Epidemiology (E³) Consortium were combined in a random effects meta-analysis stratified by 5-year age intervals and gender. Participants were excluded if they were identified as having had cataract surgery, retinal detachment, refractive surgery or other factors that might influence refraction. Estimates of refractive error prevalence were obtained including the following classifications: myopia ≤−0.75 diopters (D), high myopia ≤−6D, hyperopia ≥1D and astigmatism ≥1D. Meta-analysis of refractive error was performed for 61,946 individuals from fifteen studies with median age ranging from 44 to 81 and minimal ethnic variation (98 % European ancestry). The age-standardised prevalences (using the 2010 European Standard Population, limited to those ≥25 and <90 years old) were: myopia 30.6 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 30.4–30.9], high myopia 2.7 % (95 % CI 2.69–2.73), hyperopia 25.2 % (95 % CI 25.0–25.4) and astigmatism 23.9 % (95 % CI 23.7–24.1). Age-specific estimates revealed a high prevalence of myopia in younger participants [47.2 % (CI 41.8–52.5) in 25–29 years-olds]. Refractive error affects just over a half of European adults. The greatest burden of refractive error is due to myopia, with high prevalence rates in young adults. Using the 2010 European population estimates, we estimate there are 227.2 million people with myopia across Europe.

Can(Plan)+: Extending the Operational Semantics of the BDI Architecture to deal with Uncertain Information

The BDI architecture, where agents are modelled based on their beliefs, desires and intentions, provides a practical approach to develop large scale systems. However, it is not well suited to model complex Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems pervaded by uncertainty. In this paper we address this issue by extending the operational semantics of Can(Plan) into Can(Plan)+. We start by modelling the beliefs of an agent as a set of epistemic states where each state, possibly using a different representation, models part of the agent's beliefs. These epistemic states are stratified to make them commensurable and to reason about the uncertain beliefs of the agent. The syntax and semantics of a BDI agent are extended accordingly and we identify fragments with computationally efficient semantics. Finally, we examine how primitive actions are affected by uncertainty and we define an appropriate form of lookahead planning.

Ataluren for the treatment of nonsense-mutation cystic fibrosis: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

Background: Ataluren was developed to restore functional protein production in genetic disorders caused by nonsense mutations, which are the cause of cystic fibrosis in 10% of patients. This trial was designed to assess the efficacy and safety of ataluren in patients with nonsense-mutation cystic fibrosis. 

Methods: This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 study enrolled patients from 36 sites in 11 countries in North America and Europe. Eligible patients with nonsense-mutation cystic fibrosis (aged ≥6 years; abnormal nasal potential difference; sweat chloride >40 mmol/L; forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV₁] ≥40% and ≤90%) were randomly assigned by interactive response technology to receive oral ataluren (10 mg/kg in morning, 10 mg/kg midday, and 20 mg/kg in evening) or matching placebo for 48 weeks. Randomisation used a block size of four, stratified by age, chronic inhaled antibiotic use, and percent-predicted FEV₁. The primary endpoint was relative change in percent-predicted FEV₁ from baseline to week 48, analysed in all patients with a post-baseline spirometry measurement. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00803205. 

Findings: Between Sept 8, 2009, and Nov 30, 2010, 238 patients were randomly assigned, of whom 116 in each treatment group had a valid post-baseline spirometry measurement. Relative change from baseline in percent-predicted FEV₁ did not differ significantly between ataluren and placebo at week 48 (-2·5% vs -5·5%; difference 3·0% [95% CI -0·8 to 6·3]; p=0·12). The number of pulmonary exacerbations did not differ significantly between treatment groups (rate ratio 0·77 [95% CI 0·57-1·05]; p=0·0992). However, post-hoc analysis of the subgroup of patients not using chronic inhaled tobramycin showed a 5·7% difference (95% CI 1·5-10·1) in relative change from baseline in percent-predicted FEV₁ between the ataluren and placebo groups at week 48 (-0·7% [-4·0 to 2·1] vs -6·4% [-9·8 to -3·7]; nominal p=0·0082), and fewer pulmonary exacerbations in the ataluern group (1·42 events [0·9-1·9] vs 2·18 events [1·6-2·7]; rate ratio 0·60 [0·42-0·86]; nominal p=0·0061). Safety profiles were generally similar for ataluren and placebo, except for the occurrence of increased creatinine concentrations (ie, acute kidney injury), which occurred in 18 (15%) of 118 patients in the ataluren group compared with one (<1%) of 120 patients in the placebo group. No life-threatening adverse events or deaths were reported in either group. I

nterpretation: Although ataluren did not improve lung function in the overall population of nonsense-mutation cystic fibrosis patients who received this treatment, it might be beneficial for patients not taking chronic inhaled tobramycin. 

Funding: PTC Therapeutics, Cystic Fibrosis Foundation, US Food and Drug Administration's Office of Orphan Products Development, and the National Institutes of Health. 

Bereavement After Informal Caregiving: Assessing Mental Health Burden Using Linked Population Data

Methods. We linked prescription records for antidepressant and anxiolytic drugs to characteristics and life-event data of members of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (n = 317 264). Using a case-control design, we fitted logistic regression models, stratified by age, to model relative likelihood of mental health problems, using the proxy measures of mental health–related prescription.

Results. Both caregivers and bereaved individuals were estimated to be at between 20% and 50% greater risk for mental health problems than noncaregivers in similar circumstances (for bereaved working-age caregivers, odds ratio = 1.41; 95% confidence interval = 1.27, 1.56). For older people, there was no evidence of additional risk to bereaved caregivers, though there was for working-age people. Older people appeared to recover more quickly from caregiver bereavement.

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors.

Increasing Prevalence of Myopia in Europe and the Impact of Education

PURPOSE: To investigate whether myopia is becoming more common across Europe and explore whether increasing education levels, an important environmental risk factor for myopia, might explain any temporal trend.

DESIGN: Meta-analysis of population-based, cross-sectional studies from the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium.

PARTICIPANTS: The E(3) Consortium is a collaborative network of epidemiological studies of common eye diseases in adults across Europe. Refractive data were available for 61 946 participants from 15 population-based studies performed between 1990 and 2013; participants had a range of median ages from 44 to 78 years.

METHODS: Noncycloplegic refraction, year of birth, and highest educational level achieved were obtained for all participants. Myopia was defined as a mean spherical equivalent ≤-0.75 diopters. A random-effects meta-analysis of age-specific myopia prevalence was performed, with sequential analyses stratified by year of birth and highest level of educational attainment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Variation in age-specific myopia prevalence for differing years of birth and educational level.

RESULTS: There was a significant cohort effect for increasing myopia prevalence across more recent birth decades; age-standardized myopia prevalence increased from 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.6-18.1) to 23.5% (95% CI, 23.2-23.7) in those born between 1910 and 1939 compared with 1940 and 1979 (P = 0.03). Education was significantly associated with myopia; for those completing primary, secondary, and higher education, the age-standardized prevalences were 25.4% (CI, 25.0-25.8), 29.1% (CI, 28.8-29.5), and 36.6% (CI, 36.1-37.2), respectively. Although more recent birth cohorts were more educated, this did not fully explain the cohort effect. Compared with the reference risk of participants born in the 1920s with only primary education, higher education or being born in the 1960s doubled the myopia prevalence ratio-2.43 (CI, 1.26-4.17) and 2.62 (CI, 1.31-5.00), respectively-whereas individuals born in the 1960s and completing higher education had approximately 4 times the reference risk: a prevalence ratio of 3.76 (CI, 2.21-6.57).

CONCLUSIONS: Myopia is becoming more common in Europe; although education levels have increased and are associated with myopia, higher education seems to be an additive rather than explanatory factor. Increasing levels of myopia carry significant clinical and economic implications, with more people at risk of the sight-threatening complications associated with high myopia.

Research in Progress: Medical Research Council United Kingdom Refractory Asthma Stratification Programme (RASP-UK)

The UK Refractory Asthma Stratification Programme(RASP-UK) will explore novel biomarker stratificationstrategies in severe asthma to improve clinicalmanagement and accelerate development of newtherapies. Prior asthma mechanistic studies have notstratified on inflammatory phenotype and theunderstanding of pathophysiological mechanisms inasthma without Type 2 cytokine inflammation is limited.RASP-UK will objectively assess adherence tocorticosteroids (CS) and examine a novel compositebiomarker strategy to optimise CS dose; this will alsoaddress what proportion of patients with severe asthmahave persistent symptoms without eosinophilic airwaysinflammation after progressive CS withdrawal. There will be interactive partnership with the pharmaceutical industry to facilitate access to stratified populations for novel therapeutic studies.

Rationale and Means to Target Pro-Inflammatory Interleukin-8 (CXCL8) Signaling in Cancer

It is well established that chronic inflammation underpins the development of a number of human cancers, with pro-inflammatory signaling within the tumor microenvironment contributing to tumor progression and metastasis. CXCL8 is an ELR+ pro-inflammatory CXC-chemokine which mediates its effects via signaling through two G protein-coupled receptors, CXCR1 and CXCR2. Elevated CXCL8-CXCR1/2 signaling within the tumor microenvironment of numerous cancers is known to enhance tumor progression via activation of signaling pathways promoting proliferation, angiogenesis, migration, invasion and cell survival. This review provides an overview of established roles of CXCL8-CXCR1/2 signaling in cancer and subsequently, discusses the possible strategies of targeting CXCL8-CXCR1/2 signaling in cancer, covering indirect strategies (e.g., anti-inflammatories, NFκB inhibitors) and direct CXCL8 or CXCR1/2 inhibition (e.g., neutralizing antibodies, small molecule receptor antagonists, pepducin inhibitors and siRNA strategies). Reports of pre-clinical cancer studies and clinical trials using CXCL8-CXCR1/2-targeting strategies for the treatment of inflammatory diseases will be discussed. The future translational opportunities for use of such agents in oncology will be discussed, with emphasis on exploitation in stratified populations.

The Cyrenaican Prehistory Project 2011: Late-Holocene environments and human activity from a cave fill in Cyrenaica, Libya

Little is known about late Holocene environmental change in Cyrenaica. The late Holocene sequence in the Haua Fteah, the key regional site, is highly discontinuous and characterised by stable-burning deposits. The geoarchaeology of the late-Holocene cave fill of a small cave, CP1565, located close to the Haua Fteah, is described. The well-stratified sequence, dating from the fourth century AD to the present day, provides a glimpse of life at the bottom of the settlement hierarchy and of changing environments over the last 1600 years, with degraded vegetation and aridity in the ‘Little Ice Age’.

Efficacy and safety of ivacaftor in patients with cystic fibrosis who have an Arg117His-CFTR mutation: a double-blind, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Ivacaftor has been previously assessed in patients with cystic fibrosis with Gly551Asp-CFTR or other gating mutations. We assessed ivacaftor in patients with Arg117His-CFTR, a residual function mutation.

METHODS: We did a 24-week, placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomised clinical trial, which enrolled 69 patients with cystic fibrosis aged 6 years and older with Arg117His-CFTR and percentage of predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (% predicted FEV1) of at least 40. We randomly assigned eligible patients (1:1) to receive placebo or ivacaftor 150 mg every 12 h for 24 weeks. Randomisation was stratified by age (6-11, 12-17, and ≥18 years) and % predicted FEV1 (<70, ≥70 to ≤90, and >90). The primary outcome was the absolute change from baseline in % predicted FEV1 through week 24. Secondary outcomes included safety and changes in sweat chloride concentrations and Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-Revised (CFQ-R) respiratory domain scores. An open-label extension enrolled 65 of the patients after washout; after 12 weeks, we did an interim analysis.

FINDINGS: After 24 weeks, the treatment difference in mean absolute change in % predicted FEV1 between ivacaftor (n=34) and placebo (n=35) was 2·1 percentage points (95% CI -1·13 to 5·35; p=0·20). Ivacaftor treatment resulted in significant treatment differences in sweat chloride (-24·0 mmol/L, 95% CI -28·01 to -19·93; p<0·0001) and CFQ-R respiratory domain (8·4, 2·17 to 14·61; p=0·009). In prespecified subgroup analyses, % predicted FEV1 significantly improved with ivacaftor in patients aged 18 years or older (treatment difference vs placebo: 5·0 percentage points, 95% CI 1·15 to 8·78; p=0·01), but not in patients aged 6-11 years (-6·3 percentage points, -11·96 to -0·71; p=0·03). In the extension study, both placebo-to-ivacaftor and ivacaftor-to-ivacaftor groups showed % predicted FEV1 improvement (absolute change from post-washout baseline at week 12: placebo-to-ivacaftor, 5·0 percentage points [p=0·0005]; ivacaftor-to-ivacaftor, 6·0 percentage points [p=0·006]). We did not identify any new safety concerns. The studies are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (the randomised, placebo-controlled study, number NCT01614457; the open-label extension study, number NCT01707290).

INTERPRETATION: Although this study did not show a significant improvement in % predicted FEV1, ivacaftor did significantly improve sweat chloride and CFQ-R respiratory domain scores and lung function in adult patients with Arg117His-CFTR, indicating that ivacaftor might benefit patients with Arg117His-CFTR who have established disease.

Effect of radium-223 dichloride on symptomatic skeletal events in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and bone metastases: results from a phase 3, double-blind, randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Bone metastases frequently cause skeletal events in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. Radium-223 dichloride (radium-223) selectively targets bone metastases with high-energy, short-range α-particles. We assessed the effect of radium-223 compared with placebo in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and bone metastases.

METHODS: In this phase 3, double-blind, randomised ALSYMPCA trial, we enrolled patients who had symptomatic castration-resistant prostate cancer with two or more bone metastases and no known visceral metastases, who were receiving best standard of care, and had previously either received or were unsuitable for docetaxel. Patients were stratified by previous docetaxel use, baseline total alkaline phosphatase level, and current bisphosphonate use, then randomly assigned (2:1) to receive either six intravenous injections of radium-223 (50 kBq/kg) or matching placebo; one injection was given every 4 weeks. Randomisation was done with an interactive voice response system, taking into account trial stratification factors. Participants and investigators were masked to treatment assignment. The primary endpoint was overall survival, which has been reported previously. Here we report on time to first symptomatic skeletal event, defined as the use of external beam radiation to relieve bone pain, or occurrence of a new symptomatic pathological fracture (vertebral or non-verterbal), or occurence of spinal cord compression, or tumour-related orthopeadic surgical intervention. All events were required to be clinically apparent and were not assessed by periodic radiological review. Statistical analyses of symptomatic skeletal events were based on the intention-to-treat population. The study has been completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00699751.

FINDINGS: Between June 12, 2008, and Feb 1, 2011, 921 patients were enrolled, of whom 614 (67%) were randomly assigned to receive radium-223 and 307 (33%) placebo. Symptomatic skeletal events occurred in 202 (33%) of 614 patients in the radium-223 group and 116 (38%) of 307 patients in the placebo group. Time to first symptomatic skeletal event was longer with radium-223 than with placebo (median 15·6 months [95% CI 13·5-18·0] vs 9·8 months [7·3-23·7]; hazard ratio [HR]=0·66, 95% CI 0·52-0·83; p=0·00037). The risks of external beam radiation therapy for bone pain (HR 0·67, 95% CI 0·53-0·85) and spinal cord compression (HR=0·52, 95% CI 0·29-0·93) were reduced with radium-233 compared with placebo. Radium-223 treatment did not seem to significantly reduce the risk of symptomatic pathological bone fracture (HR 0·62, 95% CI 0·35-1·09), or the need for tumour-related orthopaedic surgical intervention (HR 0·72, 95% CI 0·28-1·82).

INTERPRETATION: Radium-223 should be considered as a treatment option for patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and symptomatic bone metastases.

FUNDING: Algeta and Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals.

Aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen in early breast cancer: patient-level meta-analysis of the randomised trials

BACKGROUND: The optimal ways of using aromatase inhibitors or tamoxifen as endocrine treatment for early breast cancer remains uncertain.

METHODS: We undertook meta-analyses of individual data on 31 920 postmenopausal women with oestrogen-receptor-positive early breast cancer in the randomised trials of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen; of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5; and of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen. Primary outcomes were any recurrence of breast cancer, breast cancer mortality, death without recurrence, and all-cause mortality. Intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, and trial, yielded aromatase inhibitor versus tamoxifen first-event rate ratios (RRs).

FINDINGS: In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0·64, 95% CI 0·52-0·78) and 2-4 (RR 0·80, 0·68-0·93), and non-significantly thereafter. 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (12·1% vs 14·2%; RR 0·85, 0·75-0·96; 2p=0·009). In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0·74, 0·62-0·89) but not while both groups received aromatase inhibitors during years 2-4, or thereafter; overall in these trials, there were fewer recurrences with 5 years of aromatase inhibitors than with tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitors (RR 0·90, 0·81-0·99; 2p=0·045), though the breast cancer mortality reduction was not significant (RR 0·89, 0·78-1·03; 2p=0·11). In the comparison of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 2-4 (RR 0·56, 0·46-0·67) but not subsequently, and 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with switching to aromatase inhibitors than with remaining on tamoxifen (8·7% vs 10·1%; 2p=0·015). Aggregating all three types of comparison, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors during periods when treatments differed (RR 0·70, 0·64-0·77), but not significantly thereafter (RR 0·93, 0·86-1·01; 2p=0·08). Breast cancer mortality was reduced both while treatments differed (RR 0·79, 0·67-0·92), and subsequently (RR 0·89, 0·81-0·99), and for all periods combined (RR 0·86, 0·80-0·94; 2p=0·0005). All-cause mortality was also reduced (RR 0·88, 0·82-0·94; 2p=0·0003). RRs differed little by age, body-mass index, stage, grade, progesterone receptor status, or HER2 status. There were fewer endometrial cancers with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (10-year incidence 0·4% vs 1·2%; RR 0·33, 0·21-0·51) but more bone fractures (5-year risk 8·2% vs 5·5%; RR 1·42, 1·28-1·57); non-breast-cancer mortality was similar.

INTERPRETATION: Aromatase inhibitors reduce recurrence rates by about 30% (proportionately) compared with tamoxifen while treatments differ, but not thereafter. 5 years of an aromatase inhibitor reduces 10-year breast cancer mortality rates by about 15% compared with 5 years of tamoxifen, hence by about 40% (proportionately) compared with no endocrine treatment.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.