The integration of an intelligent knowledge-based system into engineering software using the blackboard structure

Over recent years there has been an increase in the use of generic Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software packages spread across various application fields. This has created the need for the integration of expertise into CFD software. Expertise can be integrated into CFD software in the form of an Intelligent Knowledge-Based System (IKBS). The advantages of integrating intelligence into generic engineering software are discussed with a special view to software engineering considerations. The software modelling cycle of a typical engineering problem is identified and the respective expertise and user control needed for each modelling phase is shown. The requirements of an IKBS for CFD software are discussed and compared to current practice. The blackboard software architecture is presented. This is shown to be appropriate for the integration of an IKBS into an engineering software package. This is demonstrated through the presentation of the prototype CFD software package FLOWES.

Modelling the fluid dynamics and coupled phenomena in arc weld pools

A 3D model of melt pool created by a moving arc type heat sources has been developed. The model solves the equations of turbulent fluid flow, heat transfer and electromagnetic field to demonstrate the flow behaviour phase-change in the pool. The coupled effects of buoyancy, capillary (Marangoni) and electromagnetic (Lorentz) forces are included within an unstructured finite volume mesh environment. The movement of the welding arc along the workpiece is accomplished via a moving co-ordinator system. Additionally a method enabling movement of the weld pool surface by fluid convection is presented whereby the mesh in the liquid region is allowed to move through a free surface. The surface grid lines move to restore equilibrium at the end of each computational time step and interior grid points then adjust following the solution of a Laplace equation.

Mathematical modelling of the behaviour of granular material in a computational fluid dynamics framework using micro-mechanical models

In this paper, a Computational Fluid Dynamics framework is presented for the modelling of key processes which involve granular material (i.e. segregation, degradation, caking). Appropriate physical models and sophisticated algorithms have been developed for the correct representation of the different material components in a granular mixture. The various processes, which arise from the micromechanical properties of the different mixture species can be obtained and parametrised in a DEM / experimental framework, thus enabling the continuum theory to correctly account for the micromechanical properties of a granular system. The present study establishes the link between the micromechanics and continuum theory and demonstrates the model capabilities in simulations of processes which are of great importance to the process engineering industry and involve granular materials in complex geometries.

Modelling and optimization of a pneumatic microfeeder system

This paper presents modelling and design optimization of a microfeeder which, as part of a microassembly system, is used for contactless object delivery. The microfeeder consists of an array of microactuators which are controlled by electrostatic actuation and used for maneuvering outcoming air jet for object hovering and delibery. The airflow behaviour in the microactuator is analysed by means of fluid mechanics and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation from three aspects, theoretical analysis, initial design assessment, and design modifications. The focus is put on the basic types of the microfeeder structure and the effects of structural details to the systematic performance. The structural pattern of the microactuator for forming airflow nozzle is identified and two design plans are proposed as basic structure patterns of pneumatic microactuators. The optimized design numerically shows the ability of delivering objects. This paper analyses the flow distribution pattern in microactuators and points out a way for effective design of pneumatic microfeeder systems. The optimization strategy provided by the present paper has close relevance to the design and manufacture of pneumatic microfeeder systems.

Effect of fluid dynamics and device mechanism on biofluid behaviour in microchannel systems: modelling biofluids in a microchannel biochip separator

Biofluid behaviour in microchannel systems is investigated in this paper through the modelling of a microfluidic biochip developed for the separation of blood plasma. Based on particular assumptions, the effects of some mechanical features of the microchannels on behaviour of the biofluid are explored. These include microchannel, constriction, bending channel, bifurcation as well as channel length ratio between the main and side channels. The key characteristics and effects of the microfluidic dynamics are discussed in terms of separation efficiency of the red blood cells with respect to the rest of the medium. The effects include the Fahraeus and Fahraeus-Lindqvist effects, the Zweifach-Fung bifurcation law, the cell-free layer phenomenon. The characteristics of the microfluid dynamics include the properties of the laminar flow as well as particle lateral or spinning trajectories. In this paper the fluid is modelled as a single-phase flow assuming either Newtonian or Non-Newtonian behaviours to investigate the effect of the viscosity on flow and separation efficiency. It is found that, for a flow rate controlled Newtonian flow system, viscosity and outlet pressure have little effect on velocity distribution. When the fluid is assumed to be Non-Newtonian more fluid is separated than observed in the Newtonian case, leading to reduction of the flow rate ratio between the main and side channels as well as the system pressure as a whole.

Towards an integrated forecasting system for pelagic fisheries

First results of a coupled modeling and forecasting system for the pelagic fisheries are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically fundamentally different model subsystems: POLCOMS-ERSEM providing the physical-biogeochemical environment implemented in the domain of the North-West European shelf and the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea. The third component, the SLAM model, connects POLCOMS-ERSEM and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and lower trophic levels to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the base of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeels stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock eigen dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

The carbonate system of the NW European shelf: sensitivity and model validation

The ocean plays an important role in regulating the climate, acting as a sink for carbon dioxide, perturbing the carbonate system and resulting in a slow decrease of seawater pH. Understanding the dynamics of the carbonate system in shelf sea regions is necessary to evaluate the impact of Ocean Acidification (OA) in these societally important ecosystems. Complex hydrodynamic and ecosystem coupled models provide a method of capturing the significant heterogeneity of these areas. However rigorous validation is essential to properly assess the reliability of such models. The coupled model POLCOMS–ERSEM has been implemented in the North Western European shelf with a new parameterization for alkalinity explicitly accounting for riverine inputs and the influence of biological processes. The model has been validated in a like with like comparison with North Sea data from the CANOBA dataset. The model shows good to reasonable agreement for the principal variables, physical (temperature and salinity), biogeochemical (nutrients) and carbonate system (dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity), but simulation of the derived variables, pH and pCO2, are not yet fully satisfactory. This high uncertainty is attributed mostly to riverine forcing and primary production. This study suggests that the model is a useful tool to provide information on Ocean Acidification scenarios, but uncertainty on pH and pCO2 needs to be reduced, particularly when impacts of OA on ecosystem functions are included in the model systems.

Impact of zooplankton food selectivity on plankton dynamics and nutrient cycling

Within models, zooplankton grazing is typically defined as being dependent on total prey concentration, with feeding selectivity expressed only as a function of prey size. This behavior ignores taxonomic preferences shown by the preda- tors and the capacity of some zooplankton to actively select or reject individual prey items from mixtures. We carried out two model experiments comparing impacts of zooplankton displaying passive and active selection, which resulted in contrasting dynamics for the pelagic system. Passive selection by the grazer resulted in a top down control on the prey with a fast turn-over of nutrients. Active selection, on the other hand led to a bottom-up control, with slower nutrient turnover constraining primary production by changing the system toward export of particulate matter. Our results suggest that selective feeding behavior is an important trait, and should be considered alongside size and taxonomy when studying the role of zooplankton impact in the ecosystem.

Probabilistic Models to Describe the Dynamics of Migrating Microbial Communities

In all but the most sterile environments bacteria will reside in fluid being transported through conduits and some of these will attach and grow as biofilms on the conduit walls. The concentration and diversity of bacteria in the fluid at the point of delivery will be a mix of those when it entered the conduit and those that have become entrained into the flow due to seeding from biofilms. Examples include fluids through conduits such as drinking water pipe networks, endotracheal tubes, catheters and ventilation systems. Here we present two probabilistic models to describe changes in the composition of bulk fluid microbial communities as they are transported through a conduit whilst exposed to biofilm communities. The first (discrete) model simulates absolute numbers of individual cells, whereas the other (continuous) model simulates the relative abundance of taxa in the bulk fluid. The discrete model is founded on a birth-death process whereby the community changes one individual at a time and the numbers of cells in the system can vary. The continuous model is a stochastic differential equation derived from the discrete model and can also accommodate changes in the carrying capacity of the bulk fluid. These models provide a novel Lagrangian framework to investigate and predict the dynamics of migrating microbial communities. In this paper we compare the two models, discuss their merits, possible applications and present simulation results in the context of drinking water distribution systems. Our results provide novel insight into the effects of stochastic dynamics on the composition of non-stationary microbial communities that are exposed to biofilms and provides a new avenue for modelling microbial dynamics in systems where fluids are being transported.

ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels

The ERSEM model is one of the most established ecosystem models for the lower trophic levels of the marine food-web in the scientific literature. Since its original development in the early nineties it has evolved significantly from a coastal ecosystem model for the North-Sea to a generic tool for ecosystem simulations from shelf seas to the global ocean. The current model release contains all essential elements for the pelagic and benthic part of the marine ecosystem, including the microbial food-web, the carbonate system and calcification. Its distribution is accompanied by a testing framework enabling the analysis of individual parts of the model. Here we provide a detailed mathematical description of all ERSEM components along with case-studies of mesocosm type simulations, water column implementations and a brief example of a full-scale application for the North-West European shelf. Validation against in situ data demonstrates the capability of the model to represent the marine ecosystem in contrasting environments.

Spatio-temporal Bayesian network models with latent variables for revealing trophic dynamics and functional networks in fisheries ecology

Ecosystems consist of complex dynamic interactions among species and the environment, the understanding of which has implications for predicting the environmental response to changes in climate and biodiversity. However, with the recent adoption of more explorative tools, like Bayesian networks, in predictive ecology, few assumptions can be made about the data and complex, spatially varying interactions can be recovered from collected field data. In this study, we compare Bayesian network modelling approaches accounting for latent effects to reveal species dynamics for 7 geographically and temporally varied areas within the North Sea. We also apply structure learning techniques to identify functional relationships such as prey–predator between trophic groups of species that vary across space and time. We examine if the use of a general hidden variable can reflect overall changes in the trophic dynamics of each spatial system and whether the inclusion of a specific hidden variable can model unmeasured group of species. The general hidden variable appears to capture changes in the variance of different groups of species biomass. Models that include both general and specific hidden variables resulted in identifying similarity with the underlying food web dynamics and modelling spatial unmeasured effect. We predict the biomass of the trophic groups and find that predictive accuracy varies with the models' features and across the different spatial areas thus proposing a model that allows for spatial autocorrelation and two hidden variables. Our proposed model was able to produce novel insights on this ecosystem's dynamics and ecological interactions mainly because we account for the heterogeneous nature of the driving factors within each area and their changes over time. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for additional sources of variation, by combining structure learning from data and experts' knowledge in the model architecture, has the potential for gaining deeper insights into the structure and stability of ecosystems. Finally, we were able to discover meaningful functional networks that were spatially and temporally differentiated with the particular mechanisms varying from trophic associations through interactions with climate and commercial fisheries.

ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels

The European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) is one of the most established ecosystem models for the lower trophic levels of the marine food web in the scientific literature. Since its original development in the early nineties it has evolved significantly from a coastal ecosystem model for the North Sea to a generic tool for ecosystem simulations from shelf seas to the global ocean. The current model release contains all essential elements for the pelagic and benthic parts of the marine ecosystem, including the microbial food web, the carbonate system, and calcification. Its distribution is accompanied by a testing framework enabling the analysis of individual parts of the model. Here we provide a detailed mathematical description of all ERSEM components along with case studies of mesocosm-type simulations, water column implementations, and a brief example of a full-scale application for the north-western European shelf. Validation against in situ data demonstrates the capability of the model to represent the marine ecosystem in contrasting environments.

Contact zone dynamics and the evolution of reproductive isolation in a North American treefrog, the spring peeper (Pseudacris crucifer)

Despite over seven decades of speciation research and 25 years of phylogeographic studies, a comprehensive understanding of mechanisms that generate biological species remains elusive. In temperate zones, the pervasiveness of range fragmentation and subsequent range expansions suggests that secondary contact between diverging lineages may be important in the evolution of species. Thus, such contact zones provide compelling opportunities to investigate evolutionary processes, particularly the roles of geographical isolation in initiating, and indirect selection against hybrids in completing (reinforcement), the evolution of reproductive isolation and speciation. The spring peeper (Pseudacris crucifer) has six well-supported mitochondrial lineages many of which are now in secondary contact. Here I investigate the evolutionary consequences of secondary contact of two such lineages (Eastern and Interior) in Southwestern Ontario using genetic, morphological, acoustical, experimental, and behavioural evidence to show accentuated divergence of the mate recognition system in sympatry. Mitochondrial and microsatellite data distinguish these two lineages but also show ongoing hybridization. Bayesian assignment tests and cline analysis imply asymmetrical introgression of Eastern lineage nuclear markers into Interior populations. Male calls are divergent between Eastern and Interior allopatric populations and show asymmetrical reproductive character displacement in sympatry. Female preference of pure lineage individuals is also exaggerated in sympatry, with hybrids showing intermediate traits and preference. I suggest that these patterns are most consistent with secondary reinforcement. I assessed levels of post-zygotic isolation between the Eastern and Interior lineages using a laboratory hybridization experiment. Hybrid tadpoles showed equal to or greater fitness than their pure lineage counterparts, but this may be countered through competition. More deformities and developmental anomalies in hybrid tadpoles further suggest post-zygotic isolation. Despite evidence for pre-mating isolation between the two lineages, isolation appears incomplete (i.e. hybridization is ongoing). I hypothesize that potentially less attractive hybrids may circumvent female choice by adopting satellite behaviour. Although mating tactics are related to body size, genetic status may play a role. I show that pure Eastern males almost always engage in calling, while hybrids adopt a satellite tactic. An absence of assortative mating, despite evidence of female preference, suggests successful satellite interception possibly facilitating introgression.

The trade unions membership dynamics and union members’ trajectories

This text presents an analysis of aggregated membership’s dynamics for Spanish trade unions, using ECVT data, as well as union memberships’ trajectories, or members’ decisions about joining the organization, permanency and responsibilities, and subsequent attrition. For the analysis of trajectories we make use of information of the records of actual memberships and the record of quitting of CCOO, and of a survey-questionnaire to a sample of leavers of the same union. This study allows us to confirm a linkage between the decision and motivations to become union member, to participate in union activities, the time of permanency, and the motives to quit the organization. We also identify five types of union members’ trajectories, indicating that, far from views that assert a monolithic structure, unions are complex organizations.