Examining moderators of the hindsight bias in the context of civil legal decision -making: Counterfactuals, causal proximity, and self -referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. ^ In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. ^ Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.^

Why Most Biomedical Findings Echoed by Newspapers Turn Out to be False: The Case of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

Context: Because positive biomedical observations are more often published than those reporting no effect, initial observations are often refuted or attenuated by subsequent studies. Objective: To determine whether newspapers preferentially report on initial findings and whether they also report on subsequent studies. Methods: We focused on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Using Factiva and PubMed databases, we identified 47 scientific publications on ADHD published in the 1990s and soon echoed by 347 newspapers articles. We selected the ten most echoed publications and collected all their relevant subsequent studies until 2011. We checked whether findings reported in each ‘‘top 10’’ publication were consistent with previous and subsequent observations. We also compared the newspaper coverage of the ‘‘top 10’’ publications to that of their related scientific studies. Results: Seven of the ‘‘top 10’’ publications were initial studies and the conclusions in six of them were either refuted or strongly attenuated subsequently. The seventh was not confirmed or refuted, but its main conclusion appears unlikely. Among the three ‘‘top 10’’ that were not initial studies, two were confirmed subsequently and the third was attenuated. The newspaper coverage of the ‘‘top 10’’ publications (223 articles) was much larger than that of the 67 related studies (57 articles). Moreover, only one of the latter newspaper articles reported that the corresponding ‘‘top 10’’ finding had been attenuated. The average impact factor of the scientific journals publishing studies echoed by newspapers (17.1 n = 56) was higher (p,0.0001) than that corresponding to related publications that were not echoed (6.4 n = 56). Conclusion: Because newspapers preferentially echo initial ADHD findings appearing in prominent journals, they report on uncertain findings that are often refuted or attenuated by subsequent studies. If this media reporting bias generalizes to health sciences, it represents a major cause of distortion in health science communication.

Confirmation bias in witness interviewing: Can interviewers ignore their preconceptions?

Basic research on expectancy effects suggests that investigative interviewers with pre-conceived notions about a crime may negatively influence the interview process in meaningful ways, yet many interviewing protocols recommend that interviewers review all available information prior to conducting their interviews. Previous research suggests that interviewers with no pre-interview knowledge elicit more detailed and accurate accounts than their informed counterparts (Cantlon, et al., 1996; Rivard et al., under review). The current study investigated whether (a) the benefit of blind versus informed interviewing is moderated by cautionary interviewer instructions to avoid suggestive questions and (b) whether any possible effects of pre-interview information extend beyond the immediate context of the forensic interview. ^ Paired participants (N = 584) were assigned randomly either to the role of interviewer or witness. Witnesses viewed a mock crime video and were interviewed one week later by an interviewer who received either correct, incorrect, or no information about the crime event. Half of the interviewers were assigned randomly to receive additional instructions to avoid suggestive questions. All participants returned 1 week after the interview to recall the crime video (for the witness) or the information recalled by the witness during the interview (for the interviewer). All interviews and delayed recall measures were scored for the quantity and accuracy of information reported. ^ Results replicate earlier findings that blind interviewers elicit more information from witnesses, without a decrease in accuracy rate. However instructions to avoid suggestive questions did not moderate the effect of blind versus informed interviewing on witness recall during the interview. Results further demonstrate that the effects of blind versus non-blind interviewing may extend beyond the immediate context of the interview to a later recall attempt. With instructions to avoid suggestive questions, witnesses of blind interviewers were more accurate than witnesses of incorrectly informed interviewers when recalling the event 1 week later. In addition, blind interviewers had more accurate memories for the witnesses' account of the event during the interview compared to non-blind interviewers.^

Public perception of carbon capture and storage in relation to hydraulic fracturing: content analyses, survey results, and policy proposals

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can contribute significantly to addressing the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions problem. Despite widespread political support, CCS remains unknown to the general public. Public perception researchers have found that, when asked, the public is relatively unfamiliar with CCS yet many individuals voice specific safety concerns regarding the technology. We believe this leads many stakeholders conflate CCS with the better-known and more visible technology hydraulic fracturing (fracking). We support this with content analysis of media coverage, web analytics, and public lobbying records. Furthermore, we present results from a survey of United States residents. This first-of-its-kind survey assessed participants’ knowledge, opinions and support of CCS and fracking technologies. The survey showed that participants had more knowledge of fracking than CCS, and that knowledge of fracking made participants less willing to support CCS projects. Additionally, it showed that participants viewed the two technologies as having similar risks and similar risk intensities. In the CCS stakeholder literature, judgment and decision-making (JDM) frameworks are noticeably absent, and public perception is not discussed using any cognitive biases as a way of understanding or explaining irrational decisions, yet these survey results show evidence of both anchoring bias and the ambiguity effect. Public acceptance of CCS is essential for a national low-carbon future plan. In conclusion, we propose changes in communications and incentives as programs to increase support of CCS.

Extended Coverage for Public Safety and Critical Communications Using Multi-hop and D2D Communications

In this thesis, we proposed the use of device-to-device (D2D) communications for extending the coverage area of active base stations, for public safety communications with partial coverage. A 3GPP standard compliant D2D system level simulator is developed for HetNets and public safety scenarios and used to evaluate the performance of D2D discovery and communications underlying cellular networks. For D2D discovery, the benefits of time-domain inter-cell interference coordi- nation (ICIC) approaches by using almost blank subframes were evaluated. Also, the use of multi-hop is proposed to improve, even further, the performance of the D2D discovery process. Finally, the possibility of using multi-hop D2D communications for extending the coverage area of active base stations was evaluated. Improvements in energy and spectral efficiency, when compared with the case of direct UE-eNB communi- cations, were demonstrated. Moreover, UE power control techniques were applied to reduce the effects of interference from neighboring D2D links.

Estimation and Prediction of Average Vehicle Occupancies using Traffic Accident Records

As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver¡¯s age, and driver¡¯s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.

Examining Moderators of the Hindsight Bias in the Context of Civil Legal Decision-Making: Counterfactuals, Causal Proximity, and Self-Referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.

The Effects of Attention Bias Modification Training on Cognitive Biases Perceived Threats in Children with Anxiety

It has been found in research that children and adults with anxiety have a bias toward interpreting ambiguous situations as threatening. This bias is thought to consequently maintain many symptoms of anxiety. An emergent computer treatment system called Attention Bias Modification Training (ABMT) has been used to try to reduce this bias. It is essential to understand whether this bias can be reduced with ABMT because of its feasibility and cost effective nature of treatment. In the current study, interpretation bias is measured using the Children's Opinions of Everyday Life Events (COELE). The ABMT treatment is given to children once a week for an hour and their answers to the COELE are recorded before and after treatment. The recorded procedures are transcribed by undergraduate students working at the Child Anxiety and Phobia lab, and then scored. Each of the situations of the COELE are rated 0 being neutral or 1 threatening interpretation of the situation. The hypothesis is that ABMT will reduce the negative interpretation bias in children over the course of 4 weeks of treatment. The study is still in the collection and transcription of data phase, and will expect to have analytical conclusions in the start of spring 2015.

Universalização do acesso à saúde e regulação dos planos privados de assistência à saúde: a atuação regulatória da ANS como instrumento de harmonia contratual e viabilização do papel suplementar da iniciativa privada na efetivação do direito social à saúde

While essential to human nature, health and life have been protected since ancient times by various areas of knowledge, particularly by the Law, given its dynamics within the regulation of social interactions. In Brazil, health has been granted major importance by the Federal Constitution of 1988, which, disrupting the dictatorial authoritarianism, inaugurating a Social State and focusing on the values of freedom and human dignity, raises health to the condition of a social right, marked predominantly by an obligational bias directed, primarily, to the State, through the enforcement of public policies. Although, given the limitation of the State action to the reserve for contingencies, it turns clear that an universalizing access to public health is impossible, seen that the high cost of medical provisions hinders the State to meet all the health needs of the rightholders. As a result of the inefficiency of the State, the effort of the Constituent Assembly of 1988 in creating a hybrid health system becomes nuclear, which, marked by the possibility of exploration of healthcare by the private initiative, assigns to the private enterprise a key role in supplementing the public health system, especially through the offer of health insurance plans. At this point, however, it becomes clear that health provisions rendered by the private agents are not unlimited, which involves discussions about services and procedures that should be excluded from the contractual coverage, for purposes of sectoral balance, situation which draws the indispensability of deliberations between Fundamental Rights on one hand, related to the protection of health and life, and contractual principles on the other hand, connected to the primacy of private autonomy. At this point, the importance of the regulation undertaken by the ANS, Brazilian National Health Agency, appears primordial, which, by means of its seized broad functions, considerable autonomy and technical discretion, has conditions to implement an effective control towards the harmonization of the regulatory triangle, the stability and development of the supplementary health system and, consequently, towards the universalization of the right to health, within constitutional contours. According to this, the present essay, resorting to a broad legislative, doctrinal and jurisprudential study, concludes that economic regulation over the private healthcare sector, when legitimately undertaken, provides progress and stability to the intervening segment and, besides, turns healthcare universalization feasible, in a way that it can not be replaced efficiently by any other State function.

Table 1 Core site, fractional abundance of individual isoprenoid GDGTs and TEX86 values

TEXL86 and TEXH86 are organic palaeothermometers based on the lipids of Group 1 Crenarchaeota, recently proposed as a modified version of the original TEX86 index, but with significantly improved geographical coverage. Since few data from the global core top calibration are from the Pacific, this study was carried out to assess whether the global core top calibration is regionally biased or not. The result of principal components analysis of the fractional abundance of GDGTs, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the comparison of the residuals of TEXH 86 derived sea surface temperature (SST) estimates of the Pacific subset with that of the global data set suggest that the Pacific subset has a similar TEXH 86-SST relationship with the global data set. However, the regression line through the Pacific data and an ANOVA on the residuals of TEXL 86 derived SST estimates suggest otherwise. The contradictory findings are likely to stem from the large scatter in the Pacific TEXL 86 values in the mid temperature range. While regionality does not seem to exert a strong bias on TEXL 86 and TEXH 86 calibration, it appears that there is a strong need to resolve the large scatter in the global data set, especially in the mid and high latitudes, in order to improve the calibration for a better SST estimation.

Single Events in a COTS Soft-Error Free SRAM at Low Bias Voltage Induced by 15-MeV Neutrons

This paper presents an experimental study of the sensitivity to 15-MeV neutrons of Advanced Low Power SRAMs (A-LPSRAM) at low bias voltage little above the threshold value that allows the retention of data. This family of memories is characterized by a 3D structure to minimize the area penalty and to cope with latchups, as well as by the presence of integrated capacitors to hinder the occurrence of single event upsets. In low voltage static tests, classical single event upsets were a minor source of errors, but other unexpected phenomena such as clusters of bitflips and hard errors turned out to be the origin of hundreds of bitflips. Besides, errors were not observed in dynamic tests at nominal voltage. This behavior is clearly different than that of standard bulk CMOS SRAMs, where thousands of errors have been reported.

Shifts of the psychometric function: distinguishing bias from perceptual effects.

Morgan, Dillenburger, Raphael, and Solomon have shown that observers can use different response strategies when unsure of their answer, and, thus, they can voluntarily shift the location of the psychometric function estimated with the method of single stimuli (MSS; sometimes also referred to as the single-interval, two-alternative method). They wondered whether MSS could distinguish response bias from a true perceptual effect that would also shift the location of the psychometric function. We demonstrate theoretically that the inability to distinguish response bias from perceptual effects is an inherent shortcoming of MSS, although a three-response format including also an "undecided" response option may solve the problem under restrictive assumptions whose validity cannot be tested with MSS data. We also show that a proper two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) task with the three-response format is free of all these problems so that bias and perceptual effects can easily be separated out. The use of a three-response 2AFC format is essential to eliminate a confound (response bias) in studies of perceptual effects and, hence, to eliminate a threat to the internal validity of research in this area.

Genome-wide association of multiple complex traits in outbred mice by ultra low-coverage sequencing

We thank the High-Throughput Genomics Group at the Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics and the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute for the generation of the sequencing data. This work was funded by Wellcome Trust grant 090532/Z/09/Z (J.F.). Primary phenotyping of the mice was supported by the Mary Lyon Centre and Mammalian Genetics Unit (Medical Research Council, UK Hub grant G0900747 91070 and Medical Research Council, UK grant MC U142684172). D.A.B acknowledges support from NIH R01AR056280. The sleep work was supported by the state of Vaud (Switzerland) and the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF 14694 and 136201 to P.F.). The ECG work was supported by the Netherlands CardioVascular Research Initiative (Dutch Heart Foundation, Dutch Federation of University Medical Centres, the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, and the Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences) PREDICT project, InterUniversity Cardiology Institute of the Netherlands (ICIN; 061.02; C.A.R., C.R.B). Na Cai is supported by the Agency of Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) Graduate Academy. The authors wish to acknowledge excellent technical assistance from: Ayako Kurioka, Leo Swadling, Catherine de Lara, James Ussher, Rachel Townsend, Sima Lionikaite, Ausra S. Lionikiene, Rianne Wolswinkel and Inge van der Made. We would like to thank Thomas M Keane and Anthony G Doran for their help in annotating variants and adding the FVB/NJ strain to the Mouse Genomes Project.

Role of the plasma-electrode bias and the transverse magnetic field upon H- ion extraction in the negative ion source

Non peer reviewed