Ocular exposure to UV-B in sunlight: the Melbourne Visual Impairment Project model

Quantification of ocular exposure to ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B) has become an important public health issue, with reports that the ozone layer is being depleted worldwide. Ocular exposure to UV-B is determined by ambient UV-B levels, the duration of outdoor exposure, the proportion of ambient UV-B that reaches the eye, and the use of ocular protection. We have developed a simplified model for quantifying lifetime ocular UV-B exposure that can be used in large epidemiological surveys. Exposure to UV-B is assessed and quantified using a model based on personal exposure over the six summer months. Data available for a population-based sample of 1150 people in the age range 40-98 years revealed a distribution in average annual lifetime ocular UV-B exposure similar to that reported in a previous study on which this model is based, and also demonstrate that people can recall lifetime personal behaviour related to ocular protection. It takes 12 minutes on average to collect these data. This model can be employed by researchers worldwide for uniform assessment of ocular UV-B exposure.

Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers

A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of simulated grey discharges includes an assigned percentage of observed discharge values and is at the same time as narrow as possible. The approach is applied to a real case study highlighting that a rigorous application of the procedure for direct simulation through the rainfall-runoff model with grey parameters involves long computational times. However, these times can be significantly reduced using a simplified computing procedure with minimal approximations in the quantification of the grey numbers representing the simulated discharges. Relying on this simplified procedure, the conceptual rainfall-runoff grey model is thus calibrated and the uncertainty bands obtained both downstream of the calibration process and downstream of the validation process are compared with those obtained by using a well-established approach, like the GLUE approach, for characterizing uncertainty. The results of the comparison show that the proposed approach may represent a valid tool for characterizing the global uncertainty associable with the output of a rainfall-runoff simulation model.

Ensaio sobre o agente racional: esparadrapos para um paciente terminal?

The Rational Agent model have been a foundational basis for theoretical models such as Economics, Management Science, Artificial Intelligence and Game Theory, mainly by the ¿maximization under constraints¿ principle, e.g. the ¿Expected Utility Models¿, among them, the Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) Theory, from Savage, placed as most influence player over theoretical models we¿ve seen nowadays, even though many other developments have been done, indeed also in non-expected utility theories field. Having the ¿full rationality¿ assumption, going for a less idealistic sight ¿bounded rationality¿ of Simon, or for classical anomalies studies, such as the ¿heuristics and bias¿ analysis by Kahneman e Tversky, ¿Prospect Theory¿ also by Kahneman & Tversky, or Thaler¿s Anomalies, and many others, what we can see now is that Rational Agent Model is a ¿Management by Exceptions¿ example, as for each new anomalies¿s presentation, in sequence, a ¿problem solving¿ development is needed. This work is a theoretical essay, which tries to understand: 1) The rational model as a ¿set of exceptions¿; 2) The actual situation unfeasibility, since once an anomalie is identified, we need it¿s specific solution developed, and since the number of anomalies increases every year, making strongly difficult to manage rational model; 3) That behaviors judged as ¿irrationals¿ or deviated, by the Rational Model, are truly not; 4) That¿s the right moment to emerge a Theory including mental processes used in decision making; and 5) The presentation of an alternative model, based on some cognitive and experimental psychology analysis, such as conscious and uncounscious processes, cognition, intuition, analogy-making, abstract roles, and others. Finally, we present conclusions and future research, that claims for deeper studies in this work¿s themes, for mathematical modelling, and studies about a rational analysis and cognitive models possible integration. .

A estratégia geral de tecnologia da informação da administração pública federal sob a ótica de seus gestores

O estudo tem por escopo analisar a percepção dos gestores públicos sobre a estratégia geral de tecnologia da informação (TI) formulada pelo Ministério do Planejamento, Orçamento e Gestão (MPOG) para a Administração Pública Federal, e que mudanças foram por esta determinada na estrutura das organizações públicas. A investigação compreendeu a análise de dados qualitativos, mediante a realização de entrevistas junto aos gestores públicos que atuam em órgãos setoriais na implantação direta das ações de TI. O foco principal foi a avaliação do aprimoramento quali-quantitativo dos recursos humanos na área de TI, considerando uma gestão democrática, participativa, transparente e ética, com base em processos de discussão e na promoção da cidadania. Constatou-se que, mesmo após mais de 02 (dois) anos de sua criação, a estratégia geral de TI foi insuficiente em promover um modelo de descentralização, com delegação de poderes, atribuições e responsabilidades para os escalões inferiores, não tendo sido possível perceber qualquer flexibilização organizacional orientada pelo comprometimento da gestão pública com processos democráticos vinculados ao interesse social.

Adequando práticas e modelos de gestão bem sucedidos ao Programa Netuno: a implementação do balanced scorecard

Há tempo busca-se um aperfeiçoamento do aparelho estatal no Brasil e, ao longo dos anos. os governos que se sucedem no poder vêm buscando alternativas para melhorar a eficiência do Estado. Mais recentemente, no Governo do Presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, foi instituído o Programa Nacional de Gestão Pública e Desburocratização (Gespública), que incentiva órgãos públicos a implementarem sistemas de gestão, participando de um processo de avaliação com premiações para as melhores práticas gerenciais voltadas à qualidade dos serviços aos cidadãos. No âmbito da Marinha do Brasil o Programa foi adaptado às peculiaridade da Força e nasceu, assim, o Programa Netuno que visa à institucionalização de boas práticas de gestão, permitindo que as organizações da Marinha do Brasil busquem a melhoria contínua dos processos inerentes a suas atividades. Uma das ferramentas que se pretende incorporar ao Programa é o Balanced Scorecard, geralmente utilizado na gestão estratégica e na avaliação do desempenho de organizações. Portanto, com a finalidade de contribuir para o aprimoramento da eficiência da gestão das Organizações Militares da Marinha do Brasil, este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar as vantagens, desvantagens e dificuldades da implementação do Modelo de Gestão Balanced Scorecard (BSC), tomando como base as experiências bem sucedidas de outras organizações da iniciativa privada e pública, bem como do Exército Brasileiro, que já implementaram e utilizam o modelo.

The influence of the supply chain agents on the new product development's performance: an analysis based on the multi-group moderation

Este estudo buscou verificar a influencia dos agentes da cadeia de suprimentos no desempenho do desenvolvimento de novos produtos quando os agentes são analisados em conjunto. A motivação desta pesquisa veio de estudos que alertaram para a consideração da integração da cadeia de suprimentos como um constructo multidimensional, englobando o envolvimento da manufatura, fornecedores e clientes no desenvolvimento de novos produtos; e devido à falta de informação sobre as influencias individuais destes agentes no desenvolvimento de novos produtos. Sob essas considerações, buscou-se construir um modelo analítico baseado na Teoria do Capital Social e Capacidade Absortiva, construir hipóteses a partir da revisão da literatura e conectar constructos como cooperação, envolvimento do fornecedor no desenvolvimento de novos produtos (DNP), envolvimento do cliente no DNP, envolvimento da manufatura no DNP, antecipação de novas tecnologias, melhoria contínua, desempenho operacional do DNP, desempenho de mercado do NPD e desempenho de negócio do DNP. Para testar as hipóteses foram consideradas três variáveis moderadoras, tais como turbulência ambiental (baixa, média e alta), indústria (eletrônicos, maquinários e equipamentos de transporte) e localização (América, Europa e Ásia). Para testar o modelo foram usados dados do projeto High Performance Manufacturing que contém 339 empresas das indústrias de eletrônicos, maquinários e equipamentos de transporte, localizadas em onze países. As hipóteses foram testadas por meio da Análise Fatorial Confirmatória (AFC) incluindo a moderação muti-grupo para as três variáveis moderadoras mencionadas anteriormente. Os principais resultados apontaram que as hipóteses relacionadas com cooperação foram confirmadas em ambientes de média turbulência, enquanto as hipóteses relacionadas ao desempenho no DNP foram confirmadas em ambientes de baixa turbulência ambiental e em países asiáticos. Adicionalmente, sob as mesmas condições, fornecedores, clientes e manufatura influenciam diferentemente no desempenho de novos produtos. Assim, o envolvimento de fornecedores influencia diretamente no desempenho operacional e indiretamente no desempenho de mercado e de negócio em baixos níveis de turbulência ambiental, na indústria de equipamentos de transporte em países da Americanos e Europeus. De igual forma, o envolvimento do cliente influenciou diretamente no desempenho operacional e indiretamente no desempenho de mercado e do negócio em médio nível de turbulência ambiental, na indústria de maquinários e em países Asiáticos. Fornecedores e clientes não influenciam diretamente no desempenho de mercado e do negócio e não influenciam indiretamente no desempenho operacional. O envolvimento da manufatura não influenciou nenhum tipo de desempenho do desenvolvimento de novos produtos em todos os cenários testados.

Open innovation and the challenges of human resource management

This paper considers challenges of Human Resource Management (HRM) in Open Innovation processes. It examines which strategies managers used to overcome these problems in the case of the Brazilian Oil and Gas company Petrobras. By conducting an inductive case study it develops a contextual model based on the use of grounded theory. It argues that the most important categories were to overcome problems of (a) the interpersonal relationship, (b) power shifting inside the organization, and (c) making people more valuable to the organization and shows how managers tackled these challenges. It contributes with a deep analysis of HRM challenges in Open Innovation that is important for a better understanding of management problems that can come along with Open Innovation processes.

A unified model for the long and high jump

A simple model based on, the maximum energy that an athlete can produce in a small time interval is used to describe the high and long jump. Conservation of angular momentum is used to explain why an athlete should, run horizontally to perform a vertical jump. Our results agree with world records. (c) 2005 American Association of Physics Teachers.

Temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after conventional and reduced tillage described by an exponential decay in time model

A quantificação do impacto das práticas de preparo sobre as perdas de carbono do solo é dependente da habilidade de se descrever a variabilidade temporal da emissão de CO2 do solo após preparo. Tem sido sugerido que as grandes quantidades de CO2 emitido após o preparo do solo podem servir como um indicador das modificações nos estoques de carbono do solo em longo termo. Neste trabalho é apresentado um modelo de duas partes baseado na temperatura e na umidade do solo e que inclui um termo exponencial decrescente do tempo que é eficiente no ajuste das emissões intermediárias após preparo: arado de disco seguido de uma passagem com a grade niveladora (convencional) e escarificador de arrasto seguido da passagem com rolo destorroador (reduzido). As emissões após o preparo do solo são descritas utilizando-se estimativa não linear com um coeficiente de determinação (R²) tão alto quanto 0.98 após preparo reduzido. Os resultados indicam que nas previsões da emissão de CO2 após o preparo do solo é importante considerar um termo exponencial decrescente no tempo após preparo.

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gestão de organizações sem fins lucrativos: uma avaliação de desempenho através do balanced scorecard

The methodology Balanced Scorecard (BSC) focuses on the major critical issues of modern organizations, whether with or without profit. The measurement of the effective performance of the latter is by evaluating the successful implementation of organizational strategy. The aim of this paper is to present the development of a system of performance measurement strategy for a nonprofit organization, whose object of study is the Associação de Apoio as Comunidades do Campo - AACC, in the context of the BSC methodology of Kaplan and Norton. The methodology of this case study is an exploratory, descriptive and qualitative, and diagnose the coherence of the Strategy Map in an organization, based strategic planning from 2010 to 2012. Initially conducted a literature review covering the main aspects of strategy maps and performance evaluation involving the translation of the BSC and strategy evaluation. The main results of the proposed approach refers to evaluation of overall scores for each dimension of the BSC methodology, financial, customer, internal processes, learning and growth. These results are able to help the organization evaluate and revise their strategy and, in general, to adopt management methods more accurately. Data collection is centered on interviews with semi-structured questionnaire. The findings highlight on balancing and alignment of strategic objectives, low causality map, strategic communication insufficient and fragmented. For interviewees organizational culture is the biggest impediment to structuring a management model based on indicators and strategic process should be initiated by non-financial indicators gradually. The performance indicators of the AACC/RN portray more meritocracy operational procedures of social projects in the context of the Strategic Map determined in a shortterm over the long term. However, there is evidence of improved performance management and strategic taken as a basis of planning as both the strategic map structured. Therefore, the nonprofits need to adopt a form of management that enables planning, setting objectives and targets that provide the continuity of its activities, and generating instruments that can measure the financial performance and non-financial, in order to develop strategic actions for growth and sustainability

Corona Discharge Model for Transmission Lines by Lumped Elements

This paper shows the insertion of corona effect in a transmission line model based on lumped elements. The development is performed considering a frequency-dependent line representation by cascade of pi sections and state equations. Hence, the detailed profile of currents and voltages along the line, described from a non-homogeneous system of differential equations, can be obtained directly in time domain applying numerical or analytic solution integration methods. The corona discharge model is also based on lumped elements and is implemented from the well-know Skilling-Umoto Model.

Structural integrity identification based on smart materials and neural networks

This paper presents a non-model based technique to detect, locate, and characterize structural damage by combining the impedance-based structural health monitoring technique with an artificial neural network. The impedance-based structural health monitoring technique, which utilizes the electromechanical coupling property of piezoelectric materials, has shown engineering feasibility in a variety of practical field applications. Relying on high frequency structural excitations (typically>30 kHz), this technique is very sensitive to minor structural changes in the near field of the piezoelectric sensors. In order to quantitatively assess the state of structures, two sets of artificial neural networks, which utilize measured electrical impedance signals for input patterns, were developed. By employing high frequency ranges and by incorporating neural network features, this technique is able to detect the damage in its early stage and to estimate the nature of damage without prior knowledge of the model of structures. The paper concludes with an experimental example, an investigation on a massive quarter scale model of a steel bridge section, in order to verify the performance of this proposed methodology.

Visual IMML: um perfil UML para a modelagem de interfaces de usuário

The software development processes proposed by the most recent approaches in Software Engineering make use old models. UML was proposed as the standard language for modeling. The user interface is an important part of the software and has a fundamental importance to improve its usability. Unfortunately the standard UML does not offer appropriate resources to model user interfaces. Some proposals have already been proposed to solve this problem: some authors have been using models in the development of interfaces (Model Based Development) and some proposals to extend UML have been elaborated. But none of them considers the theoretical perspective presented by the semiotic engineering, that considers that, through the system, the designer should be able to communicate to the user what he can do, and how to use the system itself. This work presents Visual IMML, an UML Profile that emphasizes the aspects of the semiotic engineering. This Profile is based on IMML, that is a declarative textual language. The Visual IMML is a proposal that aims to improve the specification process by using a visual modeling (using diagrams) language. It proposes a new set of modeling elements (stereotypes) specifically designed to the specification and documentation of user interfaces, considering the aspects of communication, interaction and functionality in an integrated manner

Criação de empresas à luz do modelo de decisão effectuation: um estudo com mulheres empreendedoras no município de Currais Novos/RN

This study analysed the creation of businesses by entrepreneur women in the Currais Novos city, looking for verifying if they used making decision processes aligned to the Effectuation logic throughout the creation of their companies. To this, was accomplished a multiple cases and exploratory study, whit a qualitative approach of analyse, using the thematic life history technique that match accounts and semi-structured interview route, being accomplished like a long interview, where the researcher interact with the informer continuously. The semi-structured interview route was created by the adaptation of the interview route used by Tasic (2007). The present study appealed to a intentional selection of individuals in function of their importance in relation to the boarded theme. This means that the individuals were chosen in function of their social and theoretical representatively inside the considered situation. The participant individuals of this research were five entrepreneur women that act in the Currais Novos city, owners of five different companies. To the data treatment and analyse, was chosen the content analyse technique. This study worked with a priori theoretical categories. The categories of analyse in this study was obtained with base in the Effectuation approach (SARASVATHY, 2001a, 2001b, 2008), that is an alternative model of making decision to the classic model based in the causality principle. These categories are Clarity of Initial Aims , Tolerance to the Lost and Initials Investments , Control of Resources ( who I am , what I know and who I know ) and Promoting Over Contingencies . As result, the entrepreneur women researched, in a general way, hadn t clear initial aims at the companies creation moment, hadn t aversion to the risk to lose the time and the money that they were investing in the company in formation, they highlighted the products and services identity that offered with a strong link with Seridó region, they had experience in the field of activity in which they decided to open their companies, had the commitment of partners in the beginning of the business and they knew to transform the initial difficulties in opportunities. By the end, this study conclude that the entrepreneur women studied used, in a big part, making decision processes aligned to the Effectuation logic throughout the creation of their companies