Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball

The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

Factors affecting partitioning of private forest holdings in Finland.

Questions of the small size of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) holdings in Finland are considered and factors affecting their partitioning are analyzed. This work arises out of Finnish forest policy statements in which the small average size of holdings has been seen to have a negative influence on the economics of forestry. A survey of the literature indicates that the size of holdings is an important factor determining the costs of logging and silvicultural operations, while its influence on the timber supply is slight. The empirical data are based on a sample of 314 holdings collected by interviewing forest owners in the years 1980-86. In 1990-91 the same holdings were resurveyed by means of a postal inquiry and partly by interviewing forest owners. The principal objective in compiling the data is to assist in quantifying ownership factors that influence partitioning among different kinds of NIPF holdings. Thus the mechanism of partitioning were described and a maximum likelihood logistic regression model was constructed using seven independent holding and ownership variables. One out of four holdings had undergone partitioning in conjunction with a change in ownership, one fifth among family owned holdings and nearly a half among jointly owned holdings. The results of the logistic regression model indicate, for instance, that the odds on partitioning is about three times greater for jointly owned holdings than for family owned ones. Also, the probabilities of partitioning were estimated and the impact of independent dichotomous variables on the probability of partitioning ranged between 0.02 and 0.10. The low value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic indicates a good fit of the model and the rate of correct classification was estimated to be 88 per cent with a cutoff point of 0.5. The average size of holdings undergoing ownership changes decreased from 29.9 ha to 28.7 ha over the approximate interval 1983-90. In addition, the transition probability matrix showed that the trends towards smaller size categories mostly involved in the small size categories, less than 20 ha. The results of the study can be used in considering the effects of the small size of holdings for forestry and if the purpose is to influence partitioning through forest or rural policy.

Relative Contribution of Cell Proliferation and Microvascularity to Metastasis in Malignant Uveal Melanoma

Uveal melanoma (UM) is the second most common primary intraocular cancer worldwide. It is a relatively rare cancer, but still the second most common type of primary malignant melanoma in humans. UM is a slowly growing tumor, and gives rise to distant metastasis mainly to the liver via the bloodstream. About 40% of patients with UM die of metastatic disease within 10 years of diagnosis, irrespective of the type of treatment. During the last decade, two main lines of research have aimed to achieve enhanced understanding of the metastasis process and accurate prognosis of patients with UM. One emphasizes the characteristics of tumor cells, particularly their nucleoli, and markers of proliferation, and the other the characteristics of tumor blood vessels. Of several morphometric measurements, the mean diameter of the ten largest nucleoli (MLN) has become the most widely applied. A large MLN has consistently been associated with high likelihood of dying from UM. Blood vessels are of paramount importance in metastasis of UM. Different extravascular matrix patterns can be seen in UM, like loops and networks. This presence is associated with death from metastatic melanoma. However, the density of microvessels is also of prognostic importance. This study was undertaken to help understanding some histopathological factors which might contribute to developing metastasis in UM patients. Factors which could be related to tumor progression to metastasis disease, namely nucleolar size, MLN, microvascular density (MVD), cell proliferation, and The Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 Receptor(IGF-1R), were investigated. The primary aim of this thesis was to study the relationship between prognostic factors such as tumor cell nucleolar size, proliferation, extravascular matrix patterns, and dissemination of UM, and to assess to what extent there is a relationship to metastasis. The secondary goal was to develop a multivariate model which includes MLN and cell proliferation in addition to MVD, and which would fit better with population-based, melanoma-related survival data than previous models. I studied 167 patients with UM, who developed metastasis even after a very long time following removal of the eye, metastatic disease was the main cause of death, as documented in the Finnish Cancer Registry and on death certificates. Using an independent population-based data set, it was confirmed that MLN and extravascular matrix loops and networks were unrelated, independent predictors of survival in UM. Also, it has been found that multivariate models including MVD in addition to MLN fitted significantly better with survival data than models which excluded MVD. This supports the idea that both the characteristics of the blood vessels and the cells are important, and the future direction would be to look for the gene expression profile, whether it is associated more with MVD or MLN. The former relates to the host response to the tumor and may not be as tightly associated with the gene expression profile, yet most likely involved in the process of hematogenous metastasis. Because fresh tumor material is needed for reliable genetic analysis, such analysis could not be performed Although noninvasive detection of certain extravascular matrix patterns is now technically possible,in managing patients with UM, this study and tumor genetics suggest that such noninvasive methods will not fully capture the process of clinical metastasis. Progress in resection and biopsy techniques is likely in the near future to result in fresh material for the ophthalmic pathologist to correlate angiographic data, histopathological characteristics such as MLN, and genetic data. This study supported the theory that tumors containing epithelioid cells grow faster and have poorer prognosis when studied by cell proliferation in UM based on Ki-67 immunoreactivity. Cell proliferation index fitted best with the survival data when combined with MVD, MLN, and presence of epithelioid cells. Analogous with the finding that high MVD in primary UM is associated with shorter time to metastasis than low MVD, high MVD in hepatic metastasis tends to be associated with shorter survival after diagnosis of metastasis. Because the liver is the main organ for metastasis from UM, growth factors largely produced in the liver hepatocyte growth factor, epidermal growth factor and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) together with their receptors may have a role in the homing and survival of metastatic cells. Therefore the association between immunoreactivity for IGF-1R in primary UM and metastatic death was studied. It was found that immunoreactivity for IGF-IR did not independently predict metastasis from primary UM in my series.

Estimation of soil hydraulic properties and their uncertainty: comparison between laboratory and field experiment

Often the soil hydraulic parameters are obtained by the inversion of measured data (e.g. soil moisture, pressure head, and cumulative infiltration, etc.). However, the inverse problem in unsaturated zone is ill-posed due to various reasons, and hence the parameters become non-unique. The presence of multiple soil layers brings the additional complexities in the inverse modelling. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate (GLUE) is a useful approach to estimate the parameters and their uncertainty when dealing with soil moisture dynamics which is a highly non-linear problem. Because the estimated parameters depend on the modelling scale, inverse modelling carried out on laboratory data and field data may provide independent estimates. The objective of this paper is to compare the parameters and their uncertainty estimated through experiments in the laboratory and in the field and to assess which of the soil hydraulic parameters are independent of the experiment. The first two layers in the field site are characterized by Loamy sand and Loamy. The mean soil moisture and pressure head at three depths are measured with an interval of half hour for a period of 1 week using the evaporation method for the laboratory experiment, whereas soil moisture at three different depths (60, 110, and 200 cm) is measured with an interval of 1 h for 2 years for the field experiment. A one-dimensional soil moisture model on the basis of the finite difference method was used. The calibration and validation are approximately for 1 year each. The model performance was found to be good with root mean square error (RMSE) varying from 2 to 4 cm(3) cm(-3). It is found from the two experiments that mean and uncertainty in the saturated soil moisture (theta(s)) and shape parameter (n) of van Genuchten equations are similar for both the soil types. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Application of nonlinear filtering to credit risk

Merton's model views equity as a call option on the asset of the firm. Thus the asset is partially observed through the equity. Then using nonlinear filtering an explicit expression for likelihood ratio for underlying parameters in terms of the nonlinear filter is obtained. As the evolution of the filter itself depends on the parameters in question, this does not permit direct maximum likelihood estimation, but does pave the way for the `Expectation-Maximization' method for estimating parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random-Restart Reactive Tabu Search Algorithm for Detection in Large-MIMO Systems

We present a low-complexity algorithm based on reactive tabu search (RTS) for near maximum likelihood (ML) detection in large-MIMO systems. The conventional RTS algorithm achieves near-ML performance for 4-QAM in large-MIMO systems. But its performance for higher-order QAM is far from ML performance. Here, we propose a random-restart RTS (R3TS) algorithm which achieves significantly better bit error rate (BER) performance compared to that of the conventional RTS algorithm in higher-order QAM. The key idea is to run multiple tabu searches, each search starting with a random initial vector and choosing the best among the resulting solution vectors. A criterion to limit the number of searches is also proposed. Computer simulations show that the R3TS algorithm achieves almost the ML performance in 16 x 16 V-BLAST MIMO system with 16-QAM and 64-QAM at significantly less complexities than the sphere decoder. Also, in a 32 x 32 V-BLAST MIMO system, the R3TS performs close to ML lower bound within 1.6 dB for 16-QAM (128 bps/Hz), and within 2.4 dB for 64-QAM (192 bps/Hz) at 10(-3) BER.

Migration-Development Nexus in the Malawian Health Sector: European Union Blue Card – circular migration for development?

The European Union has agreed on implementing the Policy Coherence for Development (PCD) principle in all policy sectors that are likely to have a direct impact on developing countries. This is in order to take account of and support the EU development cooperation objectives and the achievement of the internationally agreed Millennium Development Goals. The common EU migration policy and the newly introduced EU Blue Card directive present an example of the implementation of the principle in practice: the directive is not only designed to respond to the occurring EU labour demand by attracting highly skilled third-country professionals, but is also intended to contribute to the development objectives of the migrant-sending developing countries, primarily through the tool of circular migration and the consequent skills transfers. My objective in this study is to assess such twofold role of the EU Blue Card and to explore the idea that migration could be harnessed for the benefit of development in conformity with the notion that the two form a positive nexus. Seeing that the EU Blue Card fails to differentiate the most vulnerable countries and sectors from those that are in a better position to take advantage of the global migration flows, the developmental consequences of the directive must be accounted for even in the most severe settings. Accordingly, my intention is to question whether circular migration, as claimed, could address the problem of brain drain in the Malawian health sector, which has witnessed an excessive outflow of its professionals to the UK during the past decade. In order to assess the applicability, likelihood and relevance of circular migration and consequent skills transfers for development in the Malawian context, a field study of a total of 23 interviews with local health professionals was carried out in autumn 2010. The selected approach not only allows me to introduce a developing country perspective to the on-going discussion at the EU level, but also enables me to assess the development dimension of the EU Blue Card and the intended PCD principle through a local lens. Thus these interviews and local viewpoints are at the very heart of this study. Based on my findings from the field, the propensity of the EU Blue Card to result in circular migration and to address the persisting South-North migratory flows as well as the relevance of skills transfers can be called to question. This is as due to the bias in its twofold role the directive overlooks the importance of the sending country circumstances, which are known to determine any developmental outcomes of migration, and assumes that circular migration alone could bring about immediate benefits. Without initial emphasis on local conditions, however, positive outcomes for vulnerable countries such as Malawi are ever more distant. Indeed it seems as if the EU internal interests in migration policy forbid the fulfilment of the PCD principle and diminish the attempt to harness migration for development to bare rhetoric.

The Role of Electronic Word of Mouth in Shaping Consumer Attitudes

The purpose of this research was to investigate the role of electronic word of mouth (eWOM) in shaping consumer attitudes towards various products and services with concentration on the consumer attitude change. eWOM has long been proven to play an important role in influencing consumer attitudes and has been researched from a variety of perspectives. This study attempts to look deeper into the process of consumer attitude change by applying as the central theory of the study the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion by Petty and Cacioppo. In the processes of examining the background academic and empirical research the Internet and Web 2.0 are closely depicted in order to understand how throughout the past centuries technology allowed the rise of various mediums where consumers can not only share their opinions online about products and services but also communicate with other consumers. Manuel Castel’s Internet Galaxy, Gildin’s, Carl and Noland’s, Hennig-Thurau, Gwinner, Walsh and Gremler’s researches on eWOM are the central works that helped to shape both the theoretical and empirical parts of this study. The mixed method approach was chosen as a research method for this study. An online survey was conducted via the Surveymonkey.com platform and eight qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted. The results of the study show that central route queues as text quality and text argumentativeness are more prominent among the research subjects and the peripheral route queues: source credibility and source expertise did not show considerable significance. Also more experience and participation consumers have with user-rating websites and applications more inclined they are to elaborate on the central route cues and are more likely to search for opinions that they consider rational and credible. Also these respondents are less inclined to search for ratings that confirm their existing beliefs about products or services. Less experience/participation they have about eWOM more likely they are to search for reviews confirmatory to their own.

On Two-User Gaussian Multiple Access Channels With Finite Input Constellations

Constellation Constrained (CC) capacity regions of two-user Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) Gaussian Multiple Access Channels (GMAC) are computed for several Non-Orthogonal Multiple Access schemes (NO-MA) and Orthogonal Multiple Access schemes (O-MA). For NO-MA schemes, a metric is proposed to compute the angle(s) of rotation between the input constellations such that the CC capacity regions are maximally enlarged. Further, code pairs based on Trellis Coded Modulation (TCM) are designed with PSK constellation pairs and PAM constellation pairs such that any rate pair within the CC capacity region can be approached. Such a NO-MA scheme which employs CC capacity approaching trellis codes is referred to as Trellis Coded Multiple Access (TCMA). Then, CC capacity regions of O-MA schemes such as Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA) and Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) are also computed and it is shown that, unlike the Gaussian distributed continuous constellations case, the CC capacity regions with FDMA are strictly contained inside the CC capacity regions with TCMA. Hence, for finite constellations, a NO-MA scheme such as TCMA is better than FDMA and TDMA which makes NO-MA schemes worth pursuing in practice for two-user GMAC. Then, the idea of introducing rotations between the input constellations is used to construct Space-Time Block Code (STBC) pairs for two-user Multiple-Input Single-Output (MISO) fading MAC. The proposed STBCs are shown to have reduced Maximum Likelihood (ML) decoding complexity and information-losslessness property. Finally, STBC pairs with reduced sphere decoding complexity are proposed for two-user Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) fading MAC.

Bayesian Decentralized Spectrum Sensing in Cognitive Radio Networks

This paper considers the problem of spectrum sensing, i.e., the detection of whether or not a primary user is transmitting data by a cognitive radio. The Bayesian framework is adopted, with the performance measure being the probability of detection error. A decentralized setup, where N sensors use M observations each to arrive at individual decisions that are combined at a fusion center to form the overall decision is considered. The unknown fading channel between the primary sensor and the cognitive radios makes the individual decision rule computationally complex, hence, a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT)-based approach is adopted. Analysis of the probabilities of false alarm and miss detection of the proposed method reveals that the error exponent with respect to M is zero. Also, the fusion of N individual decisions offers a diversity advantage, similar to diversity reception in communication systems, and a tight bound on the error exponent is presented. Through an analysis in the low power regime, the number of observations needed as a function of received power, to achieve a given probability of error is determined. Monte-Carlo simulations confirm the accuracy of the analysis.

High-Rate Space-Time Coded Large MIMO Systems: Low-Complexity Detection and Performance

Large MIMO systems with tens of antennas in each communication terminal using full-rate non-orthogonal space-time block codes (STBC) from Cyclic Division Algebras (CDA) can achieve the benefits of both transmit diversity as well as high spectral efficiencies. Maximum-likelihood (ML) or near-ML decoding of these large-sized STBCs at low complexities, however, has been a challenge. In this paper, we establish that near-ML decoding of these large STBCs is possible at practically affordable low complexities. We show that the likelihood ascent search (LAS) detector, reported earlier by us for V-BLAST, is able to achieve near-ML uncoded BER performance in decoding a 32x32 STBC from CDA, which employs 32 transmit antennas and sends 32(2) = 1024 complex data symbols in 32 time slots in one STBC matrix (i.e., 32 data symbols sent per channel use). In terms of coded BER, with a 16x16 STBC, rate-3/4 turbo code and 4-QAM (i.e., 24 bps/Hz), the LAS detector performs close to within just about 4 dB from the theoretical MIMO capacity. Our results further show that, with LAS detection, information lossless (ILL) STBCs perform almost as good as full-diversity ILL (FD-ILL) STBCs. Such low-complexity detectors can potentially enable implementation of high spectral efficiency large MIMO systems that could be considered in wireless standards.

Layered Tabu Search Algorithm for Large-MIMO Detection and a Lower Bound on ML Performance

In this paper, we are concerned with low-complexity detection in large multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems with tens of transmit/receive antennas. Our new contributions in this paper are two-fold. First, we propose a low-complexity algorithm for large-MIMO detection based on a layered low-complexity local neighborhood search. Second, we obtain a lower bound on the maximum-likelihood (ML) bit error performance using the local neighborhood search. The advantages of the proposed ML lower bound are i) it is easily obtained for MIMO systems with large number of antennas because of the inherent low complexity of the search algorithm, ii) it is tight at moderate-to-high SNRs, and iii) it can be tightened at low SNRs by increasing the number of symbols in the neighborhood definition. Interestingly, the proposed detection algorithm based on the layered local search achieves bit error performances which are quite close to this lower bound for large number of antennas and higher-order QAM. For e. g., in a 32 x 32 V-BLAST MIMO system, the proposed detection algorithm performs close to within 1.7 dB of the proposed ML lower bound at 10(-3) BER for 16-QAM (128 bps/Hz), and close to within 4.5 dB of the bound for 64-QAM (192 bps/Hz).

Low-Complexity Detection and Performance in Multi-Gigabit High Spectral Efficiency Wireless Systems

Recently, we reported a low-complexity likelihood ascent search (LAS) detection algorithm for large MIMO systems with several tens of antennas that can achieve high spectral efficiencies of the order of tens to hundreds of bps/Hz. Through simulations, we showed that this algorithm achieves increasingly near SISO AWGN performance for increasing number of antennas in Lid. Rayleigh fading. However, no bit error performance analysis of the algorithm was reported. In this paper, we extend our work on this low-complexity large MIMO detector in two directions: i) We report an asymptotic bit error probability analysis of the LAS algorithm in the large system limit, where N-t, N-r -> infinity keeping N-t = N-r, where N-t and N-r are the number of transmit and receive antennas, respectively. Specifically, we prove that the error performance of the LAS detector for V-BLAST with 4-QAM in i.i.d. Rayleigh fading converges to that of the maximum-likelihood (ML) detector as N-t, N-r -> infinity keeping N-t = N-r ii) We present simulated BER and nearness to capacity results for V-BLAST as well as high-rate non-orthogonal STBC from Division Algebras (DA), in a more realistic spatially correlated MIMO channel model. Our simulation results show that a) at an uncoded BER of 10(-3), the performance of the LAS detector in decoding 16 x 16 STBC from DA with N-t = = 16 and 16-QAM degrades in spatially correlated fading by about 7 dB compared to that in i.i.d. fading, and 19) with a rate-3/4 outer turbo code and 48 bps/Hz spectral efficiency, the performance degrades by about 6 dB at a coded BER of 10(-4). Our results further show that providing asymmetry in number of antennas such that N-r > N-t keeping the total receiver array length same as that for N-r = N-t, the detector is able to pick up the extra receive diversity thereby significantly improving the BER performance.

MIMO Precoding With X- and Y- Codes

We consider a slow fading multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) system with channel state information at both the transmitter and receiver. A well-known precoding scheme is based upon the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the channel matrix, which transforms the MIMO channel into parallel subchannels. Despite having low maximum likelihood decoding (MLD) complexity, this SVD precoding scheme provides a diversity gain which is limited by the diversity gain of the weakest subchannel. We therefore propose X- and Y-Codes, which improve the diversity gain of the SVD precoding scheme but maintain the low MLD complexity, by jointly coding information across a pair of subchannels. In particular, subchannels with high diversity gain are paired with those having low diversity gain. A pair of subchannels is jointly encoded using a 2 2 real matrix, which is fixed a priori and does not change with each channel realization. For X-Codes, these rotation matrices are parameterized by a single angle, while for Y-Codes, these matrices are left triangular matrices. Moreover, we propose X-, Y-Precoders with the same structure as X-, Y-Codes, but with encoding matrices adapted to each channel realization. We observed that X-Codes/Precoders are good for well-conditioned channels, while Y-Codes/Precoders are good for ill-conditioned channels.

Training-Embedded, Single-Symbol ML-Decodable, Distributed STBCs for Relay Networks

Recently, a special class of complex designs called Training-Embedded Complex Orthogonal Designs (TE-CODs) has been introduced to construct single-symbol Maximum Likelihood decodable (SSD) distributed space-time block codes (DSTBCs) for two-hop wireless relay networks using the amplify and forward protocol. However, to implement DSTBCs from square TE-CODs, the overhead due to the transmission of training symbols becomes prohibitively large as the number of relays increase. In this paper, we propose TE-Coordinate Interleaved Orthogonal Designs (TE-CIODs) to construct SSD DSTBCs. Exploiting the block diagonal structure of TE-CIODs, we show that the overhead due to the transmission of training symbols to implement DSTBCs from TE-CIODs is smaller than that for TE-CODs. We also show that DSTBCs from TE-CIODs offer higher rate than those from TE-CODs for identical number of relays while maintaining the SSD and full-diversity properties.