An experiment on the parameter uncertainty of hydrological models with different levels of complexity in a climate change context

La possibilité d’estimer l’impact du changement climatique en cours sur le comportement hydrologique des hydro-systèmes est une nécessité pour anticiper les adaptations inévitables et nécessaires que doivent envisager nos sociétés. Dans ce contexte, ce projet doctoral présente une étude sur l’évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques futures à : (i) La non-robustesse de l’identification des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques, (ii) l’utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres équifinaux et (iii) l’utilisation de différentes structures de modèles hydrologiques. Pour quantifier l’impact de la première source d’incertitude sur les sorties des modèles, quatre sous-périodes climatiquement contrastées sont tout d’abord identifiées au sein des chroniques observées. Les modèles sont calés sur chacune de ces quatre périodes et les sorties engendrées sont analysées en calage et en validation en suivant les quatre configurations du Different Splitsample Tests (Klemeš, 1986;Wilby, 2005; Seiller et al. (2012);Refsgaard et al. (2014)). Afin d’étudier la seconde source d’incertitude liée à la structure du modèle, l’équifinalité des jeux de paramètres est ensuite prise en compte en considérant pour chaque type de calage les sorties associées à des jeux de paramètres équifinaux. Enfin, pour évaluer la troisième source d’incertitude, cinq modèles hydrologiques de différents niveaux de complexité sont appliqués (GR4J, MORDOR, HSAMI, SWAT et HYDROTEL) sur le bassin versant québécois de la rivière Au Saumon. Les trois sources d’incertitude sont évaluées à la fois dans conditions climatiques observées passées et dans les conditions climatiques futures. Les résultats montrent que, en tenant compte de la méthode d’évaluation suivie dans ce doctorat, l’utilisation de différents niveaux de complexité des modèles hydrologiques est la principale source de variabilité dans les projections de débits dans des conditions climatiques futures. Ceci est suivi par le manque de robustesse de l’identification des paramètres. Les projections hydrologiques générées par un ensemble de jeux de paramètres équifinaux sont proches de celles associées au jeu de paramètres optimal. Par conséquent, plus d’efforts devraient être investis dans l’amélioration de la robustesse des modèles pour les études d’impact sur le changement climatique, notamment en développant les structures des modèles plus appropriés et en proposant des procédures de calage qui augmentent leur robustesse. Ces travaux permettent d’apporter une réponse détaillée sur notre capacité à réaliser un diagnostic des impacts des changements climatiques sur les ressources hydriques du bassin Au Saumon et de proposer une démarche méthodologique originale d’analyse pouvant être directement appliquée ou adaptée à d’autres contextes hydro-climatiques.

New Possibilities for Geophysical Parameter Retrievals Opened by GCOM-W1 AMSR2

A new approach to retrieve sea surface wind speed (SWS) in tropical cyclones (TCs) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) data is presented. Analysis of all six AMSR2 C- and X-band channel measurements over TCs is shown to efficiently help to separate the rain contribution. Corrected measurements at 6.9 and 10.65 GHz are then used to retrieve the SWS. Spatial and temporal collocation of AMSR2 and tropical rain measurement mission (TRMM) microwave instrument (TMI) data is then further used to empirically relate TMI rain rate (RR) product to RR estimates from AMSR2 in hurricanes. SWS estimates are validated with measurements from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR). As further tested, more than 100 North Atlantic and North Pacific TCs are analyzed for the 2012–2014 period. Despite few particular cases, most SWS fields are in a very good agreement with TC center data on maximum wind speeds, radii of storm, and hurricane winds. As also compared, very high consistency between AMSR2 and L-band SMOS wind speed estimates are obtained, especially for the super typhoon Haiyan, to prove the high potential of AMSR2 measurements in TCs.

Unmet needs of young interventional cardiologists: proceedings from the 2nd summit of the European association of percutaneous cardiovascular interventions

Every year, the EAPCI Board invites presidents and representatives of the interventional working groups affiliated to EAPCI to discuss issues and strategies surrounding the goals of education and advanced healthcare practices in interventional cardiology. In 2013, the 2nd EAPCI Summit, organised by the EAPCI Board in collaboration with the NIFYI committee, was entirely dedicated to discussing the unmet needs of the young generation of interventional cardiologists. In this article, we highlight a selection of the key points and proposed actions highlighted during the summit.

Contribution to "Deliverable 4: Activity 6: Pilot Demonstrations: Pilot testing, 2nd milling campaign"

Report for Deliverable 4: Activity 6 of MEDOLICO Project - Mediterranean Cooperation in the Treatment and Valorisation of Olive Mill Wastewater, EU Programme ENPI-CBCMED I-B/2.1/090

Soft computing based parameter identification in pavements and geomechanical systems

Accurate estimation of road pavement geometry and layer material properties through the use of proper nondestructive testing and sensor technologies is essential for evaluating pavement’s structural condition and determining options for maintenance and rehabilitation. For these purposes, pavement deflection basins produced by the nondestructive Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) test data are commonly used. The nondestructive FWD test drops weights on the pavement to simulate traffic loads and measures the created pavement deflection basins. Backcalculation of pavement geometry and layer properties using FWD deflections is a difficult inverse problem, and the solution with conventional mathematical methods is often challenging due to the ill-posed nature of the problem. In this dissertation, a hybrid algorithm was developed to seek robust and fast solutions to this inverse problem. The algorithm is based on soft computing techniques, mainly Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) as well as the use of numerical analysis techniques to properly simulate the geomechanical system. A widely used pavement layered analysis program ILLI-PAVE was employed in the analyses of flexible pavements of various pavement types; including full-depth asphalt and conventional flexible pavements, were built on either lime stabilized soils or untreated subgrade. Nonlinear properties of the subgrade soil and the base course aggregate as transportation geomaterials were also considered. A computer program, Soft Computing Based System Identifier or SOFTSYS, was developed. In SOFTSYS, ANNs were used as surrogate models to provide faster solutions of the nonlinear finite element program ILLI-PAVE. The deflections obtained from FWD tests in the field were matched with the predictions obtained from the numerical simulations to develop SOFTSYS models. The solution to the inverse problem for multi-layered pavements is computationally hard to achieve and is often not feasible due to field variability and quality of the collected data. The primary difficulty in the analysis arises from the substantial increase in the degree of non-uniqueness of the mapping from the pavement layer parameters to the FWD deflections. The insensitivity of some layer properties lowered SOFTSYS model performances. Still, SOFTSYS models were shown to work effectively with the synthetic data obtained from ILLI-PAVE finite element solutions. In general, SOFTSYS solutions very closely matched the ILLI-PAVE mechanistic pavement analysis results. For SOFTSYS validation, field collected FWD data were successfully used to predict pavement layer thicknesses and layer moduli of in-service flexible pavements. Some of the very promising SOFTSYS results indicated average absolute errors on the order of 2%, 7%, and 4% for the Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) thickness estimation of full-depth asphalt pavements, full-depth pavements on lime stabilized soils and conventional flexible pavements, respectively. The field validations of SOFTSYS data also produced meaningful results. The thickness data obtained from Ground Penetrating Radar testing matched reasonably well with predictions from SOFTSYS models. The differences observed in the HMA and lime stabilized soil layer thicknesses observed were attributed to deflection data variability from FWD tests. The backcalculated asphalt concrete layer thickness results matched better in the case of full-depth asphalt flexible pavements built on lime stabilized soils compared to conventional flexible pavements. Overall, SOFTSYS was capable of producing reliable thickness estimates despite the variability of field constructed asphalt layer thicknesses.

Nspirations And Imports From Bronze Age Pontic Cultures In The Development Of Communities Living Between The Wieprz And Horyn Rivers From The 3rd/2nd To The Middle Of The 2nd Millennium BC

This publication constitutes the fruits of National Science Centre research projects (grant no 2011/01/M/HS3/02142 – 6 articles) and the National Programme for the Development of the Humanities (grant no 0108/NPH3/H12/82/2014 – 3 articles). We would like to acknowledge and at the same time express our sincere gratitude for the generosity shown by the following at the Adam Mickiewicz University in making this publication possible: the Dean of the Department of History, Institute of Pre-history and the Eastern Institute.

Late eneolithic and bronze age prologue pontic societies . Forest-steppe middle dniester and prut drainage basins in the 4th/3rd-2nd millennium bc: a history of investigations

The paper presents a historiographic context helpful in the current investigations of the cultural contacts between the societies of the east and west of Europe in the borderland of Podolia and moldova in the late Eneolithic and the prologue of the Bronze age . The focus is on the state of research (chiefly taxonomic and topogenetic) into the sequence of taxa in the age of early ‘barrow-building’, identified in the funerary rituals of societies settling the forest-steppe of the north- western Black Sea Coast in the 4th/3rd-2nd millennium BC .

ENEOLITHIC, YAMNAYA AND NOUA CULTURE CEMETERIES FROM THE FIRST HALF OF THE 3RD AND THE MIDDLE OF THE 2ND MILLENNIUM BC, POROHY, SITE 3A, YAMPIL REGION, VINNITSA OBLAST: ARCHAEOMETRIC AND CHRONOMETRIC DESCRIPTION, RITUAL AND TAXONOMIC-TOPOGENETIC IDENTIFICATION

The paper presents the results of excavations and analytical studies regarding the taxonomic classification of a funeral site associated with the societies of ‘barrow cultures’ of the north-western Black Sea Coast in the first half of the 3rd and the middle of the 2nd millennium BC. The study discusses the ceremonial centres of the Eneolithic, Yamnaya and Noua cultures.

THE MIDDLE-DNIESTER CULTURAL CONTACT AREA OF EARLY METAL AGE SOCIETIES. THE FRONTIER OF PONTIC AND BALTIC DRAINAGE BASINS IN THE 4TH/3RD-2ND MILLENNIUM BC.

The paper discusses the taxonomy and autogenesis of the cycle of early ‘barrow cultures’ developed by the local communities of the middle Dniester Area or, in a broader comparative context, the north-western Black Sea Coast, in the 4th/3rd-2nd millennium BC . The purpose of the study is to conduct an analytical and conceptual entry point to the research questions of the dniester Contact area, specifically the contacts between autochthonous ‘late Eneolithic’ communities (Yamnaya, Catacomb and Babyno cultures) and incoming communities from the Baltic basin . The discussion of these cultures continues in other papers presented in this volume of Baltic-Pontic Studies.

2nd ANNUAL REPORT JULY 1, 1964 - JUNE 30, 1965 STATE DEPARTMENT of MENTAL HEALTH Columbia, South Carolina 1965

Each year the South Carolina State Hospital Commission submits an annual report to the General Assembly that contains the agency's mission, objectives to accomplish the mission, and performance measures that show the degree to which objectives are being met.

Estudo do comportamento biomecânico de aneurismas cerebrais

Os aneurismas cerebrais são dilatações patológicas das artérias cerebrais e são conhecidos como um dos eventos cerebrovasculares mais comuns e graves. A maioria dos aneurismas cerebrais não provocam sintomas até que se tornem grandes, começando a vazar sangue ou a romperem-se. O principal objetivo deste trabalho é a caracterização do comportamento biomecânico de aneurismas, tendo em consideração diferentes parâmetros geométricos e fisiológicos, de forma a analisar o comportamento da parede de um vaso sanguíneo aquando a formação de um aneurisma. O estudo numérico foi efetuado considerando diferentes modelos constitutivos híper-elásticos, que é o caso dos vasos sanguíneos, com intuito de verificar qual o que melhor se adequa a este tipo de estudos e de analisar e calcular os deslocamentos e as deformações ocorridas no aneurisma cerebral. Os diferentes modelos constitutivos foram aproximados por uma curva de tensão/deformação que contém valores experimentais de um ensaio de tração até à rutura de uma mucosa vaginal. Foram utilizados dois módulos do software Ansys®, sendo estes o Fluent e o Static Structural. O primeiro utilizou-se determinar a pressão exercida pelo fluido na parede interior do canal, sendo este resultado exportado para o Static Structural, permitindo assim fazer o estudo estrutural do canal com aneurisma. Concluiu-se que a nível qualitativo, qualquer modelo constitutivo estudado pode ser utilizado, pois todos mostram o mesmo tipo de distribuição de deslocamentos e deformações. No entanto, os modelos mais fiáveis a nível quantitativo é o modelo de Mooney-Rivlin 5 Parameter e o Polynomial 2nd Order, pois apresentam os mesmos resultados.

A Learning Function for Parameter Reduction in Spiking Neural Networks with Radial Basis Function

Spiking neural networks - networks that encode information in the timing of spikes - are arising as a new approach in the artificial neural networks paradigm, emergent from cognitive science. One of these new models is the pulsed neural network with radial basis function, a network able to store information in the axonal propagation delay of neurons. Learning algorithms have been proposed to this model looking for mapping input pulses into output pulses. Recently, a new method was proposed to encode constant data into a temporal sequence of spikes, stimulating deeper studies in order to establish abilities and frontiers of this new approach. However, a well known problem of this kind of network is the high number of free parameters - more that 15 - to be properly configured or tuned in order to allow network convergence. This work presents for the first time a new learning function for this network training that allow the automatic configuration of one of the key network parameters: the synaptic weight decreasing factor.

Retrievals of a size parameter for phytoplankton and spectral light absorption by colored detrital matter from water-leaving radiances at SeaWiFS channels in a continental shelf region off Brazil

Many efforts are currently oriented toward extracting more information from ocean color than the chlorophyll a concentration. Among biological parameters potentially accessible from space, estimates of phytoplankton cell size and light absorption by colored detrital matter (CDM) would lead to an indirect assessment of major components of the organic carbon pool in the ocean, which would benefit oceanic carbon budget models. We present here 2 procedures to retrieve simultaneously from ocean color measurements in a limited number of bands, magnitudes, and spectral shapes for both light absorption by CDM and phytoplankton, along with a size parameter for phytoplankton. The performance of the 2 procedures was evaluated using different data sets that correspond to increasing uncertainties: ( 1) measured absorption coefficients of phytoplankton, particulate detritus, and colored dissolved organic matter ( CDOM) and measured chlorophyll a concentrations and ( 2) SeaWiFS upwelling radiance measurements and chlorophyll a concentrations estimated from global algorithms. In situ data were acquired during 3 cruises, differing by their relative proportions in CDM and phytoplankton, over a continental shelf off Brazil. No local information was introduced in either procedure, to make them more generally applicable. Over the study area, the absorption coefficient of CDM at 443 nm was retrieved from SeaWiFS radiances with a relative root mean square error (RMSE) of 33%, and phytoplankton light absorption coefficients in SeaWiFS bands ( from 412 to 510 nm) were retrieved with RMSEs between 28% and 33%. These results are comparable to or better than those obtained by 3 published models. In addition, a size parameter of phytoplankton and the spectral slope of CDM absorption were retrieved with RMSEs of 17% and 22%, respectively. If these methods are applied at a regional scale, the performances could be substantially improved by locally tuning some empirical relationships.