Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Association of the SNP rs2623047 in the HSPG modification enzyme SULF1 with an Australian Caucasian Breast Cancer Cohort

Breast cancer is the second most common cancer worldwide and the most common cancer reported in women. This malignant tumour is characterised by a number of specific features including uncontrolled cell proliferation. It ranks fifth in the world as a cause of cancer death in women. Early diagnosis increases 5 year survival rates up to 95%. Heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs) are complex proteins composed of a core protein to which a number of highly sulfated side chains are synthesised by a highly co-ordinated process resulting in distinct sulfation patterns, which determine specific interations with cell-signaling partners including growth factors, their receptors, ligands and morphogens. The enzymes responsible for chain initiation, elongation and sulfation are critical for creating HS chain variability conferring biological functionality. This study investigated single nucleotide polymorphism in SULF1, the enzyme responsible for the 6-0 desulfation of heparan sulfate side chains. We investigated this SNP in an Australian Caucasian case-control breast cancer population and found a significant association between SULF1 and breast cancer at both the allelic and genotypic level (allele, p=0.016; genotype, p=0.032). Our results suggest the res2623047 SNP in SULF1 may impact breast cancer susceptibility. Specifically, the T allele of rs2623047 in SULF1 is associated with a increased risk of developing breast cancer in our cohort. The identification of markers including SULF1 may improve detection of this disease at its earliest stages improving patient treatment and prognosis.

Therapeutic options for metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer : has the situation improved?

Limited treatment options for Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) still remain a major challenge. Despite therapeutic advances, most patients with malignant PCa have a poor prognosis. Since the year 2000, we have rapidly expanded our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying CRPC and this has led to an unprecedented number of new drug approvals within a short span of time. Recently, four new agents namely Abiraterone Acetate, Enzalutamide, Cabazitaxel, and Radium-223 have been shown to be effective in the post-chemotherapy setting in CRPC. The continued dependency of CRPC on androgen synthesis has seen the development of a number of new anti-androgen therapies, with abiraterone acetate and Enzalutamide being the most promising discoveries. Immunotherapeutic approaches have also found their niche in PCa with Sipuleucel-T shown to be effective in minimally asymptomatic CRPC. Research focussed on bone-targeting therapies has witnessed the arrival of promising new drugs with Denosumab and Radium-223 displaying improved survival of patients with CRPC. This review briefly discusses the findings and limitations from ongoing and completed clinical trials of novel treatments and regimens. In addition, potential mechanisms of therapy resistance and future challenges are discussed.

Elucidating the host-pathogen interactions between in vitro human cells and enterovirus 71 in Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD)

This study has provided further understanding of the pathogenesis of EV71, one of the major etiological agents associated with significant mortality in Hand, Foot and Mouth disease. Elucidating the host-pathogen interaction and the mechanism that the virus uses to bypass host defence systems to establish infection will aid in the development of potential antiviral therapeutics against EV71.

Emotion and its regulation predicts gluten-free diet adherence in adults with coeliac disease

Objective The aim of this study was to explore the mediating and moderating relationships between emotional perceptions of coeliac disease, negative emotional states, emotion regulation, emotional eating and gluten-free diet adherence. Method Adults with coeliac disease (N = 253) were recruited from state organisations of Coeliac Australia and completed an online questionnaire measuring illness perceptions, emotion regulation strategies, negative emotional states, emotional eating and gluten-free diet adherence. Results Participants' levels of depression and anxiety, but not stress or emotional eating, were associated with gluten-free diet adherence. Emotional perception of coeliac disease was also associated with gluten-free diet adherence, and this relationship was partially mediated by depression and anxiety. Furthermore, the emotion regulation strategies of cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression moderated the relationship between emotional perceptions and depression, but not emotional perceptions and anxiety. Conclusions Interventions to improve dietary adherence for adults with coeliac disease displaying depressive symptoms should aim to increase the use of cognitive reappraisal and reduce the use of expressive suppression. Future studies should also explore mechanisms that may moderate the relationship between emotional perceptions and anxiety.

Childhood atopic dermatitis : a cross-sectional study of relationships between child and parent factors, atopic dermatitis management, and disease severity

Background: Successful management of atopic dermatitis poses a significant and ongoing challenge to parents of affected children. Despite frequent reports of child behaviour problems and parenting difficulties, there is a paucity of literature examining relationships between child behaviour and parents' confidence and competence with treatment. Objectives: To examine relationships between child, parent, and family variables, parents' self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis, self-reported performance of management tasks, observed competence with providing treatment, and atopic dermatitis severity. Design: Cross-sectional study design. Participants A sample of 64 parent-child dyads was recruited from the dermatology clinic of a paediatric tertiary referral hospital in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Parents completed self-report questionnaires examining child behaviour, parents' adjustment, parenting conflict, parents' relationship satisfaction, and parents' self-efficacy and self-reported performance of key management tasks. Severity of atopic dermatitis was assessed using the Scoring Atopic Dermatitis index. A routine home treatment session was observed, and parents' competence in carrying out the child's treatment assessed. Results: Pearson's and Spearman's correlations identified significant relationships (p< .05) between parents' self-efficacy and disease severity, child behaviour difficulties, parent depression and stress, parenting conflict, and relationship satisfaction. There were also significant relationships between each of these variables and parents' self-reported performance of management tasks. More profound child behaviour difficulties were associated with more severe atopic dermatitis and greater parent stress. Using multiple linear regressions, significant proportions of variation in parents' self-efficacy and self-reported task performance were explained by child behaviour difficulties and parents' formal education. Self-efficacy emerged as a likely mediator for relationships between both child behaviour and parents' education, and self-reported task performance. Direct observation of treatment sessions revealed strong relationships between parents' treatment competence and parents' self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance. Less competent task performance was also associated with greater parent-reported child behaviour difficulties, parent depression and stress, parenting conflict, and relationship dissatisfaction. Conclusion: This study revealed the importance of child behaviour to parents' confidence and practices in the context of atopic dermatitis management. Children with more severe atopic dermatitis are at risk of presenting with challenging behaviour problems and their parents struggle to manage the condition successfully.

Single voxel Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopic (1H-MRS) analysis of deep brain structures after traumatic prefrontal brain injury (TBI) in rat

Chronic difficulties arising from mild brain injury (TBI) are difficult to predict because the processes underlying changes after TBI are poorly understood. In mild brain injury the extent of neuropsychiatric and cognitive symptoms correspond poorly to overt tissue loss (Barth 1983; Liu 2010). Cellular, immune and hormonal cascades occurring after injury and continuing during the healing process may impact uninjured brain regions sensitive to the effects of physiological and emotional stress, which receive projections from the injury site. Changes in these most basic properties due to injury or disease have profound implications for virtually every aspect of brain function through disruption of neurotransmitter, neuroendocrine and metabolic systems. In order to screen for changes in transmitter and metabolic activity, in this study we developed Single voxel proton Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (1H-MRS) for use in both injured and control animals. We first evaluated if 1H-MRS could be used to evaluate in vivo, alterations in brain metabolism and catabolism of the prefrontal cortex, amygdala and ventral hippocampus in both control and injured animals after controlled cortical impact injury to the rat prefrontal cortex. We found that metabolite measurements for Myo-Inositol, Choline, creatine, Glutamate+Glutamine, and N-acetyl-acetate are attainable in deep brain structures in vivo in injured and controls rats. We next seek to evaluate longitudinally, in vivo, alterations in brain metabolism and catabolism of the prefrontal cortex, amygdala and ventral hippocampus during the first month after controlled cortical impact injury to the rat prefrontal cortex. These ongoing studies will provide data on the changes in transmitters and metabolites over time in injured and non-injured subjects. These studies address some of the fundamental questions about how mild brain injury has such diverse effects on overall brain health and function.

Using internet search queries for infectious disease surveillance: screening diseases for suitability

Background Internet-based surveillance systems provide a novel approach to monitoring infectious diseases. Surveillance systems built on internet data are economically, logistically and epidemiologically appealing and have shown significant promise. The potential for these systems has increased with increased internet availability and shifts in health-related information seeking behaviour. This approach to monitoring infectious diseases has, however, only been applied to single or small groups of select diseases. This study aims to systematically investigate the potential for developing surveillance and early warning systems using internet search data, for a wide range of infectious diseases. Methods Official notifications for 64 infectious diseases in Australia were downloaded and correlated with frequencies for 164 internet search terms for the period 2009–13 using Spearman’s rank correlations. Time series cross correlations were performed to assess the potential for search terms to be used in construction of early warning systems. Results Notifications for 17 infectious diseases (26.6%) were found to be significantly correlated with a selected search term. The use of internet metrics as a means of surveillance has not previously been described for 12 (70.6%) of these diseases. The majority of diseases identified were vaccine-preventable, vector-borne or sexually transmissible; cross correlations, however, indicated that vector-borne and vaccine preventable diseases are best suited for development of early warning systems. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that internet-based surveillance systems have broader applicability to monitoring infectious diseases than has previously been recognised. Furthermore, internet-based surveillance systems have a potential role in forecasting emerging infectious disease events, especially for vaccine-preventable and vector-borne diseases

Hand, foot and mouth disease in China: Evaluating an automated system for the detection of outbreaks

Objective To evaluate the performance of China’s infectious disease automated alert and response system in the detection of outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease. Methods We estimated size, duration and delay in reporting HFM disease outbreaks from cases notified between 1 May 2008 and 30 April 2010 and between 1 May 2010 and 30 April 2012, before and after automatic alert and response included HFM disease. Sensitivity, specificity and timeliness of detection of aberrations in the incidence of HFM disease outbreaks were estimated by comparing automated detections to observations of public health staff. Findings The alert and response system recorded 106 005 aberrations in the incidence of HFM disease between 1 May 2010 and 30 April 2012 – a mean of 5.6 aberrations per 100 days in each county that reported HFM disease. The response system had a sensitivity of 92.7% and a specificity of 95.0%. The mean delay between the reporting of the first case of an outbreak and detection of that outbreak by the response system was 2.1 days. Between the first and second study periods, the mean size of an HFM disease outbreak decreased from 19.4 to 15.8 cases and the mean interval between the onset and initial reporting of such an outbreak to the public health emergency reporting system decreased from 10.0 to 9.1 days. Conclusion The automated alert and response system shows good sensitivity in the detection of HFM disease outbreaks and appears to be relatively rapid. Continued use of this system should allow more effective prevention and limitation of such outbreaks in China.

Mesenchymal stromal cells transiently alter the inflammatory milieu post-transplant to delay graft-versus-host disease

Background: Multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells suppress T-cell function in vitro, a property that has underpinned their use in treating clinical steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. However the potential of mesenchymal stromal cells to resolve graft-versus-host disease is confounded by a paucity of pre-clinical data delineating their immunomodulatory effects in vivo. Design and Methods: We examined the influence of timing and dose of donor-derived mesenchymal stromal cells on the kinetics of graft-versus-host disease in two murine models of graft-versus-host disease (major histocompatibility complex-mismatched: UBI-GFP/BL6 [H-2b]→BALB/c [H-2d] and the sibling transplant mimic, UBI-GFP/BL6 [H-2b]→BALB.B [H-2b]) using clinically relevant conditioning regimens. We also examined the effect of mesenchymal stromal cell infusion on bone marrow and spleen cellular composition and cytokine secretion in transplant recipients. Results: Despite T-cell suppression in vitro, mesenchymal stromal cells delayed but did not prevent graft-versus-host disease in the major histocompatibility complex-mismatched model. In the sibling transplant model, however, 30% of mesenchymal stromal cell-treated mice did not develop graft-versus-host disease. The timing of administration and dose of the mesenchymal stromal cells influenced their effectiveness in attenuating graft-versus-host disease, such that a low dose of mesenchymal stromal cells administered early was more effective than a high dose of mesenchymal stromal cells given late. Compared to control-treated mice, mesenchymal stromal cell-treated mice had significant reductions in serum and splenic interferon-γ, an important mediator of graft-versus-host disease. Conclusions: Mesenchymal stromal cells appear to delay death from graft-versus-host disease by transiently altering the inflammatory milieu and reducing levels of interferon-γ. Our data suggest that both the timing of infusion and the dose of mesenchymal stromal cells likely influence these cells’ effectiveness in attenuating graft-versus-host disease.

Developing a therapeutic anti-dendritic cell antibody to prevent graft versus host disease

Host and donor dendritic cells (DC) stimulate alloreactive donor T lymphocytes, and initiate GVHD. We have shown that polyclonal antibody to the DC surface activation marker human CD83 (anti hCD83), which depletes activated DC, can prevent human DC and T cell induced lethal xenogeneic GVHD in SCID mice without impairing T cell mediated anti-leukaemic and anti-viral (CMV and influenza) immunity (J Exp Med 2009; 206: 387). Therefore, we made and tested a polyclonal anti mouse CD83 (RAM83) antibody in murine HSCT models and developed a human mAb against hCD83 as a potential new therapeutic immunosuppressive agent.

Arabic translation, adaptation and modification of the dialysis symptom index for chronic kidney disease stages four and five

Background Symptom burden in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is poorly understood. To date, the majority of research focuses on single symptoms and there is a lack of suitable multidimensional symptom measures. The purpose of this study was to modify, translate, cross-culturally adapt and psychometrically analyse the Dialysis Symptom Index (DSI). Methods The study methods involved four phases: modification, translation, pilot-testing with a bilingual non-CKD sample and then psychometric testing with the target population. Content validity was assessed using an expert panel. Inter-rater agreement, test-retest reliability and Cronbach’s alpha coefficient were calculated to demonstrate reliability of the modified DSI. Discriminative and convergent validity were assessed to demonstrate construct validity. Results Content validity index during translation was 0.98. In the pilot study with 25 bilingual students a moderate to perfect agreement (Kappa statistic = 0.60-1.00) was found between English and Arabic versions of the modified DSI. The main study recruited 433 patients CKD with stages 4 and 5. The modified DSI was able to discriminate between non-dialysis and dialysis groups (p < 0.001) and demonstrated convergent validity with domains of the Kidney Disease Quality of Life short form. Excellent test-retest and internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = 0.91) reliability were also demonstrated. Conclusion The Arabic version of the modified DSI demonstrated good psychometric properties, measures the multidimensional nature of symptoms and can be used to assess symptom burden at different stages of CKD. The modified instrument, renamed the CKD Symptom Burden Index (CKD-SBI), should encourage greater clinical and research attention to symptom burden in CKD.

Psychosocial functioning in patients with alcohol-related liver disease post liver transplantation

Emotional and role functioning difficulties are associated with chronic alcohol use and liver disease. Little is known about prospective changes in psychological and psychosocial functioning following orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) amongst patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD). We aimed to assess the functioning of this patient group post liver transplantation. Comprehensive psychosocial assessment of depression (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI]), anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-Form X [STAI]) and psychosocial adjustment (Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale-Self-Report version [PAIS-SR]) was conducted with 42 ALD patients available for pre and post OLT testing. Dependence severity was assessed by the Brief Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (bMAST). Significant reductions in average anxiety and depression symptoms were observed 12-months post-OLT. Significant improvements in psychosocial adjustment to illness were also reported. Patients with higher levels of alcohol dependence severity pre transplant assessment improved comparably to those with lower levels of dependence. In summary, the study found that OLT contributed to reducing overall levels of mood and anxiety symptoms in ALD patients, approximating general (non-clinical) population norms. Psychosocial adjustment also improved significantly post liver transplantation.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to childhood and maternal undernutrition in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the disease burden attributable to being underweight as an indicator of undernutrition in children under 5 years of age and in pregnant women for the year 2000. DESIGN World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. The 1999 National Food Consumption Survey prevalence of underweight classified in three low weight-for-age categories was compared with standard growth charts to estimate population-attributable fractions for mortality and morbidity outcomes, based on increased risk for each category and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for South Africa in 2000. Maternal underweight, leading to an increased risk of intra-uterine growth retardation and further risk of low birth weight (LBW), was also assessed using the approach adopted by the global assessment. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Children under 5 years of age and pregnant women. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from protein- energy malnutrition and a fraction of those from diarrhoeal disease, pneumonia, malaria, other non- HIV/AIDS infectious and parasitic conditions in children aged 0 - 4 years, and LBW. RESULTS Among children under 5 years, 11.8% were underweight. In the same age group, 11,808 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 11,100 - 12,642) or 12.3% (95% uncertainty interval 11.5 - 13.1%) were attributable to being underweight. Protein-energy malnutrition contributed 44.7% and diarrhoeal disease 29.6% of the total attributable burden. Childhood and maternal underweight accounted for 2.7% (95% uncertainty interval 2.6 - 2.9%) of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000 and 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval 10.2 - 11.5%) of DALYs in children under 5. CONCLUSIONS The study shows that reduction of the occurrence of underweight would have a substantial impact on child mortality, and also highlights the need to monitor this important indicator of child health.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to diabetes in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the burden of disease attributable to diabetes by sex and age group in South Africa in 2000. DESIGN The framework adopted for the most recent World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Small community studies used to derive the prevalence of diabetes by population group were weighted proportionately for a national estimate. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Adults 30 years and older. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, hypertensive disease and renal failure. RESULTS Of South Africans aged >or= 30 years, 5.5% had diabetes which increased with age. Overall, about 14% of IHD, 10% of stroke, 12% of hypertensive disease and 12% of renal disease burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to diabetes. Diabetes was estimated to have caused 22,412 (95% uncertainty interval 20,755 - 24,872) or 4.3% (95% uncertainty interval 4.0 - 4.8%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Since most of these occurred in middle or old age, the loss of healthy life years comprises a smaller proportion of the total 258,028 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 236,856 - 290,849) in South Africa in 2000, accounting for 1.6% (95% uncertainty interval 1.5 - 1.8%) of the total burden. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes is an important direct and indirect cause of burden in South Africa. Primary prevention of the disease through multi-level interventions and improved management at primary health care level are needed.