Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

Comblike poly(a-alkyl g glutamate)s: computer simulation studies of an intermediate thermal phase.

Monte Carlo (MC) simulations have been used to study the structure of an intermediate thermal phase of poly(R-octadecyl ç,D-glutamate). This is a comblike poly(ç-peptide) able to adopt a biphasic structure that has been described as a layered arrangement of backbone helical rods immersed in a paraffinic pool of polymethylene side chains. Simulations were performed at two different temperatures (348 and 363 K), both of them above the melting point of the paraffinic phase, using the configurational bias MC algorithm. Results indicate that layers are constituted by a side-by-side packing of 17/5 helices. The organization of the interlayer paraffinic region is described in atomistic terms by examining the torsional angles and the end-to-end distances for the octadecyl side chains. Comparison with previously reported comblike poly(â-peptide)s revealed significant differences in the organization of the alkyl side chains.

Sairaalan tarkkailuosaston hyödyt ja kustannukset

Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia Etelä-Karjalan keskussairaalaan mahdollisesti perustettavan yhdistelmätarkkailuosaston kannattavuutta määrittämällä osaston kustannukset ja hyödyt. Määritettyjen kustannusten avulla vertailtiin päivystys-potilaiden eri hoitoketjuvaihtoehtoja. Lähdeaineistona työssä käytettiin sairaalan omia materiaaleja ja tilastoja, henkilöstön haastatteluja sekä muita kirjallisuuslähteitä. Kirjallisuuden mukaan sairaalan ylikuormitus johtuu sen huonosta potilasvirtojen kulusta, jota voidaan parantaa joko toimintaa tehostamalla tai investoimalla uusiin resursseihin. Eräs vaihtoehto ylikuormituksen purkuun on tarkkailuosaston perustaminen, joka ei ole vain lisätila vaan potilasvirtojen ohjauskeino. Tehtyjen laskemien mukaan Etelä-Karjalan keskussairaalan tarkkailuosasto vaikuttaisi kannattavalta. Tarkkailuosaston kustannukset vuodessa olisivat 1 099 745 €, tuotot 1 170 108 € ja voitto 70 363 €. Osaston perustamiskustannukset olisivat 950 324 €. Hoitoketjujen potilaskohtaisen kannattavuuden mukaan päivystyspotilaiden tarkkailu ja lyhytaikainen hoito kannattaisi tehdä joko vuodeosastoilla tai tarkkailuosastolla, mutta ei tappiota tuottavalla ensiapupoliklinikalla. Tarkkailuosastosta olisi taloudellisten tekijöiden lisäksi myös muita hyötyjä ja haittoja sairaalan sidosryhmille. Sairaalan valitsemasta ylikuormituksen vähentämiskeinosta riippumatta, on sen tärkeätä aloittaa jo lähivuosina valmistautuminen väestön ikääntymisen aiheuttamaan lisääntyvään kuormitukseen.

VARIABILIDAD GENÉTICA DE PARENTALES Y POBLACIONES F1 INTER E INTRAESPECÍFICAS DE Physalis peruviana L. Y P. floridana Rydb.

RESUMENLa uchuva, Physalis peruviana, es un frutal andino de importancia para la exportación; el principal limitante de su producción en Colombia es el marchitamiento vascular ocasionado por Fusarium oxysporum. En el presente trabajo se propuso generar poblaciones F1 entre parentales contrastantes por su respuesta a éste patógeno y evaluarlas molecularmente como apoyo al conocimiento y uso de los recursos genéticos de la especie. Para ello, cuatro genotipos de P. peruviana y uno de la especie relacionada P. floridana, fueron caracterizados a nivel morfo-agronómico empleando 34 variables cualitativas y 20 cuantitativas, y a nivel molecular con 328 marcadores tipoCOSII y 154 IRGs. Dichos genotipos se utilizaron como parentales para la generación y caracterización molecular de poblaciones F1. Las variables cuantitativas permitieron diferenciar las especies P. floridana y P. peruviana así como genotipos cultivados y silvestres dentro de P. peruviana. Se encontró un 100% de viabilidad en cruces F1 intraespecíficos y un 50% en interespecíficos, siendo viables aquellos donde P. floridana fue receptor de polen. A nivel molecular no se identificaron polimorfismos dentro de P. peruviana pero sí entre P. floridana y P. Peruviana. En una población F1 de 51 individuos generada entre las especies se encontró un total de 127 alelos con un promedio de 3,18 por locus, un PIC de 0,358 y altos valores de heterocigocidad (Ho: 0,737 y He: 0,449). Los análisis de PCA y agrupamiento permitieron discriminar la población F1 en tres grupos, en su mayoría con mayor similitud al parental P. floridana. Lo anterior se reflejó en una distorsión mendeliana del 75% favorecida por la presencia de un 63,75% de alelos maternos. El estudio aporta conocimiento sobre la cruzabilidad en uchuva y la variabilidad genética de genotipos parentales y poblaciones F1.

Le Mariale lyonnais (Paris, BNF, fr. 818). Édition, traduction et étude linguistique

Le manuscrit de Paris, BNF, fr. 818, connu des francoprovençalistes pour sa collection de légendes hagiographiques en scripta lyonnaise, renferme également l'une des plus amples collections de miracles de Notre-Dame en langue vernaculaire du XIIIe siècle. À la différence des Légendes en prose, ce « Mariale » en vers (probablement dû au même auteur anonyme) a été rédigé dans une scripta 'francoprovençalisante', soit dans une langue qui se veut française, mais qui laisse transparaître un bon nombre de traits de l'idiome natal de l'auteur. Longtemps demeuré dans l'ombre des Légendes, le Mariale lyonnais restait jusqu'ici partiellement inédit, et sa langue n'avait jamais fait l'objet d'une étude exhaustive. Le présent ouvrage comble cette double lacune en proposant d'une part l'édition, la traduction et le glossaire des miracles qui restaient à faire connaître, d'autre part une étude linguistique portant sur l'ensemble du corpus et mettant en lumière la richesse des matériaux francoprovençaux offerts par ce recueil.

Do standard burn mortality formulae work on a population of severely burned children and adults?

Accurate prediction of mortality following burns is useful as an audit tool, and for providing treatment plan and resource allocation criteria. Common burn formulae (Ryan Score, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), classic and revised Baux) have not been compared with the standard Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHEII) or re-validated in a severely (≥20% total burn surface area) burned population. Furthermore, the revised Baux (R-Baux) has been externally validated thoroughly only once and the pediatric Baux (P-Baux) has yet to be. Using 522 severely burned patients, we show that burn formulae (ABSI, Baux, revised Baux) outperform APACHEII among adults (AUROC increase p<0.001 adults; p>0.5 children). The Ryan Score performs well especially among the most at-risk populations (estimated mortality [90% CI] original versus current study: 33% [26-41%] versus 30.18% [24.25-36.86%] for Ryan Score 2; 87% [78-93%] versus 66.48% [51.31-78.87%] for Ryan Score 3). The R-Baux shows accurate discrimination (AUROC 0.908 [0.869-0.947]) and is well-calibrated. However, the ABSI and P-Baux, although showing high measures of discrimination (AUROC 0.826 [0.737-0.916] and 0.848 [0.758-0.938]) in children), exceedingly overestimates mortality, indicating poor calibration. We highlight challenges in designing and employing scores that are applicable to a wide range of populations.

Reliability of maximal grip strength measurements and grip strength recovery following a stroke.

STUDY DESIGN: Clinical measurement. PURPOSE: The test-retest reliability of maximal grip strength measurements (MGSM) is examined in subjects for 12 weeks post-stroke together with maximal grip strength recovery and the maximal-grip and upper-extremity strength measurements' relationship with capacity and performance test scores. METHODS: A Jamar dynamometer and the Motricity Index (MI) were used for strength measurements. The Chedoke Arm and Hand Activity Inventory and ABILHAND questionnaire for evaluating capacities and performances. RESULTS: MGSM were reliable (Intraclass Correlation Coefficients = 0.97-0.99, Minimal Detectable Differences = 2.73-4.68 kg). Among the 34 participants, 47% did not have a measurable grip strength one week post-stroke but 50% of these recovered some strength within the first eight weeks. The MGSM and MI scores were correlated with scores of tests of capacity and performance (Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients = 0.69-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: MGSM are reliable in the first weeks after a stroke. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: N/A.

Waddlia: An emerging pathogen and a model organism to study the biology of chlamydiae.

Waddlia chondrophila is an emerging pathogen associated with abortion in cattle. In humans, a growing body of evidence supports its pathogenic role in miscarriage and in respiratory tract infection. The human pathogenicity of W. chondrophila is further supported by the presence of several virulence factors including a catalase, a functional T3SS and several adhesins. Despite this medical importance, no commercial tests are available and diagnostic of this strict intracellular bacterium mainly relies on serology, PCR and immunohistochemistry. So far, the epidemiology of W. chondrophila remains largely unexplored and zoonotic, waterborne or interhuman transmission has been considered. Apart from its pathogenic role, chlamydiologists are also interested in W. chondrophila in order to better understand biological mechanisms conserved and shared with Chlamydia spp. Indeed, W. chondrophila proved to be a useful model organism to study the pathobiology of chlamydiae thanks to its rapid replication, its large size allowing precise subcellular protein localization, as well as its growth in Dictyostelium amoebae.

Dopplerfluxometria de artérias oftálmicas e avaliação da função endotelial nas formas precoce e tardia da pré-eclâmpsia

OBJETIVO: Avaliar possíveis diferenças entre a disfunção endotelial, avaliada pela dilatação fluxo-mediada, e hiperperfusão central, avaliada por dopplerfluxometria da artéria oftálmica, entre pacientes portadoras da forma precoce e tardia da pré-eclâmpsia. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: O teste de dilatação fluxo-mediada e a dopplerfluxometria da artéria oftálmica foram obtidos de 81 gestantes, sendo 56 portadoras de pré-eclâmpsia (26 na forma precoce e 30 na forma tardia) e 25 gestantes saudáveis (grupo controle). RESULTADOS: Portadoras de pré-eclâmpsia apresentaram valores menores de dilatação fluxo-mediada quando comparadas ao grupo controle, tanto na forma precoce (7,62 ± 5,42% × 14,12 ± 6,14%; p = 0,02) como na forma tardia (5,83 ± 4,12% × 14,12 ± 6,14%; p = 0,00). Não houve diferença quando foram comparadas as duas formas (7,62 ± 5,42% × 5,83 ± 4,12%; p = 0,09). A dopplerfluxometria da artéria oftálmica apresentou-se significativamente menor nas pacientes portadoras de pré-eclâmpsia quando comparadas ao grupo controle, tanto na forma precoce (0,631 ± 0,024 × 0,737 ± 0,032; p = 0,01) como na forma tardia (0,653 ± 0,019 × 0,737 ± 0,032; p = 0,03). Não houve diferença entre as duas formas de apresentação (0,631 ± 0,024 × 0,653 ± 0,019; p = 0,12). Os resultados basicamente demonstram redução nos valores de dilatação fluxo-mediada e dopplerfluxometria da artéria oftálmica nas formas tardia e precoce da pré-eclâmpsia quando comparadas ao grupo controle, sem, contudo, diferenças significativas entre as duas formas de apresentação da doença. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados indicam a presença de disfunção endotelial e hiperperfusão central em gestantes com pré-eclâmpsia, tanto na forma precoce como na tardia.

Implicación del patrón radiológico en el pronóstico de los tumores oligodendrogliales: correlación con el perfil genético

Introducción. La codeleción 1p19q (LOH1p19q) confiere a los tumores oligodendrogliales quimiosensibilidad y un mejor pronóstico en relación con otros gliomas. La investigación dirigida a identificar características radiológicas asociadas a LOH1p19q ha despertado gran interés en los últimos años. Objetivos. Confirmar la existencia de heterogeneidad regional de los parámetros moleculares en los gliomas oligodendrogliales, valorar la asociación entre el perfil genético y determinadas características radiológicas y clínicas, y analizar el valor pronóstico de éstas. Pacientes y métodos. Se incluyeron 54 pacientes tratados según un protocolo preestablecido común. Se valoraron las secuencias T1, con/sin gadolinio, y T2 de la resonancia magnética preoperatoria a ciegas de la información molecular y clínica. El análisis de LOH se efectuó sobre muestras pareadas de ADN tumoral y genómico. Resultados. La presencia de LOH1p se halló fuertemente asociada a LOH19q (p < 0,0001). LOH1p19q resultó más frecuente en los tumores situados en el lóbulo frontal (odds ratio, OR = 5,38; intervalo de confianza del 95%, IC 95% = 1,51-19,13; p = 0,007) y sin necrosis radiológica (OR = 0,17; IC 95% = 0,03-0,80; p = 0,02). La localización frontal (riesgo relativo, RR = 4,499; IC 95% = 1,027-193,708; p = 0,046), la necrosis radiológica (RR = 0,213; IC 95% = 0,065-0,700; p = 0,011) y el grado de resección (RR = 9,231; IC 95% = 1,737-49,050; p = 0,009) resultaron factores pronósticos independientes de supervivencia global. Conclusiones. En los tumores oligodendrogliales, además del análisis histológico y el estudio genético-molecular, la valoración de determinadas características radiológicas puede resultar de gran utilidad para definir subgrupos de pacientes con pronóstico y respuesta al tratamiento similares. Los esfuerzos deben dirigirse, por tanto, hacia la utilización combinada de todos los recursos disponibles en cada centro.

Dial M for Murder: A Case of Passion Killing, Criminal Evidence and Sultanic Power in Medieval India

This paper considers the structures and applications of the criminal judicial system in the Islamic Later Middle Period as it developed in India under the sultans of Delhi (1200-1400 CE). A fundamental issue in crime and punishment is the relationship between sultanic power and religious authority. Particularly at stake in this relationship is the question of who can sanction the highest form of punishment, i.e. the death penalty (siyāsa). Contemporary historians and scholars in the study of religion investigating the relationship between sharīʿa and siyāsa to reveal the extent and limits of sultanic power show a system of governance that allowed for the delegation of authority, particularly in the area of the judiciary, from the sultan down to viziers and judges. Some scholars depict the relationship between the ʿulamāʾ and the sultan as a kind of stand off. The actual dynamics of legal jurisdiction were much more complex. This study proposes a new interpretive framework for understanding the relationship between political power and religious authority through a critical analysis of the criminal judicial system, law, and historical narrative. In particular, I consider a murder case described by Shams al-dīn Sirāj ʿAfīf in one of the most significant histories written in the later Delhi Sultanate, the Tārīkh-i Fīrūzshāhī.

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)

Sustainability of palm oil production and opportunities for Finnish technology and know-how transfer

The global demand for palm oil is growing, thus prompting an increase in the global production particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia. Such increasing demand for palm oil is due to palm oil’s relatively cheap price and versatile advantage both in edible and non-edible applications. Along with the increasing demand for palm oil, particularly for the production of biofuel, is a heated debate on its sustainability. Ecological degradation, climate change and social issues are among the main sustainability issues pressing the whole palm oil industry today. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects fulfilling the imperatives of the Kyoto Protocol are starting to gain momentum in Malaysia as reflected by the increasing registration of CDM projects in the palm oil mills. Most CDM projects in palm oil mills are on waste-to-energy, cocomposting, and methane recovery with the latter being the most common. The study on greenhouse gases (GHG) in the milling process points that biogas collection and energy utilisation has the greatest positive effect on GHG balance. On the other hand, empty fruit bunches (EFB) end-use as energy and high energy efficiency of the mill have the least effect on GHG balance of the mill. The range of direct GHG emissions from the palm oil mill is from 2.5 to 27 gCO2e/MJCPO, while the range of GHG emissions with all indirect and avoided emissions included is from -9 to 29 gCO2e/MJCPO. Comparing this GHG balance result with that of the EU RES-Directive suggests a further check on the values and emissions consideration of the latter.