Predicting price-tag for customized goods

We discuss a dynamic pricing model which will aid automobile manufacturer in choosing the right price for customer segment. Though there is oligopoly market structure, the customers get "locked" into a particular technology/company which virtually makes the situation akin to a monopoly. There are associated network externalities and positive feedback. The key idea in monopoly pricing lies in extracting the customer surplus by exploiting the respective elasticities of demand. We present a Walrasian general equilibrium approach to determine the segment price. We compare the prices obtained from optimization model with that from Walrasian dynamics. The results are encouraging and can serve as a critical factor in Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and thereby effectively manage the lock-in.

Social Networks and Everyday Practices in Russia

My doctoral dissertation in sociology and Russian studies, Social Networks and Everyday Practices in Russia, employs a "micro" or "grassroots" perspective on the transition. The study is a collection of articles detailing social networks in five different contexts. The first article examines Russian birthdays from a network perspective. The second takes a look at health care to see whether networks have become obsolete in a sector that is still overwhelmingly public, but increasingly being monetarised. The third article investigates neighbourhood relations. The fourth details relationships at work, particularly from the vantage point of internal migration. The fifth explores housing and the role of networks and money both in the Soviet and post-Soviet era. The study is based on qualitative social network and interview data gathered among three groups, teachers, doctors and factory workers, in St. Petersburg during 1993-2000. Methodologically it builds on a qualitative social network approach. The study adds a critical element to the discussion on networks in post-socialism. A considerable consensus exists that social networks were vital in state socialist societies and were used to bypass various difficulties caused by endemic shortages and bureaucratic rigidities, but a more debated issue has been their role in post-socialism. Some scholars have argued that the importance of networks has been dramatically reduced in the new market economy, whereas others have stressed their continuing importance. If a common denominator in both has been a focus on networks in relation to the past, a more overlooked aspect has been the question of inequality. To what extent is access to networks unequally distributed? What are the limits and consequences of networks, for those who have access, those outside networks or society at large? My study provides some evidence about inequalities. It shows that some groups are privileged over others, for instance, middle-class people in informal access to health care. Moreover, analysing the formation of networks sheds additional light on inequalities, as it highlights the importance of migration as a mechanism of inequality, for example. The five articles focus on how networks are actually used in everyday life. The article on health care, for instance, shows that personal connections are still important and popular in post-Soviet Russia, despite the growing importance of money and the emergence of "fee for service" medicine. Fifteen of twenty teachers were involved in informal medical exchange during a two-week study period, so that they used their networks to bypass the formal market mechanisms or official procedures. Medicines were obtained through personal connections because some were unavailable at local pharmacies or because these connections could provide medicines for a cheaper price or even for free. The article on neighbours shows that "mutual help" was the central feature of neighbouring, so that the exchange of goods, services and information covered almost half the contacts with neighbours reported. Neighbours did not provide merely small-scale help but were often exchange partners because they possessed important professional qualities, had access to workplace resources, or knew somebody useful. The article on the Russian work collective details workplace-related relationships in a tractor factory and shows that interaction with and assistance from one's co-workers remains important. The most interesting finding was that co-workers were even more important to those who had migrated to the city than to those who were born there, which is explained by the specifics of Soviet migration. As a result, the workplace heavily influenced or absorbed contexts for the worker migrants to establish relationships whereas many meeting-places commonly available in Western countries were largely absent or at least did not function as trusted public meeting places to initiate relationships. More results are to be found from my dissertation: Anna-Maria Salmi: Social Networks and Everyday Practices in Russia, Kikimora Publications, 2006, see www.kikimora-publications.com.

Homeowners' Associations in Russia after the 2005 Housing Reform

The thesis examines homeowners associations as a part of the large-scale housing reform, implemented in Russia since 2005. The reform transferred housing management from the public sector to the private sector and to the citizens responsibility. The reform is a continuation to the privatisation of the housing stock that was started in Russia in the beginning of the 1990s, aiming to build a market-oriented housing sector in the country. The reform makes a fundamental change to the Soviet system, in which ownership along with management and maintenance of housing were monopolised by the state. Homeowners are now responsible for the management of the common areas in privatised houses, which is often realised by establishing a homeowners association. Homeowners associations are examined by using the so-called common-pool resource regime approach, with the main question being the ways in which taking care of common property collectively succeeds in practice. The study is based on interview data of St. Petersburg s homeowners associations. Using the common-pool resource theory the study demonstrates why implementation of the housing reform has not succeeded as expected. Certain elements that characterise a successful common-pool resource regime do not fulfill sufficiently in St. Petersburg s homeowners associations. Firstly, free-riding, that is, withdrawal from the association s joint decision-making and not making the housing payments is common, as effective sanctions to prevent it are missing in the legislation. That is, eviction or expelling a non-paying member from the association is not possible. Secondly, ownership of the land plot and common areas of the house, such as basements and attics, are often disputed between the associations and authorities. In the Soviet era, these common areas were public property along with the apartments, but in privatised houses they should, according to the legislation, belong to the associations property. Thirdly, solution of disputes between the associations and authorities and within the associations is difficult, as the court system tends to be bureaucratic and inefficient. In addition to the common-pool resource approach, the study also examines how social capital contributes to the associations effectiveness and democratic governance. The study finds that although homeowners associations have increased cooperation and tightened social relations between neighbours, social capital has not been able to prevent free-riding. The study shows that unlike it is often claimed, the so-called Soviet mentality , that is, residents passiveness and unwillingness to participate, is not the most important obstacle to the reform. Instead, the reform is impeded most of all by imperfect institutional arrangements and local authorities that prevent the associations from working as independent, self-governing associations.

The connection between on-farm assessed welfare (A-index) and production parameters of the sows

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää tilalla määritetyn hyvinvoinnin yhteyttä emakoiden tuotantotuloksiin. Hyvinvointia arvioitiin suomalaisen hyvinvointi-indeksin, A-indeksi, avulla. Tuotantotuloksina käytettiin kahta erilaista tuotosaineistoa, jotka molemmat pohjautuivat kansalliseen tuotosseuranta aineistoon. Hyvinvointimääritykset tehtiin 30 porsastuotantosikalassa maaliskuun 2007 aikana. A-indeksi koostuu kuudesta kategoriasta ’liikkumismahdollisuudet’, ’alustan ominaisuudet’, ’sosiaaliset kontaktit’, ’valo, ilma ja melu’, ’ruokinta ja veden saanti’ sekä ’eläinten terveys ja hoidon taso’. Jokaisessa kategoriassa on 3-10 pääosin ympäristöperäistä muuttujaa, jotka vaihtelevat osastoittain. Maksimipistemäärä osastolle on 100. Hyvinvointimittaukset tehtiin porsitus-, tiineytys- ja joutilasosastoilla. Erillisten tiineytysosastojen pienen lukumäärän takia (n=7) tilakohtaiset tiineytys- ja joutilasosastopisteet yhdistettiin ja keskiarvoja käytettiin analyyseissä. Yhteyksiä tuotokseen tutkittiin kahden eri aineiston avulla 1) Tilaraportti aineisto (n=29) muodostuu muokkaamattomista tila- ja tuotostuloksista tilavierailua edeltävän vuoden ajalta, 2) POTSIaineisto (n=30) muodostuu POTSI-ohjelmalla (MTT) muokatusta tuotantoaineistosta, joka sisältää managementtiryhmän (tila, vuosi, vuodenaika) vaikutuksen ensikoiden ja emakoiden pahnuekohtaiseen tuotokseen. Yhteyksiä analysointiin korrelaatio- ja regressioanalyysien avulla. Vaikka osallistuminen tutkimukseen oli vapaaehtoista, molempien tuotantoaineistojen perusteella tutkimustilat edustavat keskituottoista suomalaista sikatilaa. A-indeksin kokonaispisteet vaihtelivat välillä 37,5–64,0 porsitusosastolla ja 39,5–83,5 joutilasosastolla. Tilaraporttiaineistoa käytettäessä paremmat pisteet porsitusosaston ’eläinten terveys ja hoidon taso’ -kategoriasta lyhensivät eläinten lisääntymissykliä, lisäsivät syntyvien pahnueiden ja porsaiden määrää sekä alensivat kuolleena syntyneiden lukumäärää. Regressiomallin mukaan ’eläinten terveys ja hoidon taso’ -kategoria selitti syntyvien porsaiden lukumäärän, porsimisvälin pituuden sekä keskiporsimiskerran vaihtelua. Paremmat pisteet joutilasosaston ’liikkumismahdollisuudet’ kategoriasta alensivat syntyneiden pahnueiden sekä syntyneiden että vieroitettujen porsaiden lukumäärää. Regressiomallin mukaan ensikkopahnueiden osuus ja ”liikkumismahdollisuudet” kategorian pisteet selittivät vieroitettujen porsaiden lukumäärän vaihtelua. POTSI-aineiston yhteydessä kuolleena syntyneiden porsaiden lukumäärän aleneminen oli ensikoilla yhteydessä parempiin porsitusosaston ’sosiaalisiin kontakteihin’ ja emakoilla puolestaan joutilasosaston parempiin ’eläinten terveys ja hoidon taso’ pisteisiin. Kahden eri tuotantoaineiston avulla saadut tulokset erosivat toisistaan. Seuraavissa tutkimuksissa onkin suositeltavampaa käyttää Tilaraporttiaineistoja, joissa tuotokset ilmoitetaan vuosikohtaisina. Tämän tutkimuksen perusteella hyvinvoinnilla ja tuotoksella on yhteyksiä, joilla on myös merkittävää taloudellista vaikutusta. Erityisesti hyvä eläinten hoito ja eläinten terveys lisäävät tuotettujen porsaiden määrää ja lyhentävät lisääntymiskiertoa. Erityishuomiota tulee kiinnittää vapaana olevien joutilaiden emakoiden sosiaaliseen stressiin ja rehunsaannin varmistamiseen kaikille yksilöille.

Choosing an appropriate index to construct dominance hierarchies in animal societies: a comparison of three indices

A plethora of indices have been proposed and used to construct dominance hierarchies in a variety of vertebrate and invertebrate societies, although the rationale for choosing a particular index for a particular species is seldom explained. In this study, we analysed and compared three such indices, viz Clutton-Brock et al.'s index (CBI), originally developed for red deer, Cervus elaphus, David's score (DS) originally proposed by the statistician H. A. David and the frequency-based index of dominance (FDI) developed and routinely used by our group for the primitively eusocial wasps Ropalidia marginata and Ropalidia cyathiformis. Dominance ranks attributed by all three indices were strongly and positively correlated for both natural data sets from the wasp colonies and for artificial data sets generated for the purpose. However, the indices differed in their ability to yield unique (untied) ranks in the natural data sets. This appears to be caused by the presence of noninteracting individuals and reversals in the direction of dominance in some of the pairs in the natural data sets. This was confirmed by creating additional artificial data sets with noninteracting individuals and with reversals. Based on the criterion of yielding the largest proportion of unique ranks, we found that FDI is best suited for societies such as the wasps belonging to Ropalidia, DS is best suited for societies with reversals and CBI remains a suitable index for societies such as red deer in which multiple interactions are uncommon. (C) 2009 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Essays on Market Microstructure: Price Discovery and Informed Trading

Market microstructure is “the study of the trading mechanisms used for financial securities” (Hasbrouck (2007)). It seeks to understand the sources of value and reasons for trade, in a setting with different types of traders, and different private and public information sets. The actual mechanisms of trade are a continually changing object of study. These include continuous markets, auctions, limit order books, dealer markets, or combinations of these operating as a hybrid market. Microstructure also has to allow for the possibility of multiple prices. At any given time an investor may be faced with a multitude of different prices, depending on whether he or she is buying or selling, the quantity he or she wishes to trade, and the required speed for the trade. The price may also depend on the relationship that the trader has with potential counterparties. In this research, I touch upon all of the above issues. I do this by studying three specific areas, all of which have both practical and policy implications. First, I study the role of information in trading and pricing securities in markets with a heterogeneous population of traders, some of whom are informed and some not, and who trade for different private or public reasons. Second, I study the price discovery of stocks in a setting where they are simultaneously traded in more than one market. Third, I make a contribution to the ongoing discussion about market design, i.e. the question of which trading systems and ways of organizing trading are most efficient. A common characteristic throughout my thesis is the use of high frequency datasets, i.e. tick data. These datasets include all trades and quotes in a given security, rather than just the daily closing prices, as in traditional asset pricing literature. This thesis consists of four separate essays. In the first essay I study price discovery for European companies cross-listed in the United States. I also study explanatory variables for differences in price discovery. In my second essay I contribute to earlier research on two issues of broad interest in market microstructure: market transparency and informed trading. I examine the effects of a change to an anonymous market at the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange. I broaden my focus slightly in the third essay, to include releases of macroeconomic data in the United States. I analyze the effect of these releases on European cross-listed stocks. The fourth and last essay examines the uses of standard methodologies of price discovery analysis in a novel way. Specifically, I study price discovery within one market, between local and foreign traders.

Essays on the Role of Time in Price Discovery (summary section only)

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the role of trade durations in price discovery. The motivation to use trade durations in the study of price discovery is that durations are robust to many microstructure effects that introduce a bias in the measurement of returns volatility. Another motivation to use trade durations in the study of price discovery is that it is difficult to think of economic variables, which really are useful in the determination of the source of volatility at arbitrarily high frequencies. The dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the volatility pattern of stock returns. The theory on volatility is associated with the theory on the information content of trade, dear to the market microstructure theory. The first essay documents that the volatility per transaction is related to the intensity of trade, and a strong relationship between the stochastic process of trade durations and trading variables. In the second essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the quantification of risk due to a trading volume of a certain size. The theory on volume is intrinsically associated with the stock volatility pattern. The essay documents that volatility increases, in general, when traders choose to trade with large transactions. In the third essay, the role of trade durations in price discovery is examined with respect to the information content of a trade. The theory on the information content of a trade is associated with the theory on the rate of price revisions in the market. The essay documents that short durations are associated with information. Thus, traders are compensated for responding quickly to information

Short-term Price Behavior and the Effect of Foreign Investors in Finnish Equity Markets (summary section only)

As globalization and capital free movement has increased, so has interest in the effects of that global money flow, especially during financial crises. The concern has been that large global money flows will affect the pricing of small local markets by causing, in particular, overreaction. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the body of work concerning short-term under- and overreaction and the short-term effects of foreign investment flow in the small Finnish equity markets. This thesis also compares foreign execution return to domestic execution return. This study’s results indicate that short-term under- and overreaction occurs in domestic-buy portfolios (domestic net buying) rather than in foreign-buy portfolios. This under- and overreaction, however, is not economically meaningful after controlling for the bid-ask bounce effect. Based on this finding, one can conclude that foreign investors do not have a destabilizing effect in the short-term in the Finnish markets. Foreign activity affects short-term returns. When foreign investors are net buyers (sellers) there are positive (negative) market adjusted returns. Literature related to nationality and institutional effect leads us to expect these kind of results. These foreign flows are persistent at a 5 % to 21 % level and the persistence of foreign buy flow is higher than the foreign sell flow. Foreign daily trading execution is worse than domestic execution. Literature which quantifies foreign investors as liquidity demanders and literature related to front-running leads us to expect poorer foreign execution than domestic execution.

Price Inflation, Unemployment and Devaluations: The Finnish Experience of the 1990s

In this paper I provide some empirical answers to important questions such as the determinants of price inflation and the role of inflation polices. The results indicate that monetary policy is surprisingly impotent as a device for controlling inflation and there is little support that it influences the real variables. The low inflation after the Finnish devaluations in the beginning of 90s is foremost due to a previous imbalance in the labor markets and depressed aggregate demand.

The Physical Strenuousness of Work is Slightly Associated with an Upward Trend in the Body Mass Index

This paper explores the relationship between the physical strenuousness of work and the body mass index in Finland, using individual microdata over the period 1972-2002. The data contain self-reported information about the physical strenuousness of a respondent’s current occupation. Our estimates show that the changes in the physical strenuousness of work can explain around 8% at most of the definite increase in BMI observed over the period. The main reason for this appears to be that the quantitative magnitude of the effect of the physical strenuousness of work on BMI is rather moderate. Hence, according to the point estimates, BMI is only around 1.5% lower when one’s current occupation is physically very demanding and involves lifting and carrying heavy objects compared with sedentary job (reference group of the estimations), other things being equal. Accordingly, the changes in eating habits and the amount of physical activity during leisure time must be the most important contributors to the upward trend in BMI in industrialised countries, but not the changes in the labour market structure.