Seasonality in Southeast Asian stock markets: some new evidence on day-of-the-week effects

This paper examines the evidence for a day-of-the-week effect in five Southeast Asian stock markets: South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand. Findings indicate significant seasonality for three of the five markets. Market risk, proxied by the return on the FTA World Price Index, is not sufficient to explain this calendar anomaly. Although an extension of the risk-return equation to incorporate interactive seasonal dummy variables can explain some significant day-of-the-week effects, market risk alone appears insufficient to characterize this phenomenon.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate associated with different ENSO phases by ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts

Predictability of the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate associated with different El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases is investigated in this study based on the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES. During the period from 1960 to 2005, the models well capture the WNP summer climate anomalies during most of years in different ENSO phases except the La Niña decaying summers. In the El Niño developing, El Niño decaying and La Niña developing summers, the prediction skills are high for the WNP summer monsoon index (WNPMI), with the prediction correlation larger than 0.7. The high prediction skills of the lower-tropospheric circulation during these phases are found mainly over the tropical western Pacific Ocean, South China Sea and subtropical WNP. These good predictions correspond well to their close teleconnection with ENSO and the high prediction skills of tropical SSTs. By contrast, for the La Niña decaying summers, the prediction skills are considerably low with the prediction correlation for the WNPMI near to zero and low prediction skills around the Philippines and subtropical WNP. These poor predictions relate to the weak summer anomalies of the WNPMI during the La Niña decaying years and no significant connections between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies and the SSTs over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean in observations. However, the models tend to predict an apparent anomalous cyclone over the WNP during the La Niña decaying years, indicating a linearity of the circulation response over WNP in the models prediction in comparison with that during the El Niño decaying years which differs from observations. In addition, the models show considerable capability in describing the WNP summer anomalies during the ENSO neutral summers. These anomalies are related to the positive feedback between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation and the local SSTs. The models can capture this positive feedback but with some uncertainties from different ensemble members during the ENSO neutral summers.

Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.

Germination and survival of tetraspores of Kappaphycus alvarezii var. alvarezii (Solieriaceae, Rhodophyta) introduced in subtropical waters of Brazil

The carrageenophyte Kappaphycus alvarezii was introduced in 1995 and vegetatively propagated in Ubatuba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, for the purpose of commercial cultivation. This species produces tetraspores mainly in the austral summer and fall. Tetraspore germination and survival were studied under different conditions of temperature, photon flux density, and photoperiod in the laboratory. Field experiments were also carried out. Although tetraspores of K. alvarezii germinated, they had low survival rates, most dying after 20 days. Recruitment of K. alvarezii tetraspores did not occur in experiments conducted in the field. The results indicated that the establishment of K. alvarezii via spore production in the natural environment of the south-east coast of Brazil is rather remote.

More than Just the Final Straw: Stolen Elections as Revolutionary Triggers

Stolen elections are triggering events that overcome barriers to revolutionary action against electoral authoritarian regimes. They mobilize ordinary citizens, strengthen the opposition, and divide the regime. As neo-institutionalist theories of revolution suggest, the relative openness of electoral authoritarianism inhibits mass protest. But when elections are stolen, regimes undergo “closure,” increasing the probability of protest. The failure of other potential revolutionary precipitants underlines that stolen elections are not merely replaceable final straws. Stolen elections have not only been crucial for the emergence of revolutionary situations, they have shaped outcomes as well. Linking popular mobilization to fraudulent elections has become part of the repertoire of contention of democratic revolutionaries.

L’infidélité dans le couple : Charles et Emma Bovary dans Madame Bovary de Flaubert et Dinah et Loulou dans Traversée de la Mangrove de Maryse Condé

Ce travail sur l’infidélité dans le couple traite les différentes sources de l’ennui ainsi que leurs conséquences dans la vie du couple. Les différentes opinions de différents auteurs sur la cause de l’infidélité dans le couple sont vues en long et en large. L’éducation féminine du XIXème siècle éclaire sur le handicap qui a entrainé certaines filles dans le malheur car l’éducation de l’époque ne les avait pas bien préparées pour devenir de bonnes épouses. Ce mémoire montre l’image de la religion dans ces deux oeuvres : Madame Bovary et Traversée de la mangrove. La question est de voir comment ces auteurs peignent la religion dans ces oeuvres et pourquoi ils adoptent l’infidélité pour sauver la femme de son ennui. Enfin, la comparaison de ces ennuis est faite afin de voir que dans ces couples, malgré le fait qu’ils appartiennent à des époques différentes, l’ennui dans le couple est le même. Ces auteurs ont procédé aux mêmes stratégies pour sauver le couple de son ennui. La morale critique et religieuse a été utilisée pour aborder ce thème, lorsque nous avons fait une lecture biblique de ces deux oeuvres.

Taylor principle and inflation stability in emerging market countriesw

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the validity of the Taylor principle for inflation control in 12 developing countries that use inflation targeting regimes: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. The test is based on a state-space model to determine when each country has followed the principle; then a threshold unit root test is used to verify if the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target depends on compliance with the Taylor principle. The results show that such compliance leads to the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target in all cases. Furthermore, in most cases, non-compliance with the Taylor principle leads to nonstationary deviation of the expected inflation.

Para além da norma: reflexões sobre as instituições de regulação das organizações da sociedade civil de interesse público

Alterações normativas são de eficácia limitada quando não acompanhadas do aperfeiçoamento das instituições encarregadas de aplicar, zelar e desenvolver as normas jurídicas. Esse documento contrasta o modelo regulatório brasileiro com dois outros modelos paradigmáticos (o do Reino Unido, baseado em uma agência reguladora própria, e o das Filipinas, um caso inédito de autorregulação reconhecida pelo Estado). A Análise conclui que inexiste, no Brasil, um órgão ou espaço institucional com competência exclusiva para regular o setor, estando as competências regulatórias espalhadas ente vários órgãos (principalmente os Ministérios da Justiça, Desenvolvimento Social, Saúde e Educação), sem uma instância superior de coordenação

Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.

Caracterização e avaliação de três grupos de arroz-de-sequeiro de diferentes procedências por meio da sensitividade à radiação gama

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Molecular systematics of Thorea (Rhodophyta, Thoreales) species in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Remittances by emigrants: issues and evidence

Includes bibliography

The who start study suicidal behaviors across different areas of the world

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) study entitled Suicide Trends in At-Risk Territories (START) is an international multisite initiative that aims to stimulate suicide research and prevention across different areas of the globe. A central component of the study is the development of registration systems for fatal and nonfatal suicidal behaviors. Aims: This paper provides an overview of the data collected on suicidal behaviors from the participating locations in the START study. Method: Descriptive statistics on the data are presented in terms of age, sex, and method. Results: Agreater proportion of suicide deaths occurred among males. In all areas except the Philippines more females than males engaged in nonfatal suicidal behaviors. Compared to Australia, Italy, New Zealand, the Philippines, and Hong Kong SAR, in the Pacific Islands suicide most often occurs in younger age groups. Results indicate notable variations between countries in choice of method. A greater proportion of suicides occurred by hanging in Pacific Islands, while inhalation of carbon monoxide, use of firearms, ingestion of chemicals and poisons, and drug overdose were the most frequent methods of choice in other areas. Conclusion: The information drawn from this study demonstrates the enormous variation in suicidal behavior across the areas involved in the START Study. Further research is needed to assess the reliability of the established data-recording systems for suicidal behaviors. The baseline data established in START may allow the development of suicide prevention initiatives sensitive to variation in the profile of suicide across different locations. © 2013 Hogrefe Publishing.

Indústria calçadista brasileira e concorrência internacional: uma análise da qualidade dos produtos exportados e das estratégias adotadas pelas empresas (1989-2006)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Are we building competitive and liveable cities?: Guidelines for developing eco-efficient and socially inclusive infrastructure

This guideline jointly published by The UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), and the UN Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT), in partnership with the Urban Design Lab of the Earth Institute, Columbia University, provides practical tools for city planners and decision makers to reform urban planning and infrastructure design according to the principles of eco-efficiency and social inclusiveness. It includes case studies from the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, Japan and Sri Lanka.