Comparison of different methods to forecast hospital bed needs

Objectives : This study compares three methods to forecast the number of acute somatic hospital beds needed in a Swiss academic hospital over the period 2010-2030. Design : Information about inpatient stays is provided through a yearly mandatory reporting of Swiss hospitals, containing anonymized data. Forecast of the numbers of beds needed compares a basic scenario relying on population projections with two other methods in use in our country that integrate additional hypotheses on future trends in admission rates and length of stay (LOS).