860 resultados para inclusion probability


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Feather pecking in laying hens is a serious behavioral problem that is often associated with feather eating. The intake of feathers may influence the gut microbiota and its metabolism. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of 2 different diets, with or without 5% ground feathers, on the gut microbiota and the resulting microbial fermentation products and to identify keratin-degrading bacteria in chicken digesta. One-day-old Lohmann-Selected Leghorn chicks were divided into 3 feeding groups: group A (control), B (5% ground feathers in the diet), and C, in which the control diet was fed until wk 12 and then switched to the 5% feather diet to study the effect of time of first feather ingestion. The gut microbiota was analyzed by cultivation and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis of ileum and cecum digesta. Short-chain fatty acids, ammonia, and lactate concentrations were measured as microbial metabolites. The concentration of keratinolytic bacteria increased after feather ingestion in the ileum (P < 0.001) and cecum (P = 0.033). Bacterial species that hydrolyzed keratin were identified as Enterococcus faecium, Lactobacillus crispatus, Lactobacillus reuteri-like species (97% sequence homology), and Lactobacillus salivarius-like species (97% sequence homology). Molecular analysis of cecal DNA extracts showed that the feather diet lowered the bacterial diversity indicated by a reduced richness (P < 0.001) and shannon (P = 0.012) index. The pattern of microbial metabolites indicated some changes, especially in the cecum. This study showed that feather intake induced an adaptation of the intestinal microbiota in chickens. It remains unclear to what extent the changed metabolism of the microbiota reflects the feather intake and could have an effect on the behavior of the hens.

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Let {μ(i)t}t≥0 ( i=1,2 ) be continuous convolution semigroups (c.c.s.) of probability measures on Aff(1) (the affine group on the real line). Suppose that μ(1)1=μ(2)1 . Assume furthermore that {μ(1)t}t≥0 is a Gaussian c.c.s. (in the sense that its generating distribution is a sum of a primitive distribution and a second-order differential operator). Then μ(1)t=μ(2)t for all t≥0 . We end up with a possible application in mathematical finance.

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Different socio-economic and environmental drivers lead local communities in mountain regions to adapt land use practices and engage in protection policies. The political system also has to develop new approaches to adapt to those drivers. Local actors are the target group of those policy approaches, and the question arises of if and how much those actors are consulted or even integrated into the design of local land use and protection policies. This article addresses this question by comparing seven different case studies in Swiss mountain regions. Through a formal social network analysis, the inclusion of local actors in collaborative policy networks is investigated and compared to the involvement of other stakeholders representing the next higher sub-national or national decisional levels. Results show that there is a significant difference (1) in how local actors are embedded compared to other stakeholders; and (2) between top-down versus bottom-up designed policy processes.

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Liquid–vapour homogenisation temperatures of fluid inclusions in stalagmites are used for quantitative temperature reconstructions in paleoclimate research. Specifically for this application, we have developed a novel heating/cooling stage that can be operated with large stalagmite sections of up to 17 × 35 mm2 to simplify and improve the chronological reconstruction of paleotemperature time-series. The stage is designed for use of an oil immersion objective and a high-NA condenser front lens to obtain high-resolution images for bubble radius measurements. The temperature accuracy of the stage is better than ± 0.1 °C with a precision (reproducibility) of ± 0.02 °C.

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PURPOSE We prospectively assessed the diagnostic accuracy of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS We performed a prospective study of 111 consecutive men with prostate and/or bladder cancer who underwent 3 Tesla diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging of the pelvis without an endorectal coil before radical prostatectomy (78) or cystoprostatectomy (33). Three independent readers blinded to clinical and pathological data assigned a prostate cancer suspicion grade based on qualitative imaging analysis. Final pathology results of prostates with and without cancer served as the reference standard. Primary outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant prostate cancer with significance defined as a largest diameter of the index lesion of 1 cm or greater, extraprostatic extension, or Gleason score 7 or greater on final pathology assessment. Secondary outcomes were interreader agreement assessed by the Fleiss κ coefficient and image reading time. RESULTS Of the 111 patients 93 had prostate cancer, which was significant in 80 and insignificant in 13, and 18 had no prostate cancer on final pathology results. The sensitivity and specificity of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant PCa was 89% to 91% and 77% to 81%, respectively, for the 3 readers. Interreader agreement was good (Fleiss κ 0.65 to 0.74). Median reading time was between 13 and 18 minutes. CONCLUSIONS Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (3 Tesla) is a noninvasive technique that allows for the detection of significant prostate cancer with high probability without contrast medium or an endorectal coil, and with good interreader agreement and a short reading time. This technique should be further evaluated as a tool to stratify patients with prostate cancer for individualized treatment options.

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Voting power is commonly measured using a probability. But what kind of probability is this? Is it a degree of belief or an objective chance or some other sort of probability? The aim of this paper is to answer this question. The answer depends on the use to which a measure of voting power is put. Some objectivist interpretations of probabilities are appropriate when we employ such a measure for descriptive purposes. By contrast, when voting power is used to normatively assess voting rules, the probabilities are best understood as classical probabilities, which count possibilities. This is so because, from a normative stance, voting power is most plausibly taken to concern rights and thus possibilities. The classical interpretation also underwrites the use of the Bernoulli model upon which the Penrose/Banzhaf measure is based.

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Recent research on the transformation of West European party systems emphasises that cultural issues such as immigration have gained in importance besides the traditional socio-economic cleavage. While this literature shows that parties address not only cultural but also economic is-sues, it has paid less attention on whether parties combine cultural and economic issues. In this paper we focus on immigrants’ social rights by analysing if and how mainstream parties combine immigration and redistributive issues. Drawing on Faist (1995), we distinguish three different perspectives how political actors, here mainstream parties, might react to the welfare chauvinist claims that aim to restrict immigrants’ social rights. Our analysis relies on party manifestos in Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom between 1999 and 2011. The results of the anal-ysis indicate that variation is found among party families, in particular among the left. Even though the purpose of the paper is not to ‘prove’ that the populist challenge explains how the mainstream left-wing parties behave, the results allow nonetheless for interpreting mainstream parties’ strategic combination of welfare and immigration issues as a response to anti-immigration and anti-integration issues raised by populist challengers.

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This article provides an importance sampling algorithm for computing the probability of ruin with recuperation of a spectrally negative Lévy risk process with light-tailed downwards jumps. Ruin with recuperation corresponds to the following double passage event: for some t∈(0,∞)t∈(0,∞), the risk process starting at level x∈[0,∞)x∈[0,∞) falls below the null level during the period [0,t][0,t] and returns above the null level at the end of the period tt. The proposed Monte Carlo estimator is logarithmic efficient, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, when y=t/xy=t/x is constant and below a certain bound.

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Cathodoluminescence (CL) studies have previously shown that some secondary fluid inclusions in luminescent quartz are surrounded by dark, non-luminescent patches, resulting from fracture-sealing by late, trace-element-poor quartz. This finding has led to the tacit generalization that all dark CL patches indicate influx of low temperature, late-stage fluids. In this study we have examined natural and synthetic hydrothermal quartz crystals using CL imaging supplemented by in-situ elemental analysis. The results lead us to propose that all natural, liquid-water-bearing inclusions in quartz, whether trapped on former crystal growth surfaces (i.e., of primary origin) or in healed fractures (i.e., of pseudosecondary or secondary origin), are surrounded by three-dimensional, non-luminescent patches. Cross-cutting relations show that the patches form after entrapment of the fluid inclusions and therefore they are not diagnostic of the timing of fluid entrapment. Instead, the dark patches reveal the mechanism by which fluid inclusions spontaneously approach morphological equilibrium and purify their host quartz over geological time. Fluid inclusions that contain solvent water perpetually dissolve and reprecipitate their walls, gradually adopting low-energy euhedral and equant shapes. Defects in the host quartz constitute solubility gradients that drive physical migration of the inclusions over distances of tens of μm (commonly) up to several mm (rarely). Inclusions thus sequester from their walls any trace elements (e.g., Li, Al, Na, Ti) present in excess of equilibrium concentrations, thereby chemically purifying their host crystals in a process analogous to industrial zone refining. Non-luminescent patches of quartz are left in their wake. Fluid inclusions that contain no liquid water as solvent (e.g., inclusions of low-density H2O vapor or other non-aqueous volatiles) do not undergo this process and therefore do not migrate, do not modify their shapes with time, and are not associated with dark-CL zone-refined patches. This new understanding has implications for the interpretation of solids within fluid inclusions (e.g., Ti- and Al-minerals) and for the elemental analysis of hydrothermal and metamorphic quartz and its fluid inclusions by microbeam methods such as LA-ICPMS and SIMS. As Ti is a common trace element in quartz, its sequestration by fluid inclusions and its depletion in zone-refined patches impacts on applications of the Ti-in-quartz geothermometer.