A method for setting the size of plant conservation target areas

Realistic time frames in which management decisions are made often preclude the completion of the detailed analyses necessary for conservation planning. Under these circumstances, efficient alternatives may assist in approximating the results of more thorough studies that require extensive resources and time. We outline a set of concepts and formulas that may be used in lieu of detailed population viability analyses and habitat modeling exercises to estimate the protected areas required to provide desirable conservation outcomes for a suite of threatened plant species. We used expert judgment of parameters and assessment of a population size that results in a specified quasiextinction risk based on simple dynamic models The area required to support a population of this size is adjusted to take into account deterministic and stochastic human influences, including small-scale disturbance deterministic trends such as habitat loss, and changes in population density through processes such as predation and competition. We set targets for different disturbance regimes and geographic regions. We applied our methods to Banksia cuneata, Boronia keysii, and Parsonsia dorrigoensis, resulting in target areas for conservation of 1102, 733, and 1084 ha, respectively. These results provide guidance on target areas and priorities for conservation strategies.

Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially higher-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.

Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models

The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Determining complicated winding patterns for shim coils using stream functions and the target-field method

In a magnetic resonance imaging equipment, gradient and shim coils are needed to produce a spatially varying magnetic field throughout the sample being imaged. Such coils consist of turns of wire wound on the surface of a cylindrical tube. Shim coils in particular, must sometimes be designed to produce complicated magnetic fields to correct for impurities. Streamline patterns for shim coils are much more complicated than those for gradient coils, In this work we present a detailed analysis of streamline methods and their application to shim coil design, A method is presented for determining the winding patterns to generate these complicated fields. (C) 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

A method for the design of MRI radiofrequency coils based on triangular and pulse basis functions

This paper presents a numerical technique for the design of an RF coil for asymmetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) systems. The formulation is based on an inverse approach where the cylindrical surface currents are expressed in terms of a combination of sub-domain basis functions: triangular and pulse functions. With the homogeneous transverse magnetic field specified in a spherical region, a functional method is applied to obtain the unknown current coefficients. The current distribution is then transformed to a conductor pattern by use of a stream function technique. Preliminary MR images acquired using a prototype RF coil are presented and validate the design method. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

NMR shim coil design utilising a rapid spherical harmonic calculation method

A rapid spherical harmonic calculation method is used for the design of Nuclear Magnetic Resonance shim coils. The aim is to design each shim such that it generates a field described purely by a single spherical harmonic. By applying simulated annealing techniques, coil arrangements are produced through the optimal positioning of current-carrying circular arc conductors of rectangular cross-section. This involves minimizing the undesirable harmonies in relation to a target harmonic. The design method is flexible enough to be applied for the production of coil arrangements that generate fields consisting significantly of either zonal or tesseral harmonics. Results are presented for several coil designs which generate tesseral harmonics of degree one.

Mimicry of host cuticular hydrocarbons by salticid spider Cosmophasis bitaeniata that preys on larvae of tree ants Oecophylla smaragdina

The salticid spider Cosmophasis bitaeniata preys on the larvae of the green tree ant Oecophylla smaragdina. Gas chromatography (GC) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) reveal that the cuticle of C. bitaeniata mimics the mono- and dimethylalkanes of the cuticle of its prey. Recognition bioassays with extracts of the cuticular hydrocarbons of ants and spiders revealed that foraging major workers did not respond aggressively to the extracts of the spiders or conspecific nestmates, but reacted aggressively to conspecific nonnestmates. Typically, the ants either failed to react (as with control treatments with no extracts) or they reacted nonaggressively as with conspecific nestmates. These data indicate that the qualitative chemical mimicry of ants by C. bitaeniata allows the spiders to avoid detection by major workers of O. smaragdina.

Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Screening for leprosy in immigrants: A decision analysis model

Almost all leprosy cases reported in industrialized countries occur amongst immigrants or refugees from developing countries where leprosy continues to be an important health issue. Screening for leprosy is an important question for governments in countries with immigration and refugee programmes. A decision analysis framework is used to evaluate leprosy screening. The analysis uses a set of criteria and parameters regarding leprosy screening, and available data to estimate the number of cases which would be detected by a leprosy screening programme of immigrants from countries with different leprosy prevalences, compared with a policy of waiting for immigrants who develop symptomatic clinical diseases to present for health care. In a cohort of 100,000 immigrants from high leprosy prevalence regions (3.6/10,000), screening would detect 32 of the 42 cases which would arise in the destination country over the 14 years after migration; from medium prevalence areas (0.7/10,000) 6.3 of the total 8.1 cases would be detected, and from low prevalence regions (0.2/10,600) 1.8 of 2.3 cases. Using Australian data, the migrant mix would produce 74 leprosy cases from 10 years intake; screening would detect 54, and 19 would be diagnosed subsequently after migration. Screening would only produce significant case-yield amongst immigrants from regions or social groups with high leprosy prevalence. Since the number of immigrants to Australia from countries of higher endemnicity is not large routine leprosy screening would have a small impact on case incidence.

Seedling responses of four Australian tree species to toxic concentrations of manganese in solution culture

Little is known about the responses of Australian plants to excess metal, including Mn. It is important to remedy this lack of information so that knowledgeable decisions can be made about managing Mn contaminated sites where inhabited by Australian vegetation. Acacia holosericea, Melaleuca leucadendra, Eucalyptus crebra and Eucalyptus camaldulensis were grown in dilute solution culture for 10 weeks. The seedlings ( 42 days old) were exposed to six Mn treatments viz., 1, 8, 32, 128, 512 and 2048 muM. The order of tolerance to toxic concentrations of Mn was A. holosericea congruent to = E. crebra < M. leucadendra < E. camaldulensis, the critical external concentrations being approximately 5.1, 5.0, 21 and 330 muM, respectively. The critical tissue Mn concentrations for the youngest fully expanded leaf and total shoots were, respectively, 265 and 215 mug g(-1) DM for A. holosericea, 445 and 495 mug g(-1) DM for M. leucadendra, 495 and 710 mug g(-1) DM for E. crebra and 7230 and 6510 mug g(-1) DM for E. camaldulensis. The high tolerance of E. camaldulensis ( as opposed to the sensitivity of E. crebra) to excess Mn raises concern about fauna feeding on the plant and is consistent with hypotheses suggesting the Eucalyptus subgenus Symphomyrtus is particularly tolerant of stress, including excess Mn. The results from this paper provide the first comprehensive combination of growth responses, critical external concentrations, critical tissue concentrations and plant toxicity symptoms for three important Australian genera, viz., Eucalyptus, Acacia and Melaleuca, for use in the management of Mn toxic sites.

The game to play: expanding the co-opetition proposal through the strategic games matrix

Purpose - Using Brandenburger and Nalebuff`s 1995 co-opetition model as a reference, the purpose of this paper is to seek to develop a tool that, based on the tenets of classical game theory, would enable scholars and managers to identify which games may be played in response to the different conflict of interest situations faced by companies in their business environments. Design/methodology/approach - The literature on game theory and business strategy are reviewed and a conceptual model, the strategic games matrix (SGM), is developed. Two novel games are described and modeled. Findings - The co-opetition model is not sufficient to realistically represent most of the conflict of interest situations faced by companies. It seeks to address this problem through development of the SGM, which expands upon Brandenburger and Nalebuff`s model by providing a broader perspective, through incorporation of an additional dimension (power ratio between players) and three novel, respectively, (rival, individualistic, and associative). Practical implications - This proposed model, based on the concepts of game theory, should be used to train decision- and policy-makers to better understand, interpret and formulate conflict management strategies. Originality/value - A practical and original tool to use game models in conflict of interest situations is generated. Basic classical games, such as Nash, Stackelberg, Pareto, and Minimax, are mapped on the SGM to suggest in which situations they Could be useful. Two innovative games are described to fit four different types of conflict situations that so far have no corresponding game in the literature. A test application of the SGM to a classic Intel Corporation strategic management case, in the complex personal computer industry, shows that the proposed method is able to describe, to interpret, to analyze, and to prescribe optimal competitive and/or cooperative strategies for each conflict of interest situation.

Is your vision consistent? A method for checking, based on scenario concepts

Common sense tells us that the future is an essential element in any strategy. In addition, there is a good deal of literature on scenario planning, which is an important tool in considering the future in terms of strategy. However, in many organizations there is serious resistance to the development of scenarios, and they are not broadly implemented by companies. But even organizations that do not rely heavily on the development of scenarios do, in fact, construct visions to guide their strategies. But it might be asked, what happens when this vision is not consistent with the future? To address this problem, the present article proposes a method for checking the content and consistency of an organization`s vision of the future, no matter how it was conceived. The proposed method is grounded on theoretical concepts from the field of future studies, which are described in this article. This study was motivated by the search for developing new ways of improving and using scenario techniques as a method for making strategic decisions. The method was then tested on a company in the field of information technology in order to check its operational feasibility. The test showed that the proposed method is, in fact, operationally feasible and was capable of analyzing the vision of the company being studied, indicating both its shortcomings and points of inconsistency. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.