On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Investigation of field and diffusion time dependence of the diffusion-weighted signal at ultrahigh magnetic fields.

Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in the number of high-magnetic-field MRI magnets. However, the exact effect of a high magnetic field strength (B0 ) on diffusion-weighted MR signals is not yet fully understood. The goal of this study was to investigate the influence of different high magnetic field strengths (9.4 T and 14.1 T) and diffusion times (9, 11, 13, 15, 17 and 24 ms) on the diffusion-weighted signal in rat brain white matter. At a short diffusion time (9 ms), fractional anisotropy values were found to be lower at 14.1 T than at 9.4 T, but this difference disappeared at longer diffusion times. A simple two-pool model was used to explain these findings. The model describes the white matter as a first hindered compartment (often associated with the extra-axonal space), characterized by a faster orthogonal diffusion and a lower fractional anisotropy, and a second restricted compartment (often associated with the intra-axonal space), characterized by a slower orthogonal diffusion (i.e. orthogonal to the axon direction) and a higher fractional anisotropy. Apparent T2 relaxation time measurements of the hindered and restricted pools were performed. The shortening of the pseudo-T2 value from the restricted compartment with B0 is likely to be more pronounced than the apparent T2 changes in the hindered compartment. This study suggests that the observed differences in diffusion tensor imaging parameters between the two magnetic field strengths at short diffusion time may be related to differences in the apparent T2 values between the pools. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Potential sources of biodynamically active natural products in Brazil

In contrast to China where vegatation is predominantly herbaceous, vegetation in Brazil is commonly arboreous. This fact may explain why Chinese drugs are usually acetate derived, while actual and potential natural therapeutic agents from Brazil are mostly shikimate derived. Only relatively few compounds isolated from Brazilian plants have been submitted to adequate pharmacological testing

Dissecting carotenoid from structural components of carotenoid-based coloration: a field experiment with great tits (Parus major).

Carotenoid-based yellowish to red plumage colors are widespread visual signals used in sexual and social communication. To understand their ultimate signaling functions, it is important to identify the proximate mechanism promoting variation in coloration. Carotenoid-based colors combine structural and pigmentary components, but the importance of the contribution of structural components to variation in pigment-based colors (i.e., carotenoid-based colors) has been undervalued. In a field experiment with great tits (Parus major), we combined a brood size manipulation with a simultaneous carotenoid supplementation in order to disentangle the effects of carotenoid availability and early growth condition on different components of the yellow breast feathers. By defining independent measures of feather carotenoid content (absolute carotenoid chroma) and background structure (background reflectance), we demonstrate that environmental factors experienced during the nestling period, namely, early growth conditions and carotenoid availability, contribute independently to variation in yellow plumage coloration. While early growth conditions affected the background reflectance of the plumage, the availability of carotenoids affected the absolute carotenoid chroma, the peak of maximum ultraviolet reflectance, and the overall shape, that is, chromatic information of the reflectance curves. These findings demonstrate that environment-induced variation in background structure contributes significantly to intraspecific variation in yellow carotenoid-based plumage coloration.

Innovation sources and productivity in Catalonian firms: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation - intramural and external R&D— on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalonian firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and knowledge-intensive services. JEL codes: O300, C100, O140 Keywords: Innovation sources, R&D, Productivity, Quantile Regression

Use of glass beads and CF 11 cellulose for removal of leukocytes from malaria-infected human blood in field settings

Passage of malaria infected blood through a two-layered column composed of acid-washed glass beads and CF 11 cellulose removes white cells from parasitized blood. However, because use of glass beads and CF 11 cellulose requires filtration of infected blood separately through these two resins and the addition of ADP, the procedure is time-consuming and may be inapropriate for use in the field, especially when large numbers of blood samples are to be treated. Our modification of this process yields parasitized cells free of contaminating leukocytes, and because of its operational simplicity, large numbers of blood samples can be processed. Our procedure also compares well with those using expensive commercial Sepacell resins in its ability to separate leukocytes from whole blood. As a test of usefulness in molecular biologic investigations, the parasites obtained from the blood of malaria-infected patients using the modified procedure yield genomic DNA whose single copy gene, the circumsporozite gene, efficiently amplifies by polymerase chain reaction.

Field evaluation of an exoantigen-containing Babesia vaccine in Venezuela

Bovine babesiosis is endemic in Venezuela, causing significant losses in highly susceptible imported cattle. Current immunoprphylatic methods include the less desirable use of live parasites. Inactivated vaccines derived from exoantigen-containing supernatant fluids of in vitro Babesia bovis and B. bigemina cultures have been developed and constitute a major improvement in vaccine safety, stability and ease of handling. Vaccination trials conducted under field conditions provide the final evaluation of a culture-derived B. bovis-B. bigemina vaccine. During a 5-year period, approximately 8,000 cattle were vaccinated and 16 clinical trials carried out in. 7 states of Venezuela Clinical, serologic and parasitologic data were collected monthly from 10% of the animals over a 2-year period. Data were also collected from a similar number of nonvaccinated control cattle. Analysis of results from these trials demonstrated a reduction in the incidence of clinical disease among vaccinated animals and complete protection against mortality among vaccinated and nonvaccinated cattle. Use of this inactivated vaccine offers the best combination od safety, potency and efficacy for thew immunoprophylatic control of bovine babesiosis.

Assessing the quality of alternative energy sources: Energy Return On the Investment (EROI), the metabolic pattern of societies and energy statistics

This paper presents an initial challenge to tackle the every so "tricky" points encountered when dealing with energy accounting, and thereafter illustrates how such a system of accounting can be used when assessing for the metabolic changes in societies. The paper is divided in four main sections. The first three, present a general discussion on the main issues encountered when conducting energy analyses. The last section, subsequently, combines this heuristic approach to the actual formalization of it, in quantitative terms, for the analysis of possible energy scenarios. Section one covers the broader issue of how to account for the relevant categories used when accounting for Joules of energy; emphasizing on the clear distinction between Primary Energy Sources (PES) (which are the physical exploited entities that are used to derive useable energy forms (energy carriers)) and Energy Carriers (EC) (the actual useful energy that is transmitted for the appropriate end uses within a society). Section two sheds light on the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Here, it is emphasized that, there must already be a certain amount of energy carriers available to be able to extract/exploit Primary Energy Sources to thereafter generate a net supply of energy carriers. It is pointed out that this current trend of intense energy supply has only been possible to the great use and dependence on fossil energy. Section three follows up on the discussion of EROI, indicating that a single numeric indicator such as an output/input ratio is not sufficient in assessing for the performance of energetic systems. Rather an integrated approach that incorporates (i) how big the net supply of Joules of EC can be, given an amount of extracted PES (the external constraints); (ii) how much EC needs to be invested to extract an amount of PES; and (iii) the power level that it takes for both processes to succeed, is underlined. Section four, ultimately, puts the theoretical concepts at play, assessing for how the metabolic performances of societies can be accounted for within this analytical framework.

Transmission blocking immunity as observed in a feeder system and serological reactivity to Pfs 48/45 and Pfs230 in field sera

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and human sera from gametocyte carriers were applied in the bio-assay to test for their transmission-blocking capacity. Competition ELISA's have been developed for the detection of natural transmission blocking antibodies. Approximately 55 of the sera blocking in the bio-assay gave positive results in these competition ELISA's.

Development of specific ITS markers for plant DNA identification within herbivorous insects

DNA based techniques have proved to be very useful methods to study trophic relationships 17 between pests and their natural enemies. However, most predators are best defined as omnivores, 18 and the identification of plant-specific DNA should also allow the identification of the plant 19 species the predators have been feeding on. In this study, a PCR approach based on the 20 development of specific primers was developed as a self-marking technique to detect plant DNA 21 within the gut of one heteropteran omnivorous predator (Macrolophus pygmaeus) and two 22 lepidopteran pest species (Helicoverpa armigera and Tuta absoluta). Specific tomato primers 23 were designed from the ITS 1-2 region, which allowed the amplification of a tomato DNA 24 fragment of 332 bp within the three insect species tested in all cases (100% of detection at t = 0) 25 and did not detect DNA of other plants nor of the starved insects. Plant DNA half-lives at 25ºC 26 ranged from 5.8h, to 27.7h and 28.7h within M. pygmaeus, H. armigera and T. absoluta, 27 respectively. Tomato DNA detection within field collected M. pygmaeus suggests dietary mixing 28 in this omnivorous predator and showed a higher detection of tomato DNA in females and 29 nymphs than males. This study provides a useful tool to detect and to identify plant food sources 30 of arthropods and to evaluate crop colonization from surrounding vegetation in conservation 31 biological control programs.