Earthquake geology of Myanmar

This thesis describes the active structures of Myanmar and its surrounding regions, and the earthquake geology of the major active structures. Such investigation is needed urgently for this rapidly developing country that has suffered from destructive earthquakes in its long history. To archive a better understanding of the regional active tectonics and the seismic potential in the future, we utilized a global digital elevation model and optical satellite imagery to describe geomorphologic evidence for the principal neotectonic features of the western half of the Southeast Asia mainland. Our investigation shows three distinct active structural systems that accommodate the oblique convergence between the Indian plate and Southeast Asia and the extrusion of Asian territory around the eastern syntaxis of the Himalayan mountain range. Each of these active deformation belts can be further separated into several neotectonic domains, in which structures show distinctive active behaviors from one to another.

In order to better understand the behaviors of active structures, we focused on the active characteristics of the right-lateral Sagaing fault and the oblique subducting northern Sunda megathrust in the second part of this thesis. The detailed geomorphic investigations along these two major plate-interface faults revealed the recent slip behavior of these structures, and plausible recurrence intervals of major seismic events. We also documented the ground deformation of the 2011 Tarlay earthquake in remote eastern Myanmar from remote sensing datasets and post-earthquake field investigations. The field observation and the remote sensing measurements of surface ruptures of the Tarlay earthquake are the first study of this kind in the Myanmar region.

Three-dimensional nonlinear inelastic analysis of steel moment-frame buildings damaged by earthquake excitations

The Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994, highlighted the two previously known problems of premature fracturing of connections and the damaging capabilities of near-source ground motion pulses. Large ground motions had not been experienced in a city with tall steel moment-frame buildings before. Some steel buildings exhibited fracture of welded connections or other types of structural degradation.

A sophisticated three-dimensional nonlinear inelastic program is developed that can accurately model many nonlinear properties commonly ignored or approximated in other programs. The program can assess and predict severely inelastic response of steel buildings due to strong ground motions, including collapse.

Three-dimensional fiber and segment discretization of elements is presented in this work. This element and its two-dimensional counterpart are capable of modeling various geometric and material nonlinearities such as moment amplification, spread of plasticity and connection fracture. In addition to introducing a three-dimensional element discretization, this work presents three-dimensional constraints that limit the number of equations required to solve various three-dimensional problems consisting of intersecting planar frames.

Two buildings damaged in the Northridge earthquake are investigated to verify the ability of the program to match the level of response and the extent and location of damage measured. The program is used to predict response of larger near-source ground motions using the properties determined from the matched response.

A third building is studied to assess three-dimensional effects on a realistic irregular building in the inelastic range of response considering earthquake directivity. Damage levels are observed to be significantly affected by directivity and torsional response.

Several strong recorded ground motions clearly exceed code-based levels. Properly designed buildings can have drifts exceeding code specified levels due to these ground motions. The strongest ground motions caused collapse if fracture was included in the model. Near-source ground displacement pulses can cause columns to yield prior to weaker-designed beams. Damage in tall buildings correlates better with peak-to-peak displacements than with peak-to-peak accelerations.

Dynamic response of tall buildings shows that higher mode response can cause more damage than first mode response. Leaking of energy between modes in conjunction with damage can cause torsional behavior that is not anticipated.

Various response parameters are used for all three buildings to determine what correlations can be made for inelastic building response. Damage levels can be dramatically different based on the inelastic model used. Damage does not correlate well with several common response parameters.

Realistic modeling of material properties and structural behavior is of great value for understanding the performance of tall buildings due to earthquake excitations.

Part I. A study of the velocity structure of the earth by the use of core phases. Part II. The 1971 San Fernando earthquake series focal mechanisms and tectonics

The initial objective of Part I was to determine the nature of upper mantle discontinuities, the average velocities through the mantle, and differences between mantle structure under continents and oceans by the use of P'dP', the seismic core phase P'P' (PKPPKP) that reflects at depth d in the mantle. In order to accomplish this, it was found necessary to also investigate core phases themselves and their inferences on core structure. P'dP' at both single stations and at the LASA array in Montana indicates that the following zones are candidates for discontinuities with varying degrees of confidence: 800-950 km, weak; 630-670 km, strongest; 500-600 km, strong but interpretation in doubt; 350-415 km, fair; 280-300 km, strong, varying in depth; 100-200 km, strong, varying in depth, may be the bottom of the low-velocity zone. It is estimated that a single station cannot easily discriminate between asymmetric P'P' and P'dP' for lead times of about 30 sec from the main P'P' phase, but the LASA array reduces this uncertainty range to less than 10 sec. The problems of scatter of P'P' main-phase times, mainly due to asymmetric P'P', incorrect identification of the branch, and lack of the proper velocity structure at the velocity point, are avoided and the analysis shows that one-way travel of P waves through oceanic mantle is delayed by 0.65 to 0.95 sec relative to United States mid-continental mantle.

A new P-wave velocity core model is constructed from observed times, dt/dΔ's, and relative amplitudes of P'; the observed times of SKS, SKKS, and PKiKP; and a new mantle-velocity determination by Jordan and Anderson. The new core model is smooth except for a discontinuity at the inner-core boundary determined to be at a radius of 1215 km. Short-period amplitude data do not require the inner core Q to be significantly lower than that of the outer core. Several lines of evidence show that most, if not all, of the arrivals preceding the DF branch of P' at distances shorter than 143° are due to scattering as proposed by Haddon and not due to spherically symmetric discontinuities just above the inner core as previously believed. Calculation of the travel-time distribution of scattered phases and comparison with published data show that the strongest scattering takes place at or near the core-mantle boundary close to the seismic station.

In Part II, the largest events in the San Fernando earthquake series, initiated by the main shock at 14 00 41.8 GMT on February 9, 1971, were chosen for analysis from the first three months of activity, 87 events in all. The initial rupture location coincides with the lower, northernmost edge of the main north-dipping thrust fault and the aftershock distribution. The best focal mechanism fit to the main shock P-wave first motions constrains the fault plane parameters to: strike, N 67° (± 6°) W; dip, 52° (± 3°) NE; rake, 72° (67°-95°) left lateral. Focal mechanisms of the aftershocks clearly outline a downstep of the western edge of the main thrust fault surface along a northeast-trending flexure. Faulting on this downstep is left-lateral strike-slip and dominates the strain release of the aftershock series, which indicates that the downstep limited the main event rupture on the west. The main thrust fault surface dips at about 35° to the northeast at shallow depths and probably steepens to 50° below a depth of 8 km. This steep dip at depth is a characteristic of other thrust faults in the Transverse Ranges and indicates the presence at depth of laterally-varying vertical forces that are probably due to buckling or overriding that causes some upward redirection of a dominant north-south horizontal compression. Two sets of events exhibit normal dip-slip motion with shallow hypocenters and correlate with areas of ground subsidence deduced from gravity data. Several lines of evidence indicate that a horizontal compressional stress in a north or north-northwest direction was added to the stresses in the aftershock area 12 days after the main shock. After this change, events were contained in bursts along the downstep and sequencing within the bursts provides evidence for an earthquake-triggering phenomenon that propagates with speeds of 5 to 15 km/day. Seismicity before the San Fernando series and the mapped structure of the area suggest that the downstep of the main fault surface is not a localized discontinuity but is part of a zone of weakness extending from Point Dume, near Malibu, to Palmdale on the San Andreas fault. This zone is interpreted as a decoupling boundary between crustal blocks that permits them to deform separately in the prevalent crustal-shortening mode of the Transverse Ranges region.

Nonstationary response of structures and its application to earthquake engineering

This thesis presents a simplified state-variable method to solve for the nonstationary response of linear MDOF systems subjected to a modulated stationary excitation in both time and frequency domains. The resulting covariance matrix and evolutionary spectral density matrix of the response may be expressed as a product of a constant system matrix and a time-dependent matrix, the latter can be explicitly evaluated for most envelopes currently prevailing in engineering. The stationary correlation matrix of the response may be found by taking the limit of the covariance response when a unit step envelope is used. The reliability analysis can then be performed based on the first two moments of the response obtained.

The method presented facilitates obtaining explicit solutions for general linear MDOF systems and is flexible enough to be applied to different stochastic models of excitation such as the stationary models, modulated stationary models, filtered stationary models, and filtered modulated stationary models and their stochastic equivalents including the random pulse train model, filtered shot noise, and some ARMA models in earthquake engineering. This approach may also be readily incorporated into finite element codes for random vibration analysis of linear structures.

A set of explicit solutions for the response of simple linear structures subjected to modulated white noise earthquake models with four different envelopes are presented as illustration. In addition, the method has been applied to three selected topics of interest in earthquake engineering, namely, nonstationary analysis of primary-secondary systems with classical or nonclassical dampings, soil layer response and related structural reliability analysis, and the effect of the vertical components on seismic performance of structures. For all the three cases, explicit solutions are obtained, dynamic characteristics of structures are investigated, and some suggestions are given for aseismic design of structures.

Earthquake response of steel braces and braced steel frames

This thesis consists of three parts. Chapter 2 deals with the dynamic buckling behavior of steel braces under cyclic axial end displacement. Braces under such a loading condition belong to a class of "acceleration magnifying" structural components, in which a small motion at the loading points can cause large internal acceleration and inertia. This member-level inertia is frequently ignored in current studies of braces and braced structures. This chapter shows that, under certain conditions, the inclusion of the member-level inertia can lead to brace behavior fundamentally different from that predicted by the quasi-static method. This result is to have significance in the correct use of the quasi-static, pseudo-dynamic and static condensation methods in the simulation of braces or braced structures under dynamic loading. The strain magnitude and distribution in the braces are also studied in this chapter.

Chapter 3 examines the effect of column uplift on the earthquake response of braced steel frames and explores the feasibility of flexible column-base anchoring. It is found that fully anchored braced-bay columns can induce extremely large internal forces in the braced-bay members and their connections, thus increasing the risk of failures observed in recent earthquakes. Flexible braced-bay column anchoring can significantly reduce the braced bay member force, but at the same time also introduces large story drift and column uplift. The pounding of an uplifting column with its support can result in very high compressive axial force.

Chapter 4 conducts a comparative study on the effectiveness of a proposed non-buckling bracing system and several conventional bracing systems. The non-buckling bracing system eliminates buckling and thus can be composed of small individual braces distributed widely in a structure to reduce bracing force concentration and increase redundancy. The elimination of buckling results in a significantly more effective bracing system compared with the conventional bracing systems. Among the conventional bracing systems, bracing configurations and end conditions for the bracing members affect the effectiveness.

The studies in Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 also indicate that code-designed conventionally braced steel frames can experience unacceptably severe response under the strong ground motions recorded during the recent Northridge and Kobe earthquakes.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Dynamic rupture simulation integrated with earthquake observations

Dynamic rupture simulations are unique in their contributions to the study of earthquake physics. The current rapid development of dynamic rupture simulations poses several new questions: Do the simulations reflect the real world? Do the simulations have predictive power? Which one should we believe when the simulations disagree? This thesis illustrates how integration with observations can help address these questions and reduce the effects of non-uniqueness of both dynamic rupture simulations and kinematic inversion problems. Dynamic rupture simulations with observational constraints can effectively identify non-physical features inferred from observations. Moreover, the integrative technique can also provide more physical insights into the mechanisms of earthquakes. This thesis demonstrates two examples of such kinds of integration: dynamic rupture simulations of the M_w 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and of earthquake ruptures in damaged fault zones:

(1) We develop simulations of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on a variety of observations and minimum assumptions of model parameters. The simulations provide realistic estimations of stress drop and fracture energy of the region and explain the physical mechanisms of high-frequency radiation in the deep region. We also find that the overridding subduction wedge contributes significantly to the up-dip rupture propagation and large final slip in the shallow region. Such findings are also applicable to other megathrust earthquakes.

(2) Damaged fault zones are usually found around natural faults, but their effects on earthquake ruptures have been largely unknown. We simulate earthquake ruptures in damaged fault zones with material properties constrained by seismic and geological observations. We show that reflected waves in fault zones are effective at generating pulse-like ruptures and head waves tend to accelerate and decelerate rupture speeds. These mechanisms are robust in natural fault zones with large attenuation and off-fault plasticity. Moreover, earthquakes in damaged fault zones can propagate at super-Rayleigh speeds that are unstable in homogeneous media. Supershear transitions in fault zones do not require large fault stresses. In the end, we present observations in the Big Bear region, where variability of rupture speeds of small earthquakes correlates with the laterally variable materials in a damaged fault zone.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis.

As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California.

Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2~s-2.0~s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period ($>$ 2.0~s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms.

Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Studies of response to earthquake ground motion

A study is made of the accuracy of electronic digital computer calculations of ground displacement and response spectra from strong-motion earthquake accelerograms. This involves an investigation of methods of the preparatory reduction of accelerograms into a form useful for the digital computation and of the accuracy of subsequent digital calculations. Various checks are made for both the ground displacement and response spectra results, and it is concluded that the main errors are those involved in digitizing the original record. Differences resulting from various investigators digitizing the same experimental record may become as large as 100% of the maximum computed ground displacements. The spread of the results of ground displacement calculations is greater than that of the response spectra calculations. Standardized methods of adjustment and calculation are recommended, to minimize such errors.

Studies are made of the spread of response spectral values about their mean. The distribution is investigated experimentally by Monte Carlo techniques using an electric analog system with white noise excitation, and histograms are presented indicating the dependence of the distribution on the damping and period of the structure. Approximate distributions are obtained analytically by confirming and extending existing results with accurate digital computer calculations. A comparison of the experimental and analytical approaches indicates good agreement for low damping values where the approximations are valid. A family of distribution curves to be used in conjunction with existing average spectra is presented. The combination of analog and digital computations used with Monte Carlo techniques is a promising approach to the statistical problems of earthquake engineering.

Methods of analysis of very small earthquake ground motion records obtained simultaneously at different sites are discussed. The advantages of Fourier spectrum analysis for certain types of studies and methods of calculation of Fourier spectra are presented. The digitizing and analysis of several earthquake records is described and checks are made of the dependence of results on digitizing procedure, earthquake duration and integration step length. Possible dangers of a direct ratio comparison of Fourier spectra curves are pointed out and the necessity for some type of smoothing procedure before comparison is established. A standard method of analysis for the study of comparative ground motion at different sites is recommended.

Investigation of strong earthquake ground motion

The pattern of energy release during the Imperial Valley, California, earthquake of 1940 is studied by analysing the El Centro strong motion seismograph record and records from the Tinemaha seismograph station, 546 km from the epicenter. The earthquake was a multiple event sequence with at least 4 events recorded at El Centro in the first 25 seconds, followed by 9 events recorded in the next 5 minutes. Clear P, S and surface waves were observed on the strong motion record. Although the main part of the earthquake energy was released during the first 15 seconds, some of the later events were as large as M = 5.8 and thus are important for earthquake engineering studies. The moment calculated using Fourier analysis of surface waves agrees with the moment estimated from field measurements of fault offset after the earthquake. The earthquake engineering significance of the complex pattern of energy release is discussed. It is concluded that a cumulative increase in amplitudes of building vibration resulting from the present sequence of shocks would be significant only for structures with relatively long natural period of vibration. However, progressive weakening effects may also lead to greater damage for multiple event earthquakes.

The model with surface Love waves propagating through a single layer as a surface wave guide is studied. It is expected that the derived properties for this simple model illustrate well several phenomena associated with strong earthquake ground motion. First, it is shown that a surface layer, or several layers, will cause the main part of the high frequency energy, radiated from the nearby earthquake, to be confined to the layer as a wave guide. The existence of the surface layer will thus increase the rate of the energy transfer into the man-made structures on or near the surface of the layer. Secondly, the surface amplitude of the guided SH waves will decrease if the energy of the wave is essentially confined to the layer and if the wave propagates towards an increasing layer thickness. It is also shown that the constructive interference of SH waves will cause the zeroes and the peaks in the Fourier amplitude spectrum of the surface ground motion to be continuously displaced towards the longer periods as the distance from the source of the energy release increases.

Influence of local geology on earthquake ground motion

As a simplified approach for estimating theoretically the influence of local subsoils upon the ground motion during an earthquake, the problem of an idealized layered system subjected to vertically incident plane body waves was studied. Both the technique of steady-state analysis and the technique of transient analysis have been used to analyze the problem.

In the steady-state analysis, a recursion formula has been derived for obtaining the response of a layered system to sinusoidally steady-state input. Several conclusions are drawn concerning the nature of the amplification spectrum of a nonviscous layered system having its layer stiffnesses increasing with depth. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effect of layer parameters on the amplification spectrum of a layered system.

In the transient analysis, two modified shear beam models have been established for obtaining approximately the response of a layered system to earthquake-like excitation. The method of continuous modal analysis was adopted for approximate analysis of the models, with energy dissipation in the layers, if any, taken into account. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy of the models and the effect of a layered system in modifying the input motion.

Conditions are established, under which the theory is applicable to predict the influence of local subsoils on the ground motion during an earthquake. To demonstrate the applicability of the models to actual cases, three examples of actually recorded earthquake events are examined. It is concluded that significant modification of the incoming seismic waves, as predicted by the theory, is likely to occur in well defined soft subsoils during an earthquake, provided that certain conditions concerning the nature of the incoming seismic waves are satisfied.

Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Toppling Analysis of Precariously Balanced Rocks under Earthquake Excitation

Toppling analysis of a precariously balanced rock (PBR) can provide insights into the nature of ground motion that has not occurred at that location in the past and, by extension, realistic constraints on peak ground motions for use in engineering design. Earlier approaches have targeted simplistic 2-D models of the rock or modeled the rock-pedestal contact using spring-damper assemblies that require re-calibration for each rock. These analyses also assume that the rock does not slide on the pedestal. Here, a method to model PBRs in three dimensions is presented. The 3-D model is created from a point cloud of the rock, the pedestal, and their interface, obtained using Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS). The dynamic response of the model under earthquake excitation is simulated using a rigid body dynamics algorithm. The veracity of this approach is demonstrated by comparisons against data from shake table experiments. Fragility maps for toppling probability of the Echo Cliff PBR and the Pacifico PBR as a function of various ground motion parameters, rock-pedestal interface friction coefficient, and excitation direction are presented. The seismic hazard at these PBR locations is estimated using these maps. Additionally, these maps are used to assess whether the synthetic ground motions at these locations resulting from scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault are realistic (toppling would indicate that the ground motions are unrealistically high).

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.