Relationship between load/unload response ratio and damage variable and its application

The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China

In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

中国大陆活动地块边界带强震趋势研究

已有研究表明,中国大陆活动地块边界带是我国大陆强震的主体带和集中区,因此有必要对各边界带开展强震危险性的跟踪分析。本文分别从加卸载响应比时序演化特征、基于对数正态分布的概率方法和b值变化特征3个方面对各边界带未来强震趋势进行了分析;并分别根据加卸载响应比时序演化特征、综合累积概率与条件概率、b值下降判断了各边界带未来发生强震的危险程度。最后,根据3种方法的分析结果,探讨了中国大陆未来5年发生强震的可能区域。

Relationship between load/unload response ratio and damage variable and its application

The physics-based parameter: load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed to measure the proximity of a strong earthquake, which achieved good results in earthquake prediction. As LURR can be used to describe the damage degree of the focal media qualitatively, there must be a relationship between LURR and damage variable (D) which describes damaged materials quantitatively in damage mechanics. Hence, based on damage mechanics and LURR theory, taking Weibull distribution as the probability distribution function, the relationship between LURR and D is set up and analyzed. This relationship directs LURR applied in damage analysis of materials quantitatively from being qualitative earlier, which not only provides the LURR method with a more solid basis in physics, but may also give a new approach to the damage evaluation of big scale structures and prediction of engineering catastrophic failure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China

In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

DECODE: a new method for discovering clusters of different densities in spatial data

National Key Basic Research and Development Program of China [2006CB701305]; State Key Laboratory of Resource and Environment Information System [088RA400SA]; Chinese Academy of Sciences

地震力对高架桥梁上轨道车辆的动态分析与安全性研究

The stability and derailment behavior analysis of railway vehicle system has been discussed by many papers in the past. In stability, give first place to consider hunting behavior of vehicle, therefore most of papers was only consider lateral and yaw motion, but vertical motion is the important factor in derailment behavior, and it will be quite effect in stability. We will probe the running stability and derailment behavior of railway vehicle moving on the viaduct in this paper. In this paper, we use Nadal’s formula to get the derailment quotient. In this paper, the railway vehicle is considered to be three subsystems, carbody, bogie and wheelset. There are secondary suspension systems between carbody and bogies, and primary suspension systems connecting bogies and wheelsets. A vehicle with vertical, lateral, roll, and yaw directions motion is considered to derive the mathematical equations. A vehicle with three-dimensional model has 16 degrees of freedom is used to develop the equations of train motion. In this study, results show that the track shift force and derailment factor increase with an increase of ground acceleration. But for the track shift force and derailment factor, the effects of track irregularities and train speed are very small. Key words: earthquake, railway vehicle, viaduct, derailment factor.

地球介质非线性与各向异性的地震波响应及其成像效应

The practice of geophysical prospecting shows us the complex interior earth. The studies of the complexity play an important role and practical guide for the subsurface structure. At present, the complexity of the earth mainly means lateral and vertical homogeneity, anisotropy and non-linear quality. And the anisotropy and non-linear media studies become the frontier in seismology and exploration seismology. This paper summarizes the development of complexities and presents the forward and inverse in the non-linear and anisotropic media. Firstly, the paper introduces the theory of seismic wave propagation in the non-linear and anisotropic media, the theoretical basis for simulation and inversion research. Secondly, high quality numerical simulation method with little dispersion has been developed to investigate the influence of complexity including anisotropy and non-linear multi-component seismograms. Because most real data in seismology have a single component, we developed two aspects work on anisotropic multi-component imaging. One is prestack reflection migration. The result show that distorted images are obtained if data from anisotropic media are migrated using isotropic extrapolation. Moreover, image quality will be improved greatly after considering anisotropy in subsurface layers. The other one is the we take advantage of multi-component data to inversion of the anisotropic parameters jointly seimic reflection travel time and polarization information. Based on these research works, we get the following results: 1.Combing numerical simulation, systematical studies indicate that anisotropy and non-linear seismograms characters are significant to detect cracked belts in the earth and to understand deformation field and mechanism. 2.Based on anisotropic media models, we developed an efficient prestack migration method for subsurface structure and different observation methods seismic data, which improving the imaging quality with VSP, seismograms and real data. 3.Jointly seismic inversion combining seismic anisotropic reflection traveltimes and polarizations data show that the complete wrong inversion and the following explanation will be resulted by ignoring anisotropy.

裂隙/孔隙型弹性介质中地震波场模拟与叠前逆时偏移

With the development of oil/gas seismic exploration, seismic survey for fracture/porosity type reservoir is becoming more and more important. As for China, since it has over 60% store of low porosity and low permeability oil/gas reservoir, it’s more urgent to validly describe fracture/porosity type oil/gas trap and proposing the related, developed seismic technique. To achieve mapping fracture/porosity region and its development status, it demands profound understanding of seismic wave propagation discipline in complex fractured/pored media. Meanwhile, it has profound scientific significance and applied worth to study forward modeling of fracture/porosity type media and pre-stacked reverse time migration. Especially, pre-stacked reverse-time migration is the lead edge technique in the field of seismology and seismic exploration. In this paper, the author has summarized the meaning, history and the present state of numerical simulation of seismic propagation in fractured/pored media and seismic exploration of fractured/pored reservoirs. Extensive Dilatancy Anisotropy (EDA) model is selected as media object in this work. As to forward modeling, due to local limitation of solving spatial partial derivative when using finite-difference and finite-element method, the author turns to pseudo-spectral method (PSM), which is based on the global characteristic of Fourier transform to simulate three-component elastic wave-field. Artifact boundary effect reduction and simulation algorithm stability are also discussed in the work. The author has completed successfully forward modeling coding of elastic wave-field and numerical simulation of two-dimensional and three-dimensional EDA models with different symmetric axis. Seismic dynamic and kinematical properties of EDA media are analyzed from time slices and seismic records of wave propagation. As to pre-stacked reverse-time migration for elastic wave-field in fractured/pored media, based on the successful experience in forward modeling results with PSM, the author has studied pre-stacked reverse-time depth-domain migration technique using PSM of elastic wave-field in two dimensional EDA media induced by preferred fracture/pore distribution. At the same time, different image conditions will bring up what kind of migration result is detailed in this paper. The author has worded out software for pre-stacked reverse-time depth-domain migration of elastic wave-field in EDA media. After migration processing of a series of seismic shot gathers, influences to migration from different isotropic and anisotropy models are described in the paper. In summary, following creative research achievements are obtained:  Realizing two-dimensional and three-dimensional elastic wave-field modeling for fractured/pored media and related software has been completed.  Proposed pre-stacked reverse-time depth-domain migration technique using PSM of elastic wave-field.  Through analysis of the seismic dynamic and kinematical properties of EDA media, the author made a conclusion that collection of multi-component seismic data can provide important data basis for locating and describing the fracture/pore regions and their magnitudes and the preferred directions.  Pre-stacked reverse-time depth-domain migration technique has the ability to reconstruct complex geological object with steep formations and tilt fracture distribution. Neglecting seismic anisotropy induced by the preferred fracture/pore distribution, will lead to the disastrous imaging results.

基于广义正交多项式迭积微分算子的地震波场数值模拟研究

Seismic Numerical Modeling is one of bases of the Exploratory Seismology and Academic Seismology, also is a research field in great demand. Essence of seismic numerical modeling is to assume that structure and parameters of the underground media model are known, simulate the wave-field and calculate the numerical seismic record that should be observed. Seismic numerical modeling is not only a means to know the seismic wave-field in complex inhomogeneous media, but also a test to the application effect by all kinds of methods. There are many seismic numerical modeling methods, each method has its own merits and drawbacks. During the forward modeling, the computation precision and the efficiency are two pivotal questions to evaluate the validity and superiority of the method. The target of my dissertation is to find a new method to possibly improve the computation precision and efficiency, and apply the new forward method to modeling the wave-field in the complex inhomogeneous media. Convolutional Forsyte polynomial differentiator (CFPD) approach developed in this dissertation is robust and efficient, it shares some of the advantages of the high precision of generalized orthogonal polynomial and the high speed of the short operator finite-difference. By adjusting the operator length and optimizing the operator coefficient, the method can involve whole and local information of the wave-field. One of main tasks of the dissertation is to develop a creative, generalized and high precision method. The author introduce convolutional Forsyte polynomial differentiator to calculate the spatial derivative of seismic wave equation, and apply the time staggered grid finite-difference which can better meet the high precision of the convolutional differentiator to substitute the conventional finite-difference to calculate the time derivative of seismic wave equation, then creating a new forward method to modeling the wave-field in complex inhomogeneous media. Comparing with Fourier pseudo-spectral method, Chebyshev pseudo-spectral method, staggered- grid finite difference method and finite element method, convolutional Forsyte polynomial differentiator (CFPD) method has many advantages: 1. Comparing with Fourier pseudo-spectral method. Fourier pseudo-spectral method (FPS) is a local operator, its results have Gibbs effects when the media parameters change, then arose great errors. Therefore, Fourier pseudo-spectral method can not deal with special complex and random heterogeneous media. But convolutional Forsyte polynomial differentiator method can cover global and local information. So for complex inhomogeneous media, CFPD is more efficient. 2. Comparing with staggered-grid high-order finite-difference method, CFPD takes less dots than FD at single wave length, and the number does not increase with the widening of the studying area. 3. Comparing with Chebyshev pseudo-spectral method (CPS). The calculation region of Chebyshev pseudo-spectral method is fixed in , under the condition of unchangeable precision, the augmentation of calculation is unacceptable. Thus Chebyshev pseudo-spectral method is inapplicable to large area. CFPD method is more applicable to large area. 4. Comparing with finite element method (FE), CFPD can use lager grids. The other task of this dissertation is to study 2.5 dimension (2.5D) seismic wave-field. The author reviews the development and present situation of 2.5D problem, expatiates the essentiality of studying the 2.5D problem, apply CFPD method to simulate the seismic wave-field in 2.5D inhomogeneous media. The results indicate that 2.5D numerical modeling is efficient to simulate one of the sections of 3D media, 2.5D calculation is much less time-consuming than 3D calculation, and the wave dispersion of 2.5D modeling is obviously less than that of 3D modeling. Question on applying time staggered-grid convolutional differentiator based on CFPD to modeling 2.5D complex inhomogeneous media was not studied by any geophysicists before, it is a fire-new creation absolutely. The theory and practices prove that the new method can efficiently model the seismic wave-field in complex media. Proposing and developing this new method can provide more choices to study the seismic wave-field modeling, seismic wave migration, seismic inversion, and seismic wave imaging.

基于弹性参数分析的碳酸盐岩储层预测方法研究

Prediction of Carbonate Reservoir Based on the Elastic Parameter Analysis Zhang Guangzhi (Solid Geophysics) Directed by Professor Liu Hong Abstract With the exploration and development of Puguang Oilfield, oil-gas exploration of carbonate rock in China has shown good prospects. Research on earthquake prediction methods for carbonate reservoir becomes the key of oil and gas exploration. Starting with analysis of geological characteristics of carbonate rock, prestack AVO inversion method, prestack elastic impedance inversion and parameter calculation method and seismic attribute extraction and optimization method were studied based on the analysis of rock physics in this work. First, variation characteristic and law of carbonate rock reservoir parameters were studied based on experimental data of rock physics, log data, analysis assay data, mud logging data and seismic data, so as to lay a foundation for the further reservoir identification and description. Then, the structure, type and propagation law of seismic wave field were analyzed through seismic forward modeling of the reservoir, and contact between information from log and geology data with elastic parameters, such as compressional wave and shear wave velocity and density were established, so as to provide a standard for reservoir identification and hydrocarbon detection using seismic reflection characteristics of the research area. Starting with the general concept of inverse problem, through analysis of Zoeppritz equation, three kinds of pre-stack inversion methods were derived and analyzed in detail, the AVO 3-parameter inversion based on Bayesian theory, the prestack AVO waveform inversion method and the simultaneous inversion method, based on the statistical hypothesis of inversion parameters and observation data and the Gauss distribution assumption of noise. The three methods were validated by model data and real data. Then, the elastic wave impedance inversion method of carbonate reservoir was investigated and the method of elastic parameter extraction from elastic impedance data was put forward. Based on the analysis of conventional methods of seismic attribute extraction and optimization, the time-frequency attributes and the wavelet attributes with time and amplitude feature were presented, and the prestack seismic attribute calculation method which can characterize the reservoir rock and fluid characteristic was presented. And the optimization of seismic attribute using the nonlinear KPCA method was also put forward. A series of seismic prediction technologies for carbonate reservoir were presented based on analysis of rock physics and seismic forward simulation technology. Practical application of these technologies was implemented in A oil field of Southern China and good effect has been achieved. Key words: carbonate rock; reservoir prediction; rock physics, prestack seismic inversion; seismic attribute

藏东南巨厚松散堆积体发育条件、成灾模式及防治对策——以川藏公路然乌至鲁朗段为例

The unique geologic, geomorphic and climatic conditions of southeast Tibet have made the region to develop the multi-style and frequently occurring geologic hazards, especially the collapses and landslides and debris flows along the section of Ranwu-Lulang in Sichuan-Tibet highway. However, most of those geologic hazards have close relationship with the loose accumulations. That is, the loose accumulations are the main carrier of most geologic hazards. Thereof, the huge-thick accumulations along the highway is regarded as the objective in the thesis to study the geologic background, hazarding model and mitigation methods comprehensively, based on the multi-disciplinary theories and former materials. First of all, in the paper, based on field engineering geologic investigations, the genetic type and the characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of the huge-thick loose accumulations along the highway, have been analysized from the factors of regional geology and geomorphy and climate, as well as the coupling acting of those factors with inoculation and eruption of the loose accumulations geologic hazards. The huge-thick loose accumulations has complex genetic types and specific regulations of spatiotemporal distribution, closely controlled by the outer environment of the region. The accumulations are composed of earth and boulder, with disorder structure and poor sorting, specific forming environments and depositing conditions. And its physical and mechanic properties are greatly distinguished from rock and common earth inland. When Sichuan-Tibet highway was firstly constructed along the north bank of Purlung Tsangpo River, the huge-thick loose accumulations was cut into many high and steep slopes. Through the survey to the cut-slopes and systematic investigation to their failures, the combination of height and angle of the accumulations slope has been obtained. At the same time, the types of genetic structure of those cut-slopes are also analysized and concluded, as well as their failure models. It is studied in the paper that there are piaster, duality, multielement and complexity types in genetic structure, and rip-dump-repose, rip-shear-slip and weathering-flake types in failure models. Moreover, it is briefly introduced present engineering performance methods and techniques dealing with the deformation and failure of the accumulations cut-slope. It is also suggested that several new techniques of slope enforcement and the method of landslide and rockfall avoiding should be applied. The research of high and steep cut-slope along the highway has broadened the acknowledgement of the combination of cut-slope height and angle. Especially, the dissertation also has made the monographic studies about the geologic background and hazarding models and prevention methods of some classic but difficult accumulations geologic hazards. They are: (1) Research of the engineering geologic background of the 102 landslide group and key problems about the project of tunnel. The 102 landslide group is a famous accumulational one composed of glacial tills and glaciofuvial deposit. The tunnel project is a feasible and optional one which can solve the present plight of “sliding after just harnessing” in the 102 section. Based on the glacial geomorphy and its depositing character, distribution of seepage line, a few drillhole materials and some surveying data, the position of contact surface between gneiss and accumulations has been recognized, and the retreating velocities of three different time scales (short, medium and long term) have been approximately calculated, and the weathering thickness of gneiss has also been estimated in the paper. On the basis of above acknowledgement, new engineering geomechnic mode is established. Numerical analysis about the stability of the No.2 landslide is done by way of FLAC program, which supplies the conclusion that the landslide there develops periodically. Thereof, 4 projects of tunnel going through the landslide have been put forwards. Safety distance of the tunnel from clinohefron has been numerically analysized. (2) Research of the geologic setting and disaster model and hazard mitigation of sliding-sand-slope. From the geologic setting of talus cone, it is indicated that the sliding-sand-slope is the process of the re-transportation and re-deposit of sand under the gravity action and from the talus cone. It is the failure of the talus cone essentially. The layering structure of the sliding-sand-slope is discovered. The models of movement and failure of the sliding-sand-slope has been put forwards. The technique, “abamurus+grass-bush fence+degradable culture pan”, is suggested to enforcement and green the sliding-sand-slope. (3) Characteristics and hazarding model and disaster mitigation of debris flow. The sources of solid material of three oversize debris flows have been analysized. It is found that a large amount of moraine existing in the glacial valley and large landslide dam-break are the two important features for oversize debris flow to be taken place. The disaster models of oversize and common debris flows have been generalized respectively. The former model better interpret the event of the Yigong super-large landslide-dam breaking. The features of common debris flow along the highway section, scouring and silting and burying and impacting, are formulated carefully. It is suggested that check dam is a better engineering structure to prevent valley from steeply scouring by debris flow. Moreover, the function of check dam in enforcing the slope is numerically calculated by FLAC program. (4) Songzong ancient ice-dammed lake and its slope stability. The lacustrine profile in Songzong landslide, more than 88 meters thick, is carefully described and measured. The Optical Simulated Luminescence (OSL) ages in the bottom and top of the silty clay layer are 22.5±3.3 kaB.P., 16.1±1.7 kaB.P., respectively. It is indicated by the ages that the lacustrine deposits formed during the Last Glacial Maximum ranging from 25ka B.P. to 15ka B.P. The special characteristics of the lacustrine sediment and the ancient lake line in Songzong basin indicated that the lacustrine sediment is related to the blocking of the Purlung Tsangpo River by the glacier in Last Glacial Maximum from Dongqu valley. The characteristics of the lacustrine profile also indicate that the Songzong ice-dammed lake might run through the Last Glacial Maximum. Two dimensional numerical modeling and analysis are done to simulate the slope stability under the conditions of nature and earthquake by FLAC program. The factor of safety of the lacusrtine slope is 1.04, but it will take place horizontal flow under earthquake activity due to the liquefaction of the 18.33 m silt layer. The realign to prevent the road from landslide is suggested.