Estimation of jump-diffusion processes via empirical characteristic functions

Preface The starting point for this work and eventually the subject of the whole thesis was the question: how to estimate parameters of the affine stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. These models are very important for contingent claim pricing. Their major advantage, availability T of analytical solutions for characteristic functions, made them the models of choice for many theoretical constructions and practical applications. At the same time, estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models is not a straightforward task. The problem is coming from the variance process, which is non-observable. There are several estimation methodologies that deal with estimation problems of latent variables. One appeared to be particularly interesting. It proposes the estimator that in contrast to the other methods requires neither discretization nor simulation of the process: the Continuous Empirical Characteristic function estimator (EGF) based on the unconditional characteristic function. However, the procedure was derived only for the stochastic volatility models without jumps. Thus, it has become the subject of my research. This thesis consists of three parts. Each one is written as independent and self contained article. At the same time, questions that are answered by the second and third parts of this Work arise naturally from the issues investigated and results obtained in the first one. The first chapter is the theoretical foundation of the thesis. It proposes an estimation procedure for the stochastic volatility models with jumps both in the asset price and variance processes. The estimation procedure is based on the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic process. The major analytical result of this part as well as of the whole thesis is the closed form expression for the joint unconditional characteristic function for the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models. The empirical part of the chapter suggests that besides a stochastic volatility, jumps both in the mean and the volatility equation are relevant for modelling returns of the S&P500 index, which has been chosen as a general representative of the stock asset class. Hence, the next question is: what jump process to use to model returns of the S&P500. The decision about the jump process in the framework of the affine jump- diffusion models boils down to defining the intensity of the compound Poisson process, a constant or some function of state variables, and to choosing the distribution of the jump size. While the jump in the variance process is usually assumed to be exponential, there are at least three distributions of the jump size which are currently used for the asset log-prices: normal, exponential and double exponential. The second part of this thesis shows that normal jumps in the asset log-returns should be used if we are to model S&P500 index by a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model. This is a surprising result. Exponential distribution has fatter tails and for this reason either exponential or double exponential jump size was expected to provide the best it of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models to the data. The idea of testing the efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator on the simulated data has already appeared when the first estimation results of the first chapter were obtained. In the absence of a benchmark or any ground for comparison it is unreasonable to be sure that our parameter estimates and the true parameters of the models coincide. The conclusion of the second chapter provides one more reason to do that kind of test. Thus, the third part of this thesis concentrates on the estimation of parameters of stochastic volatility jump- diffusion models on the basis of the asset price time-series simulated from various "true" parameter sets. The goal is to show that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint unconditional characteristic function is capable of finding the true parameters. And, the third chapter proves that our estimator indeed has the ability to do so. Once it is clear that the Continuous ECF estimator based on the unconditional characteristic function is working, the next question does not wait to appear. The question is whether the computation effort can be reduced without affecting the efficiency of the estimator, or whether the efficiency of the estimator can be improved without dramatically increasing the computational burden. The efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator depends on the number of dimensions of the joint unconditional characteristic function which is used for its construction. Theoretically, the more dimensions there are, the more efficient is the estimation procedure. In practice, however, this relationship is not so straightforward due to the increasing computational difficulties. The second chapter, for example, in addition to the choice of the jump process, discusses the possibility of using the marginal, i.e. one-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function in the estimation instead of the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function. As result, the preference for one or the other depends on the model to be estimated. Thus, the computational effort can be reduced in some cases without affecting the efficiency of the estimator. The improvement of the estimator s efficiency by increasing its dimensionality faces more difficulties. The third chapter of this thesis, in addition to what was discussed above, compares the performance of the estimators with bi- and three-dimensional unconditional characteristic functions on the simulated data. It shows that the theoretical efficiency of the Continuous ECF estimator based on the three-dimensional unconditional characteristic function is not attainable in practice, at least for the moment, due to the limitations on the computer power and optimization toolboxes available to the general public. Thus, the Continuous ECF estimator based on the joint, bi-dimensional, unconditional characteristic function has all the reasons to exist and to be used for the estimation of parameters of the stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models.

Maturation of lymph node fibroblastic reticular cells from myofibroblastic precursors is critical for antiviral immunity.

The stromal scaffold of the lymph node (LN) paracortex is built by fibroblastic reticular cells (FRCs). Conditional ablation of lymphotoxin-β receptor (LTβR) expression in LN FRCs and their mesenchymal progenitors in developing LNs revealed that LTβR-signaling in these cells was not essential for the formation of LNs. Although T cell zone reticular cells had lost podoplanin expression, they still formed a functional conduit system and showed enhanced expression of myofibroblastic markers. However, essential immune functions of FRCs, including homeostatic chemokine and interleukin-7 expression, were impaired. These changes in T cell zone reticular cell function were associated with increased susceptibility to viral infection. Thus, myofibroblasic FRC precursors are able to generate the basic T cell zone infrastructure, whereas LTβR-dependent maturation of FRCs guarantees full immunocompetence and hence optimal LN function during infection.

Annual Report Of the State Geologist, March 2012

What we do: Since 1892, the Iowa Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) has provided earth, water, and mapping science to all Iowans. We collect and interpret information on subsurface geologic conditions, groundwater and surface water quantity and quality, and the natural and built features of our landscape. This information is critical for: Predicting the future availability of economic water supplies and mineral resources. Assuring proper function of waste disposal facilities. Delineation of geologic hazards that may jeopardize property and public safety. Assessing trends and providing protection of water quality and soil resources. Applied technical assistance for economic development and environmental stewardship. Our goal: Providing the tools for good decision making to assure the long-term vitality of Iowa’s communities, businesses, and quality of life. Information and technical assistance are provided through web-based databases, comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, predictive groundwater models, and watershed assessments and improvement grants. The key service we provide is direct assistance from our technical staff, working with Iowans to overcome real-world challenges. This report describes the basic functions of IGWS program areas and highlights major activities and accomplishments during calendar year 2011. More information on IGWS is available at http://www.igsb.uiowa.edu/.

On the configuration of Herman rings of meromorphic functions

We prove some results concerning the possible configuration s of Herman rings for transcendental meromorphic functions. We show that one pole is enough to obtain cycles of Herman rings of arbitrary period a nd give a sufficient condition for a configuration to be realizable.

Wireless E911 Emergency Communications Fund Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Division of the Iowa Department of Public Defense independent auditor's reports, basic financial statements and supplementary information, June 30, 2011.

Audit report on the Wireless E911 Emergency Communications Fund of the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Division of the Iowa Department of Public Defense for the year ended June 30, 2011

The circadian PAR-domain basic leucine zipper transcription factors DBP, TEF, and HLF modulate basal and inducible xenobiotic detoxification.

The PAR-domain basic leucine zipper (PAR bZip) transcription factors DBP, TEF, and HLF accumulate in a highly circadian manner in several peripheral tissues, including liver and kidney. Mice devoid of all three of these proteins are born at expected Mendelian ratios, but are epilepsy prone, age at an accelerated rate, and die prematurely. In the hope of identifying PAR bZip target genes whose altered expression might contribute to the high morbidity and mortality of PAR bZip triple knockout mice, we compared the liver and kidney transcriptomes of these animals to those of wild-type or heterozygous mutant mice. These experiments revealed that PAR bZip proteins control the expression of many enzymes and regulators involved in detoxification and drug metabolism, such as cytochrome P450 enzymes, carboxylesterases, and constitutive androstane receptor (CAR). Indeed, PAR bZip triple knockout mice are hypersensitive to xenobiotic compounds, and the deficiency in detoxification may contribute to their early aging.

Hierarchy of interactive functions in father-mother-baby three-way games

In developmental research, the family has mainly been studied through dyadic interaction. Three-way interactions have received less attention, partly because of their complexity. This difficulty may be overcome by distinguishing between four hierarchically embedded functions in three-way interactions: (1) participation (inclusion of all participants), (2) organization (partners keeping to their roles), (3) focalization (sharing a common focus) and (4) affective contact (being in tune). We document this hierarchical model on a sample of 80 families observed in the Lausanne Trilogue Play situation across four different sites. Hierarchy between functions was demonstrated by means of Guttman scalability coefficient. Given the importance of the child's development in a threesome, the pertinence of this model for family assessment is discussed.

Diffusion of passive scalars under stochastic convection

The diffusion of passive scalars convected by turbulent flows is addressed here. A practical procedure to obtain stochastic velocity fields with well¿defined energy spectrum functions is also presented. Analytical results are derived, based on the use of stochastic differential equations, where the basic hypothesis involved refers to a rapidly decaying turbulence. These predictions are favorable compared with direct computer simulations of stochastic differential equations containing multiplicative space¿time correlated noise.

Measures of ionicity of alkaline-earth oxides from the analysis of ab initio cluster wave functions

We present an analysis of the M-O chemical bonding in the binary oxides MgO, CaO, SrO, BaO, and Al2O3 based on ab initio wave functions. The model used to represent the local environment of a metal cation in the bulk oxide is an MO6 cluster which also includes the effect of the lattice Madelung potential. The analysis of the wave functions for these clusters leads to the conclusion that all the alkaline-earth oxides must be regarded as highly ionic oxides; however, the ionic character of the oxides decreases as one goes from MgO, almost perfectly ionic, to BaO. In Al2O3 the ionic character is further reduced; however, even in this case, the departure from the ideal, fully ionic, model of Al3+ is not exceptionally large. These conclusions are based on three measures, a decomposition of the Mq+-Oq- interaction energy, the number of electrons associated to the oxygen ions as obtained from a projection operator technique, and the analysis of the cation core-level binding energies. The increasing covalent character along the series MgO, CaO, SrO, and BaO is discussed in view of the existing theoretical models and experimental data.

Natural killer cell genes and functions after kidney transplantation

Natural Killer (NK) cells are of special interest in solid organ transplantation (SOT) because classical immunosuppressive drugs could enhance NK cells activity.We studied NK cells after kidney transplantation in three different situations. First, we analysed the peripheral repertoire reconstitution and function of NK cells after a polyclonal rabbit anti-thymocytes globulin (rATG) induction therapy, in 20 patients transplanted with living donor and with a low immunological risk. Second, we analysed the influence of KIR genes on the risk of CMV primo-infection or reactivation in 224 transplanted patients during the first year. Finally, we studied the risk of rejection and graft function during the first 5 years according to the KIR genes. Our study demonstrates that after an intial drop, NK cell reconstitution is fast with a ratio of CD56+/CD3− cells versus CD3+ cells that remains identical. The fraction of NK cells expressing the inhibitory receptor NKG2A significantly increases and the activating receptor NKG2D decreases after transplantation to retrieve the pretransplantation value after one year. The secretion of INF-f × and the cytotoxicity is maintained over time after transplantation. Then, we demonstrated that the presence of 2 KIR missing ligands and a large number of activating KIR gene protected against CMV primo-infection or reactivation during the first year post transplantation. Finally, the KIR genes and their HLA ligands do not influence the long term graft function after univariate and multivariate analysis. Our data suggest that despite the modification of the receptor repertoire, NK cell activity is preserved. NK cells are an important player of the immune response in the first year after transplantation mainly thanks to their anti-infectious activity.

Biological activity of ectodysplasin A is conditioned by its collagen and heparan sulfate proteoglycan-binding domains.

Mutations in the TNF family ligand EDA1 cause X-linked hypohidrotic ectodermal dysplasia (XLHED), a condition characterized by defective development of skin appendages. The EDA1 protein displays a proteolytic processing site responsible for its conversion to a soluble form, a collagen domain, and a trimeric TNF homology domain (THD) that binds the receptor EDAR. In-frame deletions in the collagen domain reduced the thermal stability of EDA1. Removal of the collagen domain decreased its activity about 100-fold, as measured with natural and engineered EDA1-responsive cell lines. The collagen domain could be functionally replaced by multimerization domains or by cross-linking antibodies, suggesting that it functions as an oligomerization unit. Surprisingly, mature soluble EDA1 containing the collagen domain was poorly active when administered in newborn, EDA-deficient (Tabby) mice. This was due to a short stretch of basic amino acids located at the N terminus of the collagen domain that confers EDA1 with proteoglycan binding ability. In contrast to wild-type EDA1, EDA1 with mutations in this basic sequence was a potent inducer of tail hair development in vivo. Thus, the collagen domain activates EDA1 by multimerization, whereas the proteoglycan-binding domain may restrict the distribution of endogeneous EDA1 in vivo.

Characterization of surface functional groups present on laboratory-generated and ambient aerosol particles by means of heterogeneous titration reactions

A Knudsen flow reactor has been used to quantify surface functional groups on aerosols collected in the field. This technique is based on a heterogeneous titration reaction between a probe gas and a specific functional group on the particle surface. In the first part of this work, the reactivity of different probe gases on laboratory-generated aerosols (limonene SOA, Pb(NO3)2, Cd(NO3)2) and diesel reference soot (SRM 2975) has been studied. Five probe gases have been selected for the quantitative determination of important functional groups: N(CH3)3 (for the titration of acidic sites), NH2OH (for carbonyl functions), CF3COOH and HCl (for basic sites of different strength), and O3 (for oxidizable groups). The second part describes a field campaign that has been undertaken in several bus depots in Switzerland, where ambient fine and ultrafine particles were collected on suitable filters and quantitatively investigated using the Knudsen flow reactor. Results point to important differences in the surface reactivity of ambient particles, depending on the sampling site and season. The particle surface appears to be multi-functional, with the simultaneous presence of antagonistic functional groups which do not undergo internal chemical reactions, such as acid-base neutralization. Results also indicate that the surface of ambient particles was characterized by a high density of carbonyl functions (reactivity towards NH2OH probe in the range 0.26-6 formal molecular monolayers) and a low density of acidic sites (reactivity towards N(CH3)3 probe in the range 0.01-0.20 formal molecular monolayer). Kinetic parameters point to fast redox reactions (uptake coefficient ?0>10-3 for O3 probe) and slow acid-base reactions (?0<10-4 for N(CH3)3 probe) on the particle surface. [Authors]