Calibrating flood inundation models: methods for assessing model performance

Satellite observed data for flood events have been used to calibrate and validate flood inundation models, providing valuable information on the spatial extent of the flood. Improvements in the resolution of this satellite imagery have enabled indirect remote sensing of water levels by using an underlying LiDAR DEM to extract the water surface elevation at the flood margin. Further to comparison of the spatial extent, this now allows for direct comparison between modelled and observed water surface elevations. Using a 12.5m ERS-1 image of a flood event in 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK, both of these data types are extracted and each assessed for their value in the calibration of flood inundation models. A LiDAR guided snake algorithm is used to extract an outline of the flood from the satellite image. From the extracted outline a binary grid of wet / dry cells is created at the same resolution as the model, using this the spatial extent of the modelled and observed flood can be compared using a measure of fit between the two binary patterns of flooding. Water heights are extracted using points at intervals of approximately 100m along the extracted outline, and the students T-test is used to compare modelled and observed water surface elevations. A LISFLOOD-FP model of the catchment is set up using LiDAR topographic data resampled to the 12.5m resolution of the satellite image, and calibration of the friction parameter in the model is undertaken using each of the two approaches. Comparison between the two approaches highlights the sensitivity of the spatial measure of fit to uncertainty in the observed data and the potential drawbacks of using the spatial extent when parts of the flood are contained by the topography.

Dietary supplements of whole linseed and vitamin E to increase levels of alpha-linolenic acid and vitamin E in bovine milk

The potential to increase the concentrations of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) in milk fat was investigated by studying the effects of feeding a xylose-treated, whole cracked linseed supplement ( rich in alpha-linolenic acid) to dairy cows. Also the effect of increasing the dietary intake of vitamin E on the vitamin E status of milk was investigated. The effect of pasteurisation on milk fatty acid composition was also examined. Using a 3 x 2 factorial design, a total of 60 Holstein dairy cows were fed a total mixed ration based on grass silage supplemented with one of three levels of whole cracked linseed (78, 142 or 209 g . kg(-1) diet dry matter (DM); designated LL, ML or HL, respectively) in combination with one of two levels of additional dietary vitamin E intake ( 6 or 12 g vitamin E . animal(-1) . day(-1); designated LE or HE, respectively). Increasing lipid supplementation reduced (P < 0.01) diet DM intake and milk yield, and increased (P < 0.001) the overall content of oleic, vaccenic, alpha-linolenic and conjugated linoleic acids, and total PUFAs and monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA). Myristic and palmitic acids in milk fat were reduced ( P < 0.001) through increased lipid supplementation. While α-linolenic acid concentrations were substantially increased this acid only accounted for 0.02 of total fatty acids in milk at the highest level of supplementation (630 g α-linolenic acid &BULL; animal(-1) &BULL; day(-1) for HL). Conjugated linoleic acid concentrations in milk fat were almost doubled by increasing the level of lipid supplementation (8.9, 10.4 and 16.1 g &BULL; kg(-1) fatty acids for LL, ML and HL, respectively). Although milk vitamin E contents were generally increased there was no benefit (P > 0.05) of increasing vitamin E intake from 6 to 12 g . animal(-1) . day(-1). The fatty acid composition of milk was generally not affected by pasteurisation.

Test performance indicators from a single soccer specific fitness test differentiate between highly trained and recreationally active soccer players

Aim. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a single soccer specific fitness test (SSFT) could differentiate between highly trained and recreationally active soccer players in selected test performance indicators. Methods. Subjects: 13 Academy Scholars (AS) from a professional soccer club and 10 Recreational Players (RP) agreed to participate in this study. Test 1-(V)over dotO(2) max was estimated from a progressive shuttle run test to exhaustion. Test 2-The SSFT was controlled by an automated procedure and alternated between walking, sprinting, jogging and cruise running speeds. Three activity blocks (1A, 2A and 3A) were separated by 3 min rest periods in which blood lactate samples were drawn. The 3 blocks of activity (Part A) were followed by 10 min of exercise at speeds alternating between jogging and cruise running (Part B). Results. Estimated (V)over dotO(2) max did not significantly differ between groups, although a trend for a higher aerobic capacity was evident in AS (p<0.09). Exercising heart rates did not differ between AS and RP, however, recovery heart rates taken from the 3 min rest periods were significantly lower in AS compared with RP following blocks 1A (124.65 b(.)min(-1) +/-7.73 and 133.98 b(.)min(-1) +/-6.63), (p<0.05) and 3A (129.91 b.min(-1) +/-10.21 and 138.85 b.min(-1) +/-8.70), (p<0.01). Blood lactate concentrations were significantly elevated in AS in comparison to RP following blocks 2A (6.91 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-2.67 and 4.74 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-1.28) and 3A (7.18 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-2.97 and 4.88 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-1.50), (p<0.05). AS sustained significantly faster average sprint times in block 3A compared with RP (3.18 sec +/-0.12 and 3.31 sec +/-0.12), (p<0.05). Conclusion. The results of this study show that highly trained soccer players are able to sustain, and more quickly recover from, high intensity intermittent exercise.

Localisation studies of cell-wall degrading enzymes in soybean

Postembedding immunoelectron microscopy has been used to investigate the diffusibility of an endo-beta-1,4-glucanase and a xylanase from A. niger in soybean. The results showed more specific localisation of the enzymes into the protein and lipid bodies of soybean cells. This was against our hypothesis that suggested that the enzymes should be localised in the cell wall.

Soya isoflavone-enriched cereal bars affect markers of endothelial function in postmenopausal women

Soya isoflavones are thought to be cardioprotective due to their structural similarity to oestrogen. In order to investigate the effect of soya isoflavones on markers of endothelial function we conducted a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over study with thirty healthy postmenopausal women. The women consumed cereal bars, with or without soya isoflavones (50 mg/d), for 8 weeks, separated by an 8-week washout period. Systemic arterial complince (SAC), isobaric arterial compliance (IAC), flow-mediated endothelium-dependent vasodilation (FMD) and nitroglycerine-mediated endothelium-independent vasodilation (NMD) were measured at the beginning of the study and after each intervention period. Blood pressure (BP) and plasma concentrations of nitrite and nitrate (NOx) and endothelin-1 (ET-1) were measured at the beginning and end of each intervention period. NMD was 13.4 (sem 2.0) % at baseline and 15.5 (sem 1.1) % after isoflavone treatment compared with 12.4 (sem 1.0) % after placebo treatment (P=0.03). NOx increased from 27.7 (sem 2.7) to 31.1 (sem 3.2) mu m after isoflavones treatment compared with 25.4 (sem 1.5) to 20.4 (sem 1.1) mu m after placebo treatment (P=0.003) and a significant increase in the NOx:ET-1 ratio (P=0.005) was observed after the isoflavone treatment compared with placebo. A significant difference in SAC after the isoflavone and placebo treatment was observed (P=0.04). No significant difference was found in FMD, IAC, BP and ET-1. In conclusion, 8 weeks' consumption of cereals bars enriched with 50 mg soya isoflavones/d increased plasma NOx concentrations and improved endothelium-independent vasodilation in healthy postmenopausal women.

Social factors and postpartum depression in Khayelitsha, Cape Town

Social factors, including poverty, are known risk factors for depression. In a previous study conducted in Khayelitsha, a very poor peri-urban settlement near Cape Town, a 34.7% prevalence rate for postpartum depression was found, roughly three times the expected rate internationally. This article is a report on a logistical regression analysis, showing that the odds ratios for the probability of maternal depression at two months were: for the infant being unwanted, OR=4.33, 95% CI: (1.75; 11.60); for the father's negative attitude towards the infant, OR=6.03, 95% CI: (2.01; 20.09); and for the mother cohabiting with (as opposed to not living with) a male partner, OR=2.77, 95% CI: (1.08; 7.69). The odds ratios for the probability of the mother being insensitive towards the infant at two months were: for the mother aged 20 to 24 years, OR=0.40, 95% CI: (0.10; 1.42); for the mother aged 25 to 29 years, OR=0.24, 95% CI: (0.06; 0.77); for the mother aged 30 years or older, OR=0.27, 95% CI: (0.07; 0.90); and for the mother receiving no help from her partner, OR=2.12, 95% CI: (1.05; 4.33). Since data were collected cross-sectionally, it is not possible to draw conclusions about causal pathways. The findings support further investigation into the precursors of, and risk factors for, postpartum depression amongst poor South African women.

Association between dietary phyto-oestrogens and bone density in men and postmenopausal women

Phyto-oestrogens have been associated with a decreased risk for osteoporosis, but results from intervention and observational studies in Western countries have been inconsistent. In the present study, we investigated the association between habitual phyto-oestrogen intake and broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) of the calcanaeum as a marker of bone density. We collected 7 d records of diet, medical history and demographic and anthropometric data from participants (aged 45–75 years) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk study. Phyto-oestrogen (biochanin A, daidzein, formononetin; genistein, glycitein; matairesinol; secoisolariciresinol; enterolactone; equol) intake was determined using a newly developed food composition database. Bone density was assessed using BUA of the calcanaeum. Associations between bone density and phyto-oestrogen intake were investigated in 2580 postmenopausal women who were not on hormone replacement therapy and 4973 men. Median intake of total phyto-oestrogens was 876 (interquartile range 412) μg/d in postmenopausal women and 1212 (interquartile range 604) μg/d in men. The non-soya isoflavones formononetin and biochanin A were marginally significant or significantly associated with BUA in postmenopausal women (β = 1·2; P < 0·1) and men (β = 1·2; P < 0·05), respectively; enterolignans and equol were positively associated with bone density in postmenopausal women, but this association became non-significant when dietary Ca was added to the model. In the lowest quintile of Ca intake, soya isoflavones were positively associated with bone density in postmenopausal women (β = 1·4; P < 0·1). The present results therefore suggest that non-soya isoflavones are associated with bone density independent of Ca, whereas the association with soya or soya isoflavones is affected by dietary Ca.

Kinetics of the reaction between OH radicals and monochlorodimethylsulphide (CH3SCH2Cl)

The gas-phase rate coefficient for the reaction between OH radicals and CH3SCH2Cl (MCDMS) was determined to be (2.5±1.3)×10−12 cm3 molecule−1 s−1 using the discharge–flow kinetic technique. An estimate of ≈10−10 cm3 molecule−1 s−1 was obtained for the rate coefficient for reaction of Cl with MCDMS. It would appear that the reaction with OH is not the main loss process for CH3SCH2Cl in the marine boundary layer. The possible implications for the MBL of halogen-promoted oxidation of dimethylsulphide are considered.

Differential effects of dairy snacks on appetite, but not overall energy intake

Dietary regulation of appetite may contribute to the prevention and management of excess body weight. The present study examined the effect of consumption of individual dairy products as snacks on appetite and subsequent ad libitum lunch energy intake. In a randomised cross-over trial, forty overweight men (age 32 (sd 9) years; BMI 27 (sd 2) kg/m2) attended four sessions 1 week apart and received three isoenergetic (841 kJ) and isovolumetric (410 ml) servings of dairy snacks or water (control) 120 min after breakfast. Appetite profile was determined throughout the morning and ad libitum energy intake was assessed 90 min after the intake of snacks. Concentrations of amino acids, glucose, insulin, ghrelin and peptide tyrosine tyrosine were measured at baseline (0 min) and 80 min after the intake of snacks. Although the results showed that yogurt had the greatest suppressive effect on appetite, this could be confounded by the poor sensory ratings of yogurt. Hunger rating was 8, 10 and 24 % (P < 0·001) lower after the intake of yogurt than cheese, milk and water, respectively. Energy intake was 11, 9 and 12 % (P < 0·02) lower after the intake of yogurt, cheese and milk, respectively, compared with water (4312 (se 226) kJ). Although there was no difference in the postprandial responses of hormones, alanine and isoleucine concentrations were higher after the intake of yogurt than cheese and milk (P < 0·05). In conclusion, all dairy snacks reduced appetite and lunch intake compared with water. Yogurt had the greatest effect on suppressing subjective appetite ratings, but did not affect subsequent food intake compared with milk or cheese.

Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office unified model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom

With many operational centers moving toward order 1-km-gridlength models for routine weather forecasting, this paper presents a systematic investigation of the properties of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for short-range forecasting of convective rainfall events. The authors describe a suite of configurations of the Met Office Unified Model running with grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km and analyze results from these models for a number of convective cases from the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. The analysis includes subjective evaluation of the rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall amounts, initiation, cell statistics, and a scale-selective verification technique. It is shown that the 4- and 1-km-gridlength models often give more realistic-looking precipitation fields because convection is represented explicitly rather than parameterized. However, the 4-km model representation suffers from large convective cells and delayed initiation because the grid length is too long to correctly reproduce the convection explicitly. These problems are not as evident in the 1-km model, although it does suffer from too numerous small cells in some situations. Both the 4- and 1-km models suffer from poor representation at the start of the forecast in the period when the high-resolution detail is spinning up from the lower-resolution (12 km) starting data used. A scale-selective precipitation verification technique implies that for later times in the forecasts (after the spinup period) the 1-km model performs better than the 12- and 4-km models for lower rainfall thresholds. For higher thresholds the 4-km model scores almost as well as the 1-km model, and both do better than the 12-km model.

The kinetics of the gas-phase reactions of selected monoterpenes and cyclo-alkenes with ozone and the NO3 radical

The relative rate method has been used to measure the room-temperature rate constants for the gasphase reactions of ozone and NO3 with selected monoterpenes and cyclo-alkenes with structural similarities to monoterpenes. Measurements were carried out at 298 ! 2 K and 760 ! 10 Torr. The following rate constants (in units of 10"18 cm3 molecule"1 s"1) were obtained for the reaction with ozone: methyl cyclohexene (132 ! 17), terpinolene (1290 ! 360), ethylidene cyclohexane (223 ! 57), norbornene (860 ! 240), t-butyl isopropylidene cyclohexane (1500 ! 460), cyclopentene (543 ! 94), cyclohexene (81 ! 18), cyclooctene (451 ! 66), dicyclopentadiene (1460 ! 170) and a-pinene (107 ! 13). For the reaction with NO3 the rate constants obtained (in units of 10"12 cm3 molecule"1 s"1) were: methyl cyclohexene (7.92 ! 0.95), terpinolene (47.9 ! 4.0), ethylidene cyclohexane (4.30 ! 0.24), norbornene (0.266 ! 0.029), cyclohexene (0.540 ! 0.017), cyclooctene (0.513 ! 0.029), dicyclopentadiene (1.20 ! 0.10) and a-pinene (5.17 ! 0.62). Errors are quoted as the root mean square of the statistical error (95% con!dence) and the quoted error in the rate constant for the reference compound. Combining these results with previous studies, new recommendations for the rate constants are presented. Molecular orbital energies were calculated for each alkene and the kinetic data are discussed in terms of the deviation from the structureeactivity relationship obtained from the rate constants for a series of simple alkenes. Lifetimes with respect to key initiators of atmospheric oxidation have been calculated suggesting that the studied reactions play dominant roles in the night-time removal of these compounds from the atmosphere.

The reaction between silylene and ammonia: some gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by 193 nm laser flash photolysis of silacyclopent-3-ene, have been carried out in the presence of ammonia, NH3. Second order kinetics were observed. The reaction was studied in the gas phase at 10 Torr total pressure in SF6 bath gas at each of the three temperatures, 299, 340 and 400 K. The second order rate constants (laser pulse energy of 60 mJ/pulse) fitted the Arrhenius equation: log(k/cm3 molecule-1 s-1) = (-10.37 ± 0.17) + (0.36 ± 1.12 kJ mol-1)/RTln10 Experiments at other pressures showed that these rate constants were unaffected by pressure in the range 10-100 Torr, but showed small decreases in value at 3 and 1 Torr. There was also a weak intensity dependence, with rate constants decreasing at laser pulse energies of 30 mJ/pulse. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level of theory, show that SiH2 + NH3 should form an initial adduct (donor-acceptor complex), but that energy barriers are too great for further reaction of the adduct. This implies that SiH2 + NH3 should be a pressure dependent association reaction. The experimental data are inconsistent with this and we conclude that SiH2 decays are better explained by reaction of SiH2 with the amino radical, NH2, formed by photodissociation of NH3 at 193 nm. The mechanism of this previously unstudied reaction is discussed.

Association between FTO variant and change in body weight and its interaction with dietary factors: the DiOGenes study

Although FTO is an established obesity-susceptibility locus, it remains unknown whether it influences weight change in adult life and whether diet attenuates this association. Therefore, we investigated the association of FTO-rs9939609 with changes in weight and waist circumference (WC) during 6.8 years follow-up in a large-scale prospective study and examined whether these associations were modified by dietary energy percentage from fat, protein, carbohydrate, or glycemic index (GI). This study comprised data from five countries of European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and was designed as a case-cohort study for weight gain. Analyses included 11,091 individuals, of whom 5,584 were cases (age (SD), 47.6 (7.5) years), defined as those with the greatest unexplained annual weight gain during follow-up and 5,507 were noncases (48.0 (7.3) years), who were compared in our case-noncase (CNC) analyses. Furthermore, 6,566 individuals (47.9 (7.3) years) selected from the total sample (all noncases and 1,059 cases) formed the random subcohort (RSC), used for continuous trait analyses. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in the models. In the RSC-analyses, FTO-rs9939609 was associated with BMI (β (SE), 0.17 (0.08) kg·m(-2)/allele; P = 0.034) and WC (0.47 (0.21) cm/allele; P = 0.026) at baseline, but not with weight change (5.55 (12.5) g·year(-1)/allele; P = 0.66) during follow up. In the CNC-analysis, FTO-rs9939609 was associated with increased risk of being a weight-gainer (OR: 1.1; P = 0.045). We observed no interaction between FTO-rs9939609 and dietary fat, protein and carbohydrate, and GI on BMI and WC at baseline or on change in weight and WC. FTO-rs9939609 is associated with BMI and WC at baseline, but association with weight gain is weak and only observed for extreme gain. Dietary factors did not influence the associations.

The Landau free energy of hard ellipses obtained from microscopic simulations

Systems of two-dimensional hard ellipses of varying aspect ratios and packing fractions are studied by Monte Carlo simulations in the generalised canonical ensemble. From this microscopic model, we extract a coarse-grained macroscopic Landau-de Gennes free energy as a function of packing fraction and orientational order parameter. We separate the free energy into the ideal orientational entropy of non-interacting two-dimensional spins and an excess free energy associated with excluded volume interactions. We further explore the isotropic-nematic phase transition using our empirical expression for the free energy and find that the nature of the phase transition is continuous for the aspect ratios we studied.

A genome wide association study of mathematical ability reveals an association at chromosome 3q29, a locus associated with autism and learning difficulties: a preliminary study

Mathematical ability is heritable, but few studies have directly investigated its molecular genetic basis. Here we aimed to identify specific genetic contributions to variation in mathematical ability. We carried out a genome wide association scan using pooled DNA in two groups of U.K. samples, based on end of secondary/high school national academic exam achievement: high (n = 419) versus low (n = 183) mathematical ability while controlling for their verbal ability. Significant differences in allele frequencies between these groups were searched for in 906,600 SNPs using the Affymetrix GeneChip Human Mapping version 6.0 array. After meeting a threshold of p<1.5×10-5, 12 SNPs from the pooled association analysis were individually genotyped in 542 of the participants and analyzed to validate the initial associations (lowest p-value 1.14 ×10-6). In this analysis, one of the SNPs (rs789859) showed significant association after Bonferroni correction, and four (rs10873824, rs4144887, rs12130910 rs2809115) were nominally significant (lowest p-value 3.278 × 10-4). Three of the SNPs of interest are located within, or near to, known genes (FAM43A, SFT2D1, C14orf64). The SNP that showed the strongest association, rs789859, is located in a region on chromosome 3q29 that has been previously linked to learning difficulties and autism. rs789859 lies 1.3 kbp downstream of LSG1, and 700 bp upstream of FAM43A, mapping within the potential promoter/regulatory region of the latter. To our knowledge, this is only the second study to investigate the association of genetic variants with mathematical ability, and it highlights a number of interesting markers for future study.