A measure of stability as a criterion for the verification and analysis of simulation models

The aim of this study is to define a new statistic, PVL, based on the relative distance between the likelihood associated with the simulation replications and the likelihood of the conceptual model. Our results coming from several simulation experiments of a clinical trial show that the PVL statistic range can be a good measure of stability to establish when a computational model verifies the underlying conceptual model. PVL improves also the analysis of simulation replications because only one statistic is associated with all the simulation replications. As well it presents several verification scenarios, obtained by altering the simulation model, that show the usefulness of PVL. Further simulation experiments suggest that a 0 to 20 % range may define adequate limits for the verification problem, if considered from the viewpoint of an equivalence test.

Spatialization of climate, physical and socioeconomic factors that affect the dairy goat production in Brazil and their impact on animal breeding decisions

Brazil has high climate, soil and environmental diversity, as well as distinct socioeconomic and political realities, what results in differences among the political administrative regions of the country. The objective of this study was to determine spatial distribution of the physical, climatic and socioeconomic aspects that best characterize the production of dairy goats in Brazil. Production indices of milk per goat, goat production, milk production, as well as temperature range, mean temperature, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index, relative humidity, altitude, agricultural farms; farms with native pasture, farms with good quality pasture, farms with water resources, farms that receive technical guidance, family farming properties, non-familiar farms and the human development index were evaluated. The multivariate analyses were carried out to spatialize climatic, physical and socioeconomic variables and so differenciate the Brazilian States and Regions. The highest yields of milk and goat production were observed in the Northeast. The Southeast Region had the second highest production of milk, followed by the South, Midwest and North. Multivariate analysis revealed distinctions between clusters of political-administrative regions of Brazil. The climatic variables were most important to discriminate between regions of Brazil. Therefore, it is necessary to implement animal breeding programs to meet the needs of each region.

European luxury brands made in China: the effect of low-cost country manufacturing on brand image and purchase decisions

European luxury brands have an image of manufacturing their products in the same country where the brands originate. However, in the past years many luxury brands have shifted their manufacturing to countries outside Europe. China is now a common manufacturing country for European luxury brands despite the country’s poor image as a manufacturer. Chinese manufacturing is often associated with bad quality, bad labour conditions, mass production, and counterfeits. The image of China does not quite match the image luxury brands enjoy including characteristics such as high end quality, craftsmanship, details, design, or premium price. A negatively perceived country-of-manufacture may have an effect on a brand’s image and consumers’ purchase decisions. This thesis is focused on European luxury brands manufacturing in China, and how this effects the brand image and purchase decisions among luxury consumers. The empirical part of this thesis is based on focus group research, which is a popular method in the field of qualitative research. The main focus group is female luxury consumers in Finland. This main group has been divided into three categories: 1) the university students, 2) the young career women, 3) the experienced luxury consumers. This categorization has been done based on their different stages in luxury consumption. All in all, the empirical research consisted of 11 interviews and 29 participants. The main contribution of this thesis was that there is a difference between the opinions of the younger groups (university students and young career women) and the experienced luxury consumers when discussing the effect of country-of-manufacture on brand image and purchase decisions of luxury brands. The younger participants thought that manufacturing luxury products in China might affect the brand image, but their purchase decisions would not be that much affected by the country-of-origin. The experienced luxury consumers had quite a different view on the country-of-origin of luxury brands – they found it an important decisive factor prior making purchases. The majority of experienced luxury consumers would not buy luxury products made in China, and they would always check where these products are made in.

Viability of part cargoes in tramp shipping company’s routing and scheduling decisions

Operational excellence of individual tramp shipping companies is important in today’s market, where competition is intense, freight revenues are modest and capital costs high due to global financial crisis, and tighter regulatory framework is generating additional costs and challenges to the industry. This thesis concentrates on tramp shipping, where a tramp operator in a form of an individual case company, specialized in short-sea shipping activities in the Baltic Sea region, is searching ways to map their current fleet operations and better understand potential ways to improve the overall routing and scheduling decisions. The research problem is related to tramp fleet planning where several cargoes are carried on board at the same time, which are here systematically referred to as part cargoes. The purpose is to determine the pivotal dimensions and characteristics of these part cargo operations in tramp shipping, and offer both the individual case company and wider research community better understanding of potential risks and benefits related to utilization of part cargo operations. A mixed method research approach is utilized in this research, as the objectives are related to complex, real-life business practices in the field of supply chain management and more specifically, maritime logistics. A quantitative analysis of different voyage scenarios is executed, including alternative voyage legs with varying cost structure and customer involvement. An on-line-based questionnaire designed and prepared by case company’s decision group again provides desired data of predominant attitudes and views of most important industrial customers regarding the part cargo-related operations and potential future utilization of this business model. The results gained from these quantitative methods are complied with qualitative data collection tools, along with suitable secondary data sources. Based on results and logical analysis of different data sources, a framework for characterizing the different aspects of part cargo operations is developed, utilizing both existing research and empirical investigation of the phenomenon. As conclusions, part cargoes have the ability to be part of viable fleet operations, and even increase flexibility among the fleet to a certain extent. Naturally, several hinderers for this development is recognized as well, such as potential issues with information gathering and sharing, inefficient port activities, and increased transit times.

DONATION DECISIONS: THE ROLES OF FINANCIAL AND EMOTIONAL INFORMATION

This paper investigates the impact of personal affinity toward a charity and information regarding financial management of potential recipient charitable organizations on decisions to donate. Using an experiment, the study examines how personal donation decisions differ from corporate donation decisions made by managers and how the emotional intelligence of donors affects donation decisions. The results indicate that threshold and financial information on charities assembled by the Better Business Bureau, a charity rating agency, made a significant impact on corporate donation decisions. The study also shows that emotional intelligence plays an important role that aids both individual donors and managers to regulate their donation decisions.

How health organizations can apply scenario based planning and analytic technologies to make strategic consequential decisions in a time of uncertainty

The magnitude of the cervical cancer problem, coupled with the potential for prevention with recent technological advances, made it imperative to step back and reassess strategic options for dealing with cervical cancer screening in Kenya. The purpose of this qualitative study was: 1) to explore the extent to which the Participatory Action Research (PAR) methodology and the Scenario Based Planning (SBP) method, with the application of analytics, could enable strategic, consequential, informed decision making, and 2) to determine how influential Kenyan decision makers could apply SBP with analytic tools and techniques to make strategic, consequential decisions regarding the implementation of a Cervical Self Sampling Program (CSSP) in both urban and rural settings. The theoretical paradigm for this study was action research; it was experiential, practical, and action oriented, and resulted in co-created knowledge that influenced study participants’ decision making. Action Africa Help International (AAHI) and Brock University collaborated with Local Decision Influencing Participants (LDIP’s) to develop innovative strategies on how to implement the CSSP. SBP tools, along with traditional approaches to data collection and analysis, were applied to collect, visualize and analyze predominately qualitative data. Outputs from the study included: a) a generic implementation scenario for a CSSP (along with scenarios unique to urban and rural settings), and b) 10 strategic directions and 22 supporting implementation strategies that address the variables of: 1) technical viability, 2) political support, 3) affordability, 4) logistical feasibility, 5) social acceptability, and 6) transformation/sustainability. In addition, study participants’ capacity to effectively engage in predictive/prescriptive strategic decision making was strengthened.

Public Decisions: Solidarity and the Status Quo

A public decision model specifies a fixed set of alternatives A, a variable population, and a fixed set of admissible preferences over A, common to all agents. We study the implications, for any social choice function, of the principle of solidarity, in the class of all such models. The principle says that when the environment changes, all agents not responsible for the change should all be affected in the same direction: either all weakly win, or all weakly lose. We consider two formulations of this principle: population-monotonicity (Thomson, 1983); and replacement-domination (Moulin, 1987). Under weak additional requirements, but regardless of the domain of preferences considered, each of the two conditions implies (i) coalition-strategy-proofness; (ii) that the choice only depends on the set of preferences that are present in the society and not on the labels of agents, nor on the number of agents having a particular preference; (iii) that there exists a status quo point, i.e. an alternative always weakly Pareto-dominated by the alternative selected by the rule. We also prove that replacement-domination is generally at least as strong as population-monotonicity.

The Influence of ICC Arbitral Decisions on Canadian Law: Comparative Study between Civil Law and Common Law Jurisdictions

L’objectif de cette recherche est de démontrer que les décisions arbitrales de la Chambre de commerce internationale peuvent être considérées comme une source potentielle de droit au Canada. Il existe actuellement une incertitude quant au droit matériel utilisé en arbitrage international pour résoudre les différends commerciaux. Bien que l’utilisation de la lex mercatoria pour résoudre un litige soit une option, elle se heurte à de nombreuses incertitudes terminologiques et conceptuelles. L’utilisation d’une approche méthodologique de la lex mercatoria permettrait une classification de ses sources en deux branches: (1) le droit statutaire international et (2) le stare decisis des tribunaux d’arbitrage commercial international. Une telle approche méthodologique conférerait plus de certitude quant à l’application d’un droit uniforme. De plus, elle faciliterait l’étude de l’interlégalité entre les règles de la lex mercatoria et le droit matériel interne. Plus particulièrement, elle permet de comparer les similitudes et les différences des règles du droit matériel entre les décisions arbitrales internationales, le droit statutaire international et les juridictions canadiennes de common law et de droit civil. Cette comparaison rend possible une évaluation de l’influence potentielle des décisions arbitrales de la Chambre de commerce internationale sur le droit matériel canadien et si cette influence est plus importante en droit civil ou en common law.

Planning and Scheduling Decisions in Supply Chains with Multiple Supply Modes: An Integrated Approach

We address the problem of jointly determining shipment planning and scheduling decisions with the presence of multiple shipment modes. We consider long lead time, less expensive sea shipment mode, and short lead time but expensive air shipment modes. Existing research on multiple shipment modes largely address the short term scheduling decisions only. Motivated by an industrial problem where planning decisions are independent of the scheduling decisions, we investigate the benefits of integrating the two sets of decisions. We develop sequence of mathematical models to address the planning and scheduling decisions. Preliminary computational results indicate improved performance of the integrated approach over some of the existing policies used in real-life situations.

The importance of reading difficulties and family in teachers' decisions to retain children : a case study in Costa Rica

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Metode.Bach : método para la toma de decisiones académicas y profesionales en el Bachillerato. 'Metode.Bach : method for educational and vocational decisions making within Bachillerato'.

Resumen tomado de la publicación. Con el apoyo económico del departamento MIDE de la UNED

Dynamic task allocation and coordination in cooperative multi-agent environments

La coordinació i assignació de tasques en entorns distribuïts ha estat un punt important de la recerca en els últims anys i aquests temes són el cor dels sistemes multi-agent. Els agents en aquests sistemes necessiten cooperar i considerar els altres agents en les seves accions i decisions. A més a més, els agents han de coordinar-se ells mateixos per complir tasques complexes que necessiten més d'un agent per ser complerta. Aquestes tasques poden ser tan complexes que els agents poden no saber la ubicació de les tasques o el temps que resta abans de que les tasques quedin obsoletes. Els agents poden necessitar utilitzar la comunicació amb l'objectiu de conèixer la tasca en l'entorn, en cas contrari, poden perdre molt de temps per trobar la tasca dins de l'escenari. De forma similar, el procés de presa de decisions distribuït pot ser encara més complexa si l'entorn és dinàmic, amb incertesa i en temps real. En aquesta dissertació, considerem entorns amb sistemes multi-agent amb restriccions i cooperatius (dinàmics, amb incertesa i en temps real). En aquest sentit es proposen dues aproximacions que permeten la coordinació dels agents. La primera és un mecanisme semi-centralitzat basat en tècniques de subhastes combinatòries i la idea principal es minimitzar el cost de les tasques assignades des de l'agent central cap als equips d'agents. Aquest algoritme té en compte les preferències dels agents sobre les tasques. Aquestes preferències estan incloses en el bid enviat per l'agent. La segona és un aproximació d'scheduling totalment descentralitzat. Això permet als agents assignar les seves tasques tenint en compte les preferències temporals sobre les tasques dels agents. En aquest cas, el rendiment del sistema no només depèn de la maximització o del criteri d'optimització, sinó que també depèn de la capacitat dels agents per adaptar les seves assignacions eficientment. Addicionalment, en un entorn dinàmic, els errors d'execució poden succeir a qualsevol pla degut a la incertesa i error de accions individuals. A més, una part indispensable d'un sistema de planificació és la capacitat de re-planificar. Aquesta dissertació també proveeix una aproximació amb re-planificació amb l'objectiu de permetre als agent re-coordinar els seus plans quan els problemes en l'entorn no permeti la execució del pla. Totes aquestes aproximacions s'han portat a terme per permetre als agents assignar i coordinar de forma eficient totes les tasques complexes en un entorn multi-agent cooperatiu, dinàmic i amb incertesa. Totes aquestes aproximacions han demostrat la seva eficiència en experiments duts a terme en l'entorn de simulació RoboCup Rescue.