Approximate Bayesian computation using auxiliary model based estimates

We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms using indirect infer- ence. We embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled with a trivariate Markov process. The main objective of the analysis is to compare inferences on the Markov process when considering two di®erent indirect mod- els. The two indirect models are based on a Beta-Binomial model and a three component mixture of Binomials, with the former providing a better ¯t to the observed data.

Distribution state estimation based on particle swarm and doubly loop mutant optimization (DLM-PSO)

This paper presents a novel algorithm based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) to estimate the states of electric distribution networks. In order to improve the performance, accuracy, convergence speed, and eliminate the stagnation effect of original PSO, a secondary PSO loop and mutation algorithm as well as stretching function is proposed. For accounting uncertainties of loads in distribution networks, pseudo-measurements is modeled as loads with the realistic errors. Simulation results on 6-bus radial and 34-bus IEEE test distribution networks show that the distribution state estimation based on proposed DLM-PSO presents lower estimation error and standard deviation in comparison with algorithms such as WLS, GA, HBMO, and original PSO.

A Satellite Selection Algorithm for Achieving High Reliability of Ambiguity Resolution with GPS and Beidou Constellations

Reliability of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) of an integer least-squares (ILS) problem depends on ambiguity success rate (ASR), which in practice can be well approximated by the success probability of integer bootstrapping solutions. With the current GPS constellation, sufficiently high ASR of geometry-based model can only be achievable at certain percentage of time. As a result, high reliability of AR cannot be assured by the single constellation. In the event of dual constellations system (DCS), for example, GPS and Beidou, which provide more satellites in view, users can expect significant performance benefits such as AR reliability and high precision positioning solutions. Simply using all the satellites in view for AR and positioning is a straightforward solution, but does not necessarily lead to high reliability as it is hoped. The paper presents an alternative approach that selects a subset of the visible satellites to achieve a higher reliability performance of the AR solutions in a multi-GNSS environment, instead of using all the satellites. Traditionally, satellite selection algorithms are mostly based on the position dilution of precision (PDOP) in order to meet accuracy requirements. In this contribution, some reliability criteria are introduced for GNSS satellite selection, and a novel satellite selection algorithm for reliable ambiguity resolution (SARA) is developed. The SARA algorithm allows receivers to select a subset of satellites for achieving high ASR such as above 0.99. Numerical results from a simulated dual constellation cases show that with the SARA procedure, the percentages of ASR values in excess of 0.99 and the percentages of ratio-test values passing the threshold 3 are both higher than those directly using all satellites in view, particularly in the case of dual-constellation, the percentages of ASRs (>0.99) and ratio-test values (>3) could be as high as 98.0 and 98.5 % respectively, compared to 18.1 and 25.0 % without satellite selection process. It is also worth noting that the implementation of SARA is simple and the computation time is low, which can be applied in most real-time data processing applications.

University of Glasgow (qirdcsuog) at TREC Crowdsourcing 2011 : TurkRank-network-based worker ranking in crowdsourcing

For TREC Crowdsourcing 2011 (Stage 2) we propose a networkbased approach for assigning an indicative measure of worker trustworthiness in crowdsourced labelling tasks. Workers, the gold standard and worker/gold standard agreements are modelled as a network. For the purpose of worker trustworthiness assignment, a variant of the PageRank algorithm, named TurkRank, is used to adaptively combine evidence that suggests worker trustworthiness, i.e., agreement with other trustworthy co-workers and agreement with the gold standard. A single parameter controls the importance of co-worker agreement versus gold standard agreement. The TurkRank score calculated for each worker is incorporated with a worker-weighted mean label aggregation.

Novelty-based visual obstacle detection in agriculture

This paper describes a novel obstacle detection system for autonomous robots in agricultural field environments that uses a novelty detector to inform stereo matching. Stereo vision alone erroneously detects obstacles in environments with ambiguous appearance and ground plane such as in broad-acre crop fields with harvested crop residue. The novelty detector estimates the probability density in image descriptor space and incorporates image-space positional understanding to identify potential regions for obstacle detection using dense stereo matching. The results demonstrate that the system is able to detect obstacles typical to a farm at day and night. This system was successfully used as the sole means of obstacle detection for an autonomous robot performing a long term two hour coverage task travelling 8.5 km.

Tracking-based moving object detection

We present a novel approach for multi-object detection in aerial videos based on tracking. The proposed method mainly involves three steps. Firstly, the spatial-temporal saliency is employed to detect moving objects. Secondly, the detected objects are tracked by mean shift in the subsequent frames. Finally, the saliency results are fused with the weight map generated by tracking to get refined detection results, and in turn the modified detection results are used to update the tracking models. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on VIVID aerial videos, and the results show that our approach can reliably detect moving objects even in challenging situations. Meanwhile, the proposed method can process videos in real time, without the effect of time delay.

Cryptanalysis of RC4-based hash function

RC4-Based Hash Function is a new proposed hash function based on RC4 stream cipher for ultra low power devices. In this paper, we analyse the security of the function against collision attack. It is shown that the attacker can find collision and multi-collision messages with complexity only 6 compress function operations and negligible memory with time complexity 2 13. In addition, we show the hashing algorithm can be distinguishable from a truly random sequence with probability close to one.

Anthropogenic-based regional-scale factors most consistently explain plot-level exotic diversity in grasslands

Aim Evidence linking the accumulation of exotic species to the suppression of native diversity is equivocal, often relying on data from studies that have used different methods. Plot-level studies often attribute inverse relationships between native and exotic diversity to competition, but regional abiotic filters, including anthropogenic influences, can produce similar patterns.We seek to test these alternatives using identical scale-dependent sampling protocols in multiple grasslands on two continents. Location Thirty-two grassland sites in North America and Australia. Methods We use multiscale observational data, collected identically in grain and extent at each site, to test the association of local and regional factors with the plot-level richness and abundance of native and exotic plants. Sites captured environmental and anthropogenic gradients including land-use intensity, human population density, light and soil resources, climate and elevation. Site selection occurred independently of exotic diversity, meaning that the numbers of exotic species varied randomly thereby reducing potential biases if only highly invaded sites were chosen. Results Regional factors associated directly or indirectly with human activity had the strongest associations with plot-level diversity. These regional drivers had divergent effects: urban-based economic activity was associated with high exotic : native diversity ratios; climate- and landscape-based indicators of lower human population density were associated with low exotic : native ratios. Negative correlations between plot-level native and exotic diversity, a potential signature of competitive interactions, were not prevalent; this result did not change along gradients of productivity or heterogeneity. Main conclusion We show that plot-level diversity of native and exotic plants are more consistently associatedwith regional-scale factors relating to urbanization and climate suitability than measures indicative of competition. These findings clarify the long-standing difficulty in resolving drivers of exotic diversity using single-factor mechanisms, suggesting that multiple interacting anthropogenic-based processes best explain the accumulation of exotic diversity in modern landscapes.

Urban traffic state estimation: Fusing point and zone based data

Loop detectors are the oldest and widely used traffic data source. On urban arterials, they are mainly installed for signal control. Recently state of the art Bluetooth MAC Scanners (BMS) has significantly captured the interest of stakeholders for exploiting it for area wide traffic monitoring. Loop detectors provide flow- a fundamental traffic parameter; whereas BMS provides individual vehicle travel time between BMS stations. Hence, these two data sources complement each other, and if integrated should increase the accuracy and reliability of the traffic state estimation. This paper proposed a model that integrates loops and BMS data for seamless travel time and density estimation for urban signalised network. The proposed model is validated using both real and simulated data and the results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed model is over 90%.

Composite SaaS scaling in cloud computing using a hybrid genetic algorithm

A Software-as-a-Service or SaaS can be delivered in a composite form, consisting of a set of application and data components that work together to deliver higher-level functional software. Components in a composite SaaS may need to be scaled – replicated or deleted, to accommodate the user’s load. It may not be necessary to replicate all components of the SaaS, as some components can be shared by other instances. On the other hand, when the load is low, some of the instances may need to be deleted to avoid resource underutilisation. Thus, it is important to determine which components are to be scaled such that the performance of the SaaS is still maintained. Extensive research on the SaaS resource management in Cloud has not yet addressed the challenges of scaling process for composite SaaS. Therefore, a hybrid genetic algorithm is proposed in which it utilises the problem’s knowledge and explores the best combination of scaling plan for the components. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms existing heuristic-based solutions.

Integrated approach for diagnostics and prognostics of HP LNG pump based on health state probability estimation

Effective machine fault prognostic technologies can lead to elimination of unscheduled downtime and increase machine useful life and consequently lead to reduction of maintenance costs as well as prevention of human casualties in real engineering asset management. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique and historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To estimate a discrete machine degradation state which can represent the complex nature of machine degradation effectively, the proposed prognostic model employed a classification algorithm which can use a number of damage sensitive features compared to conventional time series analysis techniques for accurate long-term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for the comparison of intelligent diagnostic test using five different classification algorithms. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state probability using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostics system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Performance-based structural fire design and testing of structures

Fire incident in buildings is common in Hong Kong and this could lead to heavy casualties due to its high population density, so the fire safety design of the framed structure is an important research topic. This paper describes a computer tool for determination of capacity of structural safety against various fire scenarios and the well-accepted second-order direct plastic analysis is adopted for simulation of material yielding and buckling. A computer method is developed to predict structural behaviour of bare steel framed structures at elevated temperatures but the work can be applied to structures made of other materials. These effects of thermal expansion and material degradation due to heating are required to be considered in order to capture the actual behavior of the structure under fire. Degradation of material strength with increasing temperature is included by a set of temperature-stress-strain curves according to BS5950 Part 8 mainly, which implicitly allows for creep deformation. Several numerical and experimental verifications of framed structures are presented and compared against solutions by other researchers. The proposed method allows us to adopt the truly performance-based structural fire analysis and design with significant saving in cost and time.

Random Gabor based templates for facial expression recognition in images with facial occlusion

Robust facial expression recognition (FER) under occluded face conditions is challenging. It requires robust algorithms of feature extraction and investigations into the effects of different types of occlusion on the recognition performance to gain insight. Previous FER studies in this area have been limited. They have spanned recovery strategies for loss of local texture information and testing limited to only a few types of occlusion and predominantly a matched train-test strategy. This paper proposes a robust approach that employs a Monte Carlo algorithm to extract a set of Gabor based part-face templates from gallery images and converts these templates into template match distance features. The resulting feature vectors are robust to occlusion because occluded parts are covered by some but not all of the random templates. The method is evaluated using facial images with occluded regions around the eyes and the mouth, randomly placed occlusion patches of different sizes, and near-realistic occlusion of eyes with clear and solid glasses. Both matched and mis-matched train and test strategies are adopted to analyze the effects of such occlusion. Overall recognition performance and the performance for each facial expression are investigated. Experimental results on the Cohn-Kanade and JAFFE databases demonstrate the high robustness and fast processing speed of our approach, and provide useful insight into the effects of occlusion on FER. The results on the parameter sensitivity demonstrate a certain level of robustness of the approach to changes in the orientation and scale of Gabor filters, the size of templates, and occlusions ratios. Performance comparisons with previous approaches show that the proposed method is more robust to occlusion with lower reductions in accuracy from occlusion of eyes or mouth.

Key derivation function based on stream ciphers

A key derivation function (KDF) is a function that transforms secret non-uniformly random source material together with some public strings into one or more cryptographic keys. These cryptographic keys are used with a cryptographic algorithm for protecting electronic data during both transmission over insecure channels and storage. In this thesis, we propose a new method for constructing a generic stream cipher based key derivation function. We show that our proposed key derivation function based on stream ciphers is secure if the under-lying stream cipher is secure. We simulate instances of this stream cipher based key derivation function using three eStream nalist: Trivium, Sosemanuk and Rabbit. The simulation results show these stream cipher based key derivation functions offer efficiency advantages over the more commonly used key derivation functions based on block ciphers and hash functions.

Preparation and characterization of composites from starch with sugarcane bagasse nanofibres

This paper reports on the results of using unbleached sugar cane bagasse nanofibres (average diameter 26.5 nm; aspect ratio 247 assuming a dry fibre density of 1,500 kg/m3) to improve the physico-chemical properties of starch-based films. The addition of bagasse nanofibres (2.5 to 20 wt%) to modified potato starch (i.e. soluble starch) reduced the moisture uptake by up to 17 % at 58 % relative humidity. The film’s tensile strength and Young’s modulus increased by up to 100 % (3.1 to 6.2 MPa) and 300 % (66.3 to 198.3 MPa) respectively with 10 and 20 wt% fibre addition. However, the strain at yield dropped by 50 % for the film containing 10 wt% fibre. Models for composite materials were used to account for the strong interactions between the nanofibres and the starch matrix. The storage and loss moduli as well as the glass transition temperature (Tg) obtained from dynamic mechanical thermal analysis, were increased with the starch-nanofibre films indicating decreased starch chain mobility due to the interacting effect of the nanofibres. Evidence of the existence of strong interactions between the starch matrix and the nanofibres was revealed from detailed Fourier transform infra-red and scanning electron microscopic evaluation.