Oxygen exchange in galls of Eurosta solidaginis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Hypoxia in plant tissue should affect animals living within. Gallmakers stimulate their plant hosts to produce the gall they inhabit and feed on, and also influence the gall phenotype for other adaptations, such as defense against predators. The potential for hypoxia in galls of Eurosta solidaginis was studied in the context of potential adaptations to gall oxygen level, using a combination of direct measurement, mathematical modelling, and respirometry on both gallmakers and hosts. Modelling results suggested mild hypoxia tolerable to the larva persists for most of the growth season, whereas more severe hypoxia may occur earlier in fully-grown young galls. Field data from one of the two years studied showed hypoxia more severe than expected, and coincided with adverse weather conditions and high larval mortality. The hypoxia may be related to host response to adverse weather. Whether hypoxia directly caused larval mortality requires further study.

Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Macroeconomic News and LOB in Foreign Exchange ECN Market

We investigate the macroeconomic news effect on the dynamics of the limit order books (LOB) for euro-dollar ECN market in different economic states between Jan. 2006 to Dec. 2009. Using a VAR-STR model on the news surprise, pure news, aggregated good and bad news, we show that news effects on the LOB dynamics vary in different states of economy. The LOB dynamics are measured by depth, spread, slope and volatility. In contract to slope and volatility, depth and spread strongly respond to news surprise and pure news during recession and expansion. These characteristics are more affected by aggregated good and bad news during expansion. News effects are robust to alternative characteristic measures, the different sides of the LOB and the different levels in the LOB.

High-Spin and Emissive Molecular Materials: Synthesis and Characterization of New Polynuclear Ni(II) Complexes from the Use of Aromatic Schiff Bases as Bridging Ligands

The employment of the bridging/chelating Schiff bases, N-salicylidene-4-methyl-o-aminophenol (samphH2) and N-naphthalidene-2-amino-5-chlorobenzoic acid (nacbH2), in nickel cluster chemistry has afforded eight polynuclear Ni(II) complexes with new structural motifs, interesting magnetic and optical properties, and unexpected organic ligand transformations. In the present thesis, Chapter 1 deals with all the fundamental aspects of polynuclear metal complexes, molecular magnetism and optics, while research results are reported in Chapters 2 and 3. In the first project (Chapter 2), I investigated the coordination chemistry of the organic chelating/bridging ligand, N-salicylidene-4-methyl-o-aminophenol (samphH2). The general NiII/tBuCO2-/samphH2 reaction system afforded two new tetranuclear NiII clusters, namely [Ni4(samph)4(EtOH)4] (1) and [Ni4(samph)4(DMF)2] (2), with different structural motifs. Complex 1 possessed a cubane core while in complex 2 the four NiII ions were located at the four vertices of a defective dicubane. The nature of the organic solvent was found to be of pivotal importance, leading to compounds with the same nuclearity, but different structural topologies and magnetic properties. The second project, the results of which are summarized in Chapter 3, included the systematic study of a new optically-active Schiff base ligand, N-naphthalidene-2-amino-5-chlorobenzoic acid (nacbH2), in NiII cluster chemistry. Various reactions between NiX2 (X- = inorganic anions) and nacbH2 were performed under basic conditions to yield six new polynuclear NiII complexes, namely (NHEt3)[Ni12(nacb)12(H2O)4](ClO4) (3), (NHEt3)2[Ni5(nacb)4(L)(LH)2(MeOH)] (4), [Ni5(OH)2(nacb)4(DMF)4] (5), [Ni5(OMe)Cl(nacb)4(MeOH)3(MeCN)] (6), (NHEt3)2[Ni6(OH)2(nacb)6(H2O)4] (7), and [Ni6(nacb)6(H2O)3(MeOH)6] (8). The nature of the solvent, the inorganic anion, X-, and the organic base were all found to be of critical importance, leading to products with different structural topologies and nuclearities (i.e., {Ni5}, {Ni6} and {Ni12}). Magnetic studies on all synthesized complexes revealed an overall ferromagnetic behavior for complexes 4 and 8, with the remaining complexes being dominated by antiferromagnetic exchange interactions. In order to assess the optical efficiency of the organic ligand when bound to the metal centers, photoluminescence studies were performed on all synthesized compounds. Complexes 4 and 5 show strong emission in the visible region of the electromagnetic spectrum. Finally, the ligand nacbH2 allowed for some unexpected organic transformations to occur; for instance, the pentanuclear compound 5 comprises both nacb2- groups and a new organic chelate, namely the anion of 5-chloro-2-[(3-hydroxy-4-oxo-1,4-dihydronaphthalen-1-yl)amino]benzoic acid. In the last section of this thesis, an attempt to compare the NiII cluster chemistry of the N-naphthalidene-2-amino-5-chlorobenzoic acid ligand with that of the structurally similar but less bulky, N-salicylidene-2-amino-5-chlorobenzoic acid (sacbH2), was made.

Core Retionalizability in Two-Agent Exchange Economies.

We provide a characterization of selection correspondences in two-person exchange economies that can be core rationalized in the sense that there exists a preference profile with some standard properties that generates the observed choices as the set of core elements of the economy for any given initial endowment vector. The approach followed in this paper deviates from the standard rational choice model in that a rationalization in terms of a profile of individual orderings rather than in terms of a single individual or social preference relation is analyzed.

Sampling Interval and estimated Betas : Implications for the Presence of Transitory Components in Stock Prices

We provide a theoretical framework to explain the empirical finding that the estimated betas are sensitive to the sampling interval even when using continuously compounded returns. We suppose that stock prices have both permanent and transitory components. The permanent component is a standard geometric Brownian motion while the transitory component is a stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The discrete time representation of the beta depends on the sampling interval and two components labelled \"permanent and transitory betas\". We show that if no transitory component is present in stock prices, then no sampling interval effect occurs. However, the presence of a transitory component implies that the beta is an increasing (decreasing) function of the sampling interval for more (less) risky assets. In our framework, assets are labelled risky if their \"permanent beta\" is greater than their \"transitory beta\" and vice versa for less risky assets. Simulations show that our theoretical results provide good approximations for the means and standard deviations of estimated betas in small samples. Our results can be perceived as indirect evidence for the presence of a transitory component in stock prices, as proposed by Fama and French (1988) and Poterba and Summers (1988).

Projection-Based Statistical Inference in Linear Structural Models with Possibly Weak Instruments

It is well known that standard asymptotic theory is not valid or is extremely unreliable in models with identification problems or weak instruments [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Staiger and Stock (1997, Econometrica), Wang and Zivot (1998, Econometrica), Stock and Wright (2000, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. One possible way out consists here in using a variant of the Anderson-Rubin (1949, Ann. Math. Stat.) procedure. The latter, however, allows one to build exact tests and confidence sets only for the full vector of the coefficients of the endogenous explanatory variables in a structural equation, which in general does not allow for individual coefficients. This problem may in principle be overcome by using projection techniques [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. AR-types are emphasized because they are robust to both weak instruments and instrument exclusion. However, these techniques can be implemented only by using costly numerical techniques. In this paper, we provide a complete analytic solution to the problem of building projection-based confidence sets from Anderson-Rubin-type confidence sets. The latter involves the geometric properties of “quadrics” and can be viewed as an extension of usual confidence intervals and ellipsoids. Only least squares techniques are required for building the confidence intervals. We also study by simulation how “conservative” projection-based confidence sets are. Finally, we illustrate the methods proposed by applying them to three different examples: the relationship between trade and growth in a cross-section of countries, returns to education, and a study of production functions in the U.S. economy.

Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

Le droit peut-il être un révélateur de transformations profondes des politiques publiques ? : l’exemple de réformes récentes en France

Jacques Commaille, Directeur, GAPP (Groupe d’analyse des politiques publiques), Professeur, École Normale Supérieure de Cachan, Département de Sciences Sociales

The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: a Quantitative Investigation.

This paper studies a dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. the model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. the predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G7 effective exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods era.