Modelling Long-Run Relationship between Spot and Future Prices of Different Commodities

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there exists any kind of relationship between the spot and future prices of the different commodities or not. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, crude oil, gold, natural gas and silver are considered from January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2012. For this purpose, ADF test and KPSS test are used in testing the stationarity whereas Johansen Cointegration test is used in testing the long-run relationship. Johansen co-integration test exhibits that there at least 5 co-integrating pairs out of 6 except crude oil. Moreover, the result of Granger Causality supports the fact that if two or more than two time series tend to be co-integrated there exists either uni-directional or bi-directional relationship. However, our results reveled that although there exists the co-integration between the variable, one might not granger causes another .VAR model is also used to measure the proportion of effects. These findings will help the derivative market and arbitragers in developing the strategies to gain the maximum profit in the financial market.

ERP implementation in SMEs : Consultant – Client Views On Critical Success Factors

ERP system is now attracting the SMEs, as it is now economical and affordable for them. The current research emphasizes on “how to make ERP successful for SMEs”. The researchers have identified various critical success factors in implementation of ERP. The research gap noticed by author is the missing point of view of ERP consultant. This thesis investigates the answer of research question “What are the critical success factors in implementation of ERP system in SMEs in opinion of ERP consultants and acquiring organizations”. The purpose of this study is to identify the highly important and less important factors. The study results will suggest the ERP managers where they have to concentrate more in order to achieve success. Literature is reviewed in order to setup a base for empirical study. Aplenty of work is found related to CSFs, SMEs and ERP. The authors and factors are organized in form of a table that tells which author is agreed upon which factor. Final result of literature review is a list of 14 CSFs. The qualitative research methodology is used to investigate the ERP in Pakistani SMEs. A case study approach is selected because of unified nature of SMEs in Pakistan. A rice mill is selected as a case because it contains maximum SME attributes. The opinion of a Microsoft certified consultant is obtained by a semi-structured interview. Similarly a semi-structured interview is conducted with CIO of SME that acquired ERP. Both the interviewees are asked about all 14 factors, whether they are agree or not and why. The collected evidences then analyzed by tabulation. The factors upon which both the participants found agreed, taken as highly important. Similarly the factors upon which both participants found disagree, taken as less important. Study results present a grid with four quadrants, the CSFs highly important in opinion of both, the CSFs less important in opinion of both, CSFs important in opinion of consultant but not client, CSFs important in opinion of client but not consultant. In discussion part, the significance of each factor is discussed individually. It is discussed that why some factors are high/less important for SMEs in Pakistan. The study output communicates a message that the success of ERP system in SMEs is linked with careful management of five important factors, the project management, top management support, user training and education, consultant participation and ERP teamwork and composition. The ERP consultants and managers can divert their concentration from less important factors such as user involvement, culture readiness and ERP package selection, toward the highly important factors. The limitations of the study are small number of interviews and less people involved, provide an opportunity for future research in this field of information system.

Additional revenue opportunities in pulp mills and their impacts on the kraft process

Although the concept of multi-products biorefinery provides an opportunity to meet the future demands for biofuels, biomaterials or chemicals, it is not assured that its implementation would improve the profitability of kraft pulp mills. The attractiveness will depend on several factors such as mill age and location, government incentives, economy of scale, end user requirements, and how much value can be added to the new products. In addition, the effective integration of alternative technologies is not straightforward and has to be carefully studied. In this work, detailed balances were performed to evaluate possible impacts that lignin removal, hemicelluloses recovery prior to pulping, torrefaction and pyrolysis of wood residues cause on the conventional mill operation. The development of mill balances was based on theoretical fundamentals, practical experience, literature review, personal communication with technology suppliers and analysis of mill process data. Hemicelluloses recovery through pre-hydrolysis of chips leads to impacts in several stages of the kraft process. Effects can be observed on the pulping process, wood consumption, black liquor properties and, inevitably, on the pulp quality. When lignin is removed from black liquor, it will affect mostly the chemical recovery operation and steam generation rate. Since mineral acid is used to precipitate the lignin, impacts on the mill chemical balance are also expected. A great advantage of processing the wood residues for additional income results from the fact that the pulping process, pulp quality and sales are not harmfully affected. For pulp mills interested in implementing the concept of multi-products biorefinery, this work has indicated possible impacts to be considered in a technical feasibility study.

“Between publication culture and funder mandates - What is the future for disciplinary repositories?”

Workshop at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Uuden tiedon hankinta ja hyödyntäminen organisaation innovaatioprosesseissa

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia, miten uuden ja erityisesti tulevaisuuteen suuntautuvan tiedon hankintaa ja hyödyntämistä organisaatioiden innovaatioprosesseissa voidaan tarkastella ja jäsentää sekä kehittää avoimen innovaatioteorioiden pohjalta. Tulevaisuustiedon järjestelmällinen hyödyntäminen on yhä tärkeämmässä asemassa 2010-luvun organisaatioiden innovatiivisuuden ja kilpailukyvyn kannalta. Tämä on abstraktin luonteensa vuoksi erittäin haasteellista mutta teoriassa mahdollista, jos uuden tiedon liittämisestä organisaation käyttöön on tehty tärkeä ja selkeä osa koko organisaation strategiaa. Uuden tiedon tehokkaaseen käsittelemiseen ja siirtämiseen organisaatiossa tarvitaan suunnitelmallista ennakointitoimintaa, sosiaalisia sovittelumekanismeja ja rakentavaa yhteistyötä myös ulkopuolisten toimijoiden kanssa. Valitun teoriakehyksen pohjalta laadittiin yksinkertaistettu kyselytutkimus, johon oli liitetty absorptiiviseen kapasiteettiin, visionääriseen kyvykkyyteen, ennakointitoimintaan ja uuden tiedon käsittelyyn liittyviä käsitteitä. Kyselyn tarkoituksena oli myös tarjota organisaatiolle mahdollisuus tarkastella nykyistä tilaansa uuden tiedon monivaiheisen hyödyntämisen kannalta. Kyselytutkimus lähetettiin suomalaisille teollisuusyrityksille ja saatuja vastauksia käytettiin empiirisenä aineistona. Empiiristä aineistoa tarkasteltiin kvantitatiivisin menetelmän ja tuloksista saatiin hyödyllistä tietoa yritysten toiminnasta käytännöntasolta.

Container logistic innovations in forest-energy sector: Markets, future service concepts and technical improvements

The report presents the results of the commercialization project called the Container logistic services for forest bioenergy. The project promotes new business that is emerging around overall container logistic services in the bioenergy sector. The results assess the European markets of the container logistics for biomass, enablers for new business creation and required service bundles for the concept. We also demonstrate the customer value of the container logistic services for different market segments. The concept analysis is based on concept mapping, quality function deployment process (QFD) and business network analysis. The business network analysis assesses key shareholders and their mutual connections. The performance of the roadside chipping chain is analysed by the logistic cost simulation, RFID system demonstration and freezing tests. The EU has set the renewable energy target to 20 % in 2020 of which Biomass could account for two-thirds. In the Europe, the production of wood fuels was 132.9 million solid-m3 in 2012 and production of wood chips and particles was 69.0 million solidm3. The wood-based chips and particle flows are suitable for container transportation providing market of 180.6 million loose- m3 which mean 4.5 million container loads per year. The intermodal logistics of trucks and trains are promising for the composite containers because the biomass does not freeze onto the inner surfaces in the unloading situations. The overall service concept includes several packages: container rental, container maintenance, terminal services, RFID-tracking service, and simulation and ERP-integration service. The container rental and maintenance would provide transportation entrepreneurs a way to increase the capacity without high investment costs. The RFID-concept would lead to better work planning improving profitability throughout the logistic chain and simulation supports fuel supply optimization.

Images of the future of privacy: A privacy dynamics framework and a causal layered

The future of privacy in the information age is a highly debated topic. In particular, new and emerging technologies such as ICTs and cognitive technologies are seen as threats to privacy. This thesis explores images of the future of privacy among non-experts within the time frame from the present until the year 2050. The aims of the study are to conceptualise privacy as a social and dynamic phenomenon, to understand how privacy is conceptualised among citizens and to analyse ideal-typical images of the future of privacy using the causal layered analysis method. The theoretical background of the thesis combines critical futures studies and critical realism, and the empirical material is drawn from three focus group sessions held in spring 2012 as part of the PRACTIS project. From a critical realist perspective, privacy is conceptualised as a social institution which creates and maintains boundaries between normative circles and preserves the social freedom of individuals. Privacy changes when actors with particular interests engage in technology-enabled practices which challenge current privacy norms. The thesis adopts a position of technological realism as opposed to determinism or neutralism. In the empirical part, the focus group participants are divided into four clusters based on differences in privacy conceptions and perceived threats and solutions. The clusters are fundamentalists, pragmatists, individualists and collectivists. Correspondingly, four ideal-typical images of the future are composed: ‘drift to low privacy’, ‘continuity and benign evolution’, ‘privatised privacy and an uncertain future’, and ‘responsible future or moral decline’. The images are analysed using the four layers of causal layered analysis: litany, system, worldview and myth. Each image has its strengths and weaknesses. The individualistic images tend to be fatalistic in character while the collectivistic images are somewhat utopian. In addition, the images have two common weaknesses: lack of recognition of ongoing developments and simplistic conceptions of privacy based on a dichotomy between the individual and society. The thesis argues for a dialectical understanding of futures as present images of the future and as outcomes of real processes and mechanisms. The first steps in promoting desirable futures are the awareness of privacy as a social institution, the awareness of current images of the future, including their assumptions and weaknesses, and an attitude of responsibility where futures are seen as the consequences of present choices.

Commodity Future Price Premiums – Case EU ETS

The purpose of this thesis was to study commodity future price premiums and their nature on emission allowance markets. The EUA spot and future contracts traded on the secondary market during EU ETS Phase 2 and Phase 3 were selected for empirical testing. The cointegration of spot and future prices was examined with Johansen cointegration methodology. Daily interest rates with a similar tenor to the future contract maturity were used in the cost-of-carry model to calculate the theoretical future prices and to estimate the deviation from the fair value of future contracts, assumed to be explained by the convenience yield. The time-varying dependence of the convenience yield was studied by regression testing the correlation between convenience yield and the time to maturity of the future contract. The results indicated cointegration between spot and future prices, albeit depending on assumptions on linear trend and intercept in cointegration vector Dec-14 and Dec-15 contracts. The convenience yield correlates positively with the time-to-maturity of the future contract during Phase 2, but negatively during Phase 3. The convenience yield featured positive correlation with spot price volatility and negative correlation with future price volatility during both Phases 2 and 3.

Language of the Future, Language of the PRC –Representations of Putonghua in South China Morning Post

As the national language of the PRC, the world's growing economic power and the sovereign of Hong Kong, Putonghua is a language with multiple facets of relevance for the current Special Administrative Region. This paper seeks to explore and explain different representations of Putonghua in Hong Kong's leading English-language newspaper South China Morning Post in articles published between January 2012 and February 2013. The representations are studied in the context of the different discourses in which they appear, some of which feature language(s) as a central theme and some more marginally. An overview is first presented of the scholarly research on the most important developments in Hong Kong's complex language scene from the beginnings of the colony until present day, with the aim of detecting developments and attitudes with potential relevance or parallels to the context of Putonghua today. The paper then reflects on the media and its role in producing and perpetuating discourses in the society, before turning to more practical considerations on Hong Kong's English and Chinese language media and the role of South China Morning Post in it. The methods used in analysing the discourses are those of discourse analysis, with textual analysis as its starting point, in which close attention is paid to linguistic forms as the concrete representations of meanings in a text. Particularly the immediate contexts of the appearances of the word “Putonghua” in the articles were studied carefully to detect vocabulary, grammar and semantical choices as signs of different discourses, potentially also revealing fundamental underlying assumptions and other “hidden meanings” in the text. Some of the most distinctive discourses in which different representations of Putonghua appeared were the Instrumental value for the individual (in which Putonghua was represented as a form of social capital); Othering of the mainlanders (in which Putonghua served as a concrete marker of distinction); Belonging to China (Putonghua as a symbol of unity); and Cultural distinctiveness of Hong Kong (Putonghua as a threat to Hong Kong's history and culture, as embodied in Cantonese). Some of these discourses were more prominent than others, and for example the discourse of Belonging to China was relatively rarely enacted in Hongkongers' voices. In general, the findings were not surprising in the light of the history, but showed a fair degree of consistency with what has been written earlier about the languages and attitudes towards them in Hong Kong. It has often been noted that Putonghua and its relation with Cantonese is a matter linked with the social identity of the colony and its citizens. While it appeared that there were no strict taboos in the representations of Putonghua in the societal context, the possibility of self-censorship cannot be ruled out as a factor toning down political discourses in the representations.

Brazil on the spot: Rio+20, sustainability and a role for science

Rio +20, or the United Nations Conference for Sustainable Development, will take place at the end of this month of June 2012. In this paper, our central argument is that Brazil, as the host of Rio+20, has a historic opportunity to make the conference a success and take a decisive step in becoming a world leader in the shift from the traditional development paradigm to a new, sustainable development paradigm. To do that, Brazil will have to resolve a paradox: on the one hand the country has modern legislation and world class science, and on the other hand very poor social and environmental decision-making in recent times. In this column, we examine the green economy as a trajectory that leads to sustainable development and describe some pilot experiences at the sub-national level in Brazil. We discuss how science, and particularly plant sciences, will be essential to the transition to sustainable development. Finally, we propose immediate actions that we call upon the Brazilian government to commit to and to announce during this pivotal Rio+20 moment, which should serve as a milestone for all nations in building a sustainable future.

Energiantuotannossa talteenotetun hiilidioksidin hyötykäyttö

Hiilidioksidilla on merkittävä vaikutus ilmastoon ja suurin osa ihmisten käyttämästä energiasta perustuu hiilipohjaisiin polttoaineisiin. Energiantuotannossa talteenotetun hiilidioksidin hyötykäyttö tarjoaa erinomaisen mahdollisuuden ilmastonmuutoksen vai-kutusten vähentämiseen vaikuttamatta kuitenkaan merkittävästi käytettyihin energialäh-teisiin. CO2:n talteenottotekniikat voidaan jakaa neljään periaatteeltaan erilaiseen tyyppiin: pol-ton jälkeiseen talteenottoon, ennen polttoa tapahtuvaan talteenottoon, happipolttoon ja kemialliseen kiertoon perustuvaan palamiseen. Polton jälkeinen ja ennen polttoa tapah-tuva talteenotto edustavat eniten tutkittua ja käytettyä tekniikkaa. Hyötykäyttökohteita CO2:lla on useita, joista nykyiset merkittävimmät ovat öljyn tuo-tannon tehostus ja elintarviketeollisuus. Tulevaisuudessa merkittäviä käyttökohteita tulee todennäköisesti olemaan uusiutuvan energian varastointi synteettiseen metaa-niin/metanoliin, kemian-, paperi- ja selluteollisuuden prosessit ja vedenkäsittely.

Future at risk: A study on the Club of Rome

Sustainability, in its modern meaning, has been discussed for more than forty years. However, many experts believe that humanity is still far from being sustainable. Some experts have argued that humanity should seek survivable development because it is too late for sustainable one, since 1990s. Obviously, some problems prevented humanity from becoming sustainable. This thesis focuses on the agenda of sustainability discussions and seeks for the essential topics missing from it. For this purpose, the research is conducted on 21 out of 33 books endorsed by the Club of Rome. All of these books are titled ‘a report to the Club of Rome’. The Club of Rome is an organization that has been constantly working on the problems of humankind for the past 40 years. This thesis has three main components: first, the messages of the reports to the Club of Rome, second, academics perceptions of the Club, and third, the Club member perceptions of its evolution, messages and missing topics. This thesis investigates the evolution of four aspects in the reports. The first one is the agenda of the reports. The second one is the basic approaches of the Club (i.e., global, long-term and holistic). The third one is the ways that the reports treat free market and growth ideology. The fourth one is the approach of the reports toward components of the global complex system (i.e., society, economy and politics). The outline of the thesis is as follows. First, the original reports are briefly summarized. After this, the academic perceptions are discussed and structured around three concepts (i.e., futures studies, sustainability and degrowth). In the final step, the perceptions of the experts are collected and analysed, using a variation of Delphi method, called ‘in-depth interviews’, and ‘quality content analysis’ method. This thesis is useful for those interested in sustainability, global problems, and the Club of Rome. This thesis concludes that the reports from 1972 up to 1980 were cohesive in discussing topics related to the problems of humankind. The topics of the reports are fragmented after this period. The basic approaches of CoR are visible in all the reports. However, after 1980, those approaches and especially holistic thinking are only visible in the background. Regarding the free market and growth ideology, although all the reports are against them, the early reports were more explicitly expressing their disagreement. A milestone is noticeable around 1980 when such objections went completely to the background. However, recent reports are more similar to those of 1970s both in adopting a holistic approach and in explicitly criticizing free market and growth ideology. Finally, concerning the components of global complex system, the society is excluded and the focus of the reports is on politics, economy and their relation. Concerning the topics missing from the debate, this thesis concludes that no major research has been conducted on the fundamental and underlying reasons of the problems (e.g. beliefs, values and culture). Studying the problems without considering their underlying reasons, obviously, leads to superficial and ineffective solutions. This might be one of the reasons that sustainability discussions have as yet led to no concrete result.