Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: dynamic surface storage and channel roughness

Flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression storage, and roughness coefficient in channels. In the final (a posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albujón watershed; 556 km 2 ), which showed a complex multi-peak response. First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly different behavior.

"Just as fragments are part of a vessel": a translation into medieval Occitan of the life of Alexander the Great

This article examines a 14th-c. translation into Old Occitan prose of a late-antique life of Alexander the Great: Justin’s Epitome of the 'Historia Philippicae' of Pompeius Trogus. The article argues that it is the work of translators whose knowledge of pagan Latin materials was incomplete and whose use of their native tongue rested on non-literary bases. This text has not been edited before, and examining its uneven treatment of its source provides important new insights into the work of translators in the later Middle Ages. In conclusion, the article suggests some new approaches to the understanding of translation as a process of reconstruction and adaptation.

Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics : a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.

English Contract Law and the Great War: the development of a doctrine of frustration

This article examines changes that occurred in English contract law as a result of the demands made upon Great Britain by the Great War. The focus is on the development of the doctrine of frustration in English law. In particular, it is argued that the development of the doctrine of frustration was fashioned from internal legal forces in the form of both existing case law and emergency legislation in response to the demands placed upon the nation by a global war. The way in which the doctrine of frustration developed during the Great War arose as a direct result of the way in which Britain chose to meet the logistical demands created by the way it fought the Great War.

Parenting difficulties and postnatal depression: implications for primary healthcare assessment and intervention

Postnatal depression (PND) is associated with impairments in the mother–child relationship, and these impairments are themselves associated with adverse child outcomes. Thus, compared to the children of non-depressed mothers, children of mothers with PND are more likely to be insecurely attached, and to have externalising behaviour problems and poor cognitive development. Each of these three child outcomes is predicted by a particular pattern of difficulty in parenting: insecure attachment is related to maternal insensitivity, particularly in relation to infant distress and emotional vulnerability; externalising problems are particularly common in the context of hostile parenting; and poor cognitive development is related to parental difficulties in noticing infant signs of interest and supporting their engagement with the environment. This article sets out procedures for how parenting could be assessed in ways that are sensitive to the domain-specific associations between parenting and child outcome, while remaining sensitive to the child's developmental stage. This set of assessments requires field testing.

Computerised therapies for anxiety and depression in children and young people: a systematic review and meta-anaylsis

One quarter of children and young people (CYP) experience anxiety and/or depression before adulthood, but treatment is sometimes unavailable or inadequate. Self-help interventions may have a role in augmenting treatment and this work aimed to systematically review the evidence for computerised anxiety and depression interventions in CYP aged 5–25 years old. Databases were searched for randomised controlled trials and 27 studies were identified. For young people (12–25 years) with risk of diagnosed anxiety disorders or depression, computerised CBT (cCBT) had positive effects for symptoms of anxiety (SMD −0.77, 95% CI −1.45 to −0.09, k = 6, N = 220) and depression (SMD −0.62, 95% CI −1.13 to −0.11, k = 7, N = 279). In a general population study of young people, there were small positive effects for anxiety (SMD −0.15, 95% CI −0.26 to −0.03; N = 1273) and depression (SMD −0.15, 95% CI −0.26 to −0.03; N = 1280). There was uncertainty around the effectiveness of cCBT in children (5–11 years). Evidence for other computerised interventions was sparse and inconclusive. Computerised CBT has potential for treating and preventing anxiety and depression in clinical and general populations of young people. Further program development and research is required to extend its use and establish its benefit in children.

Long-term depression activates transcription of immediate early transcription factor genes: involvement of serum response factor/Elk-1

Long-term depression (LTD) is one of the paradigms used in vivo or ex vivo for studying memory formation. In order to identify genes with potential relevance for memory formation we used mouse organotypic hippocampal slice cultures in which chemical LTD was induced by applications of 3,5-dihydroxyphenylglycine (DHPG). The induction of chemical LTD was robust, as monitored electrophysiologically. Gene expression analysis after chemical LTD induction was performed using cDNA microarrays containing >7,000 probes. The DHPG-induced expression of immediate early genes (c-fos, junB, egr1 and nr4a1) was subsequently verified by TaqMan polymerase chain reaction. Bioinformatic analysis suggested a common regulator element [serum response factor (SRF)/Elk-1 binding sites] within the promoter region of these genes. Indeed, here we could show a DHPG-dependent binding of SRF at the SRF response element (SRE) site within the promoter region of c-fos and junB. However, SRF binding to egr1 promoter sites was constitutive. The phosphorylation of the ternary complex factor Elk-1 and its localization in the nucleus of hippocampal neurones after DHPG treatment was shown by immunofluorescence using a phosphospecific antibody. We suggest that LTD leads to SRF/Elk-1-regulated gene expression of immediate early transcription factors, which could in turn promote a second broader wave of gene expression.

Trajectories of maternal depression and offspring psychopathology at 6 years: 2004 Pelotas cohort study

BACKGROUND: Few studies have addressed the course and severity of maternal depression and its effects on child psychiatric disorders from a longitudinal perspective. This study aimed to identify longitudinal patterns of maternal depression and to evaluate whether distinct depression trajectories predict particular psychiatric disorders in offspring. METHODS: Cohort of 4231 births followed-up in the city of Pelotas, Brazil. Maternal depressive symptoms were assessed with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) at 3, 12, 24 and 48 months and 6 years after delivery. Psychiatric disorders in 6-year-old children were evaluated through the development and well-being assessment (DAWBA) instrument. Trajectories of maternal depression were calculated using a group-based modelling approach. RESULTS: We identified five trajectories of maternal depressive symptoms: a "low" trajectory (34.8%), a "moderate low" (40.9%), a "increasing" (9.0%), a "decreasing" (9.9%), and a "high-chronic" trajectory (5.4%). The probability of children having any psychiatric disorder, as well as both internalizing and externalizing problems, increased as we moved from the "low" to the "high-chronic" trajectory. These differences were not explained by maternal and child characteristics examined in multivariate analyses. LIMITATIONS: Data on maternal depression at 3-months was available on only a sub-sample. In addition, we had to rely on maternal report of child's behavior alone. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed an additive effect on child outcome of maternal depression over time. We identified a group of mothers with chronic and severe symptoms of depression throughout the first six years of the child life and for this group child psychiatric outcome was particularly compromised.

A randomised controlled trial of positive memory training for the treatment of depression within schizophrenia

Abstract Background: Depression is highly prevalent within individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia, and is associated with an increased risk of suicide. There are no current evidence based treatments for low mood within this group. The specific targeting of co-morbid conditions within complex mental health problems lends itself to the development of short-term structured interventions which are relatively easy to disseminate within health services. A brief cognitive intervention based on a competitive memory theory of depression, is being evaluated in terms of its effectiveness in reducing depression within this group. Methods/Design: This is a single blind, intention-to-treat, multi-site, randomized controlled trial comparing Positive Memory Training plus Treatment as Usual with Treatment as Usual alone. Participants will be recruited from two NHS Trusts in Southern England. In order to be eligible, participants must have a DSM-V diagnosis of schizophrenia or schizo-affective disorder and exhibit at least a mild level of depression. Following baseline assessment eligible participants will be randomly allocated to either the Positive Memory Training plus Treatment as Usual group or the Treatment as Usual group. Outcome will be assessed at the end of treatment (3-months) and at 6-month and 9-month post randomization by assessors blind to group allocation. The primary outcome will be levels of depression and secondary outcomes will be severity of psychotic symptoms and cost-effectiveness. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with all participants who are allocated to the treatment group so as to explore the acceptability of the intervention. Discussion: Cognitive behaviour therapy is recommended for individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia. However, the number of sessions and length of training required to deliver this intervention has caused a limit in availability. The current trial will evaluate a short-term structured protocol which targets a co-morbid condition often considered of primary importance by service users. If successful the intervention will be an important addition to current initiatives aimed at increasing access to psychological therapies for people diagnosed with severe mental health problems. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials. ISRCTN99485756. Registered 13 March 2014.

A radar-based rainfall climatology of Great Britain and Ireland

The Met Office 1km radar-derived precipitation-rate composite over 8 years (2006–2013) is examined to evaluate whether it provides an accurate representation of annual-average precipitation over Great Britain and Ireland over long periods of time. The annual-average precipitation from the radar composite is comparable with gauge measurements, with an average error of +23mmyr−1 over Great Britain and Ireland, +29mmyr−1 (3%) over the United Kingdom and –781mmyr−1 (46%) over the Republic of Ireland. The radar-derived precipitation composite is useful over the United Kingdom including Northern Ireland, but not accurate over the Republic of Ireland, particularly in the south.

Maternal postnatal depression predicts altered offspring biological stress reactivity in adulthood

The offspring of depressed parents have been found to show elevated basal levels of the stress hormone cortisol. Whether heightened cortisol stress reactivity is also present in this group has yet to be clearly demonstrated. We tested whether postnatal maternal depression predicts subsequent increases in offspring biological sensitivity to social stress, as indexed by elevated cortisol reactivity. Participants (mean age 22.4-years) derived from a 22-year prospective longitudinal study of the offspring of mothers who had postnatal depression (PND group; n=38) and a control group (n=38). Salivary cortisol response to a social-evaluative threat (Trier Social Stress Test) was measured. Hierarchical linear modelling indicated that PND group offspring showed greater cortisol reactivity to the stress test than control group participants. Group differences were not explained by offspring depressive or anxiety symptoms, experiences of negative life events, elevated basal cortisol at age 13-years, subsequent exposure to maternal depression, or other key covariates. The findings indicate that the presence of early maternal depression can predict offspring biological sensitivity to social stress in adulthood, with potential implications for broader functioning.

Effects of prenatal and postnatal depression, and maternal stroking, at the glucocorticoid receptor gene

In animal models, prenatal and postnatal stress is associated with elevated hypothalamic–pituitary axis (HPA) reactivity mediated via altered glucocorticoid receptor (GR) gene expression. Postnatal tactile stimulation is associated with reduced HPA reactivity mediated via increased GR gene expression. In this first study in humans to examine the joint effects of prenatal and postnatal environmental exposures, we report that GR gene (NR3C1) 1-F promoter methylation in infants is elevated in the presence of increased maternal postnatal depression following low prenatal depression, and that this effect is reversed by self-reported stroking of the infants by their mothers over the first weeks of life.