THE ROLE OF BIRD MANAGEMENT IN FIRE PROTECTION

Two years ago, Mike Fall and I showed you some ideas we had regarding mod¬ern architecture and bird problems. This year we've switched to considering bird hazards in older frame dwellings and on buildings where a fire hazard may be ap¬parent. During a class project some time ago, I was examining a nest of house sparrows and discovered that these birds incorporated cellulose cigarette filters into their nests. Filters were stripped of their paper wrapping and were apparently used by the sparrows as a substitute for or a supplement to fluffy air-born seeds and seed mat¬erials. The incidence of the cigarette filters varied. In the nests that I sampled the numbers varied anywhere from six up to two dozen filter remnants. We feel that the incidence will probably vary with the relative availability of discarded cigarette filter butts. We are concerned with the incidence of filters as an index to the possibility that the birds are picking up live cigarette butts, and this leads us to investigate some records of fires over the past three quarters of a century that were claimed to have been caused by birds.

Climatic oscillations shape the phylogeographical structure of Atlantic Forest fire-eye antbirds (Aves: Thamnophilidae)

In the present study, mitochondrial (mt)DNA sequence data were used to examine the genetic structure of fire-eye antbirds (genus Pyriglena) along the Atlantic Forest and the predictions derived from the river hypothesis and from a Last Glacial Maximum Pleistocene refuge paleomodel were compared to explain the patterns of genetic variation observed in these populations. A total of 266 individuals from 45 populations were sampled over a latitudinal transect and a number of phylogeographical and population genetics analytical approaches were employed to address these questions. The pattern of mtDNA variation observed in fire-eye antbirds provides little support for the view that populations were isolated by the modern course of major Atlantic Forest rivers. Instead, the data provide stronger support for the predictions of the refuge model. These results add to the mounting evidence that climatic oscillations appear to have played a substantial role in shaping the phylogeographical structure and possibly the diversification of many taxa in this region. However, the results also illustrate the potential for more complex climatic history and historical changes in the geographical distribution of Atlantic Forest than envisioned by the refuge model. (c) 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105, 900824.

STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS: THE TRANSITION FROM NONEQUILIBRIUM TO EQUILIBRIUM IN INTEGRATE-AND-FIRE DYNAMICS

The transient and equilibrium properties of dynamics unfolding in complex systems can depend critically on specific topological features of the underlying interconnections. In this work, we investigate such a relationship with respect to the integrate-and-fire dynamics emanating from a source node and an extended network model that allows control of the small-world feature as well as the length of the long-range connections. A systematic approach to investigate the local and global correlations between structural and dynamical features of the networks was adopted that involved extensive simulations (one and a half million cases) so as to obtain two-dimensional correlation maps. Smooth, but diverse surfaces of correlation values were obtained in all cases. Regarding the global cases, it has been verified that the onset avalanche time (but not its intensity) can be accurately predicted from the structural features within specific regions of the map (i.e. networks with specific structural properties). The analysis at local level revealed that the dynamical features before the avalanches can also be accurately predicted from structural features. This is not possible for the dynamical features after the avalanches take place. This is so because the overall topology of the network predominates over the local topology around the source at the stationary state.

Robust statistical modeling using the Birnbaum-Saunders-t distribution applied to insurance

In this paper, we carry out robust modeling and influence diagnostics in Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) regression models. Specifically, we present some aspects related to BS and log-BS distributions and their generalizations from the Student-t distribution, and develop BS-t regression models, including maximum likelihood estimation based on the EM algorithm and diagnostic tools. In addition, we apply the obtained results to real data from insurance, which shows the uses of the proposed model. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States market evolution and product valuation

In this work we discuss the secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States of America. First, we give an overview of the life settlement market: how it came into existence, its growth prospects and the ethical issues it arises. Secondly, we discuss the characteristics of the different life insurance products present in the market and describe how life settlements are originated. Life settlement transactions tend to be long and complex transactions that require the involvement of a number of parties. Also, a direct investment into life insurance policies is fraught with a number of practical issues and entails risks that are not directly related to longevity. This may reduce the efficiency of a direct investment in physical policies. For these reasons, a synthetic longevity market has evolved. The number of parties involved in a synthetic longevity transaction is typically smaller and the broker-dealer transferring the longevity exposure will be retaining most or all of the risks a physical investment entails. Finally, we describe the main methods used in the market to evaluate life settlement investments and the role of life expectancy providers.

Experimental Data on Fire-Resistance Behavior of Reinforced Concrete Structures with Example Calculations

This thesis selects concrete, steel and their relation as research subjects, mainly commentary and discusses the property changes of steel and concrete materials under and after high temperature.The differences and comparisons of reasearch methods and ways between different researchers and different papers,particularly for chinese researches and chinese papers,and partly for comparison between chinese papers methods and Euro-Amercian papers methods about Fire Resistance Behavior of Reinforced Concrete will be summarized and analyzed.The researches on fire-resistance behavior of reinforced concrete become more and more important all over the world. And I would find differences between Chinese researches results, between Chinese researches results and other countries researches results.

Changes in plant metabolism induced by dioxygenase inhibitors and their effect on the epiphytic microbial community and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) control

Fire blight, caused by the gram negative bacterium Erwinia amylovora, is one of the most destructive bacterial diseases of Pomaceous plants. Therefore, the development of reliable methods to control this disease is desperately needed. This research investigated the possibility to interfere, by altering plant metabolism, on the interactions occurring between Erwinia amylovora, the host plant and the epiphytic microbial community in order to obtain a more effective control of fire blight. Prohexadione-calcium and trinexapac-ethyl, two dioxygenase inhibitors, were chosen as a chemical tool to influence plant metabolism. These compounds inhibit the 2-oxoglutarate-dependent dioxygenases and, therefore, they greatly influence plant metabolism. Moreover, dioxygenase inhibitors were found to enhance plant resistance to a wide range of pathogens. In particular, dioxygenase inhibitors application seems a promising method to control fire blight. From cited literature, it is assumed that these compounds increase plant defence mainly by a transient alteration of flavonoids metabolism. We tried to demonstrate, that the reduction of susceptibility to disease could be partially due to an indirect influence on the microbial community established on plant surface. The possibility to influence the interactions occurring in the epiphytic microbial community is particularly interesting, in fact, the relationships among different bacterial populations on plant surface is a key factor for a more effective biological control of plant diseases. Furthermore, we evaluated the possibility to combine the application of dioxygenase inhibitors with biological control in order to develop an integrate strategy for control of fire blight. The first step for this study was the isolation of a pathogenic strain of E. amylovora. In addition, we isolated different epiphytic bacteria, which respond to general requirements for biological control agents. Successively, the effect of dioxygenase inhibitors treatment on microbial community was investigated on different plant organs (stigmas, nectaries and leaves). An increase in epiphytic microbial population was found. Further experiments were performed with aim to explain this effect. In particular, changes in sugar content of nectar were observed. These changes, decreasing the osmotic potential of nectar, might allow a more consistent growth of epiphytic bacteria on blossoms. On leaves were found similar differences as well. As far as the interactions between E. amylovora and host plant, they were deeply investigated by advanced microscopical analysis. The influence of dioxygenase inhibitors and SAR inducers application on the infection process and migration of pathogen inside different plant tissues was studied. These microscopical techniques, combined with the use of gpf-labelled E. amylovora, allowed the development of a bioassay method for resistance inducers efficacy screening. The final part of the work demonstrated that the reduction of disease susceptibility observed in plants treated with prohexadione-calcium is mainly due to the accumulation of a novel phytoalexins: luteoforol. This 3-deoxyflavonoid was proven to have a strong antimicrobial activity.

Quantifying the Economics of Medical Malpractice - A View from a Civil Law Perspective

Life is full of uncertainties. Legal rules should have a clear intention, motivation and purpose in order to diminish daily uncertainties. However, practice shows that their consequences are complex and hard to predict. For instance, tort law has the general objectives of deterring future negligent behavior and compensating the victims of someone else's negligence. Achieving these goals are particularly difficult in medical malpractice cases. To start with, when patients search for medical care they are typically sick in the first place. In case harm materializes during the treatment, it might be very hard to assess if it was due to substandard medical care or to the patient's poor health conditions. Moreover, the practice of medicine has a positive externality on the society, meaning that the design of legal rules is crucial: for instance, it should not result in physicians avoiding practicing their activity just because they are afraid of being sued even when they acted according to the standard level of care. The empirical literature on medical malpractice has been developing substantially in the past two decades, with the American case being the most studied one. Evidence from civil law tradition countries is more difficult to find. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the empirical literature on medical malpractice, using two civil law countries as a case-study: Spain and Italy. The goal of this thesis is to investigate, in the first place, some of the consequences of having two separate sub-systems (administrative and civil) coexisting within the same legal system, which is common in civil law tradition countries with a public national health system (such as Spain, France and Portugal). When this holds, different procedures might apply depending on the type of hospital where the injury took place (essentially whether it is a public hospital or a private hospital). Therefore, a patient injured in a public hospital should file a claim in administrative courts while a patient suffering an identical medical accident should file a claim in civil courts. A natural question that the reader might pose is why should both administrative and civil courts decide medical malpractice cases? Moreover, can this specialization of courts influence how judges decide medical malpractice cases? In the past few years, there was a general concern with patient safety, which is currently on the agenda of several national governments. Some initiatives have been taken at the international level, with the aim of preventing harm to patients during treatment and care. A negligently injured patient might present a claim against the health care provider with the aim of being compensated for the economic loss and for pain and suffering. In several European countries, health care is mainly provided by a public national health system, which means that if a patient harmed in a public hospital succeeds in a claim against the hospital, public expenditures increase because the State takes part in the litigation process. This poses a problem in a context of increasing national health expenditures and public debt. In Italy, with the aim of increasing patient safety, some regions implemented a monitoring system on medical malpractice claims. However, if properly implemented, this reform shall also allow for a reduction in medical malpractice insurance costs. This thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides a review of the empirical literature on medical malpractice, where studies on outcomes and merit of claims, costs and defensive medicine are presented. Chapter 2 presents an empirical analysis of medical malpractice claims arriving to the Spanish Supreme Court. The focus is on reversal rates for civil and administrative decisions. Administrative decisions appealed by the plaintiff have the highest reversal rates. The results show a bias in lower administrative courts, which tend to focus on the State side. We provide a detailed explanation for these results, which can rely on the organization of administrative judges career. Chapter 3 assesses predictors of compensation in medical malpractice cases appealed to the Spanish Supreme Court and investigates the amount of damages attributed to patients. The results show horizontal equity between administrative and civil decisions (controlling for observable case characteristics) and vertical inequity (patients suffering more severe injuries tend to receive higher payouts). In order to execute these analyses, a database of medical malpractice decisions appealed to the Administrative and Civil Chambers of the Spanish Supreme Court from 2006 until 2009 (designated by the Spanish Supreme Court Medical Malpractice Dataset (SSCMMD)) has been created. A description of how the SSCMMD was built and of the Spanish legal system is presented as well. Chapter 4 includes an empirical investigation of the effect of a monitoring system for medical malpractice claims on insurance premiums. In Italy, some regions adopted this policy in different years, while others did not. The study uses data on insurance premiums from Italian public hospitals for the years 2001-2008. This is a significant difference as most of the studies use the insurance company as unit of analysis. Although insurance premiums have risen from 2001 to 2008, the increase was lower for regions adopting a monitoring system for medical claims. Possible implications of this system are also provided. Finally, Chapter 5 discusses the main findings, describes possible future research and concludes.

Essays on Unemployment Insurance

Can the potential availability of unemployment insurance (UI) affect the behavior of employed workers and the duration of their employment spells? After discussing few straightforward reasons why UI may affect employment duration, I apply a regression kink design (RKD) to address this question using linked employer-employee data from the Brazilian labor market. Exploiting the UI schedule, I find that potential benefit level significantly affects the duration of employment spells. This effect is local to low skilled workers and, surprisingly, indicates that a 1\% increase in unemployment benefits increases job duration by around 0.3\%. Such result is driven by the fact that higher UI decreases the probability of job quits, which are not covered by UI in Brazil. These estimates are robust to permutation tests and a number of falsification tests. I develop a reduced-form welfare formula to assess the economic relevance of this result. Based on that, I show that the positive effect on employment duration implies in a higher optimal benefit level. Moreover, the formula shows that the elasticity of employment duration impacts welfare just with the same weight as the well-known elasticity of unemployment duration to benefit level.

Fire safety engineering: Confronto tra approccio prescrittivo e prestazionale applicato ad una attivita alberghiera

La complessa materia della prevenzione incendi può essere approcciata secondo due strategie sostanzialmente differenti. Da una parte, l’approccio di tipo deterministico, imperante in Italia, si concretizza nell’emanazione di norme estremamente prescrittive e nel ricorso da parte del progettista a strumenti di calcolo molto semplici. Il pregio maggiore di tale approccio risiede senza dubbio alcuno nella sua estrema semplicità, nella garanzia di una certa omogeneità di applicazione e nella possibilità di erogare in tempi ragionevoli una formazione uniforme ed accettabile ai controllori. Mentre il limite più evidente consiste nella rigidità, talora eccessiva, delle prescrizioni normative e nelle procedure di calcolo da adottare. Dall’altra, un approccio di tipo ingegneristico (Fire Safety Engineering), seguito per lo più nei paesi anglosassoni, si basa sulla predizione della dinamica evolutiva dell’incendio tramite l’applicazione di idonei modelli di calcolo fisicamente basati (physically sound). Punto di forza di questa seconda strategia è la sua estrema flessibilità, che consente la simulazione d’incendi di complessità anche molto elevata. Per contro i limiti più evidenti di tale approccio risiedono nella problematica validazione sperimentale dei modelli in argomento, data la natura distruttiva delle prove che andrebbero condotte, nella spinta preparazione richiesta ai professionisti ed ancor più ai controllori, dato il proliferare negli anni di modelli anche molto diversi tra loro, ed, infine, nel caso di raffinati modelli di campo, in un onere computazionale non sempre sostenibile con i PC di comune diffusione. Allo stato attuale in Italia il ricorso alla Fire Safety Engineering è di fatto circoscritto alle applicazioni per le quali non esiste una specifica norma prescrittiva, su tutte la valutazione del rischio in attività a rischio di incidente rilevante e la Fire Investigation; talora essa è impiegata anche per la valutazione della sicurezza equivalente in occasione di richiesta di deroga a norme prescrittive.

Modellazione avanzata di un incendio in uno stabilimento industriale secondo i principi della fire safety engineering

Lo sviluppo di un incendio all’interno di depositi di liquidi infiammabili costituisce uno scenario particolarmente critico a causa della rilevanza delle conseguenze che ne possono scaturire. L’incendio causato dalla formazione di grandi pozze sviluppatesi a seguito di forature dei contenitori e il rapido coinvolgimento di tutto lo stoccaggio rappresentano uno scenario di incendio tipico di queste realtà. Si ha quindi la necessità di adottare provvedimenti atti a garantire specifici obiettivi di sicurezza tramite l’introduzione di misure antincendio. La prevenzione incendi, sino al 2007, era basata esclusivamente su norme di tipo prescrittivo, in base alle quali si definivano le misure di sicurezza secondo un criterio qualitativo. Successivamente l’ingegneria antincendio si è sempre più caratterizzata da approcci basati su analisi di tipo prestazionale, in grado di dimostrare il raggiungimento dell’obiettivo di sicurezza sulla base del comportamento reale d’incendio ottenuto mediante un’accurata simulazione del fuoco che ragionevolmente può prodursi nell'attività. La modellazione degli incendi è divenuta possibile grazie allo sviluppo di codici di fluidodinamica computazionale (CFD), in grado di descrivere accuratamente l’evoluzione delle fiamme. Il presente studio si inserisce proprio nell’ambito della modellazione CFD degli incendi, eseguita mediante il software Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). L’obiettivo dell’elaborato è studiare l’azione dell’impianto di spegnimento a schiuma sullo sviluppo di un incendio di pozza in un deposito di liquidi infiammabili, in termini di riduzione della potenza termica rilasciata dal fuoco, al fine di determinare le temperature massime raggiunte, in corrispondenza delle quali valutare il comportamento di resistenza strutturale degli edifici. Il presente lavoro è articolato in 6 capitoli. Dopo il Capitolo 1, avente carattere introduttivo, vengono richiamati nel Capitolo 2 i principali concetti della chimica e fisica degli incendi. Nel Capitolo 3 vengono esaminate le normative intese ad unificare l’approccio ingegneristico alla sicurezza antincendio. Il Capitolo 4 fornisce una dettagliata descrizione del software di calcolo, FDS - Fire Dynamics Simulator, adoperato per la modellazione dell’incendio. Nel Capitolo 5 si procede alla progettazione prestazionale che conduce alla determinazione della curva naturale d'incendio in presenza degli impianti di spegnimento automatici. Infine nel Capitolo 6 si riportano le considerazioni conclusive.

Fluctuation properties in random walks on networks and simple integrate and fire models

In questa tesi si è studiato l’insorgere di eventi critici in un semplice modello neurale del tipo Integrate and Fire, basato su processi dinamici stocastici markoviani definiti su una rete. Il segnale neurale elettrico è stato modellato da un flusso di particelle. Si è concentrata l’attenzione sulla fase transiente del sistema, cercando di identificare fenomeni simili alla sincronizzazione neurale, la quale può essere considerata un evento critico. Sono state studiate reti particolarmente semplici, trovando che il modello proposto ha la capacità di produrre effetti "a cascata" nell’attività neurale, dovuti a Self Organized Criticality (auto organizzazione del sistema in stati instabili); questi effetti non vengono invece osservati in Random Walks sulle stesse reti. Si è visto che un piccolo stimolo random è capace di generare nell’attività della rete delle fluttuazioni notevoli, in particolar modo se il sistema si trova in una fase al limite dell’equilibrio. I picchi di attività così rilevati sono stati interpretati come valanghe di segnale neurale, fenomeno riconducibile alla sincronizzazione.

Proposta di ritraduzione dei primi capitoli di A Song of Ice and Fire e analisi della resa italiana di Sergio Altieri

Lo scopo di questa tesi è quello di presentare una proposta di ritraduzione per i primi tre capitoli del primo romanzo di A Song of Ice and Fire. La scelta di questo tema è stata dettata dalla contestata traduzione ufficiale di quest'opera alla quale sono personalmente appassionato, e dal conseguente desiderio di sfruttare le conoscenze acquisite durante i miei studi per ovviare ai problemi della resa di Sergio Altieri. Il lavoro è sviluppato in tre capitoli e un'appendice. Nel primo capitolo vengono analizzate le problematiche generali legate alla traduzione. Viene inoltre presentata una sinossi all'opera per semplificare la lettura della tesi. Nel secondo capitolo vengono esaminati i problemi principali della traduzione di Altieri. Il terzo capitolo è dedicato al confronto tra l'opera originale, la traduzione ufficiale e la proposta di ritraduzione dei primi capitoli. In appendice è presente la mia traduzione integrale dei tre capitoli del romanzo.

Fire victim identification by post-mortem dental CT: Radiologic evaluation of restorative materials after exposure to high temperatures

The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of high resolution CT to radiologically define teeth filling material properties in terms of Hounsfield units after high temperature exposure.