Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss.

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.

Filtratge de pàgines Web

Filtratge web utilitzant les eines de Microsoft ISA Server 2004, llur implementació, configuració i parametrització, en un escenari de treballdomèstic o de petita empresa.

Genetic structure of Gymnures (genus Hylomys; Erinaceidae) on continental islands of Southeast Asia: Historical effects of fragmentation

Eustatic sea level changes during Pleistocene climatic fluctuations produced several cycles of connection-isolation among continental islands of the Sunda shelf. To explore the potential effects of these fluctuations, we reconstructed a model of the vicariant events that separated these islands, based on bathymetric information. Among many possible scenarios, two opposite phylogenetic patterns of evolution were predicted for terrestrial organisms living in this region: one is based on the classical allopatric speciation mode of evolution, while the other is the outcome of a sequential dispersal colonization of the archipelago. We tested the applicability of these predictions with an analysis of sequence variation of the cytochrome b gene from several taxa of Hylomys. They were sampled throughout SE-Asia and the Sunda islands. High levels of haplotype differentiation characterize the different island taxa. Such levels of differentiation support the existence of several allopatric species, as was suggested by previous allozyme and morphological data. Also in accordance with previous results, the occurrence of two sympatric species from Sumatra is suggested by their strongly divergent haplotypes. One species, Hylomys suillus maxi, is found both on Sumatra and in Peninsular Malaysia, while the other, H. parvus, is endemic to Sumatra. Its closest relative is H. suillus dorsalis from Borneo. Phylogenetic reconstructions also demonstrate the existence of a Sundaic clade composed of all island taxa, as opposed to those from the continent. Although there is no statistical support for either proposed biogeographic model of evolution, we argue that the sequential dispersal scenario is more appropriate to describe the genetic variation found among the Hylomys taxa. However, despite strong differentiation among island haplotypes, the cladistic relationships between some island taxa could not be resolved. We argue that this is evidence of a rapid radiation, suggesting that the separation of the islands may have been perceived as a simultaneous event rather than as a succession of vicariant events. Furthermore, the estimates of divergence times between the haplotypes of these taxa suggest that this radiation may actually have predated the climatic fluctuations of the Pleistocene. Further refinement of the initial palaeogeographic models of evolution are therefore needed to account for these results.

Escenari Client - Servidor Segur

Consisteix en la implementació d¿un escenari segur client - servidor amb un proveïdor d¿identitat i un control d¿accés extern. En concret, s¿hand¿implementar principalment dos components web, el proveïdor de servei i el proveïdor d¿identitat.

Implantació d'una eina de gestió de xarxes i sistemes

A partir d'un escenari d'una organització fictícia organitzada en diverses seus, en la qual els sistemes d'informació són distribuïts per a poder organitzar grups de treball, compartir recursos o comunicar la informació ràpidament, hem justificat la necessitat de disposar d'una eina de gestió.

PICTour : aplicació modular per a la gestió d'imatges geoetiquetades mitjançant serveis en línea independents basada en tecnologia .NET

Aplicació realitzada emprant diverses tecnologies de la plataforma .NET i capaç d'adaptar-se a l'escenari canviant de la web 2.0 i aprofitar les eines que ofereix.

The robustness of the weak selection approximation for the evolution of altruism against strong selection.

The weak selection approximation of population genetics has made possible the analysis of social evolution under a considerable variety of biological scenarios. Despite its extensive usage, the accuracy of weak selection in predicting the emergence of altruism under limited dispersal when selection intensity increases remains unclear. Here, we derive the condition for the spread of an altruistic mutant in the infinite island model of dispersal under a Moran reproductive process and arbitrary strength of selection. The simplicity of the model allows us to compare weak and strong selection regimes analytically. Our results demonstrate that the weak selection approximation is robust to moderate increases in selection intensity and therefore provides a good approximation to understand the invasion of altruism in spatially structured population. In particular, we find that the weak selection approximation is excellent even if selection is very strong, when either migration is much stronger than selection or when patches are large. Importantly, we emphasize that the weak selection approximation provides the ideal condition for the invasion of altruism, and increasing selection intensity will impede the emergence of altruism. We discuss that this should also hold for more complicated life cycles and for culturally transmitted altruism. Using the weak selection approximation is therefore unlikely to miss out on any demographic scenario that lead to the evolution of altruism under limited dispersal.

TFC SIG - cobertura sanitaria en zonas de catástrofe

Comando para trabajar con Geomedia Professional 6.1, que extiende la funcionalidad de la herramienta para adaptarla a un escenario en el cual se ayuda a la gestión de la cobertura sanitaria en zonas de catástrofe, en nuestro caso Haití.

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Research on individual social policy preferences has highlighted a number of socio-structural cleavages as determinants. Studies investigating public opinion on the various redistributive schemes that make up today's welfare states have shown the relevance of class-related factors such as income or education as key explanatory variables (Ferrera 1993; Taylor-Gooby 1995, 1998; and Svallfors 1997). More recent studies, however, have suggested that other factors are also likely to play a role. Among these, the most important are age, gender, and individual values (Armingeon 2006; Deitch 2004; and Roller 2000, 2002). The scenario that emerges from the existing literature is one of multiple intersecting cleavages, but it remains unclear as to what today is the relative weight and specific impact of each of these cleavages.

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Epidemiology of Chagas disease in non endemic countries: the role of international migration

Human infection with the protozoa Trypanosoma cruzi extends through North, Central, and South America, affecting 21 countries. Most human infections in the Western Hemisphere occur through contact with infected bloodsucking insects of the triatomine species. As T. cruzi can be detected in the blood of untreated infected individuals, decades after infection took place; the infection can be also transmitted through blood transfusion and organ transplant, which is considered the second most common mode of transmission for T. cruzi. The third mode of transmission is congenital infection. Economic hardship, political problems, or both, have spurred migration from Chagas endemic countries to developed countries. The main destination of this immigration is Australia, Canada, Spain, and the United States. In fact, human infection through blood or organ transplantation, as well as confirmed or potential cases of congenital infections has been described in Spain and in the United States. Estimates reported here indicates that in Australia in 2005-2006, 1067 of the 65,255 Latin American immigrants (16 per 1000) may be infected with T. cruzi, and in Canada, in 2001, 1218 of the 131,135 immigrants (9 per 1000) whose country of origin was identified may have been also infected. In Spain, a magnet for Latin American immigrants since the 2000, 5125 of 241,866 legal immigrants in 2003 (25 per 1000), could be infected. In the United States, 56,028 to 357,205 of the 7,20 million, legal immigrants (8 to 50 per 1000), depending on the scenario, from the period 1981-2005 may be infected with T. cruzi. On the other hand, 33,193 to 336,097 of the estimated 5,6 million undocumented immigrants in 2000 (6 to 59 per 1000) could be infected. Non endemic countries receiving immigrants from the endemic ones should develop policies to protect organ recipients from T. cruzi infection, prevent tainting the blood supply with T. cruzi, and implement secondary prevention of congenital Chagas disease.

Group A rotavirus genotypes and the ongoing Brazilian experience: a review

Brazil was the first Latin American country to introduce universal group A rotavirus (RV-A) vaccination in March 2006, resulting in a unique epidemiological scenario. Since RV-A first identification in Brazil, 2,691 RV-A-positive stool samples, collected between 1982- 2007, were typed by independent research groups throughout the country. In the pre-vaccination era, 2,492 RV-A-positive samples collected from 1982-2005 were successfully typed, while 199 samples were analyzed from 2006-2007. According to the reviewed studies, there were two important times in the pre-vaccination era: (i) the period from 1982-1995, during which the detection of G5P[8] RV-A, in addition to the classical genotypes G1-4, challenged vaccine development programs; and (ii) the period from 1996-2005, during which genotype G9P[8] emerged, following a global trend. The rate of G2P[4] RV-A detection decreased from 26% (173/653) during 1982-1995 to 2% (43/1,839) during 1996-2005. The overall detection rate of RV-A genotypes from 1982-2005 was as follows: 43% (n = 1,079) G1P[8]/G1P[not typed (NT)]; 20% (n = 488) G9P[8]/G9P[NT]; 9% (n = 216) G2P[4]/G2P[NT]; 6% (n = 151) G3P[8]/G3P[NT]; 4% (n = 103) G4P[8]/G4P[NT]; and 4% (n = 94) G5P[8]/G5P[NT]. Mixed infections accounted for 189 (7%) of the positive samples, while atypical G/P combinations or other genotypes, including G6, G8, G10 and G12, were identified in 172 (7%) samples. The initial surveillance studies carried out in several Brazilian states with RV-A-positive samples collected in 2006 and 2007 show a predominance of G2P[4] strains (148/199 or 74%). Herein, we review RV-A typing studies carried out since the 1980s in Brazil, highlighting the dynamics of RV-A strain circulation profiles before and early after universal use of RV-A vaccine in Brazil.

Infección por virus pandémico (H1N1) 2009 en Andalucía

In April 2009, in response to the WHO's alert due to the existence of human infection cases with a new AH1N1 influenza virus, known as swine flu, Andalusian Health Authorities trigger an specific action plan. The surveillance actions developped provided us with appropriate clinical, epidemiological and virological characteristics of the disease. During the first few days, contingency plans were set up based on epidemiological surveillance and outbreak control measures were adopted through early alert and rapid response systems. After phase 6 was declared, influenza sentinel and severe cases surveillance were used in order to plan healthcare services, to reduce transmission and to identify and protect the most vulnerable population groups. Behaviour of pandemic influenza in Andalusia was similar to that observed in the rest of the world. Atack rate was similar to a seasonal flu and the peak was reached at the 46th/2009 week. Most of them were mild cases and affected particularly to young people. The average age of hospitalised patients was 32. Prior pulmonary disease, smoking and morbid obesity (BMI>40) were the most common pathologies and risk factors in severe cases. An impact scenario of pandemic wave in Andalusia, with an expected attack rate from 2 to 5%, was prepared considering watt observed in the southern hemisphere. Characteristics of the epidemic concerning its extent, severity and mortality rate were adjusted to this scenario.

Virtual library, a real library?

Les possibilitats ofertes per la virtualitat tenen una gran importància en l'esfera educativa i en tots els aspectes referents a ella. Evidentment, les biblioteques i els centres de documentació no són estranys a aquest nou ambient virtual facilitat pel canvi social, econòmic i, sobretot, tecnològic que ha permès que els bibliotecaris-documentalistes accedeixin a gran quantitat d'informació i de documentació, permetent que actuïn com a agents intermediaris entre aquesta nova situació i l'ús que se'n poden fer pels diversos tipus d'usuaris.

Virtual Library Services for a Virtual University : User-Oriented Virtual Sites in an Open Library

La llegada de las tecnologías de la información, y su uso cada vez mayor y generalizado que se está haciendo de ellas, ha permitido para que una nueva situación aparezca que, a su vez, ha originado - de hecho, que ha precipitado - una serie de cambios de gran importancia en todos los niveles, pero especialmente en los niveles sociales, económicos y culturales. Este nueva escena ha tenido una gran influencia en el entorno pedagógico. De hecho, la aparición de nuevos modelos educativos como resultado de este cambio ha estado sucediendo de una manera continuada e ininterrumpida durante la década pasada. Estos cambios recientes en los sistemas actuales de enseñanza y de aprendizaje han significado un aumento y un cambio en el tipo de demandas hechas desde las bibliotecas y los centros de documentación.