984 resultados para Inflation rate forecast
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This paper deals with a phenomenologically motivated magneto-viscoelastic coupled finite strain framework for simulating the curing process of polymers under the application of a coupled magneto-mechanical road. Magneto-sensitive polymers are prepared by mixing micron-sized ferromagnetic particles in uncured polymers. Application of a magnetic field during the curing process causes the particles to align and form chain-like structures lending an overall anisotropy to the material. The polymer curing is a viscoelastic complex process where a transformation from fluid. to solid occurs in the course of time. During curing, volume shrinkage also occurs due to the packing of polymer chains by chemical reactions. Such reactions impart a continuous change of magneto-mechanical properties that can be modelled by an appropriate constitutive relation where the temporal evolution of material parameters is considered. To model the shrinkage during curing, a magnetic-induction-dependent approach is proposed which is based on a multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient into a mechanical and a magnetic-induction-dependent volume shrinkage part. The proposed model obeys the relevant laws of thermodynamics. Numerical examples, based on a generalised Mooney-Rivlin energy function, are presented to demonstrate the model capacity in the case of a magneto-viscoelastically coupled load.
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The concentration and ratio of terpenoids in the headspace volatile blend of plants have a fundamental role in the communication of plants and insects. The sesquiterpene (E)-nerolidol is one of the important volatiles with effect on beneficial carnivores for biologic pest management in the field. To optimize de novo biosynthesis and reliable and uniform emission of (E)-nerolidol, we engineered different steps of the (E)-nerolidol biosynthesis pathway in Arabidopsis thaliana. Introduction of a mitochondrial nerolidol synthase gene mediates de novo emission of (E)-nerolidol and linalool. Co-expression of the mitochondrial FPS1 and cytosolic HMGR1 increased the number of emitting transgenic plants (incidence rate) and the emission rate of both volatiles. No association between the emission rate of transgenic volatiles and their growth inhibitory effect could be established. (E)-Nerolidol was to a large extent metabolized to non-volatile conjugates.
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The University of Barcelona is developing a pilot-scale hot wire chemical vapor deposition (HW-CVD) set up for the deposition of nano-crystalline silicon (nc-Si:H) on 10 cm × 10 cm glass substrate at high deposition rate. The system manages 12 thin wires of 0.15-0.2 mm diameter in a very dense configuration. This permits depositing very uniform films, with inhomogeneities lower than 2.5%, at high deposition rate (1.5-3 nm/s), and maintaining the substrate temperature relatively low (250 °C). The wire configuration design, based on radicals' diffusion simulation, is exposed and the predicted homogeneity is validated with optical transmission scanning measurements of the deposited samples. Different deposition series were carried out by varying the substrate temperature, the silane to hydrogen dilution and the deposition pressure. By means of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), the evolution in time of the nc-Si:H vibrational modes was monitored. Particular importance has been given to the study of the material stability against post-deposition oxidation.
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Objectives : This study compares three methods to forecast the number of acute somatic hospital beds needed in a Swiss academic hospital over the period 2010-2030. Design : Information about inpatient stays is provided through a yearly mandatory reporting of Swiss hospitals, containing anonymized data. Forecast of the numbers of beds needed compares a basic scenario relying on population projections with two other methods in use in our country that integrate additional hypotheses on future trends in admission rates and length of stay (LOS).
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Experimental models demonstrated that therapeutic induction of CD8 T cell responses may offer protection against tumors or infectious diseases providing that T cells have sufficiently high TCR/CD8:pMHC avidity for efficient Ag recognition and consequently strong immune functions. However, comprehensive characterization of TCR/CD8:pMHC avidity in clinically relevant situations has remained elusive. In this study, using the novel NTA-His tag-containing multimer technology, we quantified the TCR:pMHC dissociation rates (koff) of tumor-specific vaccine-induced CD8 T cell clones (n = 139) derived from seven melanoma patients vaccinated with IFA, CpG, and the native/EAA or analog/ELA Melan-A(MART-1)(26-35) peptide, binding with low or high affinity to MHC, respectively. We observed substantial correlations between koff and Ca(2+) mobilization (p = 0.016) and target cell recognition (p < 0.0001), with the latter independently of the T cell differentiation state. Our strategy was successful in demonstrating that the type of peptide impacted on TCR/CD8:pMHC avidity, as tumor-reactive T cell clones derived from patients vaccinated with the low-affinity (native) peptide expressed slower koff rates than those derived from patients vaccinated with the high-affinity (analog) peptide (p < 0.0001). Furthermore, we observed that the low-affinity peptide promoted the selective differentiation of tumor-specific T cells bearing TCRs with high TCR/CD8:pMHC avidity (p < 0.0001). Altogether, TCR:pMHC interaction kinetics correlated strongly with T cell functions. Our study demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of TCR/CD8:pMHC avidity assessment by NTA-His tag-containing multimers of naturally occurring polyclonal T cell responses, which represents a strong asset for the development of immunotherapy.
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This paper considers an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. It studies a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, it assumes limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. The paper analyzes the optimal exchange rate policy by modeling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Its main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. The paper also shows that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.
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BACKGROUND: Recent methodological advances allow better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing frameworks to model this diversity either focus on changes between lineages, neglecting global effects such as mass extinctions, or focus on changes over time which would affect all lineages. Yet it seems probable that both lineages differences and mass extinctions affect the same groups. RESULTS: Here we used simulations to test the performance of two widely used methods under complex scenarios of diversification. We report good performances, although with a tendency to over-predict events with increasing complexity of the scenario. CONCLUSION: Overall, we find that lineage shifts are better detected than mass extinctions. This work has significance to assess the methods currently used to estimate changes in diversification using phylogenetic trees. Our results also point toward the need to develop new models of diversification to expand our capabilities to analyse realistic and complex evolutionary scenarios.
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DNA is nowadays swabbed routinely to investigate serious and volume crimes, but research remains scarce when it comes to determining the criteria that may impact the success rate of DNA swabs taken on different surfaces and situations. To investigate these criteria in fully operational conditions, DNA analysis results of 4772 swabs taken by the forensic unit of a police department in Western Switzerland over a 2.5-year period (2012-2014) in volume crime cases were considered. A representative and random sample of 1236 swab analyses was extensively examined and codified, describing several criteria such as whether the swabbing was performed at the scene or in the lab, the zone of the scene where it was performed, the kind of object or surface that was swabbed, whether the target specimen was a touch surface or a biological fluid, and whether the swab targeted a single surface or combined different surfaces. The impact of each criterion and of their combination was assessed in regard to the success rate of DNA analysis, measured through the quality of the resulting profile, and whether the profile resulted in a hit in the national database or not. Results show that some situations - such as swabs taken on door and window handles for instance - have a higher success rate than average swabs. Conversely, other situations lead to a marked decrease in the success rate, which should discourage further analyses of such swabs. Results also confirm that targeting a DNA swab on a single surface is preferable to swabbing different surfaces with the intent to aggregate cells deposited by the offender. Such results assist in predicting the chance that the analysis of a swab taken in a given situation will lead to a positive result. The study could therefore inform an evidence-based approach to decision-making at the crime scene (what to swab or not) and at the triage step (what to analyse or not), contributing thus to save resource and increase the efficiency of forensic science efforts.
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Data concerning the effect of temperature on different physiological parameters of an invasive species can be a useful tool to predict its potential distribution range through the use of modelling approaches. In the case of the Argentine ant these data are too scarce and incomplete. The aim of the present study is to compile new data regarding the effect of temperature on the oviposition rate of the Argentine ant queens. We analysed the oviposition rate of queens at twelve controlled temperatures, ranging from 10ºC to 34ºC under different monogynous and polygynous conditions. The oviposition rate of the Argentine ant queens is affected by temperature in the same manner, independently of the number of queens in the nest. The optimal temperature for egg laying was 28ºC, and its upper and lower limits depended on the degree of polygyny
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In this article we examine the convenience of dollarization for Ecuador today. As Ecuador is strongly integrated financially and commercially with the United States, the exchange rate pass-through should be zero. However, we sustain that rising rates of imports from trade partners other than the United States and subsequent real effective exchange rate depreciations are causing the pass-through to move away from zero. Here, in the framework of the Vector Error Correction Model, we analyse the impulse response function and variance decomposition of the inflation variable. We show that the developing economy of Ecuador is importing inflation from its main trading partners, most of them emerging countries with appreciated currencies. We argue that if Ecuador recovered both its monetary and exchange rate instruments it would be able to fight against inflation. We believe such an analysis could be extended to other countries with pegged exchange rate regimes.