Late Putin. The end of growth, the end of stability. OSW POINT OF VIEW #55, 2015-10-05

Since Vladimir Putin returned to the Kremlin as President in May 2012, the Russian system of power has become increasingly authoritarian, and has evolved towards a model of extremely personalised rule that derives its legitimacy from aggressive decisions in internal and foreign policy, escalates the use of force, and interferes increasingly assertively in the spheres of politics, history, ideology or even public morals. Putin’s power now rests on charismatic legitimacy to a much greater extent than it did during his first two presidential terms; currently the President is presented not only as an effective leader, but also as the sole guarantor of Russia’s stability and integrity. After 15 years of Putin’s rule, Russia’s economic model based on revenue from energy resources has exhausted its potential, and the country has no new model that could ensure continued growth for the economy. The Putinist system of power is starting to show symptoms of agony – it has been unable to generate new development projects, and has been compensating for its ongoing degradation by escalating repression and the use of force. However, this is not equivalent to its imminent collapse.

The twilight of the oil Eldorado. How the activity of Russian oil companies on the EU market has evolved. OSW Studies 55, April 2016

The European Union has traditionally been the most important outlet for Russian oil exports. At the same time, during the period 2011-2014 a systematic decline was observed in crude oil supplies to the EU, while at the same time the export of petroleum products increased. It is now difficult to say that Russia is following a coherent oil strategy vis-a-vis the EU. The current shape of Russian activity is more the result of the business interests of individual companies, rather than the result of activities coordinated by the state. Although in the short term (up to 2020), the negative trend in crude oil exports to the EU could be halted (as confirmed by the figures for 2015), the long-term prospects for Russia's position on the EU market are pessimistic. This is because the importance of factors unfavourable to Russia is rising, such as the decrease in consumption of oil in the EU, the increased competition among exporters to the EU market, and the deterioration of the climate of Russian/EU cooperation in the context of the anti-Russian sanctions, as well as unclear prospects for the development of the upstream sector in Russia.

Desempregados de longa duração e processos de desfiliação: população dos 35 aos 55 anos, no concelho de Portalegre

A dissertação aborda o desemprego, no concelho de Portalegre, na faixa etária dos 35 aos 55 anos. O aumento do desemprego é uma realidade que tem gerado movimentos sociais, como os protestos e as greves. A proposta da dissertação foi explorar o fenómeno sob a perspectiva de Erikson e de Castel, compreendendo a trajetória profissional dos indivíduos em questão. Além disso, procurou-se perceber como as transformações no mundo do trabalho, influenciam o processo de desvinculação com a identidade profissional. A pesquisa, de caráter qualitativo, utilizou entrevistas semi-dirigidas e as histórias de vida, sendo colhidos sete depoimentos de desempregados de longa duração, provenientes deste flagelo. Da análise de conteúdo foram levantadas diferentes categorias para tratamento de dados, como a contextualização profissional, o posicionamento face à situação de desemprego e por ultimo a análise identitária. Os resultados mostram que a situação de desemprego pode efetivamente ditar traços de desfiliação na identidade dos desempregados, idênticas às verificadas na literatura utilizada. Os entrevistados recorrem frequentemente a formas de coping, usando a “focalização ativa”, centrando-se na resolução dos seus problemas, mantendo uma postura ativa, mesmo em situação de descrença, sendo a postura mais eficaz para a procura de emprego. Finalizamos esta investigação com algumas sugestões de pesquisa futuras, deixando também um projeto de intervenção psicológico, fazendo sugestões de técnicas de procura de emprego, de inserção social e de técnicas de trabalho de autoestima, de autoimagem e de autoconceito.