Covariance Matrix Estimation and Mean-Variance Optimization in application to International Diversification

Tutkimus keskittyy kansainväliseen hajauttamiseen suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite on selvittää tehostavatko uudet kovarianssimatriisiestimaattorit minimivarianssiportfolion optimointiprosessia. Tavallisen otoskovarianssimatriisin lisäksi optimoinnissa käytetään kahta kutistusestimaattoria ja joustavaa monimuuttuja-GARCH(1,1)-mallia. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu Dow Jonesin toimialaindekseistä ja OMX-H:n portfolioindeksistä. Kansainvälinen hajautusstrategia on toteutettu käyttäen toimialalähestymistapaa ja portfoliota optimoidaan käyttäen kahtatoista komponenttia. Tutkimusaieisto kattaa vuodet 1996-2005 eli 120 kuukausittaista havaintoa. Muodostettujen portfolioiden suorituskykyä mitataan Sharpen indeksillä. Tutkimustulosten mukaan kansainvälisesti hajautettujen investointien ja kotimaisen portfolion riskikorjattujen tuottojen välillä ei ole tilastollisesti merkitsevää eroa. Myöskään uusien kovarianssimatriisiestimaattoreiden käytöstä ei synnytilastollisesti merkitsevää lisäarvoa verrattuna otoskovarianssimatrisiin perustuvaan portfolion optimointiin.

Efficacy of a dilemma-focused intervention for unipolar depression: study protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial

Background Depression is one of the more severe and serious health problems because of its morbidity, disabling effects and for its societal and economic burden. Despite the variety of existing pharmacological and psychological treatments, most of the cases evolve with only partial remission, relapse and recurrence. Cognitive models have contributed significantly to the understanding of unipolar depression and its psychological treatment. However, success is only partial and many authors affirm the need to improve those models and also the treatment programs derived from them. One of the issues that requires further elaboration is the difficulty these patients experience in responding to treatment and in maintaining therapeutic gains across time without relapse or recurrence. Our research group has been working on the notion of cognitive conflict viewed as personal dilemmas according to personal construct theory. We use a novel method for identifying those conflicts using the repertory grid technique (RGT). Preliminary results with depressive patients show that about 90% of them have one or more of those conflicts. This fact might explain the blockage and the difficult progress of these patients, especially the more severe and/or chronic. These results justify the need for specific interventions focused on the resolution of these internal conflicts. This study aims to empirically test the hypothesis that an intervention focused on the dilemma(s) specifically detected for each patient will enhance the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression. Design A therapy manual for a dilemma-focused intervention will be tested using a randomized clinical trial by comparing the outcome of two treatment conditions: combined group CBT (eight, 2-hour weekly sessions) plus individual dilemma-focused therapy (eight, 1-hour weekly sessions) and CBT alone (eight, 2-hour group weekly sessions plus eight, 1-hour individual weekly sessions). Method Participants are patients aged over 18 years meeting diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder or dysthymic disorder, with a score of 19 or above on the Beck depression inventory, second edition (BDI-II) and presenting at least one cognitive conflict (implicative dilemma or dilemmatic construct) as assessed using the RGT. The BDI-II is the primary outcome measure, collected at baseline, at the end of therapy, and at 3- and 12-month follow-up; other secondary measures are also used. Discussion We expect that adding a dilemma-focused intervention to CBT will increase the efficacy of one of the more prestigious therapies for depression, thus resulting in a significant contribution to the psychological treatment of depression. Trial registration ISRCTN92443999; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01542957.

Usefulness of betalactam therapy for community-acquired pneumonia in the era of drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae: a randomized study of amoxicillin-clavulanate and ceftriaxone

Empirical antibiotic therapy of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) has been complicated by the worldwide emergence of penicillin resistance among Streptococcus pneumoniae. The impact of this resistance on the outcome of patients hospitalized for CAP, empirically treated with betalactams, has not been evaluated in a randomized study. We conducted a prospective, randomized trial to assess the efficacy of amoxicillin-clavulanate (2 g/200 mg/8 hr) and ceftriaxone (1 g/24 hr) in a cohort of patients hospitalized for moderate-to-severe CAP. Three-hundred seventy-eight patients were randomized to receive amoxicillin-clavulanate (184 patients) or ceftriaxone (194 patients). Efficacy was assessed on Day 2, after completion of therapy and at long term follow-up. There were no significant differences in outcomes between treatment groups, both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol analysis. Overall mortality was 10.3% for amoxicillin-clavulanate and 8.8% for ceftriaxone (NS). There were 116 evaluable patients with proven pneumococcal pneumonia. Rates of high-level penicillin resistance (MIC of penicillin ≥2 µg/mL) were similar in the two groups (8.2 and 10.2%). Clinical efficacy at the end of therapy was 90.6% for amoxicillin-clavulanate and 88.9% for ceftriaxone (95% C.I. of the difference: -9.3 to +12.7%). No differences in outcomes were attributable to differences in penicillin susceptibility of pneumococcal strains. Sequential i.v./oral amoxicillin-clavulanate and parenteral ceftriaxone were equally safe and effective for the empirical treatment of acute bacterial pneumonia, including penicillin and cephalosporin-resistant pneumococcal pneumonia. The use of appropriate betalactams in patients with penumococcal pneumonia and in the overall CAP population, is reliable at the current level of resistance

Superiority of the Triple Combination of Bortezomib-Thalidomide-Dexamethasone Over the Dual Combination of Thalidomide-Dexamethasone in Patients With Multiple Myeloma Progressing or Relapsing After Autologous Transplantation: The MMVAR/IFM 2005-04 Randomized Phase III Trial From the Chronic Leukemia Working Party of the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

PURPOSE This prospective multicenter phase III study compared the efficacy and safety of a triple combination (bortezomib-thalidomide-dexamethasone [VTD]) versus a dual combination (thalidomide-dexamethasone [TD]) in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) progressing or relapsing after autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT). PATIENTS AND METHODS Overall, 269 patients were randomly assigned to receive bortezomib (1.3 mg/m(2) intravenous bolus) or no bortezomib for 1 year, in combination with thalidomide (200 mg per day orally) and dexamethasone (40 mg orally once a day on 4 days once every 3 weeks). Bortezomib was administered on days 1, 4, 8, and 11 with a 10-day rest period (day 12 to day 21) for eight cycles (6 months), and then on days 1, 8, 15, and 22 with a 20-day rest period (day 23 to day 42) for four cycles (6 months). Results Median time to progression (primary end point) was significantly longer with VTD than TD (19.5 v 13.8 months; hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.80; P = .001), the complete response plus near-complete response rate was higher (45% v 25%; P = .001), and the median duration of response was longer (17.2 v 13.4 months; P = .03). The 24-month survival rate was in favor of VTD (71% v 65%; P = .093). Grade 3 peripheral neuropathy was more frequent with VTD (29% v 12%; P = .001) as were the rates of grades 3 and 4 infection and thrombocytopenia. CONCLUSION VTD was more effective than TD in the treatment of patients with MM with progressive or relapsing disease post-ASCT but was associated with a higher incidence of grade 3 neurotoxicity.

A prospective, randomized, and controlled study of fluid management in children with severe head injury: lactated Ringer's solution versus hypertonic saline.

OBJECTIVES: Resuscitation in severe head injury may be detrimental when given with hypotonic fluids. We evaluated the effects of lactated Ringer's solution (sodium 131 mmol/L, 277 mOsm/L) compared with hypertonic saline (sodium 268 mmol/L, 598 mOsm/L) in severely head-injured children over the first 3 days after injury. DESIGN: An open, randomized, and prospective study. SETTING: A 16-bed pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) (level III) at a university children's hospital. PATIENTS: A total of 35 consecutive children with head injury. INTERVENTIONS: Thirty-two children with Glasgow Coma Scores of <8 were randomly assigned to receive either lactated Ringer's solution (group 1) or hypertonic saline (group 2). Routine care was standardized, and included the following: head positioning at 30 degrees; normothermia (96.8 degrees to 98.6 degrees F [36 degrees to 37 degrees C]); analgesia and sedation with morphine (10 to 30 microg/kg/hr), midazolam (0.2 to 0.3 mg/kg/hr), and phenobarbital; volume-controlled ventilation (PaCO2 of 26.3 to 30 torr [3.5 to 4 kPa]); and optimal oxygenation (PaO2 of 90 to 105 torr [12 to 14 kPa], oxygen saturation of >92%, and hematocrit of >0.30). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Mean arterial pressure and intracranial pressure (ICP) were monitored continuously and documented hourly and at every intervention. The means of every 4-hr period were calculated and serum sodium concentrations were measured at the same time. An ICP of 15 mm Hg was treated with a predefined sequence of interventions, and complications were documented. There was no difference with respect to age, male/female ratio, or initial Glasgow Coma Score. In both groups, there was an inverse correlation between serum sodium concentration and ICP (group 1: r = -.13, r2 = .02, p < .03; group 2: r = -.29, r2 = .08, p < .001) that disappeared in group 1 and increased in group 2 (group 1: r = -.08, r2 = .01, NS; group 2: r = -.35, r2 =.12, p < .001). Correlation between serum sodium concentration and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) became significant in group 2 after 8 hrs of treatment (r = .2, r2 = .04, p = .002). Over time, ICP and CPP did not significantly differ between the groups. However, to keep ICP at <15 mm Hg, group 2 patients required significantly fewer interventions (p < .02). Group 1 patients received less sodium (8.0 +/- 4.5 vs. 11.5 +/- 5.0 mmol/kg/day, p = .05) and more fluid on day 1 (2850 +/- 1480 vs. 2180 +/- 770 mL/m2, p = .05). They also had a higher frequency of acute respiratory distress syndrome (four vs. 0 patients, p = .1) and more than two complications (six vs. 1 patient, p = .09). Group 2 patients had significantly shorter ICU stay times (11.6 +/- 6.1 vs. 8.0 +/- 2.4 days; p = .04) and shorter mechanical ventilation times (9.5 +/- 6.0 vs. 6.9 +/- 2.2 days; p = .1). The survival rate and duration of hospital stay were similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of severe head injury with hypertonic saline is superior to that treatment with lactated Ringer's solution. An increase in serum sodium concentrations significantly correlates with lower ICP and higher CPP. Children treated with hypertonic saline require fewer interventions, have fewer complications, and stay a shorter time in the ICU.

Ranking-Dominance Relation for (Evolutionary) Multi-Objective Optimization

An alternative relation to Pareto-dominance relation is proposed. The new relation is based on ranking a set of solutions according to each separate objective and an aggregation function to calculate a scalar fitness value for each solution. The relation is called as ranking-dominance and it tries to tackle the curse of dimensionality commonly observedin evolutionary multi-objective optimization. Ranking-dominance can beused to sort a set of solutions even for a large number of objectives when Pareto-dominance relation cannot distinguish solutions from one another anymore. This permits search to advance even with a large number of objectives. It is also shown that ranking-dominance does not violate Pareto-dominance. Results indicate that selection based on ranking-dominance is able to advance search towards the Pareto-front in some cases, where selection based on Pareto-dominance stagnates. However, in some cases it is also possible that search does not proceed into direction of Pareto-front because the ranking-dominance relation permits deterioration of individual objectives. Results also show that when the number of objectives increases, selection based on just Pareto-dominance without diversity maintenance is able to advance search better than with diversity maintenance. Therefore, diversity maintenance is connive at the curse of dimensionality.

Computational Analysis and Optimization of Real Gas Flow In Small Centrifugal Compressors

Small centrifugal compressors are more and more widely used in many industrialsystems because of their higher efficiency and better off-design performance comparing to piston and scroll compressors as while as higher work coefficient perstage than in axial compressors. Higher efficiency is always the aim of the designer of compressors. In the present work, the influence of four partsof a small centrifugal compressor that compresses heavy molecular weight real gas has been investigated in order to achieve higher efficiency. Two parts concern the impeller: tip clearance and the circumferential position of the splitter blade. The other two parts concern the diffuser: the pinch shape and vane shape. Computational fluid dynamics is applied in this study. The Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes flow solver Finflo is used. The quasi-steady approach is utilized. Chien's k-e turbulence model is used to model the turbulence. A new practical real gas model is presented in this study. The real gas model is easily generated, accuracy controllable and fairly fast. The numerical results and measurements show good agreement. The influence of tip clearance on the performance of a small compressor is obvious. The pressure ratio and efficiency are decreased as the size of tip clearance is increased, while the total enthalpy rise keeps almost constant. The decrement of the pressure ratio and efficiency is larger at higher mass flow rates and smaller at lower mass flow rates. The flow angles at the inlet and outlet of the impeller are increased as the size of tip clearance is increased. The results of the detailed flow field show that leakingflow is the main reason for the performance drop. The secondary flow region becomes larger as the size of tip clearance is increased and the area of the main flow is compressed. The flow uniformity is then decreased. A detailed study shows that the leaking flow rate is higher near the exit of the impeller than that near the inlet of the impeller. Based on this phenomenon, a new partiallyshrouded impeller is used. The impeller is shrouded near the exit of the impeller. The results show that the flow field near the exit of the impeller is greatly changed by the partially shrouded impeller, and better performance is achievedthan with the unshrouded impeller. The loading distribution on the impeller blade and the flow fields in the impeller is changed by moving the splitter of the impeller in circumferential direction. Moving the splitter slightly to the suction side of the long blade can improve the performance of the compressor. The total enthalpy rise is reduced if only the leading edge of the splitter ismoved to the suction side of the long blade. The performance of the compressor is decreased if the blade is bended from the radius direction at the leading edge of the splitter. The total pressure rise and the enthalpy rise of thecompressor are increased if pinch is used at the diffuser inlet. Among the fivedifferent pinch shape configurations, at design and lower mass flow rates the efficiency of a straight line pinch is the highest, while at higher mass flow rate, the efficiency of a concave pinch is the highest. The sharp corner of the pinch is the main reason for the decrease of efficiency and should be avoided. The variation of the flow angles entering the diffuser in spanwise direction is decreased if pinch is applied. A three-dimensional low solidity twisted vaned diffuser is designed to match the flow angles entering the diffuser. The numerical results show that the pressure recovery in the twisted diffuser is higher than in a conventional low solidity vaned diffuser, which also leads to higher efficiency of the twisted diffuser. Investigation of the detailed flow fields shows that the separation at lower mass flow rate in the twisted diffuser is later than in the conventional low solidity vaned diffuser, which leads to a possible wider flow range of the twisted diffuser.

A pilot feasibility, safety and biological efficacy multicentre trial of therapeutic hypercapnia after cardiac arrest: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac arrest causes ischaemic brain injury. Arterial carbon dioxide tension (PaCO2) is a major determinant of cerebral blood flow. Thus, mild hypercapnia in the 24 h following cardiac arrest may increase cerebral blood flow and attenuate such injury. We describe the Carbon Control and Cardiac Arrest (CCC) trial. METHODS/DESIGN: The CCC trial is a pilot multicentre feasibility, safety and biological efficacy randomized controlled trial recruiting adult cardiac arrest patients admitted to the intensive care unit after return of spontaneous circulation. At admission, using concealed allocation, participants are randomized to 24 h of either normocapnia (PaCO2 35 to 45 mmHg) or mild hypercapnia (PaCO2 50 to 55 mmHg). Key feasibility outcomes are recruitment rate and protocol compliance rate. The primary biological efficacy and biological safety measures are the between-groups difference in serum neuron-specific enolase and S100b protein levels at 24 h, 48 h and 72 h. Secondary outcome measure include adverse events, in-hospital mortality, and neurological assessment at 6 months. DISCUSSION: The trial commenced in December 2012 and, when completed, will provide clinical evidence as to whether targeting mild hypercapnia for 24 h following intensive care unit admission for cardiac arrest patients is feasible and safe and whether it results in decreased concentrations of neurological injury biomarkers compared with normocapnia. Trial results will also be used to determine whether a phase IIb study powered for survival at 90 days is feasible and justified. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12612000690853 .

Steady-state global optimization of metabolic non-linear dynamic models through recasting into power-law canonical models

Background: Design of newly engineered microbial strains for biotechnological purposes would greatly benefit from the development of realistic mathematical models for the processes to be optimized. Such models can then be analyzed and, with the development and application of appropriate optimization techniques, one could identify the modifications that need to be made to the organism in order to achieve the desired biotechnological goal. As appropriate models to perform such an analysis are necessarily non-linear and typically non-convex, finding their global optimum is a challenging task. Canonical modeling techniques, such as Generalized Mass Action (GMA) models based on the power-law formalism, offer a possible solution to this problem because they have a mathematical structure that enables the development of specific algorithms for global optimization. Results: Based on the GMA canonical representation, we have developed in previous works a highly efficient optimization algorithm and a set of related strategies for understanding the evolution of adaptive responses in cellular metabolism. Here, we explore the possibility of recasting kinetic non-linear models into an equivalent GMA model, so that global optimization on the recast GMA model can be performed. With this technique, optimization is greatly facilitated and the results are transposable to the original non-linear problem. This procedure is straightforward for a particular class of non-linear models known as Saturable and Cooperative (SC) models that extend the power-law formalism to deal with saturation and cooperativity. Conclusions: Our results show that recasting non-linear kinetic models into GMA models is indeed an appropriate strategy that helps overcoming some of the numerical difficulties that arise during the global optimization task.

Randomized clinical trial on epidural versus patient-controlled analgesia for laparoscopic colorectal surgery within an enhanced recovery pathway.

OBJECTIVE: To compare epidural analgesia (EDA) to patient-controlled opioid-based analgesia (PCA) in patients undergoing laparoscopic colorectal surgery. BACKGROUND: EDA is mainstay of multimodal pain management within enhanced recovery pathways [enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS)]. For laparoscopic colorectal resections, the benefit of epidurals remains debated. Some consider EDA as useful, whereas others perceive epidurals as unnecessary or even deleterious. METHODS: A total of 128 patients undergoing elective laparoscopic colorectal resections were enrolled in a randomized clinical trial comparing EDA versus PCA. Primary end point was medical recovery. Overall complications, hospital stay, perioperative vasopressor requirements, and postoperative pain scores were secondary outcome measures. Analysis was performed according to the intention-to-treat principle. RESULTS: Final analysis included 65 EDA patients and 57 PCA patients. Both groups were similar regarding baseline characteristics. Medical recovery required a median of 5 days (interquartile range [IQR], 3-7.5 days) in EDA patients and 4 days (IQR, 3-6 days) in the PCA group (P = 0.082). PCA patients had significantly less overall complications [19 (33%) vs 35 (54%); P = 0.029] but a similar hospital stay [5 days (IQR, 4-8 days) vs 7 days (IQR, 4.5-12 days); P = 0.434]. Significantly more EDA patients needed vasopressor treatment perioperatively (90% vs 74%, P = 0.018), the day of surgery (27% vs 4%, P < 0.001), and on postoperative day 1 (29% vs 4%, P < 0.001), whereas no difference in postoperative pain scores was noted. CONCLUSIONS: Epidurals seem to slow down recovery after laparoscopic colorectal resections without adding obvious benefits. EDA can therefore not be recommended as part of ERAS pathways in laparoscopic colorectal surgery.

Identifying the preferred subset of enzymatic profiles in nonlinear kinetic metabolic models via multiobjective global optimization and pareto filters

Optimization models in metabolic engineering and systems biology focus typically on optimizing a unique criterion, usually the synthesis rate of a metabolite of interest or the rate of growth. Connectivity and non-linear regulatory effects, however, make it necessary to consider multiple objectives in order to identify useful strategies that balance out different metabolic issues. This is a fundamental aspect, as optimization of maximum yield in a given condition may involve unrealistic values in other key processes. Due to the difficulties associated with detailed non-linear models, analysis using stoichiometric descriptions and linear optimization methods have become rather popular in systems biology. However, despite being useful, these approaches fail in capturing the intrinsic nonlinear nature of the underlying metabolic systems and the regulatory signals involved. Targeting more complex biological systems requires the application of global optimization methods to non-linear representations. In this work we address the multi-objective global optimization of metabolic networks that are described by a special class of models based on the power-law formalism: the generalized mass action (GMA) representation. Our goal is to develop global optimization methods capable of efficiently dealing with several biological criteria simultaneously. In order to overcome the numerical difficulties of dealing with multiple criteria in the optimization, we propose a heuristic approach based on the epsilon constraint method that reduces the computational burden of generating a set of Pareto optimal alternatives, each achieving a unique combination of objectives values. To facilitate the post-optimal analysis of these solutions and narrow down their number prior to being tested in the laboratory, we explore the use of Pareto filters that identify the preferred subset of enzymatic profiles. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach by means of a case study that optimizes the ethanol production in the fermentation of Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

Factors modifying drug and placebo responses in randomized trials for bipolar mania

Factors modifying drug and placebo responses in randomized trials for bipolar mania. Yildiz A, Vieta E, Tohen M, Baldessarini RJ. Source Department of Psychiatry, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey. agul_yildiz@hotmail.com Abstract Randomized placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) are standard for assessing efficacy and safety of treatments. We pursued preliminary indications that some factors are associated differentially with responses to placebo or drugs in RCTs for bipolar mania. We meta-analysed data from RCTs to assess influences of study-site count, subjects' age, sex distribution, diagnostic subgroups, clinical features, trial-completion rates, and publication year on mean difference (MD) in mania ratings between intake and final assessments. In 38 RCTs involving 3812 placebo-treated and 6988 drug-treated patients, symptomatic improvement was similar in placebo arms of trials of effective (6.77, 95% CI 5.77-7.76) and ineffective (7.61, 95% CI 5.47-8.75) drugs. Lesser placebo responses (MD) and greater drug-placebo differences (Hedges' g) were associated with fewer study sites, younger patients' age, and male sex. More patients with initial psychotic features and more trial completion in drug arms were associated with greater drug-associated improvement (MD) and drug-placebo contrast (Hedges' g), whereas more mixed-state diagnoses decreased both measures. Identifying modifying factors can support more efficient and cost-effective designs of therapeutic trials. In trials for mania, fewer sites may limit placebo response and enhance drug-placebo contrasts.