An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Two-link approximation schemes for loss networks with linear structure and trunk reservation

Loss networks have long been used to model various types of telecommunication network, including circuit-switched networks. Such networks often use admission controls, such as trunk reservation, to optimize revenue or stabilize the behaviour of the network. Unfortunately, an exact analysis of such networks is not usually possible, and reduced-load approximations such as the Erlang Fixed Point (EFP) approximation have been widely used. The performance of these approximations is typically very good for networks without controls, under several regimes. There is evidence, however, that in networks with controls, these approximations will in general perform less well. We propose an extension to the EFP approximation that gives marked improvement for a simple ring-shaped network with trunk reservation. It is based on the idea of considering pairs of links together, thus making greater allowance for dependencies between neighbouring links than does the EFP approximation, which only considers links in isolation.

Model specification tests in nonparametric stochastic regression models

In this paper, we consider testing for additivity in a class of nonparametric stochastic regression models. Two test statistics are constructed and their asymptotic distributions are established. We also conduct a small sample study for one of the test statistics through a simulated example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Monitoring the composition and form of urban environments based on the vegetation-impervious surface-soil (VIS) model by sub-pixel analysis techniques

The majority of the world's population now resides in urban environments and information on the internal composition and dynamics of these environments is essential to enable preservation of certain standards of living. Remotely sensed data, especially the global coverage of moderate spatial resolution satellites such as Landsat, Indian Resource Satellite and Systeme Pour I'Observation de la Terre (SPOT), offer a highly useful data source for mapping the composition of these cities and examining their changes over time. The utility and range of applications for remotely sensed data in urban environments could be improved with a more appropriate conceptual model relating urban environments to the sampling resolutions of imaging sensors and processing routines. Hence, the aim of this work was to take the Vegetation-Impervious surface-Soil (VIS) model of urban composition and match it with the most appropriate image processing methodology to deliver information on VIS composition for urban environments. Several approaches were evaluated for mapping the urban composition of Brisbane city (south-cast Queensland, Australia) using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data and 1:5000 aerial photographs. The methods evaluated were: image classification; interpretation of aerial photographs; and constrained linear mixture analysis. Over 900 reference sample points on four transects were extracted from the aerial photographs and used as a basis to check output of the classification and mixture analysis. Distinctive zonations of VIS related to urban composition were found in the per-pixel classification and aggregated air-photo interpretation; however, significant spectral confusion also resulted between classes. In contrast, the VIS fraction images produced from the mixture analysis enabled distinctive densities of commercial, industrial and residential zones within the city to be clearly defined, based on their relative amount of vegetation cover. The soil fraction image served as an index for areas being (re)developed. The logical match of a low (L)-resolution, spectral mixture analysis approach with the moderate spatial resolution image data, ensured the processing model matched the spectrally heterogeneous nature of the urban environments at the scale of Landsat Thematic Mapper data.

A uniform white-noise model for fixed-point roundoff errors in digital systems

Fixed-point roundoff noise in digital implementation of linear systems arises due to overflow, quantization of coefficients and input signals, and arithmetical errors. In uniform white-noise models, the last two types of roundoff errors are regarded as uniformly distributed independent random vectors on cubes of suitable size. For input signal quantization errors, the heuristic model is justified by a quantization theorem, which cannot be directly applied to arithmetical errors due to the complicated input-dependence of errors. The complete uniform white-noise model is shown to be valid in the sense of weak convergence of probabilistic measures as the lattice step tends to zero if the matrices of realization of the system in the state space satisfy certain nonresonance conditions and the finite-dimensional distributions of the input signal are absolutely continuous.

Polyethylene flow prediction with a differential multi-mode Pom-Pom model

We report the first steps of a collaborative project between the University of Queensland, Polyflow, Michelin, SK Chemicals, and RMIT University; on simulation, validation and application of a recently introduced constitutive model designed to describe branched polymers. Whereas much progress has been made on predicting the complex flow behaviour of many - in particular linear - polymers, it sometimes appears difficult to predict simultaneously shear thinning and extensional strain hardening behaviour using traditional constitutive models. Recently a new viscoelastic model based on molecular topology, was proposed by McLeish and Larson (1998). We explore the predictive power of a differential multi-mode version of the pom-pom model for the flow behaviour of two commercial polymer melts: a (long-chain branched) low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and a (linear) high-density polyethylene (HDPE). The model responses are compared to elongational recovery experiments published by Langouche and Debbaut (1999), and start-up of simple shear flow, stress relaxation after simple and reverse step strain experiments carried out in our laboratory.

Application of the Williams-Landel-Ferry model to the viscosity-temperature relationship of Australian honeys

The rheological behaviour of nine unprocessed Australian honeys was investigated for the applicability of the Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) model. The viscosity of the honeys was obtained over a range of shear rates (0.01-40 s(-1)) from 2degrees to 40 degreesC, and all the honeys exhibited Newtonian behaviour with viscosity reducing as the temperature was increased. The honeys with high moisture were of lower viscosity, The glass transition temperatures of the honeys, as measured with a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC), ranged from -40degrees to -46 degreesC, and four models (WLF. Arrhenius, Vogel-Tammann-Fulcher (VTF), and power-law) were investigated to describe the temperature dependence of the viscosity. The WLF was the most suitable and the correlation coefficient averaged 0.999 +/- 0.0013 as against 0.996 +/- 0.0042 for the Arrhenius model while the mean relative deviation modulus was 0-12% for the WLF model and 10-40% for the Arrhenius one. With the universal values for the WLF constants, the temperature dependence of the viscosity was badly predicted. From non-linear regression analysis, the constants of the WLF models for the honeys were obtained (C-1 = 13.7-21.1: C-2 = 55.9-118.7) and are different from the universal values. These WLF constants will be valuable for adequate modeling of the rheology of the honeys, and they can be used to assess the temperature sensitivity of the honeys. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Progressive Age-Related Changes Similar to Age-Related Macular Degeneration in a Transgenic Mouse Model

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the major cause of blindness in the developed world. its pathomechanism is unknown and its late onset, complex genetics and strong environmental components have all hampered investigations. Here we demonstrate the development of an animal model for AMD that reproduces features associated with geographic atrophy, a transgenic mouse line (mcd/mcd) expressing a mutated form of cathepsin D that is enzymatically inactive thus impairing processing of phagocytosed photoreceptor outer segments in the retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells. Pigmentary changes indicating RPE cell atrophy and a decreased response to flash electroretinograms were observed in 11- to 12-month-old mcd/mcd mice. Histological studies showed RPE cell proliferation, photoreceptor degeneration, shortening of photoreceptor outer segments, and accumulation of immunoreactive photoreceptor breakdown products in the RPE cells. An accelerated photoreceptor cell death was detected in 12-month-old mcd/mcd mice. Transmission electron microscopy demonstrated presence of basal laminar and linear deposits that are considered to be the hallmarks of AMD. Small hard drusen associated with human age-related maculopathy were absent in the mcd/mcd mouse model at the ages analyzed. in summary, this model presents several features of AMD, thus providing a valuable tool for investigating the underlying biological processes and pathomechanism of AMD.

A quantitative state and transition model for the Mitchell grasslands of central western Queensland

Concerns of reduced productivity and land degradation in the Mitchell grasslands of central western Queensland were addressed through a range monitoring program to interpret condition and trend. Botanical and eclaphic parameters were recorded along piosphere and grazing gradients, and across fenceline impact areas, to maximise changes resulting from grazing. The Degradation Gradient Method was used in conjunction with State and Transition Models to develop models of rangeland dynamics and condition. States were found to be ordered along a degradation gradient, indicator species developed according to rainfall trends and transitions determined from field data and available literature. Astrebla spp. abundance declined with declining range condition and increasing grazing pressure, while annual grasses and forbs increased in dominance under poor range condition. Soil erosion increased and litter decreased with decreasing range condition. An approach to quantitatively define states within a variable rainfall environment based upon a time-series ordination analysis is described. The derived model could provide the interpretive framework necessary to integrate on-ground monitoring, remote sensing and geographic information systems to trace states and transitions at the paddock scale. However, further work is needed to determine the full catalogue of states and transitions and to refine the model for application at the paddock scale.

Biaxial failure model for fiber reinforced concrete

Steel fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC) is widely applied in the construction industry. Numerical elastoplastic analysis of the macroscopic behavior is complex. This typically involves a piecewise linear failure curve including corner singularities. This paper presents a single smooth biaxial failure curve for SFRC based on a semianalytical approximation. Convexity of the proposed model is guaranteed so that numerical problems are avoided. The model has sufficient flexibility to closely match experimental results. The failure curve is also suitable for modeling plain concrete under biaxial loading. Since this model is capable of simulating the failure states in all stress regimes with a single envelope, the elastoplastic formulation is very concise and simple. The finite element implementation is developed to demonstrate the conciseness and the effectiveness of the model. The computed results display good agreement with published experimental data.

Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

Pseudo-randomness of round-off errors in discretized linear maps on the plane

We analyze the sequences of round-off errors of the orbits of a discretized planar rotation, from a probabilistic angle. It was shown [Bosio & Vivaldi, 2000] that for a dense set of parameters, the discretized map can be embedded into an expanding p-adic dynamical system, which serves as a source of deterministic randomness. For each parameter value, these systems can generate infinitely many distinct pseudo-random sequences over a finite alphabet, whose average period is conjectured to grow exponentially with the bit-length of the initial condition (the seed). We study some properties of these symbolic sequences, deriving a central limit theorem for the deviations between round-off and exact orbits, and obtain bounds concerning repetitions of words. We also explore some asymptotic problems computationally, verifying, among other things, that the occurrence of words of a given length is consistent with that of an abstract Bernoulli sequence.

Concepção de uma pequena turbina eólica destinada ao segmento doméstico (simplificação e análise aerodinâmica das pás)

O trabalho que se apresenta incide sobre o estudo aerodinâmico das pás de uma turbina eólica de pequeno porte, com vista à simplificação geométrica, de forma a que estas sejam baratas e de fácil concepção. A teoria da quantidade de movimento do elemento de pá (BEMT), que é o modelo de referência para o projecto e análise aerodinâmica das pás das turbinas eólicas, foi utilizada neste trabalho de forma a projectar e analisar aerodinamicamente as pás da turbina. Sendo assim, desenvolveu-se um programa computacional em MATLAB, denominado de “Turbina”, de forma a implementar a teoria BEM. Introduzindo os dados dos parâmetros de projecto no programa (potência requerida, o número de pás, velocidade do vento, a TSR e o tipo de perfil alar), obtêm-se os parâmetros geométricos das pás (distribuição da corda ao longo da envergadura, o raio da pá e a distribuição da torção da pá), os parâmetros aerodinâmicos e de desempenho. Uma pá ideal foi calculada e de seguida foi modificada de forma a obter-se uma pá simples e menos carregada aerodinamicamente. Introduzidas as modificações na geometria da pá ideal, obtiveram-se duas configurações distintas. Uma configuração linear, onde a distribuição da corda e do ângulo de torção se tornam lineares, e outra configuração bi-linear, onde a distribuição da corda continua linear mas o ângulo de torção se torna bi-linear, isto é, a pá é composta por dois troços onde cada troço apresenta uma distribuição linear do ângulo de torção geométrica. As conclusões demonstram que a configuração bi-linear é uma boa alternativa a configuração ideal, apresentando uma redução do desempenho do rotor de 2.8% para um aumento do raio da pá em 1.41%, para se obter a mesma potência da configuração ideal. A análise aos perfis alares, utilizados neste trabalho, foi efectuada a partir dos programas comerciais ICEM e FLUENT. De forma a automatizar a análise de CFD, três programas foram desenvolvidos utilizando a linguagem de programação “C”. Os programas são denominados de “Malha2D”, “Calcula_Coeficientes” e “Plot_Graficos”. Finalmente, um estudo paramétrico foi feito de forma a avaliar a influências das variáveis de projecto no desempenho geral da turbina.

Simulação numérica do comportamento dinâmico de uma laje

Nesta dissertação pretende-se simular o comportamento dinâmico de uma laje de betão armado aplicando o Método de Elementos Finitos através da sua implementação no programa FreeFEM++. Este programa permite-nos a análise do modelo matemático tridimensional da Teoria da Elasticidade Linear, englobando a Equação de Equilíbrio, Equação de Compatibilidade e Relações Constitutivas. Tratando-se de um problema dinâmico é necessário recorrer a métodos numéricos de Integração Directa de modo a obter a resposta em termos de deslocamento ao longo do tempo. Para este trabalho escolhemos o Método de Newmark e o Método de Euler para a discretização temporal, um pela sua popularidade e o outro pela sua simplicidade de implementação. Os resultados obtidos pelo FreeFEM++ são validados através da comparação com resultados adquiridos a partir do SAP2000 e de Soluções Teóricas, quando possível.

A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.