Check-in processing : simulation of passengers with advanced traits

In order to tackle the growth of air travelers in airports worldwide, it is important to simulate and understand passenger flows to predict future capacity constraints and levels of service. We discuss the ability of agent-based models to understand complicated pedestrian movement in built environments. In this paper we propose advanced passenger traits to enable more detailed modelling of behaviors in terminal buildings, particularly in the departure hall around the check-in facilities. To demonstrate the concepts, we perform a series of passenger agent simulations in a virtual airport terminal. In doing so, we generate a spatial distribution of passengers within the departure hall to ancillary facilities such as cafes, information kiosks and phone booths as well as common check-in facilities, and observe the effects this has on passenger check-in and departure hall dwell times, and facility utilization.

Including airport duty-free shopping in arriving passenger simulation and the opportunities this presents

Simulating passenger flows within airports is very important as it can provide an indication of queue lengths, bottlenecks, system capacity and overall level of service. To date, visual simulation tools such as agent based models have focused on processing formalities such as check-in, and not incorporate discretionary activities such as duty-free shopping. As airport retail contributes greatly to airport revenue generation, but also has potentially detrimental effects on facilitation efficiency benchmarks, this study developed a simplistic simulation model which captures common duty-free purchasing opportunities, as well as high-level behaviours of passengers. It is argued that such a model enables more realistic simulation of passenger facilitation, and provides a platform for simulating real-time revenue generation as well as more complex passenger behaviours within the airport. Simulations are conducted to verify the suitability of the model for inclusion in the international arrivals process for assessing passenger flow and infrastructure utilization.

Tailoring Consumer Resources to Enhance Self-Care in Chronic Heart Failure

Background Chronic heart failure (CHF) is associated with high hospitalisation and mortality rates and debilitating symptoms. In an effort to reduce hospitalisations and improve symptoms individuals must be supported in managing their condition. Patients who can effectively self-manage their symptoms through lifestyle modification and adherence to complex medication regimens will experience less hospitalisations and other adverse events. Aim The purpose of this paper is to explain how providing evidence-based information, using patient education resources, can support self-care. Discussion Self-care relates to the activities that individuals engage in relation to health seeking behaviours. Supporting self-care practices through tailored and relevant information can provide patients with resources and advice on strategies to manage their condition. Evidence-based approaches to improve adherence to self-care practices in patients with heart failure are not often reported. Low health literacy can result in poor understanding of the information about CHF and is related to adverse health outcomes. Also a lack of knowledge can lead to non-adherence with self-care practices such as following fluid restriction, low sodium diet and daily weighing routines. However these issues need to be addressed to improve self-management skills. Outcome Recently the Heart Foundation CHF consumer resource was updated based on evidence-based national clinical guidelines. The aim of this resource is to help consumers improve understanding of the disease, reduce uncertainty and anxiety about what to do when symptoms appear, encourage discussions with local doctors, and build confidence in self-care management. Conclusion Evidence-based CHF patient education resources promote self-care practices and early detection of symptom change that may reduce hospitalisations and improve the quality of life for people with CHF.

Access and Quality of Heart Failure Management Programs in Australia

Background/aim In response to the high burden of disease associated with chronic heart failure (CHF), in particular the high rates of hospital admissions, dedicated CHF management programs (CHF-MP) have been developed. Over the past five years there has been a rapid growth of CHF-MPs in Australia. Given the apparent mismatch between the demand for, and availability of CHF-MPs, this paper has been designed to discuss the accessibility to and quality of current CHF-MPs in Australia. Methods The data presented in this report has been combined from the research of the co-authors, in particular a review of the inequities in access to chronic heart failure which utilised geographical information systems (GIS) and the survey of heterogeneity in quality and service provision in Australian. Results Of the 62 CHF-MPs surveyed in this study 93% (58) centres had been located areas that are rated as Highly Accessible. This result indicated that most of the CHF-MPs have been located in capital cities or large regional cities. Six percent (4 CHF-MPs) had been located in Accessible areas which were country towns or cities. No CHF-MPs had been established outside of cities to service the estimated 72,000 individuals with CHF living in rural and remote areas. 16% of programs recruited NYHA Class I patients and of these 20% lacked confirmation (echocardiogram) of their diagnosis. Conclusion Overall, these data highlight the urgent need to provide equitable access to CHF-MP's. When establishing CHF-MPs consideration of current evidence based models to ensure quality in practice.

A Python package for Bayesian estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation provides a solution to the complex integration problems that are faced in the Bayesian analysis of statistical problems. The implementation of MCMC algorithms is, however, code intensive and time consuming. We have developed a Python package, which is called PyMCMC, that aids in the construction of MCMC samplers and helps to substantially reduce the likelihood of coding error, as well as aid in the minimisation of repetitive code. PyMCMC contains classes for Gibbs, Metropolis Hastings, independent Metropolis Hastings, random walk Metropolis Hastings, orientational bias Monte Carlo and slice samplers as well as specific modules for common models such as a module for Bayesian regression analysis. PyMCMC is straightforward to optimise, taking advantage of the Python libraries Numpy and Scipy, as well as being readily extensible with C or Fortran.

Thermal performance optimization of building aspect ratio and south window size in five cities having different climatic characteristics of Turkey

The aim of the study is to establish optimum building aspect ratios and south window sizes of residential buildings from thermal performance point of view. The effects of 6 different building aspect ratios and eight different south window sizes for each building aspect ratio are analyzed for apartments located at intermediate floors of buildings, by the aid of the computer based thermal analysis program SUNCODE-PC in five cities of Turkey: Erzurum, Ankara, Diyarbakir, Izmir, and Antalya. The results are evaluated in terms of annual energy consumption and the optimum values are driven. Comparison of optimum values and the total energy consumption rates is made among the analyzed cities.

Identification of area-level influences on regions of high cancer incidence in Queensland, Australia : a classification tree approach

Background: Strategies for cancer reduction and management are targeted at both individual and area levels. Area-level strategies require careful understanding of geographic differences in cancer incidence, in particular the association with factors such as socioeconomic status, ethnicity and accessibility. This study aimed to identify the complex interplay of area-level factors associated with high area-specific incidence of Australian priority cancers using a classification and regression tree (CART) approach. Methods: Area-specific smoothed standardised incidence ratios were estimated for priority-area cancers across 478 statistical local areas in Queensland, Australia (1998-2007, n=186,075). For those cancers with significant spatial variation, CART models were used to identify whether area-level accessibility, socioeconomic status and ethnicity were associated with high area-specific incidence. Results: The accessibility of a person’s residence had the most consistent association with the risk of cancer diagnosis across the specific cancers. Many cancers were likely to have high incidence in more urban areas, although male lung cancer and cervical cancer tended to have high incidence in more remote areas. The impact of socioeconomic status and ethnicity on these associations differed by type of cancer. Conclusions: These results highlight the complex interactions between accessibility, socioeconomic status and ethnicity in determining cancer incidence risk.

Developing the atlas of cancer in Queensland : methodological issues

Background: Achieving health equity has been identified as a major challenge, both internationally and within Australia. Inequalities in cancer outcomes are well documented, and must be quantified before they can be addressed. One method of portraying geographical variation in data uses maps. Recently we have produced thematic maps showing the geographical variation in cancer incidence and survival across Queensland, Australia. This article documents the decisions and rationale used in producing these maps, with the aim to assist others in producing chronic disease atlases. Methods: Bayesian hierarchical models were used to produce the estimates. Justification for the cancers chosen, geographical areas used, modelling method, outcome measures mapped, production of the adjacency matrix, assessment of convergence, sensitivity analyses performed and determination of significant geographical variation is provided. Conclusions: Although careful consideration of many issues is required, chronic disease atlases are a useful tool for assessing and quantifying geographical inequalities. In addition they help focus research efforts to investigate why the observed inequalities exist, which in turn inform advocacy, policy, support and education programs designed to reduce these inequalities.

A Multifaceted Strategy for Implementation of the Ottawa Ankle Rules in Two Emergency Departments

Problem Despite widespread acceptance of the Ottawa ankle rules for assessment of acute ankle injuries, their application varies considerably. Design Before and after study. Background and setting Emergency departments of a tertiary teaching hospital and a community hospital in Australia. Key measures for improvement Documentation of the Ottawa ankle rules, proportion of patients referred for radiography, proportion of radiographs showing a fracture. Strategies for change Education, a problem specific radiography request form, reminders, audit and feedback, and using radiographers as “gatekeepers.” Effects of change Documentation of the Ottawa ankle rules improved from 57.5% to 94.7% at the tertiary hospital, and 51.6% to 80.8% at the community hospital (P<0.001 for both). The proportion of patients undergoing radiography fell from 95.8% to 87.2% at the tertiary hospital, and from 91.4% to 78.9% at the community hospital (P<0.001 for both). The proportion of radiographs showing a fracture increased from 20.4% to 27.1% at the tertiary hospital (P=0.069), and 15.2% to 27.2% (P=0.002) at the community hospital. The missed fracture rate increased from 0% to 2.9% at the tertiary hospital and from 0% to 1.6% at the community hospital compared with baseline (P=0.783 and P=0.747). Lessons learnt Assessment of case note documentation has limitations. Clinician groups seem to differ in their capacity and willingness to change their practice. A multifaceted change strategy including a problem specific radiography request form can improve the selection of patients for radiography.

Partial agonists of the [alpha]3[beta]4[ast] neuronal nicotinic acetylcholine receptor reduce ethanol consumption and seeking in rats

Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) impact millions of individuals and there remain few effective treatment strategies. Despite evidence that neuronal nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) have a role in AUDs, it has not been established which subtypes of the nAChR are involved. Recent human genetic association studies have implicated the gene cluster CHRNA3-CHRNA5-CHRNB4 encoding the α3, α5, and β4 subunits of the nAChR in susceptibility to develop nicotine and alcohol dependence; however, their role in ethanol-mediated behaviors is unknown due to the lack of suitable and selective research tools. To determine the role of the α3, and β4 subunits of the nAChR in ethanol self-administration, we developed and characterized high-affinity partial agonists at α3β4 nAChRs, CP-601932, and PF-4575180. Both CP-601932 and PF-4575180 selectively decrease ethanol but not sucrose consumption and operant self-administration following long-term exposure. We show that the functional potencies of CP-601932 and PF-4575180 at α3β4 nAChRs correlate with their unbound rat brain concentrations, suggesting that the effects on ethanol self-administration are mediated via interaction with α3β4 nAChRs. Also varenicline, an approved smoking cessation aid previously shown to decrease ethanol consumption and seeking in rats and mice, reduces ethanol intake at unbound brain concentrations that allow functional interactions with α3β4 nAChRs. Furthermore, the selective α4β2(*) nAChR antagonist, DHβE, did not reduce ethanol intake. Together, these data provide further support for the human genetic association studies, implicating CHRNA3 and CHRNB4 genes in ethanol-mediated behaviors. CP-601932 has been shown to be safe in humans and may represent a potential novel treatment for AUDs.

Helping someone with problem drinking: Mental health first aid guidelines - a Delphi expert consensus study

Background Alcohol is a leading risk factor for avoidable disease burden. Research suggests that a drinker's social network can play an integral role in addressing hazardous (i.e., high-risk) or problem drinking. Often however, social networks do not have adequate mental health literacy (i.e., knowledge about mental health problems, like problem drinking, or how to treat them). This is a concern as the response that a drinker receives from their social network can have a substantial impact on their willingness to seek help. This paper describes the development of mental health first aid guidelines that inform community members on how to help someone who may have, or may be developing, a drinking problem (i.e., alcohol abuse or dependence). Methods A systematic review of the research and lay literature was conducted to develop a 285-item survey containing strategies on how to help someone who may have, or may be developing, a drinking problem. Two panels of experts (consumers/carers and clinicians) individually rated survey items, using a Delphi process. Surveys were completed online or via postal mail. Participants were 99 consumers, carers and clinicians with experience or expertise in problem drinking from Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Items that reached consensus on importance were retained and written into guidelines. Results The overall response rate across all three rounds was 68.7% (67.6% consumers/carers, 69.2% clinicians), with 184 first aid strategies rated as essential or important by ≥80% of panel members. The endorsed guidelines provide guidance on how to: recognize problem drinking; approach someone if there is concern about their drinking; support the person to change their drinking; respond if they are unwilling to change their drinking; facilitate professional help seeking and respond if professional help is refused; and manage an alcohol-related medical emergency. Conclusion The guidelines provide a consensus-based resource for community members seeking to help someone with a drinking problem. Improving community awareness and understanding of how to identify and support someone with a drinking problem may lead to earlier recognition of problem drinking and greater facilitation of professional help seeking.

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.