Road safety issues for older road users : CARRS-Q Monograph 1

[Selection of papers from the Older Road User Safety Symposium, 26 November 2000, Brisbane, Australia.]----- This publication is a selection of papers on older road user safety which were presented at the Older Road User Safety Symposium on Sunday 26 November 2000 at the Sheraton Brisbane Hotel, Queensland, Australia. The Symposium was held on the day before Australia’s annual Road Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference, which provided an opportunity to garner both presenters and participants from the wider road safety community in Australia. Road safety is a large and diverse area of scholarship and practice, and many disciplines are drawn on in the processes of understanding and addressing road safety problems. The safety of older road users is no different. As this selection shows, work on older road user safety can be informed by demography, research on the mental and physical effects of ageing, social research on older people as road users, evaluation of educational and behavioural interventions, road crash analysis, engineering research and practice, and reviews of policy approaches within Australia and elsewhere. It is possible to summarise these into four constellations, which are reflected in the papers selected for this publication: social impacts and responses; physical and cognitive capability; specific road use performance; and environment/ecology. Though three years have passed since the Symposium, the issues raised in these papers remain current.

Detecting gesture force peaks for intuitive interaction

With the release of the Nintendo Wii in 2006, the use of haptic force gestures has become a very popular form of input for interactive entertainment. However, current gesture recognition techniques utilised in Nintendo Wii games fall prey to a lack of control when it comes to recognising simple gestures. This paper presents a simple gesture recognition technique called Peak Testing which gives greater control over gesture interaction. This recognition technique locates force peaks in continuous force data (provided by a gesture device such as the Wiimote) and then cancels any peaks which are not meant for input. Peak Testing is therefore technically able to identify movements in any direction. This paper applies this recognition technique to control virtual instruments and investigates how users respond to this interaction. The technique is then explored as the basis for a robust way to navigate menus with a simple flick of the wrist. We propose that this flick-form of interaction could be a very intuitive way to navigate Nintendo Wii menus instead of the current pointer techniques implemented.

The Metapopulation Dynamics of an Infectious Disease: Tuberculosis in Possums

An SEI metapopulation model is developed for the spread of an infectious agent by migration. The model portrays two age classes on a number of patches connected by migration routes which are used as host animals mature. A feature of this model is that the basic reproduction ratio may be computed directly, using a scheme that separates topography, demography, and epidemiology. We also provide formulas for individual patch basic reproduction numbers and discuss their connection with the basic reproduction ratio for the system. The model is applied to the problem of spatial spread of bovine tuberculosis in a possum population. The temporal dynamics of infection are investigated for some generic networks of migration links, and the basic reproduction ratio is computed—its value is not greatly different from that for a homogeneous model. Three scenarios are considered for the control of bovine tuberculosis in possums where the spatial aspect is shown to be crucial for the design of disease management operations

For blood, sweat and tears : the severing of subconscious connections with company and business model

Humans have altered environments and enhanced their well being unlike any other creature on the planet (Heilman & Donna, 2007); this is no different whether the environment is ecological, social or organisational. In recent times business modelling techniques have become intricately detailed in the pre-designing and evaluating of business flow before the final implementation (Ou-Yang & Lin, 2008). The importance of the organisation change and business process model is undeniable. The feedback received from real business process users is that the notation is easy to learn; the models do help people to understand the process better; the models can be used to improve the (business) process; and the notation is expressive enough to capture the essential information (Bennett, Doshi, Do Vale Junior, Kumar, Manikam, & Madavan, 2009).

Do planning regulations matter? : a comparison of South East Queensland and South Florida

At one level the urban landscapes of South Florida and South East Queensland look quite similar. However at another level the context of planning and planning control and regulation is quite different. To understand the contextual differences between South Florida and South East Queensland, four themes will be used, some of which were based on Cullingworth and Booth. The four themes include: demography, governance, the law and regulatory philosophy. After having evaluated South Florida and South East Queensland across these four themes, we propose a framework for examining whether these differences have shaped planning outcomes and in particular, the built form.

'Nothing exists for one cause' : putting biology back into evolution

The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.

Suicide rates in Shandong, China, 1991–2010 : rapid decrease in rural rates and steady increase in male–female ratio

Background China has one of the highest suicide rates in the world; however, the recent trends in suicide have not been adequately studied. This study aimed to examine the potential changes in the rates and characteristics in a Chinese population. Methods Data on suicide deaths in 1991–2010 were extracted from the Shandong Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) mortality dataset based on ICD-10 codes. The temporal trend in age-adjusted suicide rates for each subpopulation was tested using log-linear Poisson regression analysis. Results From 1991 to 2010, there was a marked decrease in the overall suicide rate in Shandong, with an average reduction of 8% per year. The decrease trend was stronger in rural than in urban areas and more evident in females than in males. Similar decreases were observed for all age groups. Pesticide ingestion and hanging remained the top two methods for suicide. Limitations There are likely quality concerns in the morality data, such as underreporting and misclassification, as well as low accuracy in determining the underlying causes of deaths. The representativeness of the DSP system may also be problematic due to the rapid changes in economy and demography. Conclusions Completed suicides in Shandong have sharply declined over the past 20 years. Higher rates in females versus males and in rural versus urban areas, which were previously considered to be distinguishing features of suicide in China, are becoming less pronounced.

Evolutionary genetics and human assisted movement of a globally invasive pest (Russian wheat aphid : Diuraphis noxia)

This PhD study has examined the population genetics of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA, Diuraphis noxia), one of the world’s most invasive agricultural pests, throughout its native and introduced global range. Firstly, this study investigated the geographic distribution of genetic diversity within and among RWA populations in western China. Analysis of mitochondrial data from 18 sites provided evidence for the long-term existence and expansion of RWAs in western China. The results refute the hypothesis that RWA is an exotic species only present in China since 1975. The estimated date of RWA expansion throughout western China coincides with the debut of wheat domestication and cultivation practices in western Asia in the Holocene. It is concluded that western China represents the limit of the far eastern native range of this species. Analysis of microsatellite data indicated high contemporary gene flow among northern populations in western China, while clear geographic isolation between northern and southern populations was identified across the Tianshan mountain range and extensive desert regions. Secondly, this study analyzed the worldwide pathway of invasion using both microsatellite and endosymbiont genetic data. Individual RWAs were obtained from native populations in Central Asia and the Middle East and invasive populations in Africa and the Americas. Results indicated two pathways of RWA invasion from 1) Syria in the Middle East to North Africa and 2) Turkey to South Africa, Mexico and then North and South America. Very little clone diversity was identified among invasive populations suggesting that a limited founder event occurred together with predominantly asexual reproduction and rapid population expansion. The most likely explanation for the rapid spread (within two years) from South Africa to the New World is by human movement, probably as a result of the transfer of wheat breeding material. Furthermore, the mitochondrial data revealed the presence of a universal haplotype and it is proposed that this haplotype is representative of a wheat associated super-clone that has gained dominance worldwide as a result of the widespread planting of domesticated wheat. Finally, this study examined salivary gland gene diversity to determine whether a functional basis for RWA invasiveness could be identified. Peroxidase DNA sequence data were obtained for a selection of worldwide RWA samples. Results demonstrated that most native populations were polymorphic while invasive populations were monomorphic, supporting previous conclusions relating to demographic founder effects in invasive populations. Purifying selection most likely explains the existence of a universal allele present in Middle Eastern populations, while balancing selection was evident in East Asian populations. Selection acting on the peroxidase gene may provide an allele-dependent advantage linked to the successful establishment of RWAs on wheat, and ultimately their invasion potential. In conclusion, this study is the most comprehensive molecular genetic investigation of RWA population genetics undertaken to date and provides significant insights into the source and pathway of global invasion and the potential existence of a wheat-adapted genotype that has colonised major wheat growing countries worldwide except for Australia. This research has major biosecurity implications for Australia’s grain industry.

Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

A single institution experience of streptozocin/fluorouracil combination chemotherapy : a case series

Background The combination chemotherapy regimen of streptozocin and 5-fluorouracil (FU/STZ) has been used for the treatment of metastatic neuroendocrine tumours. Aim The aim of this study was to analyse the use of this regimen in a tertiary oncology referral centre over a 10-year period. Method We retrospectively analysed nine cases from February 2000 to May 2010. Patient demographics, chemotherapy schedule, toxicities, progression-free and overall survival were tabulated for each patient. Result The median progression-free survival was 17 months (range 3-48+ months), and overall survival 31 months (range 12-53+ months) with no toxicity related deaths. Conclusion FU/STZ was a well-tolerated regimen that produced significant benefit in the setting of metastatic and progressive disease. Our case series demonstrated comparable progression-free survival and overall survival in relation to randomized controlled studies and previous case series. © Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland 2011.

Cyber security of networked critical infrastructures [Guest Editorial]

A new era of cyber warfare has appeared on the horizon with the discovery and detection of Stuxnet. Allegedly planned, designed, and created by the United States and Israel, Stuxnet is considered the first known cyber weapon to attack an adversary state. Stuxnet's discovery put a lot of attention on the outdated and obsolete security of critical infrastructure. It became very apparent that electronic devices that are used to control and operate critical infrastructure like programmable logic controllers (PLCs) or supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems lack very basic security and protection measures. Part of that is due to the fact that when these devices were designed, the idea of exposing them to the Internet was not in mind. However, now with this exposure, these devices and systems are considered easy prey to adversaries.

Parent's socio-economic status and social support as risks for child mortality : consideration of health equity in The Gambia

A matched case-control study of mortality to children under age five was conducted to consider associations with parents' socio-economic status and social support in the Farafenni Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS). Cases and controls were selected from Farafenni DSS, matched on date of birth, and parents were interviewed about personal resources and social networks. Parents with the lowest personal socio-economic status and social support were identified. Multivariate multinomial regression was used to consider whether the children of these parents were at increased risk of either infant or 1-4 mortality, in separate models using either parents' characteristics. There was no benefit found for higher SES or better social support with respect to child mortality. Children of fathers who had the poorest social support had lower 1-4 mortality risk (OR=0.52, p=0.037). Given that socio-economic status was not associated with child mortality, it seems unlikely that the explanation for the link between father's social support and mortality is linked to resource availability. Explanations for the risk effect of father's social ties may lie in decision-making around health maintenance and health care for children.

The topography of multiple drug use among adolescent Australians : findings from the National Drug Strategy Household Survey

Introduction and aims: Despite evidence that many Australian adolescents have considerable experience with various drug types, little is known about the extent to which adolescents use multiple substances. The aim of this study was to examine the degree of clustering of drug types within individuals, and the extent to which demographic and psychosocial predictors are related to cluster membership. Design and method: A sample of 1402 adolescents aged 12-17. years were extracted from the Australian 2007 National Drug Strategy Household Survey. Extracted data included lifetime use of 10 substances, gender, psychological distress, physical health, perceived peer substance use, socioeconomic disadvantage, and regionality. Latent class analysis was used to determine clusters, and multinomial logistic regression employed to examine predictors of cluster membership. Result: There were 3 latent classes. The great majority (79.6%) of adolescents used alcohol only, 18.3% were limited range multidrug users (encompassing alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana), and 2% were extended range multidrug users. Perceived peer drug use and psychological distress predicted limited and extended multiple drug use. Psychological distress was a more significant predictor of extended multidrug use compared to limited multidrug use. Discussion and conclusion: In the Australian school-based prevention setting, a very strong focus on alcohol use and the linkages between alcohol, tobacco and marijuana are warranted. Psychological distress may be an important target for screening and early intervention for adolescents who use multiple drugs.