Lower partial moment and information entropy-based dynamic electricity purchasing strategy

In the electricity market environment, load-serving entities (LSEs) will inevitably face risks in purchasing electricity because there are a plethora of uncertainties involved. To maximize profits and minimize risks, LSEs need to develop an optimal strategy to reasonably allocate the purchased electricity amount in different electricity markets such as the spot market, bilateral contract market, and options market. Because risks originate from uncertainties, an approach is presented to address the risk evaluation problem by the combined use of the lower partial moment and information entropy (LPME). The lower partial moment is used to measure the amount and probability of the loss, whereas the information entropy is used to represent the uncertainty of the loss. Electricity purchasing is a repeated procedure; therefore, the model presented represents a dynamic strategy. Under the chance-constrained programming framework, the developed optimization model minimizes the risk of the electricity purchasing portfolio in different markets because the actual profit of the LSE concerned is not less than the specified target under a required confidence level. Then, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to solve the optimization model. Finally, a sample example is used to illustrate the basic features of the developed model and method.

Air ion concentrations under overhead power lines

Corona discharge is responsible for the flux of small ions from overhead power lines, and is capable of modifying the ambient electrical environment, such as the air ion concentrations at ground level. Once produced, small ions quickly attach to aerosol particles in the air, producing ‘large ions’, approximately 1 nm to 1 µm in diameter. However, very few studies have measured air ion concentrations directly near high voltage transmission lines. The present study involved the simultaneously measurement of small ion concentration and net large ion concentration using air ion counters and an aerosol electrometer at four power line sites. Both positive and negative small ion concentration (<1.6nm), net large ion concentration (2nm-5μm) and particle number concentration (10nm-2μm) were measured using air ion counters and an aerosol electrometer at four power line sites. Measurements at sites 1 and 2 were conducted at both upwind and downwind sides. The results showed that total ion concentrations on the downwind side were 3-5 times higher than on the upwind side, while particle number concentrations did not show a significant difference. This result also shows that a large number of ions were emitted from the power lines at sites 1 and 2. Furthermore, both positive and negative ions were observed at different power line sites. Dominant positive ions were observed at site 1, with a concentration of 4.4 x 103 ions cm-3, which was 10 times higher than on the upwind side. Contrary to site 1, sites 2 to 4 showed negative ion emissions, with concentrations of -1.2 x 103, -460 and -410 ions cm-3, respectively. These values were higher than the background urban negative ion concentration of 400 cm-3. At site 1 and site 2, the net ion concentration and net particle charge concentration on downwind side of the lines showed same polarities. Further investigations were also conducted into the correlation between net ion concentration and net charge particle concentration 20 m downwind of the power lines at site 2. The two parameters showed a correlation coefficient of 0.72, indicating that a substantial number of ions could attach to particles and affect the particle charge status within a short distance from the source.

Internal calibration of gel dosimeters : a feasibility study

In this work we test the feasibility of a new calibration method for gel dosimetry. We examine, through Monte Carlo modelling, whether the inclusion of an organic plastic scintillator system at key points within the gel phantom would perturb the dose map. Such a system would remove the requirement for a separate calibration gel, removing many sources of uncertainty.

License scheme : an optimal waste management policy under asymmetric information

A system requiring a waste management license from an enforcement agency has been introduced in many countries. A license system is usually coupled with fines, a manifest, and a disposal tax. However, these policy devices have not been integrated into an optimal policy. In this paper we derive an optimal waste management policy by using those policy devices. Waste management policies are met with three difficult problems: asymmetric information, the heterogeneity of waste management firms, and non-compliance by waste management firms and waste disposers. The optimal policy in this paper overcomes all three problems.

Soil-pile interaction of pile embedded in deep layered marine sediment under seismic excitation

This research provides validated Finite Element techniques to analyse pile foundations under seismic loads. The results show that the capability of the technique to capture the important pile response which includes kinematic and inertial interaction effects, effects of soil stiffness and depth on pile deflection patterns and permanent deformations.

Assessing uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling via model validation

Stormwater pollution is linked to stream ecosystem degradation. In predicting stormwater pollution, various types of modelling techniques are adopted. The accuracy of predictions provided by these models depends on the data quality, appropriate estimation of model parameters, and the validation undertaken. It is well understood that available water quality datasets in urban areas span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data, which limits the applicability of the developed models in engineering and ecological assessment of urban waterways. This paper presents the application of leave-one-out (LOO) and Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) procedures in a Monte Carlo framework for the validation and estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off when models are developed using a limited dataset. It was found that the application of MCCV is likely to result in a more realistic measure of model coefficients than LOO. Most importantly, MCCV and LOO were found to be effective in model validation when dealing with a small sample size which hinders detailed model validation and can undermine the effectiveness of stormwater quality management strategies.

Malaria rapid diagnostic test performance : results of WHO product testing of malaria RDTs : round 5 (2013)

WHO estimates that half the world’s population is at risk of malaria. In 2012, there were an estimated 207 million cases (with an uncertainty range of 135 million to 287 million) and an estimated 627 000 deaths (with an uncertainty range of 473 000 to 789 000). Approximately 90% of all malaria deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa, and 77% occur in children under 5 years. Malaria remains endemic in 104 countries, and, while parasite-based diagnosis is increasing, most suspected cases of malaria are still not properly confirmed, resulting in over-use of antimalarial drugs and poor disease monitoring (1)...

Ultrathin hematite films deposited layer-by-layer on TiO2 underlayer for efficient water splitting under visible light

Ultrathin hematite (α-Fe2O3) film deposited on a TiO2 underlayer as a photoanode for photoelectrochemical water splitting was described. The TiO2 underlayer was coated on conductive fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) glass by spin coating. The hematite films were formed layer-by-layer by repeating the separated two-phase hydrolysis-solvothermal reaction of iron(III) acetylacetonate and aqueous ammonia. A photocurrent density of 0.683 mA cm−2 at +1.5 V vs. RHE (reversible hydrogen electrode) was obtained under visible light (>420 nm, 100 mW cm−2) illumination. The TiO2 underlayer plays an important role in the formation of hematite film, acting as an intermediary to alleviate the dead layer effect and as a support of large surface areas to coat greater amounts of Fe2O3. The as-prepared photoanodes are notably stable and highly efficient for photoelectrochemical water splitting under visible light. This study provides a facile synthesis process for the controlled production of highly active ultrathin hematite film and a simple route for photocurrent enhancement using several photoanodes in tandem.

Interpreting scratch assays using pair density dynamics and approximate Bayesian computation

Quantifying the impact of biochemical compounds on collective cell spreading is an essential element of drug design, with various applications including developing treatments for chronic wounds and cancer. Scratch assays are a technically simple and inexpensive method used to study collective cell spreading; however, most previous interpretations of scratch assays are qualitative and do not provide estimates of the cell diffusivity, D, or the cell proliferation rate,l. Estimating D and l is important for investigating the efficacy of a potential treatment and provides insight into the mechanism through which the potential treatment acts. While a few methods for estimating D and l have been proposed, these previous methods lead to point estimates of D and l, and provide no insight into the uncertainty in these estimates. Here, we compare various types of information that can be extracted from images of a scratch assay, and quantify D and l using discrete computational simulations and approximate Bayesian computation. We show that it is possible to robustly recover estimates of D and l from synthetic data, as well as a new set of experimental data. For the first time, our approach also provides a method to estimate the uncertainty in our estimates of D and l. We anticipate that our approach can be generalized to deal with more realistic experimental scenarios in which we are interested in estimating D and l, as well as additional relevant parameters such as the strength of cell-to-cell adhesion or the strength of cell-to-substrate adhesion.

Performance of new-generation portable water-filled road safety barriers under vehicular impact

Portable water-filled barriers (PWFB) are roadside structures used to enhance safety at roadside work-zones. Ideally, a PWFB system is expected to protect persons and objects behind it and redirect the errant vehicle. The performance criteria of a road safety barrier system are (i) redirection of the vehicle after impact and (ii) lateral deflection within allowable limits. Since its inception, the PWFB has received criticism due to its underperformance compared to the heavier portable concrete barrier. A new generation composite high energy absorbing road safety barrier was recently developed by the authors.

Experimental studies on web crippling behaviour of hollow flange channel beams under two flange load cases

This paper presents the details of an experimental study of a cold-formed steel hollow flange channel beam known as LiteSteel beam (LSB) subject to web crippling under End Two Flange (ETF) and Interior Two Flange (ITF) load cases. The LSB sections with two rectangular hollow flanges are made using a simultaneous cold-forming and electric resistance welding process. Due to the geometry of the LSB, and its unique residual stress characteristics and initial geometric imperfections, much of the existing research for common cold-formed steel sections is not directly applicable to LSB. Experimental and numerical studies have been carried out to evaluate the behaviour and design of LSBs subject to pure bending, predominant shear and combined actions. To date, however, no investigation has been conducted on the web crippling behaviour and strength of LSB sections. Hence an experimental study was conducted to investigate the web crippling behaviour and capacities of LSBs. Twenty-eight web crippling tests were conducted under ETF and ITF load cases, and the ultimate web crippling capacities were compared with the predictions from the design equations in AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100. This comparison showed that AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100 web crippling design equations are unconservative for LSB sections under ETF and ITF load cases. Hence new equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of LSBs based on experimental results. Suitable design rules were also developed under the direct strength method (DSM) format.