Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microstructure and Crystallographic Texture Evolution During the Friction-Stir Processing of a Precipitation-Hardenable Aluminum Alloy

Friction-stir processing (FSP) has been proven as a successful method for the grain refinement of high-strength aluminum alloys. The most important attributes of this process are the fine-grain microstructure and characteristic texture, which impart suitable properties in the as-processed material. In the current work, FSP of the precipitation-hardenable aluminum alloy 2219 has been carried out and the consequent evolution of microstructure and texture has been studied. The as-processed materials were characterized using electron back-scattered diffraction, x-ray diffraction, and electron probe microanalysis. Onion-ring formation was observed in the nugget zone, which has been found to be related to the precipitation response and crystallographic texture of the alloy. Texture development in the alloy has been attributed to the combined effect of shear deformation and dynamic recrystallization. The texture was found heterogeneous even within the nugget zone. A microtexture analysis revealed the dominance of shear texture components, with C component at the top of nugget zone and the B and A(2)* components in the middle and bottom. The bulk texture measurement in the nugget zone revealed a dominant C component. The development of a weaker texture along with the presence of some large particles in the nugget zone indicates particle-stimulated nucleation as the dominant nucleation mechanism during FSP. Grain growth follows the Burke and Turnbull mechanism and geometrical coalescence.

Regionalization of extreme rainfall in India

Regionalization of extreme rainfall is useful for various applications in hydro-meteorology. There is dearth of regionalization studies on extreme rainfall in India. In this perspective, a set of 25 regions that are homogeneous in 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-day extreme rainfall is delineated based on seasonality measure of extreme rainfall and location indicators (latitude, longitude and altitude) by using global fuzzy c-means (GFCM) cluster analysis. The regions are validated for homogeneity in L-moment framework. One of the applications of the regions is in arriving at quantile estimates of extreme rainfall at sparsely gauged/ungauged locations using options such as regional frequency analysis (RFA). The RFA involves use of rainfall-related information from gauged sites in a region as the basis to estimate quantiles of extreme rainfall for target locations that resemble the region in terms of rainfall characteristics. A procedure for RFA based on GFCM-delineated regions is presented and its effectiveness is evaluated by leave-one-out cross validation. Error in quantile estimates for ungauged sites is compared with that resulting from the use of region-of-influence (ROI) approach that forms site-specific regions exclusively for quantile estimation. Results indicate that error in quantile estimates based on GFCM regions and ROI are fairly close, and neither of them is consistent in yielding the least error over all the sites. The cluster analysis approach was effective in reducing the number of regions to be delineated for RFA.

Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in Mahanadi river basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a theoretical concept that is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for probable maximum flood (PMF) that find use in planning, design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures such as flood control dams upstream of populated areas. The PMP represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends. Various methods are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations. Moisture maximization method and Hershfield method are two widely used methods. The former method maximizes the observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on the maximum daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a general frequency equation given by Chow. The present study provides one-day PMP estimates and PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin based on the aforementioned methods. There is a need for such estimates and maps, as the river basin is prone to frequent floods. Utility of the constructed PMP maps in computing PMP for various catchments in the river basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those catchments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of orographic features influencing spatial distribution of rainfall over the Western Ghats of India using satellite data

Using remotely sensed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall and topographic data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the impact of oroghraphical aspects such as topography, spatial variability of elevation and altitude of apexes are examined to investigate capacious summer monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats (WG) of India. TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall data is validated with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data at 0.5 degrees resolution over the WG. The analysis of spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall with orography of the WG ascertains that the grade of orographic precipitation depends mainly on topography of the mountain barrier followed by steepness of windward side slope and altitude of the mountain. Longer and broader, i.e. cascaded topography, elevated summits and gradually increasing slopes impel the enhancement in precipitation. Comparing topography of various states of the WG, it has been observed that windward side of Karnataka receives intense rainfall in the WG during summer monsoon. It has been observed that the rainfall is enhanced before the peak of the mountain and confined up to the height about 800m over the WG. In addition to this, the spatial distribution of heavy and very heavy rainfall events in the last 14 years has also been explored. Heavy and very heavy rain events on this hilly terrain are categorized with a threshold of precipitation (R) in the range 150>R>120mmday(-1) and exceeding 150mmday(-1) using probability distribution of TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall. The areas which are prone to heavy precipitation are identified. The study would help policy makers to manage the hazard scenario and, to improve weather predictions on mountainous terrain of the WG.

Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) Dating of Sediments from Himalaya

Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating gives the age of most recent daylight exposure or heating of samples to >400 degrees C or the formation events of authigenic minerals. These correspond to the age of sedimentation and burial, ages of thermal events like contact heating by lava flows and heating during faulting and sand dyke formation, and the formation of a mineral via chemical precipitation. With the first observation of OSL in 1985, this method now occupies centre stage in Quaternary Geochronology. The use of OSL method for sediments from Himalaya began over three decades ago. The method has since provided chronology for a variety of events, such as past glaciation events, formation ages of river terraces, paleo-lacustrine deposits, landslides, floods, seismic events with substantive new insights into timing and style of geological processes. Theoretically, the dating range of method is present to a Million years, and this critically depends on two factors, viz, luminescence properties of mineral and their radiation environments. The general working range using quartz is 200ka, and using feldspars is up to Brunhes Matuyam Boundary. Extensions beyond this limit are currently being explored.

Evaluation of Precipitation Retrievals From Orbital Data Products of TRMM Over a Subtropical Basin in India

The spatial error structure of daily precipitation derived from the latest version 7 (v7) tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) level 2 data products are studied through comparison with the Asian precipitation highly resolved observational data integration toward evaluation of the water resources (APHRODITE) data over a subtropical region of the Indian subcontinent for the seasonal rainfall over 6 years from June 2002 to September 2007. The data products examined include v7 data from the TRMM radiometer Microwave Imager (TMI) and radar precipitation radar (PR), namely, 2A12, 2A25, and 2B31 (combined data from PR and TMI). The spatial distribution of uncertainty from these data products were quantified based on performance metrics derived from the contingency table. For the seasonal daily precipitation over a subtropical basin in India, the data product of 2A12 showed greater skill in detecting and quantifying the volume of rainfall when compared with the 2A25 and 2B31 data products. Error characterization using various error models revealed that random errors from multiplicative error models were homoscedastic and that they better represented rainfall estimates from 2A12 algorithm. Error decomposition techniques performed to disentangle systematic and random errors verify that the multiplicative error model representing rainfall from 2A12 algorithm successfully estimated a greater percentage of systematic error than 2A25 or 2B31 algorithms. Results verify that although the radiometer derived 2A12 rainfall data is known to suffer from many sources of uncertainties, spatial analysis over the case study region of India testifies that the 2A12 rainfall estimates are in a very good agreement with the reference estimates for the data period considered.

Coupled Mechanisms of Precipitation and Atomization in Burning Nanofluid Fuel Droplets

Understanding the combustion characteristics of fuel droplets laden with energetic nanoparticles (NP) is pivotal for lowering ignition delay, reducing pollutant emissions and increasing the combustion efficiency in next generation combustors. In this study, first we elucidate the feedback coupling between two key interacting mechanisms, namely, secondary atomization and particle agglomeration; that govern the effective mass fraction of NPs within the droplet. Second, we show how the initial NP concentration modulates their relative dominance leading to a masterslave configuration. Secondary atomization of novel nanofuels is a crucial process since it enables an effective transport of dispersed NPs to the flame (a pre-requisite condition for NPs to burn). Contrarily, NP agglomeration at the droplet surface leads to shell formation thereby retaining NPs inside the droplet. In particular, we show that at dense concentrations shell formation (master process) dominates over secondary atomization (slave) while at dilute particle loading it is the high frequency bubble ejections (master) that disrupt shell formation (slave) through its rupture and continuous outflux of NPs. This results in distinct combustion residues at dilute and dense concentrations, thereby providing a method of manufacturing flame synthesized microstructures with distinct morphologies.

Room temperature ferromagnetism and white light emissive CdS:Cr nanoparticles synthesized by chemical co-precipitation method

Undoped and Cr (3% and 5%) doped CdS nanoparticles were synthesized by chemical co-precipitation method. The synthesized nanocrystalline particles are characterized by energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDAX), scanning electron microscope (SEM), X-ray Diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS), photoluminescence (PL), Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) and Raman spectroscopy. XRD studies indicate that Cr doping in host CdS result a structural change from Cubic phase to mixed (cubic + hexagonal) phase. Due to quantum confinement effect, widening of the band gap is observed for undoped and Cr doped CdS nanoparticles compared to bulk CdS. The average particle size calculated from band gap values is in good agreement with the TEM study calculation and it is around 4-5 nm. A strong violet emission band consisting of two emission peaks is observed for undoped CdS nanoparticles, whereas for CdS:Cr nanoparticles, a broad emission band ranging from 420 nm to 730 nm with a maximum at similar to 587 nm is observed. The broad emission band is due to the overlapped emissions from variety of defects. EPR spectra of CdS:Cr samples reveal resonance signal at g = 2.143 corresponding to interacting Cr3+ ions. VSM studies indicate that the diamagnetic CdS nanoparticles are transform to ferromagnetic for 3% Cr3+ doping and the ferromagnetic nature is diminished with increasing the doping concentration to 5%. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Index-Flood Approach Related Regional Frequency Analysis Procedures

Index-flood related regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures are in use by hydrologists to estimate design quantiles of hydrological extreme events at data sparse/ungauged locations in river basins. There is a dearth of attempts to establish which among those procedures is better for RFA in the L-moment framework. This paper evaluates the performance of the conventional index flood (CIF), the logarithmic index flood (LIF), and two variants of the population index flood (PIF) procedures in estimating flood quantiles for ungauged locations by Monte Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in Indiana in the U.S. To evaluate the PIF procedure, L-moment formulations are developed for implementing the procedure in situations where the regional frequency distribution (RFD) is the generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), generalized normal (GNO) or Pearson type III (PE3), as those formulations are unavailable. Results indicate that one of the variants of the PIF procedure, which utilizes the regional information on the first two L-moments is more effective than the CIF and LIF procedures. The improvement in quantile estimation using the variant of PIF procedure as compared with the CIF procedure is significant when the RFD is a generalized extreme value, GLO, GNO, or PE3, and marginal when it is GPA. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall

We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the most recent decade (1998-present) compared with the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (compared with 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to a cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation further, a similar comparison is performed between 1960 and 1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 compared with 1960-1978. Taking this evidence together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO.

Influence of the upwelling events on the delta C-13 and delta O-18 of the benthic bivalve shells of the South Western Continental Margin of India

In this study, the influence of the spatial and temporal variability of upwelling intensity and the associated biological productivity observed during different phases of summer monsoon along the southwestern continental margin of India (SWCMI) on the delta C-13 and delta O-18 of the inorganic biogenic carbonate shells was investigated. Multispecies benthic bivalve shells (1-5 mm) separated from ten surface sediment samples of SWCMI (off 12 degrees N, 10 degrees N and 9 degrees N) collected during the onset (OSM) and peak (PSM) phase of the summer monsoon of 2009 were analysed for delta C-13 and delta O-18. Sea surface temperature along the study region indicates prominent upwelling in PSM than in OSM. A comparison of analytical and predicted values for delta O-18 in the bivalve shells confirmed their in situ origin during both the sampling periods. During PSM, the delta C-13 values in the benthic bivalve shells were more depleted in C-13 than during OSM which recorded lower values of delta C-13 in dissolved inorganic carbon of bottom waters expected in the study region in PSM due to the upwelled waters, high surface productivity and the associated high degradation of the organic matter in the subsurface and bottom waters. However, this depletion of delta C-13 was not observed in benthic bivalve shells obtained from 10 degrees N, since it is influenced by high export fluxes of carbon from the Cochin estuary since early monsoon months.

Isotopes in cosmochemistry: recipe for a Solar System

Extreme isotopic variations among extraterrestrial materials provide great insights into the origin and evolution of the Solar System. In this tutorial review, we summarize how the measurement of isotope ratios can expand our knowledge of the processes that took place before and during the formation of our Solar System and its subsequent early evolution. The continuous improvement of mass spectrometers with high precision and increased spatial resolution, including secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) and multi collector-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS), along with the ever growing amounts of available extraterrestrial samples have significantly increased the temporal and spatial constraints on the sequence of events that took place since and before the formation of the first Solar System condensates (i.e., Ca-Al-rich inclusions). Grains sampling distinct stellar environments with a wide range of isotopic compositions were admixed to, but possibly not fully homogenized in, the Sun's parent molecular cloud or the nascent Solar System. Before, during and after accretion of the nebula, as well as the formation and subsequent evolution of planetesimals and planets, chemical and physical fractionation processes irrevocably changed the chemical and isotopic compositions of all Solar System bodies. Since the formation of the first Solar System minerals and rocks 4.568 Gyr ago, short-and long-lived radioactive decay and cosmic ray interaction also contributed to the modification of the isotopic framework of the Solar System, and permit to trace the formation and evolution of directly accessible and inferred planetary and stellar isotopic reservoirs.

Mechanism of nucleation and precipitation in Li containing Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys

Investigations on the aging hardening behavior of four Al-Li-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys were carried out using differential scanning calorimetry, transmission electron microscopy and hardness measurement. It is shown that the addition of Li inhibits the formation of Zn-rich G.P. zones in Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys. The dominant aging hardening precipitates is delta'(Al3Li) phase. Coarse T ((AlZn)(49)Mg-32) phase, instead of MgZn2, precipitates primarily on grain boundaries, and provides little strengthening. The multi-stop aging involving plastic deformation introduces in the matrix a high concentration of structural defects. These defects play different role on the nucleation of Zn-rich G.P. zones in different alloys. For the Li free alloy, structural defects act as vacancy sinks and tend to suppress the homogeneous precipitation of G.P. zones, while for the Li containing alloys, these defects promote the heterogeneous nucleation of G.P. zones and metastable MgZn2. A significant aging hardening effect is attained in deformed Li containing alloys due to the extra precipitation of fine MgZn2 in the matrix combined with deformation hardening.