Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Vertebrates Limb Geometry in the Simplex space

A novel metric comparison of the appendicular skeleton (fore and hind limb) of different vertebrates using the Compositional Data Analysis (CDA) methodological approach it’s presented. 355 specimens belonging in various taxa of Dinosauria (Sauropodomorpha, Theropoda, Ornithischia and Aves) and Mammalia (Prothotheria, Metatheria and Eutheria) were analyzed with CDA. A special focus has been put on Sauropodomorpha dinosaurs and the Aitchinson distance has been used as a measure of disparity in limb elements proportions to infer some aspects of functional morphology

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding due to Dieulafoy vascular lesion

One patient with massive upper GI bleeding due to Dieulafoy vascular lesion treated at our institution is reported. In this case, adequate control of bleeding could not be achieved by endoscopicmethods, and selective arteriography and embolization was required. A review of this uncommon cause of gastrointestinal bleeding and its management is presented.

Uso de prótesis en amputados de miembros superiores

La utilización de las prótesis de miembro superior se ha convertido en un problema no solo en Colombia sino en el mundo. La experiencia con la prescripción de prótesis de miembro superior nos ha mostrado que en general los amputados las utilizan poco en las actividades

Anestesia regional y periférica guiada por ultrasonido en el paciente critico

El presente trabajo es un capítulo de libro titulado “Anestesia Regional y Periférica Guiada por Ultrasonido en el Paciente Crítico” que será incluido en la última edición del libro “Manual de Ultrasonido en Terapia Intensiva y Emergencias” cuyo editor es el Doctor José de Jesús Rincón Salas y que será publicado por la Editorial Prado de México para distribución latinoamericana desde dicho país. Por solicitud del editor y teniendo en cuenta el enfoque del libro, el presente trabajo está dirigido a estudiantes de formación, médicos graduados y especialistas en las áreas de cuidado intensivo, anestesiología, dolor, medicina interna y medicina de urgencias. Tiene como propósito empapar de conocimientos necesarios y prácticos en anestesia regional a personas que usualmente no han tenido contacto con la anestesia regional, pues desafortunadamente sólo en los últimos años ha sido posible que la anestesia regional haya comenzado a salir de las salas de cirugía, ámbito donde ha estado confinada tradicionalmente. El lenguaje utilizado es sencillo y el capítulo ha sido escrito para que sea fácil de leer y consultar, dejando así mensajes muy claros sobre la utilidad, viabilidad e implicaciones que tiene el uso de anestesia regional guiada por ultrasonido en cuidado intensivo. Los autores esperamos que de esta manera, el presente capítulo permita continuar superando los obstáculos que se interponen entre los invaluables beneficios de la anestesia regional y los pacientes de cuidado intensivo que necesitan de ella.

Multiple intelligences : upper primary : a thematic approach.

La diversificación del desarrollo cognitivo que preconiza la teoría de las inteligencias múltiples de Howard Gardner ha venido a indicar líneas de acción pedagógica adaptadas a las características del individuo. Este recurso ofrece enseñanza y oportunidades de aprendizaje utilizando las ocho inteligencias múltiples: lingüística, lógica-matemática, corporal y kinésica, visual y espacial, musical y ritmica, interpersonal, intrapersonal, naturalista. Contiene seis unidades de trabajo: las especies en peligro de extinción, los desastres, las civilizaciones antiguas, las cuestiones medioambientales, el deporte, el desarrollo personal. Hay un texto informativo para los alumnos, sobre cada tema, y notas para el profesor que acompañan a cada actividad, incluyendo el objetivo, enlaces al plan de estudios, preparación, respuestas y sugerencias de actividades adicionales. Al final de cada unidad de trabajo hay una hoja para que el alumno autoevalúe sus ocho inteligencias.

Listening activities : photocopiable resource book. 2 : Intermediate upper-intermediate.

Recurso complementario para los jóvenes que aprenden el idioma inglés en el nivel intermedio. Contiene hojas de ejercicios para fotocopiar que son independientes y que pueden utilizarse en el orden deseado y aunque no tienen una progresión sistemática en el nivel del lenguaje, las primeras hojas son las más fáciles. El índice de contenidos da una visión general rápida de las funciones, temas y área del vocabulario, gramática y actividad que se practica.

English result : upper-intermediate photocopiable resource book.

Libro y DVD con material de apoyo para el profesor en la enseñanza del inglés como lengua extranjera en el nivel intermedio-alto (B2 del marco común europeo de referencia para las lenguas). Contiene cuarenta actividades para practicar gramática y vocabulario, dando la oportunidad a los alumnos de describir, explicar, especular, debatir y preguntar en inglés. Y quince hojas de trabajo para usar con los clips documentales y entrevistas reales del DVD. Incluye instrucciones completas para el profesor de cada actividad y las soluciones a los ejercicios.

Dynamics and mixing in the Upper Ocean Layer

S'estudia la resposta de la capa de barreja oceànica al forçament atmosfèric considerant dades obtingudes durant 12 dies d'abril del 2001 a 42 estacions a través de l'Atlàntic nord seguint aproximadament la latitud de 53ºN. Aquestes dades inclouen, a més de variables atmosfèriques, mesures de CTD, velocitats amb ADCP i dades de microestructura obtingudes amb un perfilador de caiguda lliure. En aquest últim cas, s'han desenvolupat tècniques de processament de les dades que també es presenten aquí. El transsecte estudiat segueix la posició climatològica del rotacional mitjà anual del vent igual a zero i travessa el corrent del Labrador i algunes branques i meandres del Corrent Atlàntic Nord. El forçament atmosfèric es va caracteritzar per vents intensos i fluxos superficials de calor negatius, tot i que, tal com es dedueix de la comparació del gruix de la capa de barreja amb la longitud de Monin-Obukov, la barreja induïda pel vent va dominar sobre la convectiva durant tot el transsecte.

Basic world geography for upper school students

This paper contains curriculum for teaching of world geography.

Site Safety and Food Affect Movements of Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) Migrating Through the Upper Bay of Fundy

The upper Bay of Fundy is a critical stopover site for Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) during their fall migration. However, little is known about factors that influence selection of feeding and roosting sites by these birds, or the extent to which birds move between different sites during their time in the region. Using radio-telemetry, we studied movement patterns, examined habitat use, and tested hypotheses associated with factors influencing foraging and roost-site selection. Movements of radio-tagged sandpipers were tracked in the upper Bay of Fundy in August 2004 and 2005. In 2004, sandpipers from the Minas Basin, Nova Scotia and Chignecto Bay, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, were tracked, and in 2005, sandpipers were tracked only in Chignecto Bay. Sandpipers were highly mobile in both the Minas Basin 2004 and Chignecto Bay 2005, making daily movements of up to 20 km between foraging and roosting sites, although very little movement was detected in Chignecto Bay in 2004. Migrating sandpipers appeared to select foraging sites based on relative safety, as measured by distance to cover, provided that these sites offered an adequate food supply. Similarly, roosting sandpipers preferred sites that were far from nearby trees that might offer cover to predators. This preference for safe sites became more apparent later in their stay in the Bay of Fundy, when birds were heavier and, therefore, possibly more vulnerable to predation. Semipalmated Sandpipers appear to be flexible during their time in the upper Bay of Fundy, displaying year-to-year and site-to-site variability in movement and mudflat usage. Therefore, multiple, synchronized population counts should be conducted at known roost sites in order to more accurately estimate Semipalmated Sandpiper abundance in this region. Furthermore, in a highly dynamic system where food can be variable, landscape features such as distance to cover may be important factors to consider when selecting candidate sites for shorebird conservation measures.

Ice supersaturation in the ECMWF integrated forecast system

A parametrization for ice supersaturation is introduced into the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS), compatible with the cloud scheme that allows partial cloud coverage. It is based on the simple, but often justifiable, diagnostic assumption that the ice nucleation and subsequent depositional growth time-scales are short compared to the model time step, thus supersaturation is only permitted in the clear-sky portion of the grid cell. Results from model integrations using the new scheme are presented, which is demonstrated to increase upper-tropospheric humidity, decrease high-level cloud cover and, to a much lesser extent, cloud ice amounts, all as expected from simple arguments. Evaluation of the relative distribution of supersaturated humidity amounts shows good agreement with the observed climatology derived from in situ aircraft observations. With the new scheme, the global distribution of frequency of occurrence of supersaturated regions compares well with remotely sensed microwave limb sounder (MLS) data, with the most marked errors of underprediction occurring in regions where the model is known to underpredict deep convection. Finally, it is also demonstrated that the new scheme leads to improved predictions of permanent contrail cloud over southern England, which indirectly implies upper-tropospheric humidity fields are better represented for this region.

Equatorial Kelvin waves as revealed by EOS Microwave Limb Sounder observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses: Evidence for slow Kelvin waves of zonal wave number 3

[1] Temperature and ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the EOS Aura satellite are used to study equatorial wave activity in the autumn of 2005. In contrast to previous observations for the same season in other years, the temperature anomalies in the middle and lower tropical stratosphere are found to be characterized by a strong wave-like eastward progression with zonal wave number equal to 3. Extended empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the wave 3 components detected in the temperature anomalies correspond to a slow Kelvin wave with a period of 8 days and a phase speed of 19 m/s. Fluctuations associated with this Kelvin wave mode are also apparent in ozone profiles. Moreover, as expected by linear theory, the ozone fluctuations observed in the lower stratosphere are in phase with the temperature perturbations, and peak around 20–30 hPa where the mean ozone mixing ratios have the steepest vertical gradient. A search for other Kelvin wave modes has also been made using both the MLS observations and the analyses from one experiment where MLS ozone profiles are assimilated into the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data assimilation system via a 6-hourly 3D var scheme. Our results show that the characteristics of the wave activity detected in the ECMWF temperature and ozone analyses are in good agreement with MLS data.