Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.

Improving the outcomes of foot and ankle surgery. Professional impact of the Australasian College of Podiatric Surgeons' audit tool

Background Surgery is an example of expanded practice scope that enhances podiatry and incorporates inter-professional collaboration. By 2050 demand for foot and ankle procedures is predicted to rise nationally by 61.9%. Performance management of this increase motivated the development of an online audit tool. Developed in collaboration with the Australasian College of Podiatric Surgeons (ACPS), the ACPS audit tool provides real-time data capture and reporting. It is the first audit tool designed in Australia to support and improve the outcomes of foot and ankle surgery. Methods Audit activity in general, orthopaedic, plastic and podiatric surgery was examined using a case study design. Audit participation enablers and barriers were explored. Case study results guided a Delphi survey of international experts experienced or associated with foot and ankle surgery. Delphi survey-derived consensus informed modification of a generic data set from the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (RACS). Based on the Delphi survey findings the ACPS online audit tool was developed and piloted. Reliability and validity of data entry and usability of this new tool was then assessed with an online survey. Results The case study found surgeon attitudes and behaviours positively impacted audit participation, and also indicated that audit data should be: (1) available in real time, (2) identify practice change, (3) applicable for safety and quality management, and; (4) useful for peer review discussion. The Delphi process established consensus on audit variables to be captured, including the modified RACS generic data set. 382 cases of foot and ankle surgery were captured across 3 months using the new tool. Data entry was found to be valid and reliable. Real-time outcome reporting and practice change identification impacted positively on safety and quality management and assisted peer review discussion. An online survey showed high levels of usability. Conclusions Surgeon contribution to audit tool development resulted in 100% audit participation. The data from the ACPS audit tool supported the ACPS submission to the Medical Services Advisory Committee to list podiatric surgery under Medicare, an outcome noted by the Federal Minister of Health.

Unsteady flow of a dilute suspension in a semi-infinite contracting or expanding pipe

In the present paper an exact similar solution of the Navier-Stokes equation for unsteady flow of a dilute suspension in a semi-infinite contracting or expanding circular pipe is presented. The effects of the Schmidt number (Sc), Reynolds number (|ε|), the volume fraction (α) and the relaxation time (τ) of the particulate phase on the flow characteristics are examined. The presence of the solid particles has been observed to influence the flow behaviour significantly. These solutions are valid down to the state of a completely collapsed pipe, since the nonlinearity is retained fully. The results may help understanding the flow near the heart and certain forced contractions or expansions of valved veins.

Transmission loss analysis of rectangular expansion chamber with arbitrary location of inlet/outlet by means of Green's functions

Transmission loss of a rectangular expansion chamber, the inlet and outlet of which are situated at arbitrary locations of the chamber, i.e., the side wall or the face of the chamber, are analyzed here based on the Green's function of a rectangular cavity with homogeneous boundary conditions. The rectangular chamber Green's function is expressed in terms of a finite number of rigid rectangular cavity mode shapes. The inlet and outlet ports are modeled as uniform velocity pistons. If the size of the piston is small compared to wavelength, then the plane wave excitation is a valid assumption. The velocity potential inside the chamber is expressed by superimposing the velocity potentials of two different configurations. The first configuration is a piston source at the inlet port and a rigid termination at the outlet, and the second one is a piston at the outlet with a rigid termination at the inlet. Pressure inside the chamber is derived from velocity potentials using linear momentum equation. The average pressure acting on the pistons at the inlet and outlet locations is estimated by integrating the acoustic pressure over the piston area in the two constituent configurations. The transfer matrix is derived from the average pressure values and thence the transmission loss is calculated. The results are verified against those in the literature where use has been made of modal expansions and also numerical models (FEM fluid). The transfer matrix formulation for yielding wall rectangular chambers has been derived incorporating the structural–acoustic coupling. Parametric studies are conducted for different inlet and outlet configurations, and the various phenomena occurring in the TL curves that cannot be explained by the classical plane wave theory, are discussed.

Hydrodynamic pressure on a dam with a periodically corrugated reservoir bed

The problem of determining the hydrodynamic pressure, caused by earthquake forces, on a dam with a vertical upstream face and a periodically corrugated reservoir bed is solved approximately by employing a Fourier cosine transform technique to the linearised equations of inviscid and incompressible flow. A particular case of the present problem giving rise to results valid for dams with flat reservoir beds is shown to produce known results as a check of the method used.

Everyday beliefs about food and health

The series of studies addresses several everyday beliefs about food and health from the perspective of everyday thinking and paranormal beliefs. They are "you are what you eat" beliefs, attitudes towards genetically modified and organic foods, and belief in alternative medicine. The survey studies included from 239 to 3261 Finnish participants. It was found that food consumption can have far-stretching consequences for the impressions of the eater in a "you are what you eat" manner. The results also demonstrated that belief in alternative medicine was related to belief in the paranormal, as were to a lesser degree attitudes towards genetically modified and organic foods. The study also addressed paranormal beliefs and belief in alternative medicine from the perspective of category observance. Paranormal believers as well as believers in alternative medicine were much more liberal than skeptics in violating categorical boundaries and attributed, for example, intentionality (mental) to body growth (biological) and life (biological) to energy (physical). In addition, the study addressed the relation of these attitudes and beliefs with preferred thinking style. The results demonstrated that belief in alternative medicine was especially appealing to intuitive thinkers, while rational thinking was unrelated to it. The same pattern was demonstrated for negative attitudes towards genetically modified food and positive attitudes towards organic food. In addition, it was demonstrated, however, that such unscientific notions may exist not instead of but parallel with "better knowledge". In sum, the present thesis contributes to the understanding of superstitious elements in various everyday attitudes and beliefs, and investigates their relationship with general inclinations towards belief in the paranormal. It appears that some very common everyday beliefs and attitudes about food and health contain elements of a superstitious nature. Involving conceptual enmeshment they go beyond mere associations, and can coincide with scientifically valid views on the same topic.

Resolving cryptic species complexes of major tephritid pests

An FAO/IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project (CRP) on “Resolution of Cryptic Species Complexes of Tephritid Pests to Overcome Constraints to SIT Application and International Trade” was conducted from 2010 to 2015. As captured in the CRP title, the objective was to undertake targeted research into the systematics and diagnostics of taxonomically challenging fruit fly groups of economic importance. The scientific output was the accurate alignment of biological species with taxonomic names; which led to the applied outcome of assisting FAO and IAEA Member States in overcoming technical constraints to the application of the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) against pest fruit flies and the facilitation of international agricultural trade. Close to 50 researchers from over 20 countries participated in the CRP, using coordinated, multidisciplinary research to address, within an integrative taxonomic framework, cryptic species complexes of major tephritid pests. The following progress was made for the four complexes selected and studied: Anastrepha fraterculus complex – Eight morphotypes and their geographic and ecological distributions in Latin America were defined. The morphotypes can be considered as distinct biological species on the basis of differences in karyotype, sexual incompatibility, post-mating isolation, cuticular hydrocarbon, pheromone, and molecular analyses. Discriminative taxonomic tools using linear and geometric morphometrics of both adult and larval morphology were developed for this complex. Bactrocera dorsalis complex – Based on genetic, cytogenetic, pheromonal, morphometric, and behavioural data, which showed no or only minor variation between the Asian/African pest fruit flies Bactrocera dorsalis, B. papayae, B. philippinensis and B. invadens, the latter three species were synonymized with B. dorsalis. Of the five target pest taxa studied, only B. dorsalis and B. carambolae remain as scientifically valid names. Molecular and pheromone markers are now available to distinguish B. dorsalis from B. carambolae. Ceratitis FAR Complex (C. fasciventris, C. anonae, C. rosa) – Morphology, morphometry, genetic, genomic, pheromone, cuticular hydrocarbon, ecology, behaviour, and developmental physiology data provide evidence for the existence of five different entities within this fruit fly complex from the African region. These are currently recognised as Ceratitis anonae, C. fasciventris (F1 and F2), C. rosa and a new species related to C. rosa (R2). The biological limits within C. fasciventris (i.e. F1 and F2) are not fully resolved. Microsatellites markers and morphological identification tools for the adult males of the five different FAR entities were developed based on male leg structures. Zeugodacus cucurbitae (formerly Bactrocera (Zeugodacus) cucurbitae) – Genetic variability was studied among melon fly populations throughout its geographic range in Africa and the Asia/Pacific region and found to be limited. Cross-mating studies indicated no incompatibility or sexual isolation. Host preference and genetic studies showed no evidence for the existence of host races. It was concluded that the melon fly does not represent a cryptic species complex, neither with regard to geographic distribution nor to host range. Nevertheless, the higher taxonomic classification under which this species had been placed, by the time the CRP was started, was found to be paraphyletic; as a result the subgenus Zeugodacus was elevated to genus level.

Surface acoustic waves of finite amplitude excited by a monochromatic line source

A technique for obtaining a uniformly valid solution to the problem of nonlinear propagation of surface acoustic waves excited by a monochromatic line source is presented. The method of solution is an extension of the method of strained coordinates wherein both the dependent and independent variables are expanded in perturbation series. A special transformation is proposed for the independent variables so as to make the expansions uniformly valid and also to satisfy all the boundary conditions. This perturbation procedure, carried out to the second order, yields a solution containing a second harmonic surface wave whose amplitude and phase exhibit an oscillatory variation along the direction of propagation. In addition, the solution also contains a second harmonic bulk wave of constant amplitude but varying phase propagating into the medium.

Exploring the experiences and conceptions of good teaching in higher education : Development of a questionnaire for assessing students' approaches to learning and experiences of the teaching-learning environment

The aim of this dissertation was to adapt a questionnaire for assessing students’ approaches to learning and their experiences of the teaching-learning environment. The aim was to explore the validity of the modified Experiences of Teaching and Learning Questionnaire (ETLQ) by examining how the instruments measure the underlying dimensions of student experiences and their learning. The focus was on the relation between students’ experiences of their teaching-learning environment and their approaches to learning. Moreover, the relation between students’ experiences and students’ and teachers’ conceptions of good teaching was examined. In Study I the focus was on the use of the ETLQ in two different contexts: Finnish and British. The study aimed to explore the similarities and differences between the factor structures that emerged from both data sets. The results showed that the factor structures concerning students’ experiences of their teaching-learning environment and their approaches to learning were highly similar in the two contexts. Study I also examined how students’ experiences of the teaching-learning environment are related to their approaches to learning in the two contexts. The results showed that students’ positive experiences of their teaching-learning environment were positively related to their deep approach to learning and negatively to the surface approach to learning in both the Finnish and British data sets. This result was replicated in Study II, which examined the relation between approaches to learning and experiences of the teaching-learning environment on a group level. Furthermore, Study II aimed to explore students’ approaches to learning and their experiences of the teaching-learning environment in different disciplines. The results showed that the deep approach to learning was more common in the soft sciences than in the hard sciences. In Study III, students’ conceptions of good teaching were explored by using qualitative methods, more precisely, by open-ended questions. The aim was to examine students’ conceptions, disciplinary differences and their relation to students’ approaches to learning. The focus was on three disciplines, which differed in terms of students’ experiences of their teaching-learning environment. The results showed that students’ conceptions of good teaching were in line with the theory of good teaching and there were disciplinary differences in their conceptions. Study IV examined university teachers’ conceptions of good teaching, which corresponded to the learning-focused approach to teaching. Furthermore, another aim in this doctoral dissertation was to compare the students’ and teachers’ conceptions of good teaching, the results of which showed that these conceptions appear to have similarities. The four studies indicated that the ETLQ appears to be a sufficiently robust measurement instrument in different contexts. Moreover, its strength is its ability to be at the same time a valid research instrument and a practical tool for enhancing the quality of students’ learning. In addition, the four studies emphasise that in order to enhance teaching and learning in higher education, various perspectives have to be taken into account. This study sheds light on the interaction between students’ approaches to learning, their conceptions of good teaching, their experiences of the teaching-learning environment, and finally, the disciplinary culture.

Cognitive deficits and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test performance among patients with multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, inflammatory disease of the central nervous system, characterized especially by myelin and axon damage. Cognitive impairment in MS is common but difficult to detect without a neuropsychological examination. Valid and reliable methods are needed in clinical practice and research to detect deficits, follow their natural evolution, and verify treatment effects. The Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) is a measure of sustained and divided attention, working memory, and information processing speed, and it is widely used in MS patients neuropsychological evaluation. Additionally, the PASAT is the sole cognitive measure in an assessment tool primarly designed for MS clinical trials, the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC). The aims of the present study were to determine a) the frequency, characteristics, and evolution of cognitive impairment among relapsing-remitting MS patients, and b) the validity and reliability of the PASAT in measuring cognitive performance in MS patients. The subjects were 45 relapsing-remitting MS patients from Seinäjoki Central Hospital, Department of Neurology and 48 healthy controls. Both groups underwent comprehensive neuropsychological assessments, including the PASAT, twice in a one-year follow-up, and additionally a sample of 10 patients and controls were evaluated with the PASAT in serial assessments five times in one month. The frequency of cognitive dysfunction among relapsing-remitting MS patients in the present study was 42%. Impairments were characterized especially by slowed information processing speed and memory deficits. During the one-year follow-up, the cognitive performance was relatively stable among MS patients on a group level. However, the practice effects in cognitive tests were less pronounced among MS patients than healthy controls. At an individual level the spectrum of MS patients cognitive deficits was wide in regards to their characteristics, severity, and evolution. The PASAT was moderately accurate in detecting MS-associated cognitive impairment, and 69% of patients were correctly classified as cognitively impaired or unimpaired when comprehensive neuropsychological assessment was used as a "gold standard". Self-reported nervousness and poor arithmetical skills seemed to explain misclassifications. MS-related fatigue was objectively demonstrated as fading performance towards the end of the test. Despite the observed practice effect, the reliability of the PASAT was excellent, and it was sensitive to the cognitive decline taking place during the follow-up in a subgroup of patients. The PASAT can be recommended for use in the neuropsychological assessment of MS patients. The test is fairly sensitive, but less specific; consequently, the reasons for low scores have to be carefully identified before interpreting them as clinically significant.

Bed Shear from Velocity Profiles: A New Approach

A new binary law of velocity distribution has been developed to describe the velocity profile for the entire flow region. The law is a combination of logarithmic law, valid in the wall (inner) region, and parabolic law, valid in the core (outer) region of the flow. The validity of the law has been established based on earlier data on flat plates, rough and smooth pipes and experimental data obtained from rigid-walled open channels with plane sand beds. A procedure of estimating bed shear stress from the proposed law of velocity distribution using the measured velocity profile has been evolved. Bed shear estimates made according to this procedure are in agreement with the values obtained from uniform flow analysis in the case of open channel flow over a sediment bed. The proposed method of estimating the bed shear stress from the observed velocity profiles is found to be particularly useful in cases where it is difficult to determine precisely the true bed level, such as in the case of flow over sediment beds.

An Exact Analysis of Unsteady Convective Diffusion in an Annular Pipe

An exact solution to the unsteady convective diffusion equation for the dispersion of a solute in a fully developed laminar flow in an annular pipe is obtained. Generalized dispersion model which is valid for all time after the injection of solute in the flow is used to evaluate the dispersion coefficients as functions of time. It is observed that the axial dispersion decreases with an increase in the radius of the inner cylinder.

Current CAPE-15: A measure of recent psychotic-like experiences and associated distress

Aim Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) are common in young people and are associated with both distress and adverse outcomes. The Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences-Positive Scale (CAPE-P) provides a 20-item measure of lifetime PLEs. A 15-item revision of this scale was recently published (CAPE-P15). Although the CAPE-P has been used to assess PLEs in the last 12 months, there is no version of the CAPE for assessing more recent PLEs (e.g. 3 months). This study aimed to determine the reliability and validity of the current CAPE-P15 and assess its relationship with current distress. Method A cross-sectional online survey of 489 university students (17–25 years) assessed lifetime and current substance use, current distress, and lifetime and 3-month PLEs on the CAPE-P15. Results Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the current CAPE-P15 retained the same three-factor structure as the lifetime version consisting of persecutory ideation, bizarre experiences and perceptual abnormalities. The total score of the current version was lower than the lifetime version, but the two were strongly correlated (r = .64). The current version was highly predictive of generalized distress (r = .52) and indices that combined symptom frequency with associated distress did not confer greater predictive power than frequency alone. Conclusion This study provided preliminary data that the current CAPE-P15 provides a valid and reliable measure of current PLEs. The current CAPE-P15 is likely to have substantial practical utility if it is later shown to be sensitive to change, especially in prevention and early intervention for mental disorders in young people.

Development of near infrared analysis of faeces to estimate non-grass proportions in diets selected by cattle grazing tropical pastures

Grass (monocots) and non-grass (dicots) proportions in ruminant diets are important nutritionally because the non-grasses are usually higher in nutritive value, particularly protein, than the grasses, especially in tropical pastures. For ruminants grazing tropical pastures where the grasses are C-4 species and most non-grasses are C-3 species, the ratio of C-13/C-12 in diet and faeces, measured as delta C-13 parts per thousand, is proportional to dietary non-grass%. This paper describes the development of a faecal near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy calibration equation for predicting faecal delta C-13 from which dietary grass and non-grass proportions can be calculated. Calibration development used cattle faeces derived from diets containing only C-3 non-grass and C-4 grass components, and a series of expansion and validation steps was employed to develop robustness and predictive reliability. The final calibration equation contained 1637 samples and faecal delta C-13 range (parts per thousand) of [12.27]-[27.65]. Calibration statistics were: standard error of calibration (SEC) of 0.78, standard error of cross-validation (SECV) of 0.80, standard deviation (SD) of reference values of 3.11 and R-2 of 0.94. Validation statistics for the final calibration equation applied to 60 samples were: standard error of prediction (SEP) of 0.87, bias of -0.15, R-2 of 0.92 and RPD of 3.16. The calibration equation was also tested on faeces from diets containing C-4 non-grass species or temperate C-3 grass species. Faecal delta C-13 predictions indicated that the spectral basis of the calibration was not related to C-13/C-12 ratios per se but to consistent differences between grasses and non-grasses in chemical composition and that the differences were modified by photosynthetic pathway. Thus, although the calibration equation could not be used to make valid faecal delta C-13 predictions when the diet contained either C-3 grass or C-4 non-grass, it could be used to make useful estimates of dietary non-grass proportions. It could also be ut :sed to make useful estimates of non-grass in mixed C-3 grass/non-grass diets by applying a modified formula to calculate non-grass from predicted faecal delta C-13. The development of a robust faecal-NIR calibration equation for estimating non-grass proportions in the diets of grazing cattle demonstrated a novel and useful application of NIR spectroscopy in agriculture.

Double-authentication-preventing signatures

Digital signatures are often used by trusted authorities to make unique bindings between a subject and a digital object; for example, certificate authorities certify a public key belongs to a domain name, and time-stamping authorities certify that a certain piece of information existed at a certain time. Traditional digital signature schemes however impose no uniqueness conditions, so a trusted authority could make multiple certifications for the same subject but different objects, be it intentionally, by accident, or following a (legal or illegal) coercion. We propose the notion of a double-authentication-preventing signature, in which a value to be signed is split into two parts: a subject and a message. If a signer ever signs two different messages for the same subject, enough information is revealed to allow anyone to compute valid signatures on behalf of the signer. This double-signature forgeability property discourages signers from misbehaving—a form of self-enforcement—and would give binding authorities like CAs some cryptographic arguments to resist legal coercion. We give a generic construction using a new type of trapdoor functions with extractability properties, which we show can be instantiated using the group of sign-agnostic quadratic residues modulo a Blum integer; we show an additional application of these new extractable trapdoor functions to standard digital signatures.