Utilisation of Short Term Electricity Derivatives in Industrial Energy Management

Työn päätavoite on selvittää kuinka erityisesti sähkön markkinahinnan ennustamiseen ja johdannaismarkkinoiden tietämykseen perustuva lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen tapahtuu teollisessa energianhallinnassa. Tätä aihetta lähestytään luomalla prosessi lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntämiselle. Prosessi esitellään ja selvitetään aina lähtökohdista todelliseen kaupankäyntiin asti erillisen esimerkkitehtaan avulla.Lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen teollisessa energianhallinnassa perustuu pääosin tulevaisuuden odotuksiin sähkön markkinahinnan kehittymisestä sekä tehtaiden operatiiviseen tilanteeseen. Operatiiviseen tilanteeseen perustuva lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten kaupankäynti on pääasiassa pitkän tähtäimen suojausten sopeuttamista lyhyelle tähtäimelle sopivaksi.Hinnan ennustamisella on suuri rooli lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntämisprosessissa. Työssä esitelty hinnan ennustamismalli on sopiva päivä- ja viikkotason Nord Poolin Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamiseen. Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamismalli on suunniteltu käytännönläheiseksi ja sen perustana ovat todelliset fysikaaliset ja mitattavat suureet. Futuurimarkkinatietämys on tarpeen lyhyen tähtäimen johdannaisia käytettäessä. Työssä tutkitaan yleisiä markkinoiden odotuksia ja futuurimarkkinoiden tietoisuuden kehittymistä koskien tulevaa vallitsevaa tilannetta. Työssä luodaan myös työkalu, mikä auttaa kaupan laatijaa muodostamaan suuntaa-antavat todennäköisyydet eri hintanäkemyksille ja paikallistamaan mahdolliset markkinoiden epätodennäköiset hintaodotukset.Kokemukset Elspot -systeemihinnan ennustamismallin soveltamisesta ovat lupaavia. Lisäksi havainnot futuurimarkkinoiden käyttäytymisestä Nord Poolissa ja muodostettu työkalu suuntaa-antavien todennäköisyyksien selvittämiseksi auttavat kaupan laatijaa päätöksenteossa. Lyhyen tähtäimen sähköjohdannaisten hyödyntäminen teollisessa energianhallinnassa on periaatteessa mahdollista esitellyn prosessin avulla, vaikka täydellinen käyttöönotto vaatisi vielä joitakin järjestelyjä. Keskittymällä tilanteisiin jotka työssä kuvatulla prosessilla ovat hoidettavissa, työssä määritellyllä menettelyllä on mahdollisuudet saavuttaa epäedullisen hintakehityksen riskin väheneminen ja parempi taloudellinen tulos teollisen energianhallinnan sähkökaupankäynnissä.

Consumption, investment and life insurance strategies with heterogeneous discounting

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza l'efecte que comporta l'introducció de preferències inconsistents temporalment sobre les decisions òptimes de consum, inversió i compra d'assegurança de vida. En concret, es pretén recollir la creixent importància que un individu dóna a la herència que deixa i a la riquesa disponible per a la seva jubilació al llarg de la seva vida laboral. Amb aquesta finalitat, es parteix d'un model estocàstic en temps continu amb temps final aleatori, i s'introdueix el descompte heterogeni, considerant un agent amb una distribució de vida residual coneguda. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es resol una equació de programació dinàmica no estàndard. Per al cas de funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA es troben solucions explícites. Finalment, els resultats obtinguts s'il·lustren numèricament.

Optimising approaches to active immunotherapy of cancer

The design of therapeutic cancer vaccines is aimed at inducing high numbers and potent T cells that are able to target and eradicate malignant cells. This calls for close collaboration between cells of the innate immune system, in particular dendritic cells (DCs), and cells of the adaptive immune system, notably CD4+ helper T cells and CD8+ cytotoxic T cells. Therapeutic vaccines are aided by adjuvants, which can be, for example, Toll¬like Receptor agonists or agents promoting the cytosolic delivery of antigens, among others. Vaccination with long synthetic peptides (LSPs) is a promising strategy, as the requirement for their intracellular processing will mainly target LSPs to professional antigen presenting cells (APCs), hence avoiding the immune tolerance elicited by the presentation of antigens by non-professional APCs. The unique property of antigen cross-processing and cross-presentation activity by DCs plays an important role in eliciting antitumour immunity given that antigens from engulfed dead tumour cells require this distinct biological process to be processed and presented to CD8+T cells in the context of MHC class I molecules. DCs expressing the XCR1 chemokine receptor are characterised by their superior capability of antigen cross- presentation and priming of highly cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses. Recently, XCR1 was found to be also expressed in tissue-residents DCs in humans, with a simitar transcriptional profile to that of cross- presenting murine DCs. This shed light into the value of harnessing this subtype of XCR1+ cross-presenting DCs for therapeutic vaccination of cancer. In this study, we explored ways of adjuvanting and optimising LSP therapeutic vaccinations by the use, in Part I, of the XCLl chemokine that selectively binds to the XCR1 receptor, as a mean to target antigen to the cross-presenting XCR1+ DCs; and in Part II, by the inclusion of Q.S21 in the LSP vaccine formulation, a saponin with adjuvant activity, as well as the ability to promote cytosolic delivery of LSP antigens due to its intrinsic cell membrane insertion activity. In Part I, we designed and produced XCLl-(OVA LSP)-Fc fusion proteins, and showed that their binding to XCR1+ DCs mediate their chemoattraction. In addition, therapeutic vaccinations adjuvanted with XCLl-(OVA LSP)-Fc fusion proteins significantly enhanced the OVA-specific CD8+ T cell response, and led to complete tumour regression in the EL4-OVA model, and significant control of tumour growth in the B16.0VA tumour model. With the aim to optimise the co-delivery of LSP antigen and XCLl to skin-draining lymph nodes we also tested immunisations using nanoparticle (NP)-conjugated OVA LSP in the presence or absence of XCLl chemokine. The NP-mediated delivery of LSP potentiated the CTL response seen in the blood of vaccinated mice, and NP-OVA LSP vaccine in the presence of XCLl led to higher blood frequencies of OVA-specific memory-precursor effector cells. Nevertheless, in these settings, the addition XCLl to NP-OVA LSP vaccine formulation did not increase its antitumour therapeutic effect. In the Part II, we assessed in HLA-A2/DR1 mice the immunogenicity of the Melan-AA27L LSP or the Melan-A26. 35 AA27l short synthetic peptide (SSP) used in conjunction with the saponin adjuvant QS21, aiming to identify a potent adjuvant formulation that elicits a quantitatively and qualitatively strong immune response to tumour antigens. We showed a high CTL immune response elicited by the use of Melan-A LSP or SSP with QS21, which both exerted similar killing capacity upon in vivo transfer of target cells expressing the Melan-A peptide in the context of HLA-A2 molecules. However, the response generated by the LSP immunisation comprised higher percentages of CD8+T cells of the central memory phenotype (CD44hl CD62L+ and CCR7+ CD62L+) than those of SSP immunisation, and most importantly, the strong LSP+QS21 response was strictly CD4+T cell-dependent, as shown upon CD4 T cell depletion. Altogether, these results suggest that both XCLl and QS21 may enhance the ability of LSP to prime CD8 specific T cell responses, and promote a long-term memory response. Therefore, these observations may have important implications for the design of protein or LSP-based cancer vaccines for specific immunotherapy of cancer -- Les vacans thérapeutiques contre le cancer visent à induire une forte et durable réponse immunitaire contre des cellules cancéreuses résiduelles. Cette réponse requiert la collaboration entre le système immunitaire inné, en particulier les cellules dendrites (DCs), et le système immunitaire adaptatif, en l'occurrence les lymphocytes TCD4 hdper et CD8 cytotoxiques. La mise au point d'adjuvants et de molécules mimant un agent pathogène tels les ligands TLRs ou d'autres agents facilitant l'internalisation d'antigènes, est essentielle pour casser la tolérance du système immunitaire contre les cellules cancéreuses afin de générer une réponse effectrice et mémoire contre la tumeur. L'utilisation de longs peptides synthétiques (LSPs) est une approche prometteuse du fait que leur présentation en tant qu'antigénes requiert leur internalisation et leur transformation par les cellules dendrites (DCs, qui sont les mieux à même d'éviter la tolérance immunitaire. Récemment une sous-population de DCs exprimant le récepteur XCR1 a été décrite comme ayant une capacité supérieure dans la cross-présentation d'antigènes, d'où un intérêt à développer des vaccins ciblant les DCs exprimant le XCR1. Durant ma thèse de doctorat, j'ai exploré différentes approches pour optimiser les vaccins avec LSPs. La première partie visait à cibler les XCR1-DCs à l'aide de la chemokine XCL1 spécifique du récepteur XCR1, soit sou s la forme de protéine de fusion XCL1-OVA LSP-Fc, soit associée à des nanoparticules. La deuxième partie a consisté à tester l'association des LSPs avec I adjuvant QS21 dérivant d'une saponine dans le but d'optimiser l'internalisation cytosolique des longs peptides. Les protéines de fusion XCLl-OVA-Fc développées dans la première partie de mon travail, ont démontré leur capacité de liaison spécifique sur les XCRl-DCs associée à leur capacité de chemo-attractio. Lorsque inclues dans une mmunisation de souris porteuse de tumeurs établies, ces protéines de fusion XCL1-0VA LSP-Fc et XCLl-Fc plus OVA LSP ont induites une forte réponse CDS OVA spécifique permettant la complète régression des tumeurs de modèle EL4- 0VA et un retard de croissance significatif de tumeurs de type B16-0VA. Dans le but d'optimiser le drainage des LSPs vers es noyaux lymphatiques, nous avons également testé les LSPs fixés de manière covalente à des nanoparticules co- injectees ou non avec la chemokine XCL1. Cette formulation a également permis une forte réponse CD8 accompagnée d'un effet thérapeutique significatif, mais l'addition de la chemokine XCL1 n'a pas ajouté d'effet anti-tumeur supplémentaire. Dans la deuxième partie de ma thèse, j'ai comparé l'immunogénicité de l'antigène humain Melan A soit sous la forme d un LSP incluant un épitope CD4 et CD8 ou sous la forme d'un peptide ne contenant que l'épitope CD8 (SSP) Les peptides ont été formulés avec l'adjuvant QS21 et testés dans un modèle de souris transgéniques pour les MHC let II humains, respectivement le HLA-A2 et DR1. Les deux peptides LSP et SSP ont généré une forte réponse CD8 similaire assoc.ee a une capacité cytotoxique équivalente lors du transfert in vivo de cellules cibles présentant le peptide SSP' Cependant les souris immunisées avec le Melan A LSP présentaient un pourcentage plus élevé de CD8 ayant un Phénotype «centra, memory» (CD44h' CD62L+ and CCR7+ CD62L+) que les souris immunisées avec le SSP, même dix mois après I'immunisation. Par ailleurs, la réponse CD8 au Melan A LSP était strictement dépendante des lymphocytes CD4, contrairement à l'immunisation par le Melan A SSP qui n'était pas affectée. Dans l'ensemble ces résultats suggèrent que la chemokine XCL1 et l'adjuvant QS21 améliorent la réponse CD8 à un long peptide synthétique, favorisant ainsi le développement d'une réponse anti-tumeur mémoire durable. Ces observations pourraient être utiles au développement de nouveau vaccins thérapeutiques contre les tumeurs.

Consumption, investment and life insurance strategies with heterogeneous discounting

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza l'efecte que comporta l'introducció de preferències inconsistents temporalment sobre les decisions òptimes de consum, inversió i compra d'assegurança de vida. En concret, es pretén recollir la creixent importància que un individu dóna a la herència que deixa i a la riquesa disponible per a la seva jubilació al llarg de la seva vida laboral. Amb aquesta finalitat, es parteix d'un model estocàstic en temps continu amb temps final aleatori, i s'introdueix el descompte heterogeni, considerant un agent amb una distribució de vida residual coneguda. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es resol una equació de programació dinàmica no estàndard. Per al cas de funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA es troben solucions explícites. Finalment, els resultats obtinguts s'il·lustren numèricament.

Nuclear expansion with excitation

The expansion of an isolated hot spherical nucleus with excitation energy and its caloric curve are studied in a thermodynamic model with the SkM∗ force as the nuclear effective two-body inter-action. The calculated results are shown to compare well with the recent experimental data from energetic nuclear collisions. The fluctuations in temperature and density are also studied. They are seen to build up very rapidly beyond an excitation energy of ∼9 MeV/u. Volume-conserving quadrupole deformation in addition to expansion indicates , however, nuclear disassembly above an excitation energy of ∼4 MeV/u.

Growth, unemployment and wage inertia

We introduce wage setting via efficiency wages in the neoclassical one-sector growth model to study the growth effects of wage inertia. We compare the dynamic equilibrium of an economy with wage inertia with the equilibrium of an economy without it. We show that wage inertia affects the long run employment rate and that the transitional dynamics of the main economic variables will be different because wages are a state variable when wage inertia is introduced. In particular, we show that the model with wage inertia can explain some growth patterns that cannot be explained when wages are flexible. We also study the growth effects of permanent technological and fiscal policy shocks in these two economies.

Derivation of an observer model adapted to irregular signals based on convolution channels.

Anthropomorphic model observers are mathe- matical algorithms which are applied to images with the ultimate goal of predicting human signal detection and classification accuracy across varieties of backgrounds, image acquisitions and display conditions. A limitation of current channelized model observers is their inability to handle irregularly-shaped signals, which are common in clinical images, without a high number of directional channels. Here, we derive a new linear model observer based on convolution channels which we refer to as the "Filtered Channel observer" (FCO), as an extension of the channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) and the nonprewhitening with an eye filter (NPWE) observer. In analogy to the CHO, this linear model observer can take the form of a single template with an external noise term. To compare with human observers, we tested signals with irregular and asymmetrical shapes spanning the size of lesions down to those of microcalfications in 4-AFC breast tomosynthesis detection tasks, with three different contrasts for each case. Whereas humans uniformly outperformed conventional CHOs, the FCO observer outperformed humans for every signal with only one exception. Additive internal noise in the models allowed us to degrade model performance and match human performance. We could not match all the human performances with a model with a single internal noise component for all signal shape, size and contrast conditions. This suggests that either the internal noise might vary across signals or that the model cannot entirely capture the human detection strategy. However, the FCO model offers an efficient way to apprehend human observer performance for a non-symmetric signal.

The Besançon Galaxy Model renewed. I. Constraints on the Galactic thin disc evolution from Tycho data

Context. The understanding of Galaxy evolution can be facilitated by the use of population synthesis models, which allow to test hypotheses on the star formation history, star evolution, as well as chemical and dynamical evolution of the Galaxy. Aims. The new version of the Besanc¸on Galaxy Model (hereafter BGM) aims to provide a more flexible and powerful tool to investigate the Initial Mass Function (IMF) and Star Formation Rate (SFR) of the Galactic disc. Methods. We present a new strategy for the generation of thin disc stars which assumes the IMF, SFR and evolutionary tracks as free parameters. We have updated most of the ingredients for the star count production and, for the first time, binary stars are generated in a consistent way. We keep in this new scheme the local dynamical self-consistency as in Bienayme et al (1987). We then compare simulations from the new model with Tycho-2 data and the local luminosity function, as a first test to verify and constrain the new ingredients. The effects of changing thirteen different ingredients of the model are systematically studied. Results. For the first time, a full sky comparison is performed between BGM and data. This strategy allows to constrain the IMF slope at high masses which is found to be close to 3.0, excluding a shallower slope such as Salpeter"s one. The SFR is found decreasing whatever IMF is assumed. The model is compatible with a local dark matter density of 0.011 M pc−3 implying that there is no compelling evidence for significant amount of dark matter in the disc. While the model is fitted to Tycho2 data, a magnitude limited sample with V<11, we check that it is still consistent with fainter stars. Conclusions. The new model constitutes a new basis for further comparisons with large scale surveys and is being prepared to become a powerful tool for the analysis of the Gaia mission data.

Publication trends of shared decision making in 15 high impact medical journals: a full-text review with bibliometric analysis.

BACKGROUND: Shared Decision Making (SDM) is increasingly advocated as a model for medical decision making. However, there is still low use of SDM in clinical practice. High impact factor journals might represent an efficient way for its dissemination. We aimed to identify and characterize publication trends of SDM in 15 high impact medical journals. METHODS: We selected the 15 general and internal medicine journals with the highest impact factor publishing original articles, letters and editorials. We retrieved publications from 1996 to 2011 through the full-text search function on each journal website and abstracted bibliometric data. We included publications of any type containing the phrase "shared decision making" or five other variants in their abstract or full text. These were referred to as SDM publications. A polynomial Poisson regression model with logarithmic link function was used to assess the evolution across the period of the number of SDM publications according to publication characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 1285 SDM publications out of 229,179 publications in 15 journals from 1996 to 2011. The absolute number of SDM publications by journal ranged from 2 to 273 over 16 years. SDM publications increased both in absolute and relative numbers per year, from 46 (0.32% relative to all publications from the 15 journals) in 1996 to 165 (1.17%) in 2011. This growth was exponential (P < 0.01). We found fewer research publications (465, 36.2% of all SDM publications) than non-research publications, which included non-systematic reviews, letters, and editorials. The increase of research publications across time was linear. Full-text search retrieved ten times more SDM publications than a similar PubMed search (1285 vs. 119 respectively). CONCLUSION: This review in full-text showed that SDM publications increased exponentially in major medical journals from 1996 to 2011. This growth might reflect an increased dissemination of the SDM concept to the medical community.

Decoupled evolution of floral traits and climatic preferences in a clade of Neotropical Gesneriaceae.

BACKGROUND: Major factors influencing the phenotypic diversity of a lineage can be recognized by characterizing the extent and mode of trait evolution between related species. Here, we compared the evolutionary dynamics of traits associated with floral morphology and climatic preferences in a clade composed of the genera Codonanthopsis, Codonanthe and Nematanthus (Gesneriaceae). To test the mode and specific components that lead to phenotypic diversity in this group, we performed a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of combined nuclear and plastid DNA sequences and modeled the evolution of quantitative traits related to flower shape and size and to climatic preferences. We propose an alternative approach to display graphically the complex dynamics of trait evolution along a phylogenetic tree using a wide range of evolutionary scenarios. RESULTS: Our results demonstrated heterogeneous trait evolution. Floral shapes displaced into separate regimes selected by the different pollinator types (hummingbirds versus insects), while floral size underwent a clade-specific evolution. Rates of evolution were higher for the clade that is hummingbird pollinated and experienced flower resupination, compared with species pollinated by bees, suggesting a relevant role of plant-pollinator interactions in lowland rainforest. The evolution of temperature preferences is best explained by a model with distinct selective regimes between the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and the other biomes, whereas differentiation along the precipitation axis was characterized by higher rates, compared with temperature, and no regime or clade-specific patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows different selective regimes and clade-specific patterns in the evolution of morphological and climatic components during the diversification of Neotropical species. Our new graphical visualization tool allows the representation of trait trajectories under parameter-rich models, thus contributing to a better understanding of complex evolutionary dynamics.

Cyclosporine A kinetics in brain cell cultures and its potential of crossing the blood-brain barrier.

There is an increasing need to develop improved systems for predicting the safety of xenobiotics. However, to move beyond hazard identification the available concentration of the test compounds needs to be incorporated. In this study cyclosporine A (CsA) was used as a model compound to assess the kinetic profiles in two rodent brain cell cultures after single and repeated exposures. CsA induced-cyclophilin B (Cyp-B) secretion was also determined as CsA-specific pharmacodynamic endpoint. Since CsA is a potent p-glycoprotein substrate, the ability of this compound to cross the blood-brain barrier (BBB) was also investigated using an in vitro bovine model with repeated exposures up to 14days. Finally, CsA uptake mechanisms were studied using a parallel artificial membrane assay (PAMPA) in combination with a Caco-2 model. Kinetic results indicate a low intracellular CsA uptake, with no marked bioaccumulation or biotransformation. In addition, only low CsA amounts crossed the BBB. PAMPA and Caco-2 experiments revealed that CsA is mostly trapped to lipophilic compartments and exits the cell apically via active transport. Thus, although CsA is unlikely to enter the brain at cytotoxic concentrations, it may cause alterations in electrical activity and is likely to increase the CNS concentration of other compounds by occupying the BBBs extrusion capacity. Such an integrated testing system, incorporating BBB, brain culture models and kinetics could be applied for assessing neurotoxicity potential of compounds.

Accessing forgotten memory traces from long-term memory via visual movements

Because memory retrieval often requires overt responses, it is difficult to determine to what extend forgetting occurs as a problem in explicit accessing of long-term memory traces. In this study, we used eye-tracking measures in combination with a behavioural task that favoured high forgetting rates to investigate the existence of memory traces from long-term memory in spite of failure in accessing them consciously. In 2 experiments, participants were encouraged to encode a large set of sound-picture56 location associations. In a later test, sounds were presented and participants were instructed to visually scan, before a verbal memory report, for the correct location of the associated pictures in an empty screen. We found the reactivation of associated memories by sound cues at test biased oculomotor behaviour towards locations congruent with memory representations, even when participants failed to consciously provide a memory report of it. These findings reveal the emergence of a memory-guided behaviour that can be used to map internal representations of forgotten memories from long-term memory.

A cognitive hierarchy model of behavior in the action commitment game

We apply the cognitive hierarchy model of Camerer et al. (Q J Econ 119(3):861-898, 2004)-where players have different levels of reasoning-to Huck et al. (Games Econ Behav 38:240-264, 2002) discrete version of Hamilton and Slutsky (Games Econ Behav 2:29-46, 1990) action commitment game-a duopoly with endogenous timing of entry. We show that, for an empirically reasonable average number of thinking steps, the model rules out Stackelberg equilibria, generates Cournot outcomes including delay, and outcomes where the first mover commits to a quantity higher than Cournot but lower than Stackelberg leader. We show that a cognitive hierarchy model with quantal responses can explain the most important features of the experimental data on the action commitment game in (2002). In order to gauge the success of the model in fitting the data, we compare it to a noisy Nash model. We find that the cognitive hierarchy model with quantal responses fits the data better than the noisy Nash model.

Vasicek interest rate model

Tässä tutkielmassa estimoidaan korkomallin parametrit Maximum likelihood metodilla sekä näytetään kuinka mallintaa lyhyen koron evoluutiota ja korkokäyrän rakennetta.

Transgenic mice overexpressing neuropeptide Y: An experimental model of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases

Neuropeptide Y (NPY) is an abundant neurotransmitter in the brain and sympathetic nervous system (SNS). Hypothalamic NPY is known to be a key player in food intake and energy expenditure. NPY’s role in cardiovascular regulation has also been shown. In humans, a Leucine 7 to Proline 7 single nucleotide polymorphism (p.L7P) in the signal peptide of the NPY gene has been associated with traits of metabolic syndrome. The p.L7P subjects also show increased stress-related release of NPY, which suggests that more NPY is produced and released from SNS. The main objective of this study was to create a novel mouse model with noradrenergic cell-targeted overexpression of NPY, and to characterize the metabolic and vascular phenotype of this model. The mouse model was named OE-NPY^DBH mouse. Overexpression of NPY in SNS and brain noradrenergic neurons led to increased adiposity without significant weight gain or increased food intake. The mice showed lipid accumulation in the liver at young age, which together with adiposity led to impaired glucose tolerance and hyperinsulinemia with age. The mice displayed stress-related increased mean arterial blood pressure, increased plasma levels of catecholamines and enhanced SNS activity measured by GDP binding activity to brown adipose tissue mitochondria. Sexual dimorphism in NPY secretion pattern in response to stress was also seen. In an experimental model of vascular injury, the OE-NPY^DBH mice developed more pronounced neointima formation compared with wildtype controls. These results together with the clinical data indicate that NPY in noradrenergic cells plays an important role in the pathogenesis of metabolic syndrome and related diseases. Furthermore, new insights on the role of the extrahypothalamic NPY in the process have been obtained. The OE-NPY^DBH model provides an important tool for further stress and metabolic syndrome-related studies.