The Impact of the EMU on International Portfolio Investments

This paper analyses the impact of the launch of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on the allocation of international portfolio investments. The initiation of the EMU provides an opportunity for comparison of competing theoretical explanations for investment behavior. Models stressing the diversification motive would predict that the increased dependence between countries participating in the EMU should reduce the attractiveness of portfolio holdings in other EMU countries. Models based on asymmetric information would instead emphasize the increased intensity in the flow of information resulting from an increase in cross border transactions between the EMU countries. The consequent decline in information asymmetry should increase, rather than reduce portfolio holdings in other EMU countries. Our results based on the allocation of Finnish foreign portfolio investment support the information-based explanation against predictions based on the diversification motive.

An Empirical Study of the Mixture of Time and Movements in Prices

This paper investigates the persistent pattern in the Helsinki Exchanges. The persistent pattern is analyzed using a time and a price approach. It is hypothesized that arrival times are related to movements in prices. Thus, the arrival times are defined as durations and formulated as an Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model as in Engle and Russell (1998). The prices are defined as price changes and formulated as a GARCH process including duration measures. The research question follows from market microstructure predictions about price intensities defined as time between price changes. The microstructure theory states that long transaction durations might be associated with both no news and bad news. Accordingly, short durations would be related to high volatility and long durations to low volatility. As a result, the spread will tend to be larger under intensive moments. The main findings of this study are 1) arrival times are positively autocorrelated and 2) long durations are associated with low volatility in the market.

Flow Generated By Pitched Blade Turbines Ii: Simulation Using Κ-Ε Model

Experimental data on average velocity and turbulence intensity generated by pitched blade downflow turbines (PTD) were presented in Part I of this paper. Part II presents the results of the simulation of flow generated by PTD The standard κ-ε model along with the boundary conditions developed in the Part 1 have been employed to predict the flow generated by PTD in cylindrical baffled vessel. This part describes the new software FIAT (Flow In Agitated Tanks) for the prediction of three dimensional flow in stirred tanks. The basis of this software has been described adequately. The influence of grid size, impeller boundary conditions and values of model parameters on the predicted flow have been analysed. The model predictions successfully reproduce the three dimensionality and the other essential characteristics of the flow. The model can be used to improve the overall understanding about the relative distribution of turbulence by PTD in the agitated tank

An elastic-viscoplastic constitutive model for the hot-forming of aluminum alloys

Under hot-forming conditions characterized by high homologous temperatures and strain-rates, metals usually exhibit rate-dependent inelastic behavior. An elastic-viscoplastic constitutive model is presented here to describe metal behavior during hot-forming. The model uses an isotropic internal variable to represent the resistance offered to plastic deformation by the microstructure. Evolution equations are developed for the inelastic strain and the deformation resistance based on experimental results. A methodology is presented for extracting model parameters from constant true strain-rate compression tests performed at different temperatures. Model parameters are determined for an Al-1Mn alloy and an Al-Mg-Si alloy, and the predictions of the model are shown to be in good agreement with the experimental data. (C) 2000 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Helicopter blade flapping with and without small angle assumption in the presence of dynamic stall

The flapping equation for a rotating rigid helicopter blade is typically derived by considering (1)small flap angle, (2) small induced angle of attack and (3) linear aerodynamics. However, the use of nonlinear aerodynamics such as dynamic stall can make the assumptions of small angles suspect as shown in this paper. A general equation describing helicopter blade flap dynamics for large flap angle and large induced inflow angle of attack is derived. A semi-empirical dynamic stall aerodynamics model (ONERA model) is used. Numerical simulations are performed by solving the nonlinear flapping ordinary differential equation for steady state conditions and the validity of the small angle approximations are examined. It is shown that the small flapping assumption, and to a lesser extent, the small induced angle ofattack assumption, can lead to inaccurate predictions of the blade flap response in certain flight conditions for some rotors when nonlinear aerodynamics is considered. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Grönlannin mannerjäätikön tulevaisuus: merenpinnan nousu maailmanlaajuisesti ja Itämerellä

Sea level rise is among the most worrying consequences of climate change, and the biggest uncertainty of sea level predictions lies in the future behaviour of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. In this work, a literature review is made concerning the future of the Greenland ice sheet and the effect of its melting on Baltic Sea level. The relation between sea level and ice sheets is also considered more generally from a theoretical and historical point of view. Lately, surprisingly rapid changes in the amount of ice discharging into the sea have been observed along the coastal areas of the ice sheets, and the mass deficit of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets which are considered vulnerable to warming has been increasing from the 1990s. The changes are probably related to atmospheric or oceanic temperature variations which affect the flow speed of ice either via meltwater penetrating to the bottom of the ice sheet or via changes in the flow resistance generated by the floating parts of an ice stream. These phenomena are assumed to increase the mass deficit of the ice sheets in the warming climate; however, there is no comprehensive theory to explain and model them. Thus, it is not yet possible to make reliable predictions of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. On the grounds of the historical evidence it appears that sea level can rise rather rapidly, 1 2 metres per century, even during warm climate periods. Sea level rise projections of similar magnitude have been made with so-called semiempirical methods that are based on modelling the link between sea level and global mean temperature. Such a rapid rise would require considerable acceleration of the ice sheet flow. Stronger rise appears rather unlikely, among other things because the mountainous coastline restricts ice discharge from Greenland. The upper limit of sea level rise from Greenland alone has been estimated at half a metre by the end of this century. Due to changes in the Earth s gravity field, the sea level rise caused by melting ice is not spatially uniform. Near the melting ice sheet the sea level rise is considerably smaller than the global average, whereas farther away it is slightly greater than the average. Because of this phenomenon, the effect of the Greenland ice sheet on Baltic Sea level will probably be rather small during this century, 15 cm at most. Melting of the Antarctic ice sheet is clearly more dangerous for the Baltic Sea, but also very uncertain. It is likely that the sea level predictions will become more accurate in the near future as the ice sheet models develop.

Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

The stress in a slowly sheared granular column

We report measurements of the wall stress in a granular material sheared in a cylindrical Couette cell, as a function of the distance from the free surface. Our results shows that when the material is static, all components of the stress saturate to constant values within a short distance from the free surface, in conformity with earlier experiments and theoretical predictions. When the material is sheared by rotating the inner cylinder at a constant rate, the stresses are remarkably altered. The radial normal stress does not saturate, and increases even more rapidly with depth than the linear hydrostatic pressure profile. The axial shear stress changes sign on shearing, and its magnitude increases with depth. These results are discussed in the context of the predictions of the classical and Cosserat plasticity theories.

Modelling of void initiation and breaking phenomena in a packed bed

Void breaking and formation in a packed bed are important phenomena in stabilising and optimising the performance of reactors such as the blast furnace, spouted bed and catalytic regenerator. These phenomena have been studied using a mathematical model. The model is based on a previously published force balance approach to predict the cavity size. Limited numbers of experiments, at room temperature, have been carried out in order to compare the experimental results with theory. A good agreement has been found between the experimental and theoretical results. In addition, the predictions have been compared with published data, which give reasonable agreement. The role of various forces (friction, pressure and bed weight) on void initiation and breaking has been investigated. The effect of bed height, particle diameter and density, void fraction, as well as gas flow rate on void formation and breaking has also been studied.

Rannansiirtyminen ja ihmisen toimintaympäristön muutos Mätäjokilaakson alueella esihistoriallisella ajalla

In this thesis, I study the changing ladscape and human environment of the Mätäjoki Valley, West-Helsinki, using reconstructions and predictive modelling. The study is a part of a larger project funded by the city of Helsinki aming to map the past of the Mätäjoki Valley. The changes in landscape from an archipelago in the Ancylus Lake to a river valley are studied from 10000 to 2000 years ago. Alongside shore displacement, we look at the changing environment from human perspective and predict the location of dwelling sitesat various times. As a result, two map series were produced that show how the landscape changed and where inhabitance is predicted. To back them up, we have also looked at what previous research says about the history of the waterways, climate, vegetation and archaeology. The changing landscape of the river valley is reconstructed using GIS methods. For this purpose, new laser point data set was used and at the same time tested in the context landscape modelling. Dwelling sites were modeled with logistic regression analysis. The spatial predictive model combines data on the locations of the known dwelling sites, environmental factors and shore displacement data. The predictions were visualised into raster maps that show the predictions for inhabitance 3000 and 5000 years ago. The aim of these maps was to help archaeologists map potential spots for human activity. The produced landscape reconstructions clarified previous shore displacement studies of the Mätäjoki region and provided new information on the location of shoreline. From the shore displacement history of the Mätäjoki Valley arise the following stages: 1. The northernmost hills of the Mätäjoki Valley rose from Ancylus Lake approximately 10000 years ago. Shore displacement was fast during the following thousand years. 2. The area was an archipelago with a relatively steady shoreline 9000 7000 years ago. 8000 years ago the shoreline drew back in the middle and southern parts of the river valley because of the transgression of the Litorina Sea. 3. Mätäjoki was a sheltered bay of the Litorina Sea 6000 5000 years ago. The Vantaanjoki River started to flow into the Mätäjoki Valley approximately 5000 years ago. 4. The sediment plains in the southern part of the river valley rose from the sea rather quickly 5000 3000 years ago. Salt water still pushed its way into the southermost part of the valley 4000 years ago. 5. The shoreline proceeded to Pitäjänmäki rapids where it stayed at least a thousand years 3000 2000 years ago. The predictive models managed to predict the locations of dwelling sites moderately well. The most accurate predictions were found on the eastern shore and Malminkartano area. Of the environment variables sand and aspect of slope were found to have the best predictive power. From the results of this study we can conclude that the Mätäjoki Valley has been a favorable location to live especially 6000 5000 years ago when the climate was mild and vegetation lush. The laser point data set used here works best in shore displacement studies located in rural areas or if further specific palaeogeographic or hydrologic analysis in the research area is not needed.

Appropriate Institutions and Economic Growth - one size fits no-one

Modern-day economics is increasingly biased towards believing that institutions matter for growth, an argument that has been further enforced by the recent economic crisis. There is also a wide consensus on what these growth-promoting institutions should look like, and countries are periodically ranked depending on how their institutional structure compares with the best-practice institutions, mostly in place in the developing world. In this paper, it is argued that ”non-desirable” or “second-best” institutions can be beneficial for fostering investment and thus providing a starting point for sustained growth, and that what matters is the appropriateness of institutions to the economy’s distance to the frontier or current phase of development. Anecdotal evidence from Japan and South-Korea is used as a motivation for studying the subject and a model is presented to describe this phenomenon. In the model, the rigidity or non-rigidity of the institutions is described by entrepreneurial selection. It is assumed that entrepreneurs are the ones taking part in the imitation and innovation of technologies, and that decisions on whether or not their projects are refinanced comes from capitalists. The capitalists in turn have no entrepreneurial skills and act merely as financers of projects. The model has two periods, and two kinds of entrepreneurs: those with high skills and those with low skills. The society’s choice of whether an imitation or innovation – based strategy is chosen is modeled as the trade-off between refinancing a low-skill entrepreneur or investing in the selection of the entrepreneurs resulting in a larger fraction of high-skill entrepreneurs with the ability to innovate but less total investment. Finally, a real-world example from India is presented as an initial attempt to test the theory. The data from the example is not included in this paper. It is noted that the model may be lacking explanatory power due to difficulties in testing the predictions, but that this should not be seen as a reason to disregard the theory – the solution might lie in developing better tools, not better just better theories. The conclusion presented is that institutions do matter. There is no one-size-fits-all-solution when it comes to institutional arrangements in different countries, and developing countries should be given space to develop their own institutional structures that cater to their specific needs.

Freezing of a colloidal liquid subject to shear flow

A nonequilibrium generalization of the density-functional theory of freezing is proposed to investigate the shear-induced first-order phase transition in colloidal suspensions. It is assumed that the main effect of a steady shear is to break the symmetry of the structure factor of the liquid and that for small shear rate, the phenomenon of a shear-induced order-disorder transition may be viewed as an equilibrium phase transition. The theory predicts that the effective density at which freezing takes place increases with shear rate. The solid (which is assumed to be a bcc lattice) formed upon freezing is distorted and specifically there is less order in one plane compared with the order in the other two perpendicular planes. It is shown that there exists a critical shear rate above which the colloidal liquid does not undergo a transition to an ordered (or partially ordered) state no matter how large the density is. Conversely, above the critical shear rate an initially formed bcc solid always melts into an amorphous or liquidlike state. Several of these predictions are in qualitative agreement with the light-scattering experiments of Ackerson and Clark. The limitations as well as possible extensions of the theory are also discussed.

Parametrized tests of post-Newtonian theory using Advanced LIGO and Einstein Telescope

General relativity has very specific predictions for the gravitational waveforms from inspiralling compact binaries obtained using the post-Newtonian (PN) approximation. We investigate the extent to which the measurement of the PN coefficients, possible with the second generation gravitational-wave detectors such as the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and the third generation gravitational-wave detectors such as the Einstein Telescope (ET), could be used to test post-Newtonian theory and to put bounds on a subclass of parametrized-post-Einstein theories which differ from general relativity in a parametrized sense. We demonstrate this possibility by employing the best inspiralling waveform model for nonspinning compact binaries which is 3.5PN accurate in phase and 3PN in amplitude. Within the class of theories considered, Advanced LIGO can test the theory at 1.5PN and thus the leading tail term. Future observations of stellar mass black hole binaries by ET can test the consistency between the various PN coefficients in the gravitational-wave phasing over the mass range of 11-44M(circle dot). The choice of the lower frequency cutoff is important for testing post-Newtonian theory using the ET. The bias in the test arising from the assumption of nonspinning binaries is indicated.

On the charging state of atmospheric aerosols and ion-induced nucleation

Floating in the air that surrounds us is a number of small particles, invisible to the human eye. The mixture of air and particles, liquid or solid, is called an aerosol. Aerosols have significant effects on air quality, visibility and health, and on the Earth's climate. Their effect on the Earth's climate is the least understood of climatically relevant effects. They can scatter the incoming radiation from the Sun, or they can act as seeds onto which cloud droplets are formed. Aerosol particles are created directly, by human activity or natural reasons such as breaking ocean waves or sandstorms. They can also be created indirectly as vapors or very small particles are emitted into the atmosphere and they combine to form small particles that later grow to reach climatically or health relevant sizes. The mechanisms through which those particles are formed is still under scientific discussion, even though this knowledge is crucial to make air quality or climate predictions, or to understand how aerosols will influence and will be influenced by the climate's feedback loops. One of the proposed mechanisms responsible for new particle formation is ion-induced nucleation. This mechanism is based on the idea that newly formed particles were ultimately formed around an electric charge. The amount of available charges in the atmosphere varies depending on radon concentrations in the soil and in the air, as well as incoming ionizing radiation from outer space. In this thesis, ion-induced nucleation is investigated through long-term measurements in two different environments: in the background site of Hyytiälä and in the urban site that is Helsinki. The main conclusion of this thesis is that ion-induced nucleation generally plays a minor role in new particle formation. The fraction of particles formed varies from day to day and from place to place. The relative importance of ion-induced nucleation, i.e. the fraction of particles formed through ion-induced nucleation, is bigger in cleaner areas where the absolute number of particles formed is smaller. Moreover, ion-induced nucleation contributes to a bigger fraction of particles on warmer days, when the sulfuric acid and water vapor saturation ratios are lower. This analysis will help to understand the feedbacks associated with climate change.

Irradiation effects in graphene and related materials

Nanomaterials with a hexagonally ordered atomic structure, e.g., graphene, carbon and boron nitride nanotubes, and white graphene (a monolayer of hexagonal boron nitride) possess many impressive properties. For example, the mechanical stiffness and strength of these materials are unprecedented. Also, the extraordinary electronic properties of graphene and carbon nanotubes suggest that these materials may serve as building blocks of next generation electronics. However, the properties of pristine materials are not always what is needed in applications, but careful manipulation of their atomic structure, e.g., via particle irradiation can be used to tailor the properties. On the other hand, inadvertently introduced defects can deteriorate the useful properties of these materials in radiation hostile environments, such as outer space. In this thesis, defect production via energetic particle bombardment in the aforementioned materials is investigated. The effects of ion irradiation on multi-walled carbon and boron nitride nanotubes are studied experimentally by first conducting controlled irradiation treatments of the samples using an ion accelerator and subsequently characterizing the induced changes by transmission electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. The usefulness of the characterization methods is critically evaluated and a damage grading scale is proposed, based on transmission electron microscopy images. Theoretical predictions are made on defect production in graphene and white graphene under particle bombardment. A stochastic model based on first-principles molecular dynamics simulations is used together with electron irradiation experiments for understanding the formation of peculiar triangular defect structures in white graphene. An extensive set of classical molecular dynamics simulations is conducted, in order to study defect production under ion irradiation in graphene and white graphene. In the experimental studies the response of carbon and boron nitride multi-walled nanotubes to irradiation with a wide range of ion types, energies and fluences is explored. The stabilities of these structures under ion irradiation are investigated, as well as the issue of how the mechanism of energy transfer affects the irradiation-induced damage. An irradiation fluence of 5.5x10^15 ions/cm^2 with 40 keV Ar+ ions is established to be sufficient to amorphize a multi-walled nanotube. In the case of 350 keV He+ ion irradiation, where most of the energy transfer happens through inelastic collisions between the ion and the target electrons, an irradiation fluence of 1.4x10^17 ions/cm^2 heavily damages carbon nanotubes, whereas a larger irradiation fluence of 1.2x10^18 ions/cm^2 leaves a boron nitride nanotube in much better condition, indicating that carbon nanotubes might be more susceptible to damage via electronic excitations than their boron nitride counterparts. An elevated temperature was discovered to considerably reduce the accumulated damage created by energetic ions in both carbon and boron nitride nanotubes, attributed to enhanced defect mobility and efficient recombination at high temperatures. Additionally, cobalt nanorods encapsulated inside multi-walled carbon nanotubes were observed to transform into spherical nanoparticles after ion irradiation at an elevated temperature, which can be explained by the inverse Ostwald ripening effect. The simulation studies on ion irradiation of the hexagonal monolayers yielded quantitative estimates on types and abundances of defects produced within a large range of irradiation parameters. He, Ne, Ar, Kr, Xe, and Ga ions were considered in the simulations with kinetic energies ranging from 35 eV to 10 MeV, and the role of the angle of incidence of the ions was studied in detail. A stochastic model was developed for utilizing the large amount of data produced by the molecular dynamics simulations. It was discovered that a high degree of selectivity over the types and abundances of defects can be achieved by carefully selecting the irradiation parameters, which can be of great use when precise pattering of graphene or white graphene using focused ion beams is planned.