Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Marginalising the mainstream : a signed performance of The Miracle Worker places deaf issues centre-stage

William Gibson’s The Miracle Worker was staged at the Brisbane Powerhouse June 2009 by Crossbow Productions. In this adaption, people with hearing impairment were privileged through the use of shadow-signing, unscripted signing and the appropriation of signing as a theatrical language in itself. 250 people living with hearing impairment attended the production, 70 had never attended a theatrical event before. During the post-performance discussions hearing audience members expressed feelings of displacement through experiencing the culture of the deaf society and not grasping some of the ideas. This paper argues that this inversion enhanced meaning making for all and illustrates a way forward to encourage the signing of more theatrical events.

The naked audience : audience performance at a recent staging of Gibson’s "the Miracle Worker"

Contemporary mainstream theatre audiences observe etiquette strictures that regulate behaviour. As Baz Kershaw argues, “the idea of the passive audience for performance has been associated usually with mainstream theatre.” This paper explores a mainstream event where the extant contract of audience silence was replaced with a raw, emotional audience response that continued into the post-performance discussion. William Gibson’s The Miracle Worker was performed by Crossbow Productions at the Brisbane Powerhouse to an audience made up of mainstream theatre patrons and people living with hearing and visual impairment. Various elements such as shadow signing and tactile tours worked metatheatrically and self-referentially to heighten audience awareness. During the performances the verbal and non-verbal responses of the audience were so pervasive that the audience became not only co-creators of the performance text but performers of a rich audience text that had a dramatic impact on the theatrical experience for audience and actors alike. During the post-performance discussion the audience performers spilled onto the stage interacting with the actors, extending the pleasure of the experience. This paper discusses how in privileging the audience as co-creators and performers, the chasm between stage and audience was bridged. The audiences’ performance changed, enriched and created new meanings for each performance.

Comparison of U.S., Canadian, and Australian participants' performance on the Algase Wandering Scale-Version 2 (AWS-V2)

Background Wandering represents a major problem in the management of patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In this study we examined the utility of the Algase Wandering Scale (AWS), a newly developed psychometric instrument that asks caregivers to assess the likelihood of wandering behavior. Methods The AWS was administered to the caregivers of 40 AD patients and total and subscale scores were examined in relation to measures of mental and functional status, depressive symptoms and medication usage. Results AWS scores were comparable, though slightly lower, than those normative values previously published. Higher scores were associated with more severe dementia. The Negative Outcome subscale showed a significant increase in reported falls or injuries in association with anti-depressant use. Conclusions These data provide some construct validation for the AWS as a potentially useful scale to assess wandering behaviors in AD.

Performance study of two different compensating devices in a custom power park

Simulation study of a custom power park (CPP) is presented. It is assumed that the park contains unbalanced and nonlinear loads in addition to a sensitive load. Two different types of compensators are used separately to protect the sensitive load against unbalance and distortion caused by the other loads. It has been shown that a shunt compensator can regulate the voltage of the CPP bus, whereas the series compensator can only regulate the sensitive load terminal voltage. Additional issues such as the load transfer through a static transfer switch, detection of sag/fault etc. are also discussed. The concepts are validated through PSCAD/EMTDC simulation studies on a sample distribution system.

Performance evaluation of an adaptive travel time prediction model

This paper presents a travel time prediction model and evaluates its performance and transferability. Advanced Travelers Information Systems (ATIS) are gaining more and more importance, increasing the need for accurate, timely and useful information to the travelers. Travel time information quantifies the traffic condition in an easy to understand way for the users. The proposed travel time prediction model is based on an efficient use of nearest neighbor search. The model is calibrated for optimal performance using Genetic Algorithms. Results indicate better performance by using the proposed model than the presently used naïve model.

Sensitivity of the lane change test as a measure of in-vehicle system demand

The Lane Change Test (LCT) is one of the growing number of methods developed to quantify driving performance degradation brought about by the use of in-vehicle devices. Beyond its validity and reliability, for such a test to be of practical use, it must also be sensitive to the varied demands of individual tasks. The current study evaluated the ability of several recent LCT lateral control and event detection parameters to discriminate between visual-manual and cognitive surrogate In-Vehicle Information System tasks with different levels of demand. Twenty-seven participants (mean age 24.4 years) completed a PC version of the LCT while performing visual search and math problem solving tasks. A number of the lateral control metrics were found to be sensitive to task differences, but the event detection metrics were less able to discriminate between tasks. The mean deviation and lane excursion measures were able to distinguish between the visual and cognitive tasks, but were less sensitive to the different levels of task demand. The other LCT metrics examined were less sensitive to task differences. A major factor influencing the sensitivity of at least some of the LCT metrics could be the type of lane change instructions given to participants. The provision of clear and explicit lane change instructions and further refinement of its metrics will be essential for increasing the utility of the LCT as an evaluation tool.

What do IPAQ questions mean to older adults? Lessons from cognitive interviews

Background Most questionnaires used for physical activity (PA) surveillance have been developed for adults aged ≤65 years. Given the health benefits of PA for older adults and the aging of the population, it is important to include adults aged 65+ years in PA surveillance. However, few studies have examined how well older adults understand PA surveillance questionnaires. This study aimed to document older adults’ understanding of questions from the International PA Questionnaire (IPAQ), which is used worldwide for PA surveillance. Methods Participants were 41 community-dwelling adults aged 65-89 years. They each completed IPAQ in a face-to-face semi-structured interview, using the “think-aloud” method, in which they expressed their thoughts out loud as they answered IPAQ questions. Interviews were transcribed and coded according to a three-stage model: understanding the intent of the question; performing the primary task (conducting the mental operations required to formulate a response); and response formatting (mapping the response into pre-specified response options). Results Most difficulties occurred during the understanding and performing the primary task stages. Errors included recalling PA in an “average” week, not in the previous 7 days; including PA lasting ≤10 minutes/session; reporting the same PA twice or thrice; and including the total time of an activity for which only a part of that time was at the intensity specified in the question. Participants were unclear what activities fitted within a question’s scope and used a variety of strategies for determining the frequency and duration of their activities. Participants experienced more difficulties with the moderate-intensity PA and walking questions than with the vigorous-intensity PA questions. The sitting time question, particularly difficult for many participants, required the use of an answer strategy different from that used to answer questions about PA. Conclusions These findings indicate a need for caution in administering IPAQ to adults aged ≥65 years. Most errors resulted in over-reporting, although errors resulting in under-reporting were also noted. Given the nature of the errors made by participants, it is possible that similar errors occur when IPAQ is used in younger populations and that the errors identified could be minimized with small modifications to IPAQ.

Investigating the hydrodynamic performance of a gross pollutant trap

Field studies show that the internal screens in a gross pollutant trap (GPT) are often clogged with organic matter, due to infrequent cleaning. The hydrodynamic performance of a GPT with fully blocked screens was comprehensively investigated under a typical range of onsite operating conditions. Using an acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV), velocity profiles across three critical sections of the GPT were measured and integrated to examine the net fluid flow at each section. The data revealed that when the screens are fully blocked, the flow structure within the GPT radically changes. Consequently, the capture/retention performance of the device rapidly deteriorates. Good agreement was achieved between the experimental and the previous 2D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) velocity profiles for the lower GPT inlet flow conditions.

Invention and business performance in the tissue-engineering industry

Tissue engineering is a young and interdisciplinary scientific discipline but it offers exciting opportunities to improve the quality of health care for hundreds of thousands of patients. Lured by its potential, several start-up companies, pharmaceutical corporations, and medical device enterprises alike are investing heavily in this sector. Invention is a key driver of competition in this sector. In this study, we aim to explain the variation in inventive output across the different firms in the sector. Our major premise is that firms that forge alliances will be able to tap into the expertise of their partners and thus improve their chances of inventive output. We further argue that alliances that enable technology acquisition or learning will enhance the inventive output of firms more than other kinds of alliances. We measure the inventive output of a company by the number of patents filed. On the basis of a preliminary analysis of seven companies, we find support for the hypotheses. We also argue that, to achieve commercial success, firms need to manage time to market (through alliances or otherwise), have a global outlook, nurture their financial resources, and attain critical mass through mergers.

On the endogeneity of the pay-performance relationship in professional soccer

In this reply we show that the Nüesch (2009) comment paper to our initial contribution (Torgler and Schmidt 2007) has several shortcomings. He suggests that professional soccer wages seem to buy talent rather than motivation. We therefore provide a larger set of talent proxies and estimations to check whether this assertion is correct. Our results indicate that his conclusion is problematic. We still observe a strong motivational effect, and in some cases the effect is even larger than the talent effect. A further key problem in Nüesch’s contribution is the fact that he neglects to consider the relevance of the relative salary situation.