Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, part 2 of 4: designing elicitation

An introduction to design of eliciting knowledge from experts.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 4 of 4: eliciting a conditional probability table

An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

The aesthetic system of entertainment

Entertainment Industries is the first book to map entertainment as a cultural system. Including work from world-renowned analysts such as Henry Jenkins and Jonathan Gray, this innovative collection explains what entertainment is and how it works. Entertainment is audience-centred culture. The Entertainment Industries are a uniquely interdisciplinary collection of evolving businesses that openly monitor evolving cultural trends and work within them. The producers of entertainment – central to that practice– are the new artists. They understand audiences and combine creative, business and legal skills in order to produce cultural products that cater to them. Entertainment Industries describes the characteristics of entertainment, the systems that produce it, and the role of producers and audiences in its development, as well as explaining the importance of this area of study, and how it might be better integrated into Universities.

Risky strategic behaviour : unintended consequences of good intentions in the homelessness service system

The delivery of human services occurs through a complex and often volatile system characterised by both competing and cooperating efforts. A recent strategic intention of government has been to integrate disparate service providers and programs into a more effective and efficient system using competitive funding regimes. A program of amalgamation has also been forecast and promoted as a further mechanism by which to link up smaller agencies thus creating economy and efficiency in the scale and scope of their service modes. Despite the current reliance on competitive funding models and amalgamation as the preferred ways forward for the sector little is known about their integrative capacity including their ability to predict outcomes and their consequences : the ‘unknown unknowns’. Drawing on an extensive data set of human services integration initiatives in Queensland, Australia, this paper examines the impact of government policy and service models and the risks arising from the tensions between competition and accountability on the one hand and the established good will and trust on the other. It is argued that unresolved, these tensions can lead to a weakening of the social infrastructure and make the system more vulnerable to inherent systemic risks. The paper finds that government’s efforts to externalise risk to the non-government sector leads to fragmentation of the service system and fractured collaborative capability. These unintended outcomes themselves have the unintended consequence of leaving governments disconnected from the service system and unable to provide the leadership role and direction necessary for sustained integration. Moreover, facilitating such a leadership role is undermined by behaviours that are directly contrary to collective integration models.

Traction power system simulation in electrified railways

Electricity has been the major source of power in most railway systems. Reliable, efficient and safe power distribution to the trains is vitally important to the overall quality of railway service. Like any large-scale engineering system, design, operation and planning of traction power systems rely heavily on computer simulation. This paper reviews the major features on modelling and the general practices for traction power system simulation; and introduces the development of the latest simulation approach with discussions on simulation results and practical applications. Remarks will also be given on the future challenges on traction power system simulation.

Monitoring identity of past, current and future : a performance management system perspective

This paper seeks to explore how organisations can effectively use performance management systems (PMS) to monitor collective identities. The monitoring of relationships between identity and an influential PMS—the balanced scorecard (BSC)—are explored. Drawing from identity and management accounting literature, this paper argues that identity products, patternings and processes are commonly positioned, monitored and interpreted through the multiple perspectives and levels of the BSC. Specifically, human, technical and organisational capital under the Learning and Growth perspective of the BSC can incorporate various identity measures that sustain the relative, distinctive and fluid nature of identities. The value of this research is to strengthen the theoretical grounds which position identity as an important dimension of organisational capital in PMS.

Young and unlicensed : risky driving before entering the licensing system

Objective: On-road driving before gaining a valid licence (pre-Licence driving) represents a risk for all road users. Pre-Licence driving among young people who obtained a Provisional licence within an enhanced graduated driver licensing program in Queensland, Australia, was investigated. Methods: Recently-licensed drivers (n = 1032) aged 17-19 years (M = 17.54) completed a survey exploring their driving experiences while on their Learners licence. Six months later, 355 of these drivers completed the same survey exploring their experiences on their Provisional (intermediate) licence. Results: Twelve percent of participants reported pre-Licence driving. Pre-Licence drivers reported significantly more risky driving as Learners and Provisional drivers. Conclusions: Pre-Licence drivers not only place themselves and other road users at risk at the time but also continue to do so through their subsequent risky driving. Pre-licence driving should be discouraged, and parents should be encouraged to monitor car use and the driving behaviour of their children.

The ghrelin signalling system is involved in the consumption of sweets

The gastric-derived orexigenic peptide ghrelin affects brain circuits involved in energy balance as well as in reward. Indeed, ghrelin activates an important reward circuit involved in natural- as well as drug-induced reward, the cholinergic-dopaminergic reward link. It has been hypothesized that there is a common reward mechanism for alcohol and sweet substances in both animals and humans. Alcohol dependent individuals have higher craving for sweets than do healthy controls and the hedonic response to sweet taste may, at least in part, depend on genetic factors. Rat selectively bred for high sucrose intake have higher alcohol consumption than non-sucrose preferring rats and vice versa. In the present study a group of alcohol-consuming individuals selected from a population cohort was investigated for genetic variants of the ghrelin signalling system in relation to both their alcohol and sucrose consumption. Moreover, the effects of GHS-R1A antagonism on voluntary sucrose- intake and operant self-administration, as well as saccharin intake were investigated in preclinical studies using rodents. The effects of peripheral grelin administration on sucrose intake were also examined. Here we found associations with the ghrelin gene haplotypes and increased sucrose consumption, and a trend for the same association was seen in the high alcohol consumers. The preclinical data show that a GHS-R1A antagonist reduces the intake and self-administration of sucrose in rats as well as saccharin intake in mice. Further, ghrelin increases the intake of sucrose in rats. Collectively, our data provide a clear indication that the GHS-R1A antagonists reduces and ghrelin increases the intake of rewarding substances and hence, the central ghrelin signalling system provides a novel target for the development of drug strategies to treat addictive behaviours. © 2011 Landgren et al.

Developing a framework for Six Sigma in financial service institutions : empirical evidence from expert interviews

Six Sigma is considered to be an important management philosophy to obtain satisfied customers. But financial service organisations have been slow to adopt Six Sigma issues so far. Despite the extensive effort that has been invested and benefits that can be obtained, the systematic implementation of Six Sigma in financial service organisations is limited. As a company wide implementation framework is missing so far, this paper tries to fill this gap. Based on theory, a conceptual framework is developed and evaluated by experts from financial institutions. The results show that it is very important to link Six Sigma with the strategic as well as the operations level. Furthermore, although Six Sigma is a very important method for improving quality of processes others such as Lean Management are also used This requires a superior project portfolio management to coordinate resources and projects of Six Sigma with the other methods used. Beside the theoretical contribution, the framework can be used by financial service companies to evaluate their Six Sigma activities. Thus, the framework grounded through literature and empirical data will be a useful guide for sustainable and successful implementation of a Six Sigma initiative in financial service organisations.