Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

Young drivers’ responses to anti-speeding advertisements: Comparison of self-report and objective measures of persuasive processing and outcomes

Objective Self-report measures are typically used to assess the effectiveness of road safety advertisements. However, psychophysiological measures of persuasive processing (i.e., skin conductance response [SCR]) and objective driving measures of persuasive outcomes (i.e., in-vehicle GPS devices) may provide further insights into the effectiveness of these advertisements. This study aimed to explore the persuasive processing and outcomes of two anti-speeding advertisements by incorporating both self-report and objective measures of speeding behaviour. In addition, this study aimed to compare the findings derived from these different measurement approaches. Methods Young drivers (N = 20, Mage = 21.01 years) viewed either a positive or negative emotion-based anti-speeding television advertisement. Whilst viewing the advertisement, SCR activity was measured to assess ad-evoked arousal responses. The RoadScout® GPS device was then installed into participants’ vehicles for one week to measure on-road speed-related driving behaviour. Self-report measures assessed persuasive processing (emotional and arousal responses) and actual driving behaviour. Results There was general correspondence between the self-report measures of arousal and the SCR and between the self-report measure of actual driving behaviour and the objective driving data (as assessed via the GPS devices). Conclusions This study provides insights into how psychophysiological and GPS devices could be used as objective measures in conjunction with self-report measures to further understand the persuasive processes and outcomes of emotion-based anti-speeding advertisements.

How professional development impacts on experienced teachers' perceptions of their ICT practices

Teachers are at the forefront of Information Communication Technology (ICT) use in schools. Teachers face many challenges and competing priorities such as literacy, numeracy and changing curriculum frameworks and are expected to adopt new ICT practices to improve students¿ outcomes. Effective professional development (PD) methods must be identified and implemented. This research examined two core issues: (1) experienced teachers' perceptions of their ICT practices and (2) how PD courses have affected these practices. This case study and its findings has important implications for the implementation of effective PD in schools.

Exploring an innovative educational approach to facilitating student nurses' clinical-reasoning skills in North Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

This study examined the effect of an educational intervention utilizing principles of cognitive apprenticeship on students’ ability to apply clinical reasoning skills within the context of a purpose-built clinical vignette. A quasi-experimental, non-equivalent control-group design was used to evaluate the effect of the educational intervention on students’ accuracy, inaccuracy and self-confidence in clinical reasoning. This study makes an important contribution to nursing education by providing evidence to understand how best to facilitate nursing students’ development of clinical reasoning.

Ethical leadership in a time of increasing accountability

Australia, like many other countries, has embraced national testing as part of wider reforms and increased accountability in schooling. Results for standardised testing programs, such as NAPLAN, are widely published yet form only one part of accountability for educators. We argue that accountability also has moral, ethical and professional dimensions. In this paper we offer a discussion of background to our study of ethical leadership in a time of data driven or contractual accountability. Based on Starratt’s (1996) model, we define ethical leadership as a social, relational practice concerned with the moral purpose of education (Angus, 2006). Our central thesis is that given increasing accountabilities, school leaders need to consider approaches to ethical leadership to improve quality and equity in education and achieve equitable outcomes for all students. The paper concludes with key implications for school leaders.

Supporting quality timely PhD completions: Delivering research outcomes

The case study used a three-phase organising process to explain how design and implementation of an accessible and interactive electronic thesis submission form streamlined quality assurance of theses and their timely dissemination via an online thesis repository. The quality of the theses submitted is assured by key academics in their final sign off of the form. It describes the role of shared cultural value in ensuring ready acceptance of a change process within one university and highlights the value of communication in achieving positive change. Quality standards as defined by an external policy framework are shown to be interpreted at the local university level to enhance the PhD completion experience. It describes the impact of moving quality assurance processes to an online environment on research activities; considering the potential for quality assurance to improve universities’ teaching, learning and research activities by facilitating academic oversight of the quality assurance process and reducing the overheads associated with monitoring, measuring and reporting on quality assurance measures.

Predicting surgical outcomes for paediatric spinal deformity patients using subject specific finite element models

INTRODUCTION Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a spinal deformity, which may require surgical correction by attaching rods to the patient’s spine using screws inserted into the vertebrae. Complication rates for deformity correction surgery are unacceptably high. Determining an achievable correction without overloading the adjacent spinal tissues or implants requires an understanding of the mechanical interaction between these components. Our novel patient specific modelling software creates individualized finite element models (FEM) representing the thoracolumbar spine and ribcage of scoliosis patients. We have recently applied the model to investigate the influence of increasing magnitudes of surgically applied corrective force on predicted deformity correction...

Organisational belongingness mediates the relationship between sources of stress and post-trauma outcomes in fire-fighters

Previous research with emergency service workers has examined the relationship between operational and organisational stress and negative indicators of mental health, and generally found that organisational stress is more strongly related to pathology than operational stress. The current study aimed to create and test a model predicting both posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and posttraumatic growth (PTG) simultaneously in a sample of fire-fighters (N = 250). The results found that the model demonstrated good fit for the data. In contrast to previous research operational stress was directly related to PTSD symptoms, while organisational stress was not. Organisational stress was indirectly related to PTG, through the mediating role of organisational belongingness. This research identified organisational belongingness as a good target for psychosocial interventions aimed at promoting positive adaptation following the experience of trauma in emergency services.

Curriculum reform in testing and accountability contexts

Recent international educational developments have important implications for the skills and understandings in curriculum and assessment that teachers develop, both in pre-service and in practice. Global developments in curriculum and assessment reform require teachers to utilise a network of knowledges and develop a repertoire of assessment skills and understandings. In a context of testing, accountability and auditing, data analysis skills are increasingly required to examine pedagogic practices for the development of intervention teaching and learning strategies to improve learning outcomes for all students (Marsh, 2009). However, too often the data are used predominantly for accountability purposes that serve at national levels as a catalyst for measurement, comparison and allocation of funding (Lingard and Sellar, 2013). With increased accountability demands brought about by global competitiveness and programs for international measurement of educational attainment, there has also emerged an increase in the use of testing, which in some countries has become the dominant form of assessment. For example in Australia, national testing of students in Years 3, 5, 7 and 9 began in 2008 under the National Australia Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN). The results from this program for each school are published on the My School website (www.myschool.edu.au), increasing the competitive nature of the testing and intensifying the demands on teachers and schools. In particular, there has been a shift in the enacted curriculum in Australia to a focus on literacy and numeracy because the curriculum is tested.

A preliminary investigation into adrenal responsiveness and outcomes in patients with cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction

PURPOSE: This study investigated the significance of baseline cortisol levels and adrenal response to corticotropin in shocked patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS: A short corticotropin stimulation test was performed in 35 patients with cardiogenic shock after AMI by intravenously injecting of 250 μg of tetracosactrin (Synacthen). Blood samples were obtained at baseline (T0) before and at 30 (T30) and 60 (T60) minutes after the test to determine plasma total cortisol (TC) and free cortisol concentrations. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality and its association with T0 TC and maximum response to corticotropin (maximum difference [Δ max] in cortisol levels between T0 and the highest value between T30 and T60). RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality was 37%, and the median time to death was 4 days (interquartile range, 3-9 days). There was some evidence of an increased mortality in patients with T0 TC concentrations greater than 34 μg/dL (P=.07). Maximum difference by itself was not an independent predictor of death. Patients with a T0 TC 34 μg/dL or less and Δ max greater than 9 μg/dL appeared to have the most favorable survival (91%) when compared with the other 2 groups: T0 34 μg/dL or less and Δ max 9 μg/dL or less or T0 34 μg/dL or higher and Δ max greater than 9 μg/dL (75%; P=.8) and T0 greater than 34 μg/dL and Δ max 9 μg/dL or less (60%; P=.02). Corticosteroid therapy was associated with an increased mortality (P=.03). There was a strong correlation between plasma TC and free cortisol (r=0.85). CONCLUSIONS: A high baseline plasma TC was associated with a trend toward increased mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock post-AMI. Patients with lower baseline TC, but with an inducible adrenal response, appeared to have a survival benefit. A prognostic system based on basal TC and Δ max similar to that described in septic shock appears feasible in this cohort. Corticosteroid therapy was associated with adverse outcomes. These findings require further validation in larger studies.

Educational interventions for preventing vascular catheter bloodstream infections in critical care: Evidence map, systematic review and economic evaluation

Background Bloodstream infections resulting from intravascular catheters (catheter-BSI) in critical care increase patients' length of stay, morbidity and mortality, and the management of these infections and their complications has been estimated to cost the NHS annually £19.1–36.2M. Catheter-BSI are thought to be largely preventable using educational interventions, but guidance as to which types of intervention might be most clinically effective is lacking. Objective To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI in critical care units in England. Data sources Sixteen electronic bibliographic databases – including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases – were searched from database inception to February 2011, with searches updated in March 2012. Bibliographies of systematic reviews and related papers were screened and experts contacted to identify any additional references. Review methods References were screened independently by two reviewers using a priori selection criteria. A descriptive map was created to summarise the characteristics of relevant studies. Further selection criteria developed in consultation with the project Advisory Group were used to prioritise a subset of studies relevant to NHS practice and policy for systematic review. A decision-analytic economic model was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI. Results Seventy-four studies were included in the descriptive map, of which 24 were prioritised for systematic review. Studies have predominantly been conducted in the USA, using single-cohort before-and-after study designs. Diverse types of educational intervention appear effective at reducing the incidence density of catheter-BSI (risk ratios statistically significantly < 1.0), but single lectures were not effective. The economic model showed that implementing an educational intervention in critical care units in England would be cost-effective and potentially cost-saving, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios under worst-case sensitivity analyses of < £5000/quality-adjusted life-year. Limitations Low-quality primary studies cannot definitively prove that the planned interventions were responsible for observed changes in catheter-BSI incidence. Poor reporting gave unclear estimates of risk of bias. Some model parameters were sourced from other locations owing to a lack of UK data. Conclusions Our results suggest that it would be cost-effective and may be cost-saving for the NHS to implement educational interventions in critical care units. However, more robust primary studies are needed to exclude the possible influence of secular trends on observed reductions in catheter-BSI.

Effects of a multiple health behavior change intervention for colorectal cancer survivors on psychosocial outcomes and quality of life: A randomized controlled trial

Background Multiple health behavior change can ameliorate adverse effects of cancer. Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of a multiple health behavior change intervention (CanChange) for colorectal cancer survivors on psychosocial outcomes and quality of life. Methods A total of 410 colorectal cancer survivors were randomized to a 6-month telephone-based health coaching intervention (11 sessions using acceptance and commitment therapy strategies focusing on physical activity, weight management, diet, alcohol, and smoking) or usual care. Posttraumatic growth, spirituality, acceptance, mindfulness, distress, and quality of life were assessed at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Results Significant intervention effects were observed for posttraumatic growth at 6 (7.5, p < 0.001) and 12 months (4.1, p = 0.033), spirituality at 6 months (1.8, p = 0.011), acceptance at 6 months (0.2, p = 0.005), and quality of life at 6 (0.8, p = 0.049) and 12 months (0.9, p = 0.037). Conclusions The intervention improved psychosocial outcomes and quality of life (physical well-being) at 6 months with most effects still present at 12 months. (Trial Registration Number: ACTRN12608000399392).

Intracellular concentrations of Ca2+ modulate the strength of signal and alter the outcomes of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 (CD152)-CD80/CD86 interactions in CD4(+) T lymphocytes

The costimulatory receptors CD28 and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen (CTLA)-4 and their ligands, CD80 and CD86, are expressed on T lymphocytes; however, their functional roles during T cell-T cell interactions are not well known. The consequences of blocking CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions on purified mouse CD4(+) T cells were studied in the context of the strength of signal (SOS). CD4(+) T cells were activated with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) and different concentrations of a Ca2+ ionophore, Ionomycin (I), or a sarcoplasmic Ca2+ ATPase inhibitor, Thapsigargin (TG). Increasing concentrations of I or TG increased the amount of interleukin (IL)-2, reflecting the conversion of a low to a high SOS. During activation with PMA and low amounts of I, intracellular concentrations of calcium ([Ca2+](i)) were greatly reduced upon CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 blockade. Further experiments demonstrated that CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions reduced cell cycling upon activation with PMA and high amounts of I or TG (high SOS) but the opposite occurred with PMA and low amounts of I or TG (low SOS). These results were confirmed by surface T-cell receptor (TCR)-CD3 signalling using a low SOS, for example soluble anti-CD3, or a high SOS, for example plate-bound anti-CD3. Also, CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions enhanced the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Studies with catalase revealed that H2O2 was required for IL-2 production and cell cycle progression during activation with a low SOS. However, the high amounts of ROS produced during activation with a high SOS reduced cell cycle progression. Taken together, these results indicate that [Ca2+](i) and ROS play important roles in the modulation of T-cell responses by CTLA-4-CD80/CD86 interactions.

Positive psychological strengths and school engagement in primary school children

A sizeable body of research has investigated the impact of specific character strengths or traits on significant outcomes. Some recent research is beginning to consider the effects of groups of strengths, combined as a higher order variable, and termed covitality. This study investigated the combined influence of four positive character traits: gratitude, optimism, zest and persistence, upon school engagement, within a sample of 112 Australian primary school students. The combined effect of these four traits, in defining covitality as a higher or second order factor within a path analysis, was found to predict relatively higher levels of school engagement and pro-social behaviour.