Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Economic rationality and ethical behavior

This paper argues that economic rationality and ethical behavior cannotbe reduced one to the other, casting doubts on the validity of formulaslike 'profit is ethical' or 'ethics pays'. In order to express ethicaldilemmas as opposing economic interest with ethical concerns, we proposea model of rational behavior that combines these two irreducible dimensions in an open but not arbitrary manner. Behaviors that are neither ethicalnor profitable are considered irrational (non-arbitrariness). However,behaviors that are profitable but unethical, and behaviors that are ethicalbut not profitable, are all treated as rational (openness). Combiningethical concerns with economic interest, ethical business is in turn anoptimal form of rationality between venality and sacrifice.Because every one prefers to communicate that he acts ethically, ethicalbusiness remains ambiguous until some economic interest is actuallysacrificed. We argue however that ethical business has an interest indemonstrating its consistency between communication and behavior by atransparent attitude. On the other hand, venal behaviors must remainconfidential to hide the corresponding lack of consistency. Thisdiscursive approach based on transparency and confidentiality helpsto further distinguish between ethical and unethical business behaviors.

Isolating DNA from sexual assault cases: a comparison of standard methods with a nuclease-based approach.

AbstractText BACKGROUND: Profiling sperm DNA present on vaginal swabs taken from rape victims often contributes to identifying and incarcerating rapists. Large amounts of the victim's epithelial cells contaminate the sperm present on swabs, however, and complicate this process. The standard method for obtaining relatively pure sperm DNA from a vaginal swab is to digest the epithelial cells with Proteinase K in order to solubilize the victim's DNA, and to then physically separate the soluble DNA from the intact sperm by pelleting the sperm, removing the victim's fraction, and repeatedly washing the sperm pellet. An alternative approach that does not require washing steps is to digest with Proteinase K, pellet the sperm, remove the victim's fraction, and then digest the residual victim's DNA with a nuclease. METHODS: The nuclease approach has been commercialized in a product, the Erase Sperm Isolation Kit (PTC Labs, Columbia, MO, USA), and five crime laboratories have tested it on semen-spiked female buccal swabs in a direct comparison with their standard methods. Comparisons have also been performed on timed post-coital vaginal swabs and evidence collected from sexual assault cases. RESULTS: For the semen-spiked buccal swabs, Erase outperformed the standard methods in all five laboratories and in most cases was able to provide a clean male profile from buccal swabs spiked with only 1,500 sperm. The vaginal swabs taken after consensual sex and the evidence collected from rape victims showed a similar pattern of Erase providing superior profiles. CONCLUSIONS: In all samples tested, STR profiles of the male DNA fractions obtained with Erase were as good as or better than those obtained using the standard methods.

Occurrence, biology and behavior of Liogenys fuscus Blanchard (Insecta, Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Due to the importance of some Pleurosticti Scarabaeidae as agricultural pests allied to information absence on the species that occur in Brazilian Central-West region, on studies occurrence, biology and behavior on this group of scarabs were conducted. Biology and behavioral studies started with Liogenys fuscus Blanchard, 1850 (Melolonthinae), a very common species and were developed in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul. Adult beetles were collected from light traps from February 2005 to January 2007, at the experimental farm of the Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul in Aquidauana (UEMS). In the laboratory adults were placed in plastic containers with soil with sprouts of Brachiaria decumbens Stapf (Poaceae). Eggs were transferred to a climatized chamber at 26 ± 1º C with a 12hourlight, 12hour darkness photoperiod cycle. Adult flight activity occurred in August and in September to December from 06:00 pm to 06:00 am, with the largest number of individuals flying from 07:00 to 10:00 pm. Eggs measured 1 x 1.5 mm and were laid individually or in groups in soil chambers; eggs were initially white and became yellow near hatching. The embryonic period lasted 14.3 days; first, second and third instars lasted 28.5, 48.8, and 68.2 days, respectively. The prepupal period lasted 120.2 days and the prepupa stayed inactive in soil. The mean duration of pupal stage was 27.5 days and the mean longevity of adults was 23.6 days. In laboratory the calling behavior between males and females was observed; copulation lasted, in mean, 25 minutes.

An evaluation of the life-cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior

In this paper we explore the effects of the minimum pension program on welfare andretirement in Spain. This is done with a stylized life-cycle model which provides a convenient analytical characterization of optimal behavior. We use data from the Spanish Social Security to estimate the behavioral parameters of the model and then simulate the changes induced by the minimum pension in aggregate retirement patterns. The impact is substantial: there is threefold increase in retirement at 60 (the age of first entitlement) with respect to the economy without minimum pensions, and total early retirement (before or at 60) is almost 50% larger.

Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Many experiments have shown that human subjects do not necessarily behave in line with game theoretic assumptions and solution concepts. The reasons for this non-conformity are multiple. In this paper we study the argument whether a deviation from game theory is because subjects are rational, but doubt that others are rational as well, compared to the argument that subjects, in general, are boundedly rational themselves. To distinguish these two hypotheses, we study behavior in repeated 2-person and many-person Beauty-Contest-Games which are strategically different from one another. We analyze four different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the other player s choice and adaptation rather than self-initiated rational reasoning.

Optimal contracts, adverse selection and social preferences: An experiment

It has long been standard in agency theory to search for incentive-compatible mechanisms on the assumption that people care only about their own material wealth. However, this assumption is clearly refuted by numerous experiments, and we feel that it may be useful to consider nonpecuniary utility in mechanism design and contract theory. Accordingly, we devise an experiment to explore optimal contracts in an adverse-selection context. A principal proposes one of three contract menus, each of which offers a choice of two incentive-compatible contracts, to two agents whose types are unknown to the principal. The agents know the set of possible menus, and choose to either accept one of the two contracts offered in the proposed menu or to reject the menu altogether; a rejection by either agent leads to lower (and equal) reservation payoffs for all parties. While all three possible menus favor the principal, they do so to varying degrees. We observe numerous rejections of the more lopsided menus, and approach an equilibrium where one of the more equitable contract menus (which one depends on the reservation payoffs) is proposed and agents accept a contract, selecting actions according to their types. Behavior is largely consistent with all recent models of social preferences, strongly suggesting there is value in considering nonpecuniary utility in agency theory.

As Línguas de Cabo Verde: uma Radiografia Sociolinguística

Esta dissertação constitui um estudo de caso, exploratório e de carácter descritivo. Tem como objectivo fazer uma radiografia sociolinguística de Cabo Verde, particularmente centrada no actual uso das duas línguas faladas no arquipélago, o português (PCV) e o crioulo cabo-verdiano (LCV). A linha de pesquisa adoptada inspira-se fortemente nos estudos de macrosociolinguística, tomando a situação de contacto de línguas, caracterizadora da sociedade cabo-verdiana, como ponto de partida para o enquadramento de um conjunto de questões seleccionadas para investigação mais aprofundada. São, assim, explorados os processos implicados nesta situação de contacto concreta e os resultados linguísticos decorrentes da mesma, como o bilinguismo ou a diglossia (cf. Cap. 3). Recorrendo a contributos teóricos de áreas associadas e complementares (cf. Cap. 1), foca-se a importância da análise dos domínios em que cada uma das línguas é usada, das redes sociais dos falantes ou das suas atitudes linguísticas. A investigação partiu de uma recolha de dados realizada para o efeito, nas nove ilhas habitadas. As unidades de análise retidas correspondem a uma amostragem de dois grupos sociais distintos: falantes jovens, alunos do ensino secundário (inquiridos por questionário), e falantes adultos cuja profissão implica uma intensa actividade linguística (professores e ‘líderes’, inquiridos por entrevistas semi-dirigidas). Foi usada uma metodologia de recolha o mais rigorosa possível e adoptado o tratamento estatístico de dados (cf. Cap. 2). O confronto dos comportamentos linguísticos e das atitudes das duas gerações inquiridas, com diferentes características (cf. Introdução), forneceu importantes informações sobre a dinâmica linguística da sociedade cabo-verdiana, conclusões essas que serão importantes para a definição de orientações no âmbito da política linguística (cf. Cap. 5). É apresentada, como complemento, uma análise exploratória de alguns aspectos sintácticos atestados nas produções dos indivíduos inquiridos com instrução superior (cf. Cap. 4), um contributo, embora modesto, para a definição da variedade padrão do PCV

Validation of methane measurement using headspace-GC-MS and quantification by a stable isotope-labeled internal standard generated in situ.

A previous study has shown the possibility to identify methane (CH4 ) using headspace-GC-MS and quantify it with a stable isotope as internal standard. The main drawback of the GC-MS methods discussed in literature for CH4 measurement is the absence of a specific internal standard necessary to perform quantification. However, it becomes essential to develop a safer method to limit the manipulation of gaseous CH4 and to precisely control the injected amount of gas for spiking and calibration by comparison with external calibration. To avoid the manipulation of a stable isotope-labeled gas, we have chosen to generate a labeled gas as an internal standard in a vial on the basis of the formation of CH4 by the reaction of Grignard reagent methylmagnesium chloride with deuterated water. This method allows precise measurement of CH4 concentrations in gaseous sample as well as in a solid or a liquid sample after a thermodesorption step in a headspace vial. A full accuracy profile validation of this method is then presented.

A measure of rationality and welfare

There is evidence showing that individual behavior often deviates fromthe classical principle of maximization. This evidence raises at least two importantquestions: (i) how severe the deviations are and (ii) which method is the best forextracting relevant information from choice behavior for the purposes of welfare analysis.In this paper we address these two questions by identifying from a foundationalanalysis a new measure of the rationality of individuals that enables the analysis ofindividual welfare in potentially inconsistent subjects, all based on standard revealedpreference data. We call such measure minimal index.

IRM cardiaque: imagerie de référence dans le diagnostic de la myocardite aiguë [Cardiac magnetic resonance in acute myocarditis: a new non-invasive diagnostic gold standard?].

Acute myocarditis was until recently one of the most difficult diagnoses in cardiology. The spectrum of signs and symptoms is very wide, the usual non-invasive tests lack specificity and the myocardial biopsy is only performed in a minority of cases to confirm the diagnosis. Due to its unique ability to directly image myocardial necrosis, fibrosis and oedema, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is now considered the primary tool for noninvasive assessment of patients with suspected myocarditis. CMR is also useful for monitoring disease activity under treatment. Myocarditis has been associated with the development of dilated cardiomyopathy; CMR could play a role in the follow-up of such cases to detect the progression toward a dilatative phenotype. Precise mapping of myocardial lesions with cardiac MRI is invaluable to guide myocardial biopsy and increase its diagnostic yield by improving sensitivity.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

First description of reproductive behavior of the Amazonian damselfly Chalcopteryx rutilans (Rambur) (Odonata, Polythoridae)

Polythoridae comprise a widespread group of species in the New World tropics, but little is known about their behavior or life history. Here, we described the reproductive behavior of Amazonian Chalchopteryx rutilans, using mark-recapture techniques. Males were resident and territorial, though we found disputes (complex flight manoeuvres) to be rare. Trunks (rotting wood) were important to male persistence in sites, as these are the locations preferred by females for oviposition. The mating system of C. rutilans may be comparable to the resource limitation category, described by Conrad & Pritchard (1992), where males cannot control female access to oviposition sites. So, female choice becomes important and apparently, the observed displays (in which males flash the coppery coloration of their hind wings) may be related to attraction of females to territories, as in a lek system.