A Bayesian model predicts the response of axons to molecular gradients

Axon guidance by molecular gradients plays a crucial role in wiring up the nervous system. However, the mechanisms axons use to detect gradients are largely unknown. We first develop a Bayesian “ideal observer” analysis of gradient detection by axons, based on the hypothesis that a principal constraint on gradient detection is intrinsic receptor binding noise. Second, from this model, we derive an equation predicting how the degree of response of an axon to a gradient should vary with gradient steepness and absolute concentration. Third, we confirm this prediction quantitatively by performing the first systematic experimental analysis of how axonal response varies with both these quantities. These experiments demonstrate a degree of sensitivity much higher than previously reported for any chemotacting system. Together, these results reveal both the quantitative constraints that must be satisfied for effective axonal guidance and the computational principles that may be used by the underlying signal transduction pathways, and allow predictions for the degree of response of axons to gradients in a wide variety of in vivo and in vitro settings.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

Stochastic analysis of the VEGF receptor response curve

Recently, an analysis of the response curve of the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor and its application to cancer therapy was described in [T. Alarcón, and K. Page, J. R. Soc. Lond. Interface 4, 283–304 (2007)]. The analysis is significantly extended here by demonstrating that an alternative computational strategy, namely the Krylov FSP algorithm for the direct solution of the chemical master equation, is feasible for the study of the receptor model. The new method allows us to further investigate the hypothesis of symmetry in the stochastic fluctuations of the response. Also, by augmenting the original model with a single reversible reaction we formulate a plausible mechanism capable of realizing a bimodal response, which is reported experimentally but which is not exhibited by the original model. The significance of these findings for mechanisms of tumour resistance to antiangiogenic therapy is discussed.

Frequency response function based structural damage detection using artificial neural networks

Damage detection in structures has become increasingly important in recent years. While a number of damage detection and localization methods have been proposed, few attempts have been made to explore the structure damage with frequency response functions (FRFs). This paper illustrates the damage identification and condition assessment of a beam structure using a new frequency response functions (FRFs) based damage index and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In practice, usage of all available FRF data as an input to artificial neural networks makes the training and convergence impossible. Therefore one of the data reduction techniques Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is introduced in the algorithm. In the proposed procedure, a large set of FRFs are divided into sub-sets in order to find the damage indices for different frequency points of different damage scenarios. The basic idea of this method is to establish features of damaged structure using FRFs from different measurement points of different sub-sets of intact structure. Then using these features, damage indices of different damage cases of the structure are identified after reconstructing of available FRF data using PCA. The obtained damage indices corresponding to different damage locations and severities are introduced as input variable to developed artificial neural networks. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated and validated by using the finite element modal of a beam structure. The illustrated results show that the PCA based damage index is suitable and effective for structural damage detection and condition assessment of building structures.

An analytical and experimental study of the vibration response of a clamped ribbed plate

An analytical solution is presented in this paper for the vibration response of a ribbed plate clamped on all its boundary edges by employing a travelling wave solution. A clamped ribbed plate test rig is also assembled in this study for the experimental investigation of the ribbed plate response and to provide verification results to the analytical solution. The dynamic characteristics and mode shapes of the ribbed plate are measured and compared to those obtained from the analytical solution and from finite element analysis (FEA). General good agreements are found between the results. Discrepancies between the computational and experimental results at low and high frequencies are also discussed. Explanations are offered in the study to disclose the mechanism causing the discrepancies. The dependency of the dynamic response of the ribbed plate on the distance between the excitation force and the rib is also investigated experimentally. It confirms the findings disclosed in a previous analytical study [T. R. Lin and J. Pan, A closed form solution for the dynamic response of finite ribbed plates. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 119 (2006) 917-925] that the vibration response of a clamped ribbed plate due to a point force excitation is controlled by the plate stiffness when the source is more than a quarter plate bending wavelength away from the rib and from the plate boundary. The response is largely affected by the rib stiffness when the source location is less than a quarter bending wavelength away from the rib.

Industrial JIG measurements : survey measurements assisting QUT motorsport

This paper outlines our literature review background, investigation and practical application utilizing a precise optical survey level and total station technology for a specialist industrial measurement application. The practical part of the project was to measure and check specific critical features of the Industrial JIG assembly table used by the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) Motorsport group. The JIG is used in constructing a new Formula SAE race-car frame each year and is used throughout the racing season to check the production frame for twists, bends and potential stresses. The industrial JIG table required two survey approaches, firstly determination of the overall flatness throughout its’ steel base surface. Secondly was the validation of verticality of the steel uprights used to support and hold the race-car frame in place during construction and checking alignment for key suspension components. In addition the investigation brings realisations that there are far more accurate, efficient and economical technologies to be harnessed in industrial metrology.

Shear in reinforced and unreinforced masonry : response, design and construction

This paper describes the vulnerability of masonry under shear; first the mechanisms of in-plane and out-of-plane shear performance of masonry are reviewed; both the unreinforced and lightly reinforced masonry wall systems are considered. Factors affecting the response of unreinforced and reinforced masonry to shear are described and the effect of the variability of those factors to the failure mode of masonry shear walls is also discussed. Some critique is provided on the existing design provisions in various masonry standards.

Intention, foresight and ending life : a response to "The Double Effect effect" by Charles Foster, Jonathan Herring, Karen Melham and Tony Hope, (CQ 20(1))

In this paper I examine the recent arguments by Charles Foster, Jonathan Herring, Karen Melham and Tony Hope against the utility of the doctrine of double effect. One basis on which they reject the utility of the doctrine is their claim that it is notoriously difficult to apply what they identify as its 'core' component, namely, the distinction between intention and foresight. It is this contention that is the primarily focus of my article. I argue against this claim that the intention/foresight distinction remains a fundamental part of the law in those jurisdictions where intention remains an element of the offence of murder and that, accordingly, it is essential ro resolve the putative difficulties of applying the intention/foresight distinction so as to ensure the integrity of the law of murder. I argue that the main reasons advanced for the claim that the intention/foresight distinction is difficult to apply are ultimately unsustainable, and that the distinction is not as difficult to apply as the authors suggest.

Turbulent measurements in a small subtropical estuary with semidiurnal tides

Since predictions of scalar dispersion in small estuaries can rarely be predicted accurately, new field measurements were conducted continuously at relatively high frequency for up to 50 h (per investigation) in a small subtropical estuary with semidiurnal tides. The bulk flow parameters varied in time with periods comparable to tidal cycles and other large-scale processes. The turbulence properties depended upon the instantaneous local flow properties. They were little affected by the flow history, but their structure and temporal variability were influenced by a variety of parameters including the tidal conditions and bathymetry. A striking feature of the data sets was the large fluctuations in all turbulence characteristics during the tidal cycle, and basic differences between neap and spring tide turbulence.