Prediction of postprandial blood glucose under intra-patient variability and uncertainty and its use in the design of insulin dosing strategies for type 1 diabetic patients

In this thesis I propose a novel method to estimate the dose and injection-to-meal time for low-risk intensive insulin therapy. This dosage-aid system uses an optimization algorithm to determine the insulin dose and injection-to-meal time that minimizes the risk of postprandial hyper- and hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetic patients. To this end, the algorithm applies a methodology that quantifies the risk of experiencing different grades of hypo- or hyperglycaemia in the postprandial state induced by insulin therapy according to an individual patient’s parameters. This methodology is based on modal interval analysis (MIA). Applying MIA, the postprandial glucose level is predicted with consideration of intra-patient variability and other sources of uncertainty. A worst-case approach is then used to calculate the risk index. In this way, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemic episodes induced by the insulin therapy tested can be calculated in terms of these uncertainties.

Inclusão educativa de alunos com multideficiência : importância das unidades especializadas em multideficiência

Orientadora : Maria Cristina Gonçalves ; Co-Orientador : Pedro Sá-Couto

As tecnologias da informação e comunicação e o professor de fisioterapia: interações para a construção de práticas pedagógicas

A preocupação central desta pesquisa foi avaliar a utilização das tecnologias da informação e comunicação na prática pedagógica de professores dos cursos de Bacharelado em Fisioterapia de Instituições de Ensino Superior da cidade do Recife, Pernambuco, Brasil. A pesquisa foi conduzida com 100 professores fisioterapeutas que lecionam em quatro instituições de ensino da referida cidade, e com quatro coordenadores dos cursos de Fisioterapia das mesmas instituições. Procedeu-se à aplicação de um questionário validado e adaptado aos professores e uma entrevista semi-estruturada aos coordenadores de curso. A análise dos dados quantitativos foi realizada por meio do programa SPSS 18.0; enquanto a análise dos dados qualitativos foi orientada pela análise de discurso. Os resultados demonstraram a falta de formação profissional dos docentes fisioterapeutas para a utilização das novas tecnologias no ensino da Fisioterapia, visto que, apesar de a maioria dos professores ter acesso aos recursos tecnológicos, poucos fazem uso destas ferramentas em contexto educativo. Assim, sugere-se que muito se tem a evoluir para que toda a potencialidade dos recursos tecnológicos possa ser utilizada a favor do ensino da Fisioterapia, tanto para construção das práticas pedagógicas de seus docentes quanto para a facilitação do processo de ensino-aprendizagem com os alunos.

Renascimento do ideal de martírio na Época Moderna

Este artigo analisa o renascimento do martírio no contexto da confessionalização da Cristandande europeia e das missões ultramarinas nos sécs. XVI e XVII na Europa. Imagens, poemas e canções relativas à morte no Ultramar tornaram-se um importante instrumento de publicidade nas lutas confessionais na Europa. O seu impacto no Ultramar consistiu um importante testemunho do seu objectivo de representar a verdadeira Igreja Apostólica para a Igreja Católica.

Comparison of long term cochlear noise injury and age-related cochlear degeneration in mice

This paper studies and compares age related hearing loss and noise-induced hearing loss in mice, and the different cell types that are affected by aging and noise.

The use of a single channel, two attenuator hearing aid by severely hearing impaired children

This paper examines the results of testing five severely hearing impaired children using a special binaural system with s single amplification channel and two attenuators, allowing presentation of the stimulus materials monaurally or at different relative levels to the two ears.

Kipus: revista andina de letras. 21 (Reseñas)

Presenta las reseñas de los siguientes libros: JAVIER VÁSCONEZ, JARDÍN CAPELO, Quito, Orogenia, 2007. APUESTA. LOS JUEGOS DE VÁSCONEZ, FRANCISCO ESTRELLA, COMP., Quito, Taurus, 2007, 194 pp. -- HUMBERTO E. ROBLES, LA NOCIÓN DE VANGURDIA EN EL ECUADOR (RECEPCIÓN, TRAYECTORIA Y DOCUMENTOS 1918-1934), Quito, Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar / Corporación Editora Nacional, 2006, 2a. ed., 198 pp. -- ABDÓN UBIDIA, CELEBRACIÓN DE LOS LIBROS, Quito, El Conejo / Eskeletra, 2007, 174 pp. -- CARLOS ARCOS, EL INVITADO, Quito, El Conejo, 2007, 334 pp. -- VICENTE ROBALINO, CUANDO EL CUERPO SE DESPRENDE DEL ALBA, Quito, Casa de la Cultura Ecuatoriana, 2006, 73, pp.

Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes

Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

KQQKQQ and the Kasparov-World Game

The 1999 Kasparov-World game for the first time enabled anyone to join a team playing against a World Chess Champion via the web. It included a surprise in the opening, complex middle-game strategy and a deep ending. As the game headed for its mysterious finale, the World Team re-quested a KQQKQQ endgame table and was provided with two by the authors. This paper describes their work, compares the methods used, examines the issues raised and summarises the concepts involved for the benefit of future workers in the endgame field. It also notes the contribution of this endgame to chess itself.

The effect of soil phosphorus on particulate phosphorus in land runoff

Accumulation of surplus phosphorus (P) in the soil and the resulting increased transport of P in land runoff contribute to freshwater eutrophication. The effects of increasing soil P (19–194 mg Olsen-P (OP) kg−1) on the concentrations of particulate P (PP), and sorption properties (Qmax, k and EPCo) of suspended solids (SS) in overland flow from 15 unreplicated field plots established on a dispersive arable soil were measured over three monitoring periods under natural rainfall. Concentrations of PP in plot runoff increased linearly at a rate of 2.6 μg litre−1 per mg OP kg−1 of soil, but this rate was approximately 50% of the rate of increase in dissolved P (< 0.45 μm). Concentrations of SS in runoff were similar across all plots and contained a greater P sorption capacity (mean + 57%) than the soil because of enrichment with fine silt and clay (0.45–20 μm). As soil P increased, the P enrichment ratio of the SS declined exponentially, and the values of P saturation (Psat; 15–42%) and equilibrium P concentration (EPCo; 0.7–5.5 mg litre−1) in the SS fell within narrower ranges compared with the soils (6–74% and 0.1–10 mg litre−1, respectively). When OP was < 100 mg kg−1, Psat and EPCo values in the SS were smaller than those in the soil and vice-versa, suggesting that eroding particles from soils with both average and high P fertility would release P on entering the local (Rosemaund) stream. Increasing soil OP from average to high P fertility increased the P content of the SS by approximately 10%, but had no significant (P > 0.05) effect on the Psat, or EPCo, of the SS. Management options to reduce soil P status as a means of reducing P losses in land runoff and minimizing eutrophication risk may therefore have more limited effect than is currently assumed in catchment management.