Simulating everglades national park hydrology and phosphorus transport under existing and future scenarios using numerical modeling

The Florida Everglades has a long history of anthropogenic changes which have impacted the quantity and quality of water entering the system. Since the construction of Tamiami Trail in the 1920's, overland flow to the Florida Everglades has decreased significantly, impacting ecosystems from the wetlands to the estuary. The MIKE Marsh Model of Everglades National Park (M3ENP) is a numerical model, which simulates Everglades National Park (ENP) hydrology using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11software. This model has been developed to determine the parameters that effect Everglades hydrology and understand the impact of specific flow changes on the hydrology of the system. ^ As part of the effort to return flows to the historical levels, several changes to the existing water management infrastructure have been implemented or are in the design phase. Bridge construction scenarios were programed into the M3ENP model to review the effect of these structural changes and evaluate the potential impacts on water levels and hydroperiods in the receiving Northeast Shark Slough ecosystem. These scenarios have shown critical water level increases in an area which has been in decline due to low water levels. Results from this work may help guide future decisions for restoration designs. ^ Excess phosphorus entering Everglades National Park in South Florida may promote the growth of more phosphorus-opportunistic species and alter the food chain from the bottom up. Two phosphorus transport methods were developed into the M3ENP hydrodynamic model to determine the factors affecting phosphorus transport and the impact of bridge construction on water quality. Results showed that while phosphorus concentrations in surface waters decreased overall, some areas within ENP interior may experience an increase in phosphorus loading which the addition of bridges to Tamiami Trail. Finally, phosphorus data and modeled water level data was used to evaluate the spectral response of Everglades vegetation to increasing phosphorus availability using Landsat imagery.^

Integrated Surface-Ground Water Modeling in Wetlands With Improved Methods to Simulate Vegetative Resistance to Flow

This dissertation focused on developing an integrated surface – subsurface hydrologic simulation numerical model by programming and testing the coupling of the USGS MODFLOW-2005 Groundwater Flow Process (GWF) package (USGS, 2005) with the 2D surface water routing model: FLO-2D (O’Brien et al., 1993). The coupling included the necessary procedures to numerically integrate and verify both models as a single computational software system that will heretofore be referred to as WHIMFLO-2D (Wetlands Hydrology Integrated Model). An improved physical formulation of flow resistance through vegetation in shallow waters based on the concept of drag force was also implemented for the simulations of floodplains, while the use of the classical methods (e.g., Manning, Chezy, Darcy-Weisbach) to calculate flow resistance has been maintained for the canals and deeper waters. A preliminary demonstration exercise WHIMFLO-2D in an existing field site was developed for the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA), an 80 acre area, located at the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wild Life Refuge in Boynton Beach, Florida. After applying a number of simplifying assumptions, results have illustrated the ability of the model to simulate the hydrology of a wetland. In this illustrative case, a comparison between measured and simulated stages level showed an average error of 0.31% with a maximum error of 2.8%. Comparison of measured and simulated groundwater head levels showed an average error of 0.18% with a maximum of 2.9%.

Quantitative Comparison of Plant Community Hydrology Using Large-Extent, Long-Term Data

Large-extent vegetation datasets that co-occur with long-term hydrology data provide new ways to develop biologically meaningful hydrologic variables and to determine plant community responses to hydrology. We analyzed the suitability of different hydrological variables to predict vegetation in two water conservation areas (WCAs) in the Florida Everglades, USA, and developed metrics to define realized hydrologic optima and tolerances. Using vegetation data spatially co-located with long-term hydrological records, we evaluated seven variables describing water depth, hydroperiod length, and number of wet/dry events; each variable was tested for 2-, 4- and 10-year intervals for Julian annual averages and environmentally-defined hydrologic intervals. Maximum length and maximum water depth during the wet period calculated for environmentally-defined hydrologic intervals over a 4-year period were the best predictors of vegetation type. Proportional abundance of vegetation types along hydrological gradients indicated that communities had different realized optima and tolerances across WCAs. Although in both WCAs, the trees/shrubs class was on the drier/shallower end of hydrological gradients, while slough communities occupied the wetter/deeper end, the distribution ofCladium, Typha, wet prairie and Salix communities, which were intermediate for most hydrological variables, varied in proportional abundance along hydrologic gradients between WCAs, indicating that realized optima and tolerances are context-dependent.

Numerical groundwater flow modeling in the Wakal River basin, India

Increasing dependence on groundwater in the Wakal River basin, India, jeopardizes water supply sustainability. A numerical groundwater model was developed to better understand the aquifer system and to evaluate its potential in terms of quantity and replenishment. Potential artificial recharge areas were delineated using landscape and hydrogeologic parameters, Geographic Information System (GIS), and remote sensing. Groundwater models are powerful tools for recharge estimation when transmissivity is known. Proper recharge must be applied to reproduce field-measured heads. The model showed that groundwater levels could decline significantly if there are two drought years in every four years that result in reduced recharge, and groundwater withdrawal is increased by 15%. The effect of such drought is currently uncertain however, because runoff from the basin is unknown. Remote sensing and GIS revealed areas with slopes less than 5%, forest cover, and Normalized Difference Vegetative Index greater than 0.5 that are suitable recharge sites.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Integrated assessment of groundwater – surface water exchange in the hillslope – riparian interface of a montane catchment

Non peer reviewed

Influence of Increased Human Presence in the Mills River Basin on Water Availability and Drought

Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.

Simulating Everglades National Park hydrology and phosphorus transport under existing and future scenarios using numerical modeling

The Florida Everglades has a long history of anthropogenic changes which have impacted the quantity and quality of water entering the system. Since the construction of Tamiami Trail in the 1920's, overland flow to the Florida Everglades has decreased significantly, impacting ecosystems from the wetlands to the estuary. The MIKE Marsh Model of Everglades National Park (M3ENP) is a numerical model, which simulates Everglades National Park (ENP) hydrology using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11software. This model has been developed to determine the parameters that effect Everglades hydrology and understand the impact of specific flow changes on the hydrology of the system. As part of the effort to return flows to the historical levels, several changes to the existing water management infrastructure have been implemented or are in the design phase. Bridge construction scenarios were programed into the M3ENP model to review the effect of these structural changes and evaluate the potential impacts on water levels and hydroperiods in the receiving Northeast Shark Slough ecosystem. These scenarios have shown critical water level increases in an area which has been in decline due to low water levels. Results from this work may help guide future decisions for restoration designs. Excess phosphorus entering Everglades National Park in South Florida may promote the growth of more phosphorus-opportunistic species and alter the food chain from the bottom up. Two phosphorus transport methods were developed into the M3ENP hydrodynamic model to determine the factors affecting phosphorus transport and the impact of bridge construction on water quality. Results showed that while phosphorus concentrations in surface waters decreased overall, some areas within ENP interior may experience an increase in phosphorus loading which the addition of bridges to Tamiami Trail. Finally, phosphorus data and modeled water level data was used to evaluate the spectral response of Everglades vegetation to increasing phosphorus availability using Landsat imagery.

Xavier Zapata (FIU graduate student) collecting a groundwater sample, Taylor Slough

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Table 2: Water stable isotope results and sampling site information of samples taken between 2003 and 2009 on the island of Corsica (western Mediterranean)

The Mediterranean is regarded as a region of intense climate change. To better understand future climate change, this area has been the target of several palaeoclimate studies which also studied stable isotope proxies that are directly linked to the stable isotope composition of water, such as tree rings, tooth enamel or speleothems. For such work, it is also essential to establish an isotope hydrology framework of the region of interest. Surface waters from streams and lakes as well as groundwater from springs on the island of Corsica were sampled between 2003 and 2009 for their oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions. Isotope values from lake waters were enriched in heavier isotopes and define a local evaporation line (LEL). On the other hand, stream and spring waters reflect the isotope composition of local precipitation in the catchment. The intersection of the LEL and the linear fit of the spring and stream waters reflect the mean isotope composition of the annual precipitation (dP) with values of -8.6(±0.2) per mil for d18O and -58(±2) per mil for d2H. This value is also a good indicator of the average isotope composition of the local groundwater in the island. Surface water samples reflect the altitude isotope effect with a value of -0.17(±0.02) per mil per 100 m elevation for oxygen isotopes. At Vizzavona Pass in central Corsica, water samples from two catchments within a lateral distance of only a few hundred metres showed unexpected but systematic differences in their stable isotope composition. At this specific location, the direction of exposure seems to be an important factor. The differences were likely caused by isotopic enrichment during recharge in warm weather conditions in south-exposed valley flanks compared to the opposite, north-exposed valley flanks.

Hydrochemical and microbiological properties of groundwater from pristine aquifer sampled at the Lower Rhine Embayment

The hydrochemistry and the microbial diversity of a pristine aquifer system near Garzweiler, Germany next to the open-pit lignite mine Garzweiler 1, were characterized. Hydrogeochemical and isotopic data indicate a recent activity of sulfate-reducing bacteria in the Tertiary marine sands. The community structure in the aquifer was studied by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Up to 7.3 x 10**5 cells/ml were detected by DAPIstaining. Bacteria (identified by the probe EUB338) were dominant, representing 51.9% of the total cell number (DAPI). Another 25.7% of total cell were affiliated with the domain Archaea as identified by the probe ARCH915. Within the domain Bacteria, the beta-Proteobacteria were most abundant (21.0% of total cell counts). Using genusspecific probes for sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB), 2.5% of the total cells were identified as members of the genus Desulfotomaculum. This reflects the predominant role these microorganisms have been found to play in sulfatereducing zones of aquifers at other sites. Previously, all SRB cultured from this site were from the spore-forming genera Desulfotomaculum and Desulfosporosinus. Samples were taken after pumping for >= 40 min and after parameters such as temperature, pH, redox potential, oxygen and conductivity of the groundwater had remained stable for >= 15 min due to recharge of aquifer water. Hybridization and microscopy counts of hybridized and 4',6'-diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI)- stained cells were performed as described in Snaidr et al., (1997, http://aem.asm.org/content/63/7/2884.full.pdf). Means were calculated from 10 to 20 randomly chosen fields on each filter section, corresponding to 800-1000 DAPI stained cells. Counting results were always corrected by subtracting signals observed with the probe NON338. Formamide concentrations and oligonucleotide probes used please see further details.

Hydrochemical properties of groundwater samples in Semarang area, Java Island, Indonesia (1992, 1993, 2003, 2006, and 2007)

In Semarang City, groundwater has been exploited as a natural resource since 1841. The groundwater exploited in deep wells is concentrated in confined aquifers. The previous hydrogeological model was developed in one unit of aquifer and refined then by using several hydrostratigraphical units following a regional hydrogeological map without any further analysis. At present, there is a lack of precise hydrogeological model which integrates geological and hydrogeological data, in particular for multiple aquifers in Semarang. Thus, the aim of this paper is to develop a hydrogeological model for the multiple aquifers in Semarang using an integrated data approach. Groundwater samples in the confined aquifers have been analyzed to define the water type and its lateral distribution. Two hydrogeological cross sections were then created based on several borelog data to define a hydrostratigraphical unit (HSU). The HSU result indicates the hydrogeological model of Semarang consists of two aquifers, three aquitards, and one aquiclude. Aquifer 1 is unconfined, while Aquifer 2 is confined. Aquifer 2 is classified into three groups (2a, 2b, and 2c) based on analyses of major ion content and hydrostratigraphical cross sections.

(Table 1) Water chemistry of groundwater and snow samples from three sites in Ontario, Canada

Snow samples collected from hand-dug pits at two sites in Simcoe County, Ontario, Canada were analysed for major and trace elements using the clean lab methods established for polar ice. Potentially toxic, chalcophile elements are highly enriched in snow, relative to their natural abundance in crustal rocks, with enrichment factor (EF) values (calculated using Sc) in the range 107 to 1081 for Ag, As, Bi, Cd, Cu, Mo, Pb, Sb, Te, and Zn. Relative to M/Sc ratios in snow, water samples collected at two artesian flows in this area are significantly depleted in Ag, Al, Be, Bi, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, Tl, V, and Zn at both sites, and in Co, Th and Tl at one of the sites. The removal from the waters of these elements is presumably due to such processes as physical retention (filtration) of metal-bearing atmospheric aerosols by organic and mineral soil components as well as adsorption and surface complexation of ionic species onto organic, metal oxyhydroxide and clay mineral surfaces. In the case of Pb, the removal processes are so effective that apparently ''natural'' ratios of Pb to Sc are found in the groundwaters. Tritium measurements show that the groundwater at one of the sites is modern (ie not more than 30 years old) meaning that the inputs of Pb and other trace elements to the groundwaters may originally have been much higher than they are today; the M/Sc ratios measured in the groundwaters today, therefore, represent a conservative estimate of the extent of metal removal along the flow path. Lithogenic elements significantly enriched in the groundwaters at both sites include Ba, Ca, Li, Mg, Mn, Na, Rb, S, Si, Sr, and Ti. The abundance of these elements can largely be explained in terms of weathering of the dominant silicate (plagioclase, potassium feldspar, amphibole and biotite) and carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite and ankerite) in the soils and sediments of the watershed. Arsenic, Mo, Te, and especially U are also highly enriched in the groundwaters, due to chemical weathering: these could easily be explained if there are small amounts of sulfides (As, Mo, Te) and apatite (U) in the soils of the source area. Elements neither significantly enriched nor depleted at both sites include Fe, Ga, Ge, and P.

Estimate of the (R)USLE rainfall erosivity factor from monthly precipitation data in mainland Spain

The need for continuous recording rain gauges makes it difficult to determine the rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) of the (R)USLE model in areas without good temporal data coverage. In mainland Spain, the Nature Conservation Institute (ICONA) determined the R-factor at few selected pluviographs, so simple estimates of the R-factor are definitely of great interest. The objectives of this study were: (1) to identify a readily available estimate of the R-factor for mainland Spain; (2) to discuss the applicability of a single (global) estimate based on analysis of regional results; (3) to evaluate the effect of record length on estimate precision and accuracy; and (4) to validate an available regression model developed by ICONA. Four estimators based on monthly precipitation were computed at 74 rainfall stations throughout mainland Spain. The regression analysis conducted at a global level clearly showed that modified Fournier index (MFI) ranked first among all assessed indexes. Applicability of this preliminary global model across mainland Spain was evaluated by analyzing regression results obtained at a regional level. It was found that three contiguous regions of eastern Spain (Catalonia, Valencian Community and Murcia) could have a different rainfall erosivity pattern, so a new regression analysis was conducted by dividing mainland Spain into two areas: Eastern Spain and plateau-lowland area. A comparative analysis concluded that the bi-areal regression model based on MFI for a 10-year record length provided a simple, precise and accurate estimate of the R-factor in mainland Spain. Finally, validation of the regression model proposed by ICONA showed that R-ICONA index overpredicted the R-factor by approximately 19%.