965 resultados para Cenários
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Landscape is dynamic, having complex nature, with tangible and intangible dimensions, presenting a continuous evolution process. The aim of this research were based on the identification and classification of landscapes in units and subunits, from the ownership by individuals; the development of a methodology to assist in the planning and management, conciliating conservation of natural areas with anthropic activities; and, from the information gathered, evaluate the different social groups aiming to design a landscape from the sustainable development perspective; thus better understanding both cultural and forest fragmentation processes, in the city of Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais. The research analyzed the current landscape and its historical evolution, distinguishing between material and immaterial dimensions. Information was raised from field trips, soil types, relief, slope, drainage, conservation units, administrative zoning, urban areas, natural resources, economy, tax raising, transport and building infrastructure, satellite images, types of management applied to the preservation or conservation of forests and fields, and semi-structured interviews with the various actors that modify and transform the territory, thus making a balance between the built landscape and the demands of the society and ecosystems. Results were composed by a map of land use in 2011; a map of landscape units and their subunits, with their appropriate definitions; a map with five levels of activities intensity, with their respective descriptions; and raising barriers to improving the welfare of the actors and the integrity of ecosystems. The number of generated ecosystem services are difficult to measure, but its benefits are useful for everyone. The physical changes are a reflection of the economy, which caused environmental impacts, mainly related to mining activities, tourism, agriculture and conservation of natural areas, all requiring ideally a shared management. In this sense, the landscape needs a management to create sustainable alternatives to anthropic activities. The dynamics of the landscape has been shaped by a slow evolution, set by mining activities due to the high financial revenues, there were areas of revegetation after clearcuts in the past, and now tourism lacks structure. The city has great potential for development projects with payments for environmental services, however, gaps for shared management exists.
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The aim of the study was to develop a system of growth and yield models for thinned stands of Eucalyptus spp.; and to assess the behavior of the growth in scenarios with 10% decrease or increase in rainfall. The probability distribution functions Weibull 2 and 3 parameters and Johnson SB for different methods were fitted. Correlation between the fitted parameters with age was evaluated. Dominant height growth behavior was evaluated to check if thinned stand changes its growth when compared to a non-thinned stands. The stand variables dominant height and basal area were projected and simultaneously predicted and projected, respectively. Individual tree equations were fitted, which were fitted as functions of stand level variables in order to decrease the error propagation. R software was used to fit all the proposed models and consequently all the fitted models were evaluated by their parameters significance (F-test) and graphs of predicted values in relation to the observed values around the 1:1 line. Thus, the prognosis system was made by two ways, first one using the full data set, and for the second one the dataset was restricted at age 7.5. Increase and decrease in 20% of rainfall were assessed by updating the site index function. Method of moments was the most precise to describe the diameter distribution for every age in eucalyptus stands for Johnson SB and Weibull 2 parameters pdfs. When observed for each pdf the correlation for their fitted parameters with age, we noticed that shape parameters for a thinned stand were no longer correlated with age, differently of non-thinned stands. Thus, thinning effect was accounted in the basal area prediction and projection modeling. This result emphasized the necessity of applying the Parameter Recovery method in order to assess differences and capture the right pattern for thinned and non-thinned stands in the future. Dominant height was not influenced by thinning intensity. Therefore the fitted Chapman-Richards model did not account for a stand being thinned or not. All the fitted equations behaved with good precision, no matter using full or precocious dataset. The prognosis system using full and/or precocious date set was evaluated for when using Parameter Recovery method for Sb and Weibull pdfs, and by then, graphical analysis and precision statistics showed appropriated results. Finally, the increase or decrease in rainfall regime were observed for eucalyptus stand yields and we may notice how important is to observe this effect, since the growth pattern is strictly affected by water.
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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Pós-graduação em Ciência da Computação - IBILCE
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Pós-graduação em Televisão Digital: Informação e Conhecimento - FAAC
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)