Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

Linguistic capital and the linguistic field for teachers unaccustomed to linguistic difference

Teachers in classrooms throughout England are facing a shifting demographic in their pupil intake. Where once the teaching of children whose first language was not English was considered an inner-city teachers’ role, more recent migration patterns have challenged this preconception (Andrews, 2009). In England in particular, this change sits against an historical backdrop of centralised control of the curriculum for English. This article explores how primary school teachers responded to the arrival of Polish children in county settings following EU accession in 2004. Interviews with a small sample of teachers in schools that had previously been mainly monolingual were coded using Bourdieu’s Logic of Practice. Analysis revealed a complex mix of experienced that appeared to rest on assumed pedagogical norms and professionally assimilated external pressures. Discussion centres on the author’s interpretation of teachers’ ownership of linguistic capital and its relationship to linguistic field.

Representing the Arctic in global surface temperature time series of recent climate change

The Arctic is an important region in the study of climate change, but monitoring surface temperatures in this region is challenging, particularly in areas covered by sea ice. Here in situ, satellite and reanalysis data were utilised to investigate whether global warming over recent decades could be better estimated by changing the way the Arctic is treated in calculating global mean temperature. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in anomaly estimates. Similar accuracies were found for anomalies estimated from in situ meteorological station SAT records using a kriging technique. Whether additional data sources, which are not currently utilised in temperature anomaly datasets, would improve estimates of Arctic surface air temperature anomalies was investigated within the reanalysis testbed and using in situ data. For the reanalysis study, the additional input anomalies were reanalysis data sampled at certain supplementary data source locations over Arctic land and sea ice areas. For the in situ data study, the additional input anomalies over sea ice were surface temperature anomalies derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite instruments. The use of additional data sources, particularly those located in the Arctic Ocean over sea ice or on islands in sparsely observed regions, can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of estimated anomalies. Decreases in Root Mean Square Error can be up to 0.2K for Arctic-average anomalies and more than 1K for spatially resolved anomalies. Further improvements in accuracy may be accomplished through the use of other data sources.

Factors that influence the detection of psychological problems in adolescents attending general practices

Background Epidemiological studies indicate that the prevalence of psychological problems in patients attending primary care services may be as high as 25%. Aim To identify factors that influence the detection of psychological difficulties in adolescent patients receiving primary care in the UK. Design of study A prospective study of 13-16 year olds consecutively attending general practices. Setting General practices, Norfolk, UK. Method Information was obtained from adolescents and parents using the validated Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and from GF`s using the consultation assessment form. Results Ninety-eight adolescents were recruited by 13 GPs in Norfolk (mean age = 14.4 years, SD = 1.08; 38 males, 60 females). The study identified psychological difficulties in almost one-third of adolescents (31/98, 31.6%). Three factors significant to the detection of psychological disorders in adolescents were identified: adolescents' perceptions of difficulties according to the self-report SDQ, the severity of their problems as indicated by the self-report SDQ, and whether psychological issues were discussed in the consultation. GPs did not always explore psychological problems with adolescents, even if GPs perceived these to be present. Nineteen of 31 adolescents with psychological difficulties were identified by GPs (sensitivity = 61.2%, specificity = 85.1%). A management plan or follow-up was made for only seven of 19 adolescents identified, suggesting that ongoing psychological difficulties in many patients are not being addressed. Conclusions GPs are in a good position to identify psychological issues in adolescents, but GPs and adolescents seem reluctant to explore these openly. Open discussion of psychological issues in GP consultations was found to be the most important factor in determining whether psychological difficulties in adolescents are detected by GPs.

Pollinator conservation: the difference between managing for pollination services and preserving pollinator diversity

Our review looks at pollinator conservation and highlights the differences in approach between managing for pollination services and preserving pollinator diversity. We argue that ecosystem service management does not equal biodiversity conservation, and that maintaining species diversity is crucial in providing ecosystem resilience in the face of future environmental change. Management and policy measures therefore need to focus on species not just in human dominated landscapes but need to benefit wider diversity of species including those in specialised habitats. We argue that only by adopting a holistic ecosystem approach we can ensure the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystem services in the long-term.

Rapid, automated detection of stem canker symptoms in woody perennials using artificial neural network analysis

Background Pseudomonas syringae can cause stem necrosis and canker in a wide range of woody species including cherry, plum, peach, horse chestnut and ash. The detection and quantification of lesion progression over time in woody tissues is a key trait for breeders to select upon for resistance. Results In this study a general, rapid and reliable approach to lesion quantification using image recognition and an artificial neural network model was developed. This was applied to screen both the virulence of a range of P. syringae pathovars and the resistance of a set of cherry and plum accessions to bacterial canker. The method developed was more objective than scoring by eye and allowed the detection of putatively resistant plant material for further study. Conclusions Automated image analysis will facilitate rapid screening of material for resistance to bacterial and other phytopathogens, allowing more efficient selection and quantification of resistance responses.

Modelling spectral reflectance of open cork oak woodland: a simulation analysis of the effects of vegetation structure and background

This study analyses the influence of vegetation structure (i.e. leaf area index and canopy cover) and seasonal background changes on moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS)-simulated reflectance data in open woodland. Approximately monthly spectral reflectance and transmittance field measurements (May 2011 to October 2013) of cork oak tree leaves (Quercus suber) and of the herbaceous understorey were recorded in the region of Ribatejo, Portugal. The geometric-optical and radiative transfer (GORT) model was used to simulate MODIS response (red, near-infrared) and to calculate vegetation indices, investigating their response to changes in the structure of the overstorey vegetation and to seasonal changes in the understorey using scenarios corresponding to contrasting phenological status (dry season vs. wet season). The performance of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) is discussed. Results showed that SAVI and EVI were very sensitive to the emergence of background vegetation in the wet season compared to NDVI and that shading effects lead to an opposing trend in the vegetation indices. The information provided by this research can be useful to improve our understanding of the temporal dynamic of vegetation, monitored by vegetation indices.

On the detection and attribution of gravity waves generated by the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse

Internal gravity waves are generated as adjustment radiation whenever a sudden change in forcing causes the atmosphere to depart from its large-scale balanced state. Such a forcing anomaly occurs during a solar eclipse, when the Moon’s shadow cools part of the Earth’s surface. The resulting atmospheric gravity waves are associated with pressure and temperature perturbations, which in principle are detectable both at the surface and aloft. In this study, surface pressure and temperature data from two UK sites at Reading and Lerwick are analysed for eclipse-driven gravity-wave perturbations during the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse over north-west Europe. Radiosonde wind data from the same two sites are also analysed using a moving parcel analysis method, to determine the periodicities of the waves aloft. On this occasion, the perturbations both at the surface and aloft are found not to be confidently attributable to eclipse-driven gravity waves. We conclude that the complex synoptic weather conditions over the UK at the time of this particular eclipse helped to mask any eclipse-driven gravity waves.

Understanding climate change projections for precipitation over western Europe with a weather typing approach

Precipitation over western Europe (WE) is projected to increase (decrease) roughly northward (equatorward) of 50°N during the 21st century. These changes are generally attributed to alterations in the regional large-scale circulation, e.g., jet stream, cyclone activity, and blocking frequencies. A novel weather typing within the sector (30°W–10°E, 25–70°N) is used for a more comprehensive dynamical interpretation of precipitation changes. A k-means clustering on daily mean sea level pressure was undertaken for ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2014). Eight weather types are identified: S1, S2, S3 (summertime types), W1, W2, W3 (wintertime types), B1, and B2 (blocking-like types). Their distinctive dynamical characteristics allow identifying the main large-scale precipitation-driving mechanisms. Simulations with 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models for recent climate conditions show biases in reproducing the observed seasonality of weather types. In particular, an overestimation of weather type frequencies associated with zonal airflow is identified. Considering projections following the (Representative Concentration Pathways) RCP8.5 scenario over 2071–2100, the frequencies of the three driest types (S1, B2, and W3) are projected to increase (mainly S1, +4%) in detriment of the rainiest types, particularly W1 (−3%). These changes explain most of the precipitation projections over WE. However, a weather type-independent background signal is identified (increase/decrease in precipitation over northern/southern WE), suggesting modifications in precipitation-generating processes and/or model inability to accurately simulate these processes. Despite these caveats in the precipitation scenarios for WE, which must be duly taken into account, our approach permits a better understanding of the projected trends for precipitation over WE.

Detection of SDHI insensitivity in a Zymoseptoria tritici field population associated with the SdhC-H152R and SdhD-R47W substitutions

BACKGROUND: Succinate dehydrogenase inhibitor fungicides are important in the management of Zymoseptoria tritici in wheat. New active ingredients from this group of fungicides have been introduced recently and are widely used. Because the fungicides act at a single enzyme site, resistance development in Z. tritici is classified as medium-to-high risk. RESULTS: Isolates from Irish experimental plots in 2015 were tested against the SDHI penthiopyrad during routine monitoring. The median of the population was approximately 2 x less sensitive than the median of the baseline population. Two of the 93 isolates were much less sensitive to penthiopyrad than least sensitive of the baseline isolates. These isolates were also insensitive to most of commercially available SDHIs. Analysis of the succinate dehydrogenase coding genes confirmed the presence of the substitutions SdhC-H152R and SdhD-R47W in the very insensitive isolates. CONCLUSION: This is the first report showing that the SdhC-H152R mutation detected in laboratory mutagenesis studies also exists in the field. The function and relevance of this mutation, combined with SdhD-R47W, still needs to be determined.

Reproducibility of the online Food4Me food-frequency questionnaire for estimating dietary intakes across Europe

Background: Accurate dietary assessment is key to understanding nutrition-related outcomes and is essential for estimating dietary change in nutrition-based interventions. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the pan-European reproducibility of the Food4Me food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ) in assessing the habitual diet of adults. Methods: Participantsfromthe Food4Me study, a 6-mo,Internet-based, randomizedcontrolled trial of personalized nutrition conducted in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Greece, and Poland were included. Screening and baseline data (both collected before commencement of the intervention) were used in the present analyses, and participants were includedonly iftheycompleted FFQs at screeningand at baselinewithin a 1-mo timeframebeforethe commencement oftheintervention. Sociodemographic (e.g., sex andcountry) andlifestyle[e.g.,bodymass index(BMI,inkg/m2)and physical activity] characteristics were collected. Linear regression, correlation coefficients, concordance (percentage) in quartile classification, and Bland-Altman plots for daily intakes were used to assess reproducibility. Results: In total, 567 participants (59% female), with a mean 6 SD age of 38.7 6 13.4 y and BMI of 25.4 6 4.8, completed bothFFQswithin 1 mo(mean 6 SD: 19.26 6.2d).Exact plus adjacent classification oftotal energy intakeinparticipants was highest in Ireland (94%) and lowest in Poland (81%). Spearman correlation coefficients (r) in total energy intake between FFQs ranged from 0.50 for obese participants to 0.68 and 0.60 in normal-weight and overweight participants, respectively. Bland-Altman plots showed a mean difference between FFQs of 210 kcal/d, with the agreement deteriorating as energy intakes increased. There was little variation in reproducibility of total energy intakes between sex and age groups. Conclusions: The online Food4Me FFQ was shown to be reproducible across 7 European countries when administered within a 1-mo period to a large number of participants. The results support the utility of the online Food4Me FFQ as a reproducible tool across multiple European populations. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01530139.

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations.

Nitric oxide detection in cell culture exposed to LPS after Er:YAG laser irradiation

P>Aim To evaluate in vitro the effect of calcium hydroxide [Ca(OH)(2)] and Er:YAG laser on bacterial endotoxin [also known as lipopolysaccharide (LPS)] as determined by nitric oxide (NO) detection in J774 murine macrophage cell line culture. Methodology Samples of LPS solution (50 mu gmL-1), Ca(OH)(2) suspension (25 mg mL-1) and LPS suspension with Ca(OH)(2) were prepared. The studied groups were: I - LPS (control); II - LPS + Ca(OH)(2); III - LPS + Er:YAG laser (15 Hz 140 mJ); IV - LPS + Er:YAG laser (15 Hz 200 mJ); V - LPS + Er:YAG laser (15 Hz 250 mJ), VI - Pyrogen-free water; VII - Ca(OH)(2). Murine macrophage J774 cells were plated and 10 mu L of the samples were added to each well. The supernatants were collected for NO detection by the Griess reaction. Data were analysed statistically by one-way anova and Tukey`s test at 5% significance level. Results The mean and SE (in mu mol L-1) values of NO release were: I - 10.48 +/- 0.58, II - 6.41 +/- 0.90, III - 10.2 +/- 0.60, IV - 8.35 +/- 0.40, V - 10.40 +/- 0.53, VI - 3.75 +/- 0.70, VII - 6.44 +/- 0.60; and the values for the same experiment repeated after 1 week were: I - 21.20 +/- 1.50, II - 9.10 +/- 0.60, III - 19.50 +/- 1.00, IV - 18.50 +/- 0.60, V - 21.30 +/- 0.90, VI - 2.00 +/- 0.20, VII - 6.80 +/- 1.70. There was no significant difference (P > 0.05) between the control and the laser-treated groups (III, IV and V), or comparing groups II, VI and VII to each other (P > 0.05). Group I had significantly higher NO release than group II (P < 0.05). Groups II and VI had similar NO release (P > 0.05). Conclusions Calcium hydroxide inactivated the bacterial endotoxin (LPS) whereas none of the Er:YAG laser parameter settings had the same effectiveness.

Use of the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridisation technique for in vivo detection of cariogenic microorganisms on metallic brackets, with or without use of an antimicrobial agent

Objective: Using checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridisation (CDDH) assay, this randomised clinical study evaluated the contamination of metallic brackets by four cariogenic bacterial strains (Streptococcus mutans, Streptococcus sobrinus, Lactobacillus casei and Lactobacillus acidophilus) and the efficacy of 0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate (CHX) mouthwashes in reducing bacterial contamination. Methods: Thirty-nine 11-33-year-old patients under treatment with fixed orthodontic appliances were enrolled in the study and had 2 new metallic brackets bonded to premolars. Nineteen patients used a 0.12% CHX mouthwash (Periogard (R)) and 20 patients used a placebo mouthwash (control) twice a week. After 30 days, the brackets were removed and samples were obtained for analysis by CDDH. Data were analysed statistically by the Kruskal-Wallis test (alpha = 0.05) using the SAS software. Results: S. mutans, S. sobrinus, L. casei and L. acidophilus were detected in 100% of the samples from both groups. However, brackets of the control group were more heavily contaminated by S. mutans and S. sobrinus (P < 0.01). In the experimental group, although all counts decreased after rinsing with the chlorhexidine solution, there was significant difference only for S. mutans (P = 0.03). Conclusions: The use of 0.12% chlorhexidine gluconate mouthwashes can be useful in clinical practice to reduce the levels of cariogenic microorganisms in patients under treatment with fixed orthodontic appliances. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection of urease in the cell wall and membranes from leaf tissues of bromeliad species

Urea is an important nitrogen source for some bromeliad species, and in nature it is derived from the excretion of amphibians, which visit or live inside the tank water. Its assimilation is dependent on the hydrolysis by urease (EC: 3.5.1.5), and although this enzyme has been extensively studied to date, little information is available about its cellular location. In higher plants, this enzyme is considered to be present in the cytoplasm. However, there is evidence that urease is secreted by the bromeliad Vriesea gigantea, implying that this enzyme is at least temporarily located in the plasmatic membrane and cell wall. In this article, urease activity was measured in different cell fractions using leaf tissues of two bromeliad species: the tank bromeliad V. gigantea and the terrestrial bromeliad Ananas comosus (L.) Merr. In both species, urease was present in the cell wall and membrane fractions, besides the cytoplasm. Moreover, a considerable difference was observed between the species: while V. gigantea had 40% of the urease activity detected in the membranes and cell wall fractions, less than 20% were found in the same fractions in A. comosus. The high proportion of urease found in cell wall and membranes in V. gigantea was also investigated by cytochemical detection and immunoreaction assay. Both approaches confirmed the enzymatic assay. We suggest this physiological characteristic allows tank bromeliads to survive in a nitrogen-limited environment, utilizing urea rapidly and efficiently and competing successfully for this nitrogen source against microorganisms that live in the tank water.